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Technical Analysis

Gold Is Not Overextended — This Is Wyckoff Markup in ProgressXAUUSD (H1) — MARKET ANALYSIS 1. Market Structure (Wyckoff Context) Gold has clearly completed a Wyckoff accumulation cycle and is now operating inside a confirmed Markup Phase. Phase A: Selling pressure was absorbed, volatility expanded, and downside momentum was halted. Phase B: Price transitioned into a broad consolidation, where supply was systematically absorbed while holding above key moving averages. ST in Phase B: The final liquidity test confirmed strong demand. Current State: Price has broken out decisively and is now in trend continuation, not distribution. This structure validates that the current rally is institutionally driven, not a retail spike. 2. Trend & Moving Averages Price is trading well above EMA34 and EMA89, both sloping upward. Pullbacks remain shallow and corrective → no structural damage. Each retracement forms higher lows, confirming trend strength. As long as price remains above the rising EMA cluster, trend control stays with buyers. 3. Price Action Behavior Strong impulsive legs followed by brief consolidations. No aggressive rejection candles at highs → buyers remain active. The current pause near 4,480–4,500 is bullish digestion, not exhaustion. This is classic trend continuation behavior, where the market pauses to absorb supply before the next expansion. 4. Key Levels Immediate Support: 4,350 – 4,380 (previous resistance turned support) Structural Support: 4,260 – 4,280 Upside Target Zone: 4,530 – 4,560 A controlled pullback into support followed by continuation would be the highest-probability scenario. 5. Forward Scenario (Preferred) Short-term consolidation or shallow pullback Higher low formation above 4,380 Continuation toward 4,530+, as projected on the chart Only a decisive breakdown below 4,260 would invalidate the bullish structure — currently low probability. Conclusion Gold is not peaking it is executing a textbook Wyckoff markup phase. The trend remains clean, momentum is controlled, and pullbacks are opportunities, not warnings.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by RexTraderSignal
USDJPY: Sell the Rally, Chasing Is a Mistake?Hello traders, For USDJPY, I am currently leaning more toward a short-term BEARISH scenario. The key reason comes from Japan’s side: officials have repeatedly signaled their dissatisfaction with one-sided FX moves and left the door open for possible action if the yen weakens excessively. This keeps the market cautious about intervention risk , causing bullish momentum on USDJPY to lose traction. Looking at the chart, after a strong rally, price is now entering a cooling and consolidation phase , with repeated pullbacks being sold into . This is a typical corrective behavior: buyers are no longer pushing smoothly, while sellers step in aggressively whenever price rebounds into nearby resistance. The scenario I favor is SELL on rallies. Price may attempt another push toward the upper resistance area, but is likely to roll over and decline toward the nearest support . If selling pressure strengthens, the downside move could extend further before the market finds balance again. In summary, with news-driven psychological pressure weighing on buyers , I prefer to patiently wait for pullbacks to sell rather than chase price higher. The beauty of the market is simple: when you stay disciplined and wait for the right moment, the best opportunities often appear after periods of tight consolidation and hesitation.
Short
by Paradise_Noir
14
$SPY & $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Dec 24, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY & SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Dec 24, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving Headlines • Holiday-thinned session: Early close dynamics and reduced liquidity can exaggerate moves. • Labor check-in only: Jobless claims is the sole macro print before markets wind down for Christmas. 📊 Key Data & Events (ET) 8 30 AM • Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 20): 225,000 ⚠️ Disclaimer: For informational use only — not financial advice. 📌 #SPY #SPX #JoblessClaims #markets #trading #macro #stocks
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
LINKUSDT – Weekly TimeframePrice is currently reacting at a major support zone that has been respected multiple times in the past. This area previously acted as both support and resistance, making it a key decision point for the market. Market structure Higher timeframe structure is still correcting Price is testing a previous support area Momentum has slowed down, showing hesitation Scenario 1 – Support holds (bullish): If buyers step in and this support holds, we could see a relief move towards the next resistance zone, where price was previously rejected. Scenario 2 – Support fails (bearish): If this support breaks with a strong close, price may continue towards the lower support zone, which acted as a base earlier in the structure. Conclusion: Price is at a make-or-break area. Waiting for confirmation is safer than anticipating the move. Do you expect a bounce from support or a breakdown continuation? MrC
by Mrctradinglab
BTCUSDT - Range-Bound at $87KExecutive Summary BINANCE:BTCUSDT is trading at approximately $87,740 after a turbulent 2025 that saw Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $126,272 in October before correcting 30%. The price is now stuck in a tight consolidation range between $85,000 support and $90,000 resistance. While short-term metrics show slight recovery (+1.5% weekly, +3.53% monthly), the bigger picture is concerning: YTD performance is -6.25%, and multiple on-chain indicators suggest we may be entering a late-cycle distribution phase with bear market risk in early 2026. BIAS: NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH - Bullish Potential with Bearish Undertones The short-term structure allows for bullish breakout, but the weight of on-chain evidence and macro factors lean bearish for Q1 2026. Trade the range, respect the levels. Current Market Context - December 23, 2025 Bitcoin finds itself at a critical juncture: Current Price: $87,825.99 (-0.99% on the day) Day's Range: $86,601.90 - $88,940.00 52-Week Range: $74,508.00 - $126,199.63 All-Time High: $126,272.76 (October 6, 2025) Volume: 9.22K (below 30D average of 17.23K) Down 30.06% from ATH Performance Metrics - MIXED: 1 Week: +1.50% (Green) 1 Month: +3.53% (Green) 3 Months: -21.67% (Red) 6 Months: -18.27% (Red) YTD: -6.25% (Red) 1 Year: -7.83% (Red) The short-term green metrics mask a deeply concerning longer-term picture. Bitcoin is underperforming its 2024 and 2023 seasonal patterns significantly. THE WARNING SIGNS - 5 Charts Suggest Bear Market Risk Multiple on-chain and market-structure indicators are flashing caution: 1. Bitcoin's Apparent Demand Growth Is Rolling Over Demand growth slowing after multiple waves earlier in the cycle While price remained elevated through 2025, demand failed to make new highs This divergence indicates price strength relied more on momentum and leverage than fresh spot buying When demand growth flattens while price stays high, markets shift from accumulation to distribution This often marks early stages of a bear market or long consolidation 2. US Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows Are Losing Momentum ETFs have been the strongest source of structural demand this cycle In 2024, ETF inflows accelerated steadily into year-end Q4 2025 shows inflows flattening and, in some periods, declining ETFs represent long-term capital, not short-term trading When ETF demand slows while price remains high, large buyers are stepping back Without sustained institutional inflows, Bitcoin becomes more vulnerable to derivatives-driven volatility 3. Dolphin Wallets (100-1,000 BTC) Are Reducing Exposure "Dolphins" are typically sophisticated investors and funds Sharp decline in dolphin holdings on a one-year basis Similar behavior appeared in late 2021 and early 2022, ahead of deeper drawdowns This points to risk reduction by experienced holders When this cohort distributes while price remains elevated, it reflects expectations of lower returns ahead 4. Funding Rates Are Trending Lower Across Exchanges Funding rates measure cost to hold leveraged positions Clear downward trend across major exchanges Indicates waning demand for leverage even as price remains relatively high In bull markets, strong rallies are supported by rising funding and persistent long demand Falling funding rates suggest traders are less confident and less willing to pay to stay long This environment often precedes choppy price action or broader trend reversals 5. Bitcoin Broke Below the 365-Day Moving Average The 365-day MA historically separates bull markets from bear markets Bitcoin has now crossed below this level for the first sustained period since early 2022 Previous macro-driven sell-offs in 2024 and early 2025 tested this level but failed to close below it A sustained break signals a shift in long-term momentum Increases probability that rallies will face stronger resistance CRITICAL: None of these signals confirms a full bear market alone. Together, they suggest rising downside risk and weakening support. How Low Could Bitcoin Go? If bear market develops: Bitcoin's realized price is currently near $56,000 (average cost basis of all holders) In prior bear markets, Bitcoin often bottomed near or slightly below this level This doesn't mean Bitcoin must fall to $56,000 But in a full bear scenario, long-term buyers historically step in closer to that zone Wide range of outcomes possible, including prolonged sideways movement rather than sharp decline THE BULL CASE - Wall Street Is Coming Despite the warning signs, major bullish catalysts are emerging: JPMorgan Exploring Crypto Trading Largest US bank considering crypto trading services for institutional clients Assessing spot and derivatives trading products Would represent major evolution for JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has been critical of Bitcoin but bank is expanding blockchain activity In May, Dimon said JPMorgan would allow clients to buy Bitcoin Bank launched tokenized money-market fund (MONY) on Ethereum with $100M initial capital Arranged short-term bond for Galaxy Digital on Solana blockchain Wall Street's Broader Embrace Morgan Stanley offering crypto trading on E*Trade platform (H1 2026) Charles Schwab ($11.6 trillion firm) launching Bitcoin trading (H1 2026) 20% of Schwab clients already own crypto Growing institutional demand as regulatory frameworks clarify Trump administration pledged to make America "crypto capital of the world" JPMorgan Analysts' Price Target JPMorgan analysts projected Bitcoin could climb to $170,000 within 6-12 months Contingent on perpetual futures deleveraging completing Global crypto market valued at ~$3.1 trillion Bitcoin accounts for ~$1.8 trillion Projected to reach new ATH next year as adoption grows Arizona Crypto-Friendly Legislation Senator Wendy Rogers proposed bills to exempt virtual currency from taxation SB 1044: Exempt crypto from state taxation SB 1045: Bar cities/counties from taxing blockchain nodes SCR 1003: Amend constitution to exclude crypto from property tax Arizona already has digital asset reserve law Other states (New Hampshire, Texas) have similar laws Technical Structure Analysis Price Action Overview - 4 Hour Timeframe The chart shows a clear consolidation structure: Current Range: MAJOR RESISTANCE: $89,000-$90,500 zone SUPPORT: $86,600-$87,200 zone Price oscillating between these levels Multiple tests of both zones without sustained follow-through Neither bulls nor bears have full control Equilibrium state - buyers step in near support, sellers defend resistance Recent Price Action: Sharp rejection from ~$90,500 area Price dropped to current ~$87,740 level Testing mid-range support Two scenarios visible on chart: Bullish: Break above resistance toward $89,000+ Bearish: Break below support toward $85,000 Key Observations: Volume below 30-day average (9.22K vs 17.23K) - thin liquidity Range-bound trading suggests indecision Breakout direction will determine next major move Holiday period typically sees lower liquidity, amplifying moves Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Levels: $88,940 - Day's high / immediate resistance $89,000-$90,500 - MAJOR RESISTANCE ZONE $92,000-$93,000 - Secondary resistance (breakout target) $95,000 - Psychological level $100,000 - Major psychological barrier $126,272 - All-time high (October 2025) Support Levels: $87,200 - Immediate support $86,600-$87,000 - MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE $85,000 - Critical support (strong demand in early December) $82,000-$83,000 - Secondary support $74,508 - 52-week low $56,000 - Realized price (bear market bottom zone) Chart Pattern Analysis Current structure shows a consolidation rectangle : Clear horizontal support at $86,600-$87,200 Clear horizontal resistance at $89,000-$90,500 Price compressing within this range Breakout imminent - direction TBD Volume declining during consolidation (typical) Watch for volume spike on breakout for confirmation Moving Average Analysis Price trading BELOW 365-day moving average - bearish signal This is first sustained break below 365 MA since early 2022 Short-term MAs may be providing temporary support Long-term trend structure has weakened significantly Rallies likely to face resistance at declining MAs Volume Analysis Current volume: 9.22K (significantly below 30D average of 17.23K) Thin liquidity environment Low volume consolidation typical before breakouts Holiday period reducing participation Watch for volume confirmation on any breakout Low volume moves are less reliable Market Structure Assessment Current State: Range-bound with thin liquidity High sensitivity to leverage-driven moves Retail participation appears cautious Institutional flows have slowed Selling pressure primarily retail-driven from leveraged and short-term participants US spot Bitcoin ETF holdings declined less than 5% despite 30%+ drawdown - institutions holding Expert Analysis - Ray Youssef (NoOnes CEO): "BTC's upside is now tied to liquidity expansion, sovereign policy clarity, and risk sentiment, rather than to monetary debasement alone." "From a market-structure perspective, Bitcoin remains stuck in a compressing, range-bound action bout." Bitcoin has failed to deliver on its hedge narrative in 2025, demonstrating heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic factors rather than trading like digital gold. SCENARIO ANALYSIS BULLISH SCENARIO - Breakout Above $90,000 Trigger Conditions: Daily close above $90,500 with volume ETF inflows resume/accelerate JPMorgan or other major bank announces crypto trading launch Positive regulatory news Break above 365-day MA Price Targets if Bullish: Target 1: $92,000-$93,000 - First resistance above range Target 2: $95,000 - Psychological level Target 3: $100,000 - Major psychological barrier Extended: $170,000 (JPMorgan analyst target for 2026) Bullish Catalysts: JPMorgan crypto trading launch Morgan Stanley E*Trade crypto (H1 2026) Charles Schwab Bitcoin trading (H1 2026) Arizona crypto tax exemption bills Trump administration pro-crypto policies ETF inflow recovery Institutional adoption acceleration BEARISH SCENARIO - Breakdown Below $85,000 Trigger Conditions: Daily close below $85,000 ETF outflows accelerate Funding rates continue declining Dolphin wallets continue distributing Break below 365-day MA confirmed Macro risk-off event Price Targets if Bearish: Target 1: $82,000-$83,000 - Secondary support Target 2: $74,508 - 52-week low Target 3: $65,000-$70,000 - Major support zone Bear Market Bottom: $56,000 area (realized price) Bearish Risks: 5 on-chain indicators warning of bear market Below 365-day MA for first time since 2022 Demand growth rolling over ETF inflows losing momentum Dolphin wallets reducing exposure Funding rates trending lower YTD performance negative (-6.25%) 30% down from ATH NEUTRAL SCENARIO - Continued Range Trading Most likely short-term outcome: Price continues oscillating between $85,000-$90,000 Low volume holiday trading Wait for January 2026 for directional clarity Institutions reassess positions in new year Watch for ETF flow data in early January MY ASSESSMENT - NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH The evidence is genuinely mixed, but the weight leans bearish: Bearish Factors (Dominant): 5 on-chain indicators warning of distribution phase Below 365-day MA - historically bearish Demand growth diverging from price ETF inflows slowing Sophisticated holders (dolphins) reducing exposure Funding rates declining YTD, 3M, 6M, 1Y all negative 30% down from ATH with no recovery momentum Bullish Factors (Secondary): Wall Street adoption accelerating (JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Schwab) Pro-crypto regulatory environment under Trump Arizona tax exemption bills JPMorgan $170K price target Institutions holding ETF positions despite drawdown Short-term metrics slightly positive My Stance: NEUTRAL with Bearish Lean I believe the path of least resistance is sideways to down in Q1 2026. The on-chain data is too concerning to ignore. However, Wall Street adoption could provide a floor and eventually drive recovery. Strategy: Trade the range - buy support, sell resistance Don't get caught in the middle Respect $85,000 as critical support Respect $90,000 as critical resistance Wait for breakout confirmation before directional bets Reduce position size given uncertainty Trade Framework Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout Trade Entry Conditions: 4H candle closes above $90,500 Volume exceeds recent average ETF inflows positive Trade Parameters: Entry: $90,500-$91,000 on confirmed breakout Stop Loss: $88,000 below recent support Target 1: $93,000 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: $95,000 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.8) Target 3: $100,000 (Extended) Scenario 2: Range Trade - Buy Support Entry Conditions: Price tests $86,600-$87,200 support zone Bullish rejection candle Volume spike on bounce Trade Parameters: Entry: $86,800-$87,200 at support Stop Loss: $85,500 below support zone Target 1: $89,000 (Risk-Reward ~1:1.5) Target 2: $90,500 (Risk-Reward ~1:2.5) Scale out at resistance Scenario 3: Bearish Breakdown Trade Entry Conditions: 4H candle closes below $85,000 Volume confirmation ETF outflows accelerating Trade Parameters: Entry: $84,500-$85,000 on confirmed breakdown Stop Loss: $87,500 above recent support Target 1: $82,000 (Risk-Reward ~1:1) Target 2: $78,000 (Risk-Reward ~1:2.5) Target 3: $74,500 (52-week low) Risk Management Guidelines Position sizing: 1-2% max risk per trade (reduced due to uncertainty) Thin liquidity = amplified moves - use wider stops Holiday period trading - expect erratic price action Watch ETF flow data closely Monitor on-chain metrics for trend confirmation Don't fight the range - trade within it Scale out at targets rather than all-or-nothing Be prepared for extended consolidation Invalidation Levels Bullish thesis invalidated if: Price closes below $85,000 on daily timeframe ETF outflows accelerate significantly Funding rates go deeply negative Dolphin distribution accelerates Break below 52-week low ($74,508) Bearish thesis invalidated if: Price closes above $93,000 with volume ETF inflows surge Reclaim 365-day moving average JPMorgan announces crypto trading launch Major institutional adoption news Conclusion BINANCE:BTCUSDT is at a critical juncture. After hitting an all-time high of $126,272 in October 2025, Bitcoin has corrected 30% and is now stuck in a consolidation range between $85,000 and $90,000. The Concerning Data: 5 on-chain indicators warning of potential bear market in 2026 Below 365-day MA for first time since 2022 Demand growth diverging from price ETF inflows losing momentum Sophisticated holders reducing exposure YTD: -6.25%, 3M: -21.67%, 6M: -18.27% The Hopeful Data: JPMorgan exploring crypto trading Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab launching crypto in H1 2026 Arizona crypto tax exemption bills JPMorgan analysts target $170,000 Institutions holding ETF positions despite drawdown Key Levels: $90,000-$90,500 - MAJOR RESISTANCE (breakout level) $86,600-$87,200 - MAJOR SUPPORT (current test) $85,000 - CRITICAL SUPPORT (must hold) $70,000 - Realized price (bear market bottom zone) The Setup: Bitcoin is range-bound with thin liquidity. The on-chain data suggests we may be in a late-cycle distribution phase with bear market risk in early 2026. However, Wall Street adoption is accelerating, which could provide a floor. Strategy: Trade the range - don't predict the breakout Buy $86,600-$87,200 support with stops below $85,000 Sell $89,000-$90,500 resistance Wait for confirmed breakout before directional bets Reduce position size given mixed signals Watch January 2026 for clarity The market is at a decision point. Let price action guide you, not predictions.
by officialjackofalltrades
BNB Approaching Key Support – Potential Bounce SetupBNB is moving toward a major support zone between $800 – $820. This area has historically served as a demand zone, and we're watching for bullish price action or a potential reversal signal around this level. If support holds, there's a strong chance for price rotation back toward the mid-range of the broader structure. 💡 Trade Setup Idea: Entry Zone: $800 – $820 (Support) Take Profit Targets: $890 / $976 / $1168 Stop Loss: $742 (below structure) A bounce from this level could offer a solid risk-reward setup. Always wait for confirmation (e.g. bullish engulfing, volume spike, or momentum shift) before entering. Manage your risk carefully. #BNB #Crypto #BinanceCoin #TradingView #CryptoTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #SupportAndResistance #PriceAction
Long
by Richtv_official
ETH/USD is on the Edge...🔹 MARKET BRIEFING – ETH/USD (1H) Market State: – Ethereum is currently trading within a descending channel, with price testing the lower boundary of the demand zone. There’s a clear structure setting up for a potential downside move toward the lower targets. Key Levels: – Supply Zone: ~3,170 – 3,180 – Demand Zone (Support): ~3,060 – 3,070 – Target 1 (TP1): ~3,014 – Target 2 (TP2): ~2,913 Next Move: – A rejection at the supply zone may trigger a strong downside move toward the demand zone, with targets set for 3,014 and 2,913. If the demand zone holds, ETH/USD could rebound to test the upper boundary of the descending channel.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDShort
by Matthew_TradeRFX
1
Bitcoin at a Structural Inflection PointBINANCE:BTCUSDT Bitcoin — Global Structure On the 3M timeframe, Bitcoin has formed and confirmed an ascending parallel channel, reacting strongly from its lower boundary and moving toward the opposite side of the structure. Subsequently, price has remained near the upper boundary of the channel for almost two years. Such prolonged behavior near resistance may indicate impulse exhaustion within the current structure rather than acceleration. This perspective is supported by wave analysis on the 1W timeframe. Considering market fractality and the formation of nested structures, the current movement aligns with the completion of an impulsive Cycle I wave of a higher degree. For the cycle to progress, the market may logically transition into a corrective phase (Cycle II). In this scenario, a move outside the parallel channel followed by a decline toward the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone (60–70k) appears technically justified. This area is further reinforced by visible volume concentration. It is also worth noting that the Fibonacci extension measured from the prior impulse shows price reaching the 1.618 level, a zone that often acts as a natural termination point for impulsive waves. Alternatively, the current structure may suggest that the market is not completing Cycle I, but rather developing a larger wave (III). In that case, Bitcoin would likely maintain strength and continue moving within the channel without a deep corrective phase. Overall, the current structure presents two primary scenarios, with further development depending on price reaction at the channel boundaries and key structural levels.
by chiefdaniels
BTC Is Trapped — The Next Move Won’t Be SmallBTCUSD (H4) — Technical & Macro Analysis 1) Market Structure - Bitcoin is currently trading inside a well-defined range / accumulation zone, capped by a strong Resistance Zone above and supported by a clear Support Zone below. - Price is still below EMA34 and EMA89, meaning short-term momentum remains neutral-to-weak until these levels are reclaimed. - Overall structure confirms a sideways market, not a confirmed trend yet. 2) Key Technical Levels - Key Resistance / Pivot: 88,000 – 89,400 → Reclaiming this zone is required to shift momentum bullish. - Mid-range target: 90,000 – 92,000 - Major Resistance (Range High): 94,000 – 95,000 - Local Support: 85,000 – 86,000 - Critical Support (Range Low): 82,000 – 83,000 3) Price Behavior - Failure to hold above the EMAs shows buyers are still cautious. - However, repeated defense of the 85k–86k zone suggests accumulation rather than distribution. - This is classic range behavior: build liquidity → fake moves → real breakout later . 4) Scenarios Ahead Primary Scenario (Preferred): Sideways Accumulation → Push Higher - Condition: Price holds above 85k–86k and reclaims 88k–89.4k. - Target path: 90k–92k → 94k–95k. Alternative Scenario: Rejection → Retest Support - If BTC is rejected again at the EMA resistance zone, price may revisit 85k–86k, or deeper toward 82k–83k. Invalidation: A clean breakdown below 82k–83k would invalidate the range structure and open downside risk. 5) Macro Context - Fed policy uncertainty keeps risk appetite cautious. - High bond yields & strong USD continue to pressure risk assets. - Major US data (CPI, NFP, PCE) often trigger volatility, but price typically compresses before these events. - Liquidity conditions favor accumulation and consolidation, not impulsive trends. Summary BTC remains in a clear consolidation phase. Until a strong breakout occurs, the market should be traded as a range with patience, confirmation, and strict risk management. What do you think about BTC at this key zone?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
EUR/USD Isn’t Crashing by AccidentEUR/USD – H1 Technical & Macro Breakdown Technical Structure - EUR/USD is currently trading in a clear short-term downtrend, defined by a descending trendline and repeated failures to reclaim the 34 & 89 EMAs. Each rebound attempt has been capped below dynamic resistance, confirming that sellers remain in control. - Price has now rotated back into a well-defined support zone, where short-term buyers are attempting to defend. However, this is defensive buying, not trend reversal behavior. As long as price remains below the descending trendline and below the EMA cluster, any bounce should be treated as a corrective pullback, not a bullish shift. Key technical logic: - Lower highs + lower lows → bearish structure intact - EMAs acting as dynamic resistance → trend pressure remains downward - Current support zone → potential short-term bounce, but not confirmation A sustained break back above the trendline and EMA alignment would be required to neutralize downside risk. Until then, the structure favors continuation pressure. Macro Drivers US Dollar Strength (Primary Driver) Recent market positioning reflects renewed demand for USD as expectations remain firm that US monetary policy will stay restrictive for longer. Even without new rate hikes, the Fed’s stance of “higher for longer” continues to support the dollar. Yield Differential Pressure US Treasury yields remain elevated relative to European yields. This yield spread continues to pull capital toward USD-denominated assets, pressuring EUR/USD lower. Eurozone Growth Concerns Markets remain cautious on the Eurozone outlook, with weak growth momentum and fragile demand. This limits EUR upside and makes the currency vulnerable whenever USD demand increases. Risk Sentiment Rotation Whenever global risk sentiment turns cautious, EUR tends to underperform against USD. The current environment favors defensive positioning, benefiting the dollar over risk-sensitive currencies. Forward Expectations Short-term: A technical bounce from support is possible, but likely corrective. Bias: Bearish while below trendline & EMAs. Invalidation: Only a clean break and acceptance above resistance would shift the narrative. Key Takeaway This is not panic selling. This is macro pressure aligning with technical structure. EUR/USD is being repriced lower because the dollar has the advantage — both technically and fundamentally. Until that balance changes, rebounds are opportunities for structure, not signals of reversal.
Long
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
EURUSD Is Quiet — But This Structure Signals the Next MoveEURUSD – H1 | Technical + Macro Analysis Technical Structure Price has broken the descending trendline and is now stabilizing above the key support zone. The market is forming higher lows, signaling selling pressure is weakening. Price is holding near the EMA cluster, suggesting a transition from correction to accumulation. Upside targets sit at the previous supply zone, where a range breakout could accelerate. Macro Context (EUR vs USD) USD momentum is fading as markets price in slower US growth and future rate cuts. ECB policy remains restrictive relative to growth risks, helping stabilize EUR. Risk sentiment has improved slightly, reducing defensive USD demand. Outlook Primary scenario: Consolidation above support → gradual push toward resistance. Invalidation: Clean break below the support zone would reopen downside risk. Bottom Line EURUSD is no longer trending down it’s building a base. If macro pressure on USD continues, this structure favors a controlled upside rotation, not a breakdown.
Long
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
this ETH Structure Usually Breaks Higher — Most Traders Miss ItETH/USD – H1 | Technical Structure ETH is holding firmly above the key support zone and both EMA 34 & EMA 89, confirming trend control by buyers. Recent pullbacks are shallow and corrective, forming higher lows → classic bullish continuation behavior. Price is compressing below the next resistance around 3,100, indicating energy build-up rather than distribution. As long as support holds, the structure favors step-by-step expansion, not reversal. EMA 34 & EMA 89 remain below price, acting as dynamic support. Macro Context Risk appetite remains supported as markets price in softer USD conditions and future Fed easing. ETH benefits from capital rotation into majors, especially when BTC stabilizes. No major macro headwinds at the moment → momentum stays with trend-following buyers. Outlook Primary scenario: Hold above support → consolidation → push toward 3,100+. Invalidation: Only a clean breakdown below the support zone would delay the bullish continuation. Bottom Line ETH is not overextended it’s absorbing liquidity above support. This structure typically resolves higher, not sideways or lower.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
Bitcoin Isn’t Weak — It’s Building the Break That Traps BTC / USD – H4 ANALYSIS Market Structure BTC is still locked inside a broad high-liquidity range, not in a downtrend. Multiple failed breakdowns from the support zone confirm buyers are defending aggressively. Price is compressing back toward the range mid–upper area → classic re-accumulation behavior. EMA Behavior EMA 34 & EMA 89 are flattening, not sharply sloping down. This indicates balance → absorption, not trend reversal. Strong moves usually start after EMAs go flat, not when they’re trending. Liquidity Context Current price action is designed to shake both early longs and late shorts. Liquidity is concentrated: Above range highs (buy stops) Below range lows (sell stops) Market is preparing for expansion, not distribution. Macro Alignment No macro shock forcing risk-off right now. BTC is behaving independently → capital rotation + positioning phase. This favors range → expansion, not collapse. Expectation Short-term: continued choppy movement inside the box. Medium-term: range high sweep → breakout attempt toward the upper resistance zone. Only a clean, high-volume breakdown below support would invalidate this structure.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
Gold Isn’t Chasing Price — It’s Following a Macro Cycle GOLD (XAUUSD) – H1 | Cycle-Based + Macro Analysis 1. Market Cycle Structure Gold is moving inside a clean ascending channel, confirming a healthy bull cycle, not an exhaustion phase. Each impulse leg is followed by controlled pullbacks that stay above prior structure. No aggressive rejection at highs → acceptance near the upper channel, which is bullish. This is a trend-continuation cycle, not a blow-off top. 2. EMA Behavior (Trend Validation) EMA 34 & EMA 89 are stacked bullish and sloping upward. Price consistently reclaims EMA 34 after shallow pullbacks. This indicates institutional trend participation, not retail-driven spikes. ➡️ As long as price holds above EMA 34 on pullbacks, the cycle remains intact. 3. Price Action Logic (Cycle Progression) The current structure shows: Impulse → flag → impulse No lower low printed inside the channel Pullbacks are time-based, not price-based (sideways instead of deep drops) This behavior typically precedes: An expansion leg toward the upper channel boundary → new ATH attempt 4. Macro Context (Why Gold Keeps Rising) Gold’s cycle is supported by macro tailwinds, not speculation: Real yields remain under pressure → bullish for non-yielding assets Central banks continue net gold accumulation USD strength is no longer suppressing gold aggressively Risk hedging demand remains elevated globally ➡️ This is structural demand, not short-term fear buying. 5. Outlook & Scenario Primary Scenario (High Probability): Shallow consolidation near current highs Brief pullback toward channel midline / EMA support Continuation breakout toward the upper channel → new ATH zone Invalidation: Only a clean break and hold below the channel + EMA 89 would break the cycle Until then, dips are buy-the-structure, not sell signals 🧠 Final Takeaway Gold is not overextended. It is cycling higher in a controlled institutional trend, and price behavior strongly suggests new highs are a matter of timing, not direction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Raphael_TraderGOLD
Bitcoin Isn’t BreakingBTCUSD (H1) — Focused Analysis Market Structure BTC remains in a clear range-bound market. Price is rotating between strong support and resistance, not forming a trend. The prior downtrend has transitioned into accumulation / balance. Key Zones Resistance Zone: ~90,500 Support Zone: ~85,200 Current Price: Mid–upper range → liquidity-driven moves dominate. Liquidity Context The highlighted area is a high-liquidity price range. Price is designed to sweep both sides: Push up to resistance → trap longs Flush to support → trap shorts This environment favors range trading, not breakout chasing. Scenarios Primary Scenario (High Probability): Continued sideways oscillation inside the range. Expect fake breakouts and sharp reversals. Breakout Scenario (Lower Probability): Only valid with a strong close above 90,500 + volume expansion. Until then, upside spikes are likely liquidity grabs. Summary Bitcoin is not trending it’s absorbing orders. Patience is the edge. Wait for confirmation, or trade the range with discipline.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Gold_Dominator
GBPUSD Isn’t Trending — It’s Loading Liquidity for BreaKGBPUSD – H1 Technical Analysis Market Structure: GBPUSD is currently trading inside a well-defined moving range, not a trend. Price is rotating cleanly between support and resistance, indicating liquidity-building behavior rather than directional commitment. Key Zones: Resistance Zone: ~1.3450–1.3460 Support Zone: ~1.3315–1.3330 Price Action Insight: Repeated rejections from both extremes confirm a range-bound environment. Recent higher low inside the range suggests short-term bullish momentum, but still within consolidation. No strong impulsive breakout candle → market is waiting for confirmation. Primary Scenario: Price continues to oscillate inside the range, potentially pushing toward the upper resistance zone to test sell-side liquidity before a decision point. Alternative Scenario: A failure near resistance could send price back toward range support for another liquidity sweep. Conclusion: GBPUSD is not ready to trend yet. Until a clean breakout with acceptance occurs, the market favors range trading and patience, not aggression.
Long
by Gold_Dominator
Gold Is Not Topping — It’s Loading for $4,500XAUUSD – H1 Analysis Market Structure: Gold is maintaining a strong bullish structure, consolidating tightly below the previous high. This is a classic continuation setup, not a distribution phase. Key Zones: - Resistance Zone: The former high area has now been tested and absorbed. Price acceptance above this zone signals strength. - Support Zone: Buyers continue to defend the higher support band, confirming higher lows and trend control. Price Action Insight: Sideways movement under resistance = bullish consolidation. No aggressive sell-off after breakout → sellers are weak. Volume remains stable, suggesting institutional accumulation rather than exhaustion. Primary Scenario: A brief pullback to retest the breakout zone, followed by continuation toward new highs, with $4,500 as the next psychological magnet. Risk Scenario: Only a strong breakdown back below the consolidation range would invalidate the bullish bias. Conclusion: Gold is building energy above key levels. As long as price holds above support, dips are opportunities the trend favors continuation, not reversal.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Gold_Dominator
Bitcoin Isn’t Stuck — It’s Trapping Liquidity BTCUSD – H1 Technical Analysis Market Structure: Bitcoin is trading inside a high-liquidity range, holding firmly above the key support zone. The sharp rejection from support followed by strong recovery confirms buyers are still in control. Key Levels: Support Zone: ~85,200 — aggressively defended, forming a solid base. Liquidity Range: 86,800 – 89,500 — price is compressing here to absorb orders. Resistance Zone: ~90,500 — the next major breakout trigger. Price Action Insight: Sideways movement after a strong bounce = accumulation, not weakness. Higher lows inside the range indicate building bullish pressure. No heavy selling despite repeated tests → supply is being absorbed. Primary Scenario: Continuation toward the 90,500 resistance, followed by a breakout targeting new highs above 91,000 once liquidity is cleared. Invalidation: Only a clean breakdown and acceptance below 85,200 would shift the bias bearish. Conclusion: Bitcoin is not ranging randomly it is coiling. As long as support holds, the path of least resistance remains upward.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Gold_Dominator
ETH Is Compressing — Breakout or Another Trap?ETH/USD – H1 Analysis Market Structure: ETH is moving sideways after a strong recovery from the lower support zone. Price is now compressing just below a key resistance band, signaling indecision and liquidity build-up. Key Levels: Resistance: The upper red zone is the main barrier. Multiple rejections here confirm heavy supply. Support: The green support zone below remains intact and continues to attract buyers on pullbacks. Price Action Insight: Sideways movement under resistance = accumulation, not weakness. Higher lows are forming, showing buyers are gradually gaining control. This structure often precedes a sharp expansion move. Primary Scenario: A clean break and hold above resistance opens the path toward the higher resistance zone above. Alternative Scenario: Failure to break may trigger a pullback toward support to reset momentum before the next attempt. Conclusion: ETH is in a decision zone. Stay patient wait for confirmation. The next move is likely to be fast and directional.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by Gold_Dominator