Forecast: I am expecting Bund to continue its uptrend going forward next 2 weeks. Currently, this week weekly candle close as an inside bar, suggesting consolidation period. Bund will either expand this coming week or next week.
First: Expansion next week, How to get in?
Trade entry: Long the Daily demand zone, with stop below
Confirmation: Reclaim last week...
Some techniques i like to employed into my trading is:
- Creating a range using Last week Price Action
- Creating a range using Monday Price Action
Key levels Identified:
1) Last Week High
2) Weekly Open
3) H4 Resistance turns support
4) Monday High
The bund has been in a smooth uptrend since Oct 2018.
The bias to enter a trade is to the long.
Enter on a retracement to the past swing high and monthly R1 pivot.
Go long for the R4 pivot.
Stop is just below the swing low
Risk Reward = 2,5
You can use the 50 MAV as a trailing stop loss.
The bund is in an uptrend ( all 3 MAV moving up )
Look to enter with the trend on a pull back to an area of value
1. Prior Swing high now acting as support
2. Fib .5 - .618 retracement
3. 50 MAV acting as dynamic resistance.
Stop is at the prior swing low.
IF you wish to have a target you can set at the midpoint of the fib extensions .272 and .618
I have a bearish bias on Bund, since it has hit monthly supply above.
On the daily, we have a new supply zone in purple with good confluence of a HVN. On the H4, a nice channel return to the daily supply zone.
If price goes above 167.595, I am wrong on this trade.
Ahead of the ECB decision the German 10yr bund is at an inflection point with the 166.66 breakout point and channel support being tested. This goes without saying, a break below is bearish, but a pivot from here keeps the bullish momentum alive. RSI was divergent and signaled the turn two weeks ago, but with daily RSI back to mid range, it could go either way now.
TP1 161.9 (1:~2)
TP2 161.6 (1:~2.5/3)
Optional TP3 ~161.2 (1:~3.5/4)
4/12/18 price action has extended well past its upper true range value and touched overhead resistance + upper weekly true range. Short from here and aim for minimum 1:2 RR. Move SL down to initial position when TP1 hit, then aim for just before next support @ 161.515. If you want to...