Don’t Rush to Call the Top on EURUSDEURUSD in the late December 20–21 period is showing a clearly bullish picture , supported by both fundamental news and technical structure . This is not a euphoric phase , but rather a period where the market slows down to accumulate before making its next move.
From a fundamental perspective, the ECB has kept interest rates unchanged and delivered a relatively positive outlook, while the USD lacks fresh momentum as U.S. data has not been strong enough to push the Fed back into a hawkish stance. This backdrop allows the euro to maintain a short-term advantage.
On the chart, price remains firmly above the 1.1680 support zone , and the Higher Low structure is still intact. The Ichimoku setup shows sideways movement above a thin cloud , a condition that often appears before a trend continuation rather than a reversal.
As long as the current support holds , the preferred scenario remains EURUSD pushing higher toward 1.1750, with the potential to retest the upper resistance zone. When the trend has not broken , following the flow is far wiser than trying to predict a top.
Technical Analysis
SOLUSD - December Distribution Structure
Executive Summary
COINBASE:SOLUSD has declined approximately 52 percent from its November 2024 all-time high of 264 USD to current levels around 126 USD. This analysis examines the technical structure, on-chain metrics, and fundamental catalysts to determine high-probability trade zones. The evidence suggests further downside toward the 100-115 USD accumulation zone before a sustainable recovery can begin.
Technical Structure Analysis
Price Action Overview
Solana is currently trading within a descending channel that formed after the November 2024 peak. The structure shows:
Lower highs at 264, 220, 180, and 145 USD forming clear descending resistance
Lower lows indicating sustained selling pressure
Current price testing the 125-130 USD zone which previously acted as resistance in October 2024
Volume declining on bounces and increasing on selloffs - classic distribution signature
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Zones:
140-145 USD - Recent swing high rejection zone
160-165 USD - Previous support turned resistance
180-185 USD - Major structural resistance
Support Zones:
115-120 USD - Minor support, likely to break
100-105 USD - Major support, November 2024 breakout origin
85-90 USD - Secondary support if macro deteriorates
Moving Average Analysis
Price is trading below the 20, 50, and 200 period moving averages on the daily timeframe
The 20 MA has crossed below the 50 MA, confirming short-term bearish momentum
The 200 MA is flattening and beginning to slope downward
Moving averages are fanning out in bearish alignment
RSI and Momentum
Daily RSI is currently in the 35-40 range, approaching oversold but not yet at extreme levels
RSI has been making lower highs alongside price, confirming the downtrend
No bullish divergence present yet - divergence at the 100-115 zone would be a strong buy signal
Weekly RSI has room to decline further before reaching oversold extremes seen at previous bottoms
Volume Profile
High volume node exists at the 100-115 USD zone from the November 2024 accumulation period
Current price zone shows relatively low volume, suggesting lack of strong buyer interest
Volume has been declining during recent bounce attempts - weak demand
A volume spike at the 100-115 zone would confirm institutional accumulation
Fibonacci Retracement
Measuring from the September 2024 low of 120 USD to the November 2024 high of 264 USD:
0.382 retracement: 209 USD - Already broken
0.5 retracement: 192 USD - Already broken
0.618 retracement: 175 USD - Already broken
0.786 retracement: 151 USD - Already broken
Full retracement: 120 USD - Currently testing
The breakdown through the 0.786 level suggests the move is corrective in nature and a full retracement to the 100-120 USD origin zone is probable.
On-Chain and Fundamental Analysis
Network Activity Metrics
Solana network statistics show mixed signals:
Daily active addresses have declined from peak levels during the meme coin mania
Transaction counts remain elevated compared to other Layer 1 networks
Total Value Locked in Solana DeFi protocols has decreased from highs
NFT trading volume on Solana marketplaces has cooled significantly
Supply Distribution
Large holder concentration remains high with significant whale wallet activity
Exchange inflows have increased in recent weeks, indicating selling pressure
Staking participation remains strong, reducing liquid supply
FTX bankruptcy estate continues systematic liquidation of SOL holdings
Macro Factors Affecting Solana
Bearish Catalysts:
Federal Reserve December 2025 meeting maintained hawkish stance with fewer rate cuts projected for 2026
Risk-off sentiment affecting high-beta assets disproportionately
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD dominance rising, indicating capital rotation from altcoins to Bitcoin
Regulatory uncertainty regarding Solana ETF approval timeline
FTX estate selling pressure creating persistent supply overhang
Meme coin speculation that drove the 2024 rally has cooled substantially
Bullish Catalysts:
Solana network upgrades improving transaction throughput and reliability
Growing institutional interest in Solana ecosystem projects
Potential Solana ETF approval could drive significant inflows
Strong developer activity and ecosystem growth metrics
Firedancer client development progressing, promising improved network performance
Solana remains the preferred chain for new DeFi and consumer applications
Competitive Positioning
Solana maintains advantages over competing Layer 1 networks:
Transaction costs remain significantly lower than BITSTAMP:ETHUSD mainnet
Transaction speed and finality superior to most competitors
Developer ecosystem continues expanding despite price decline
Institutional partnerships and integrations increasing
However, challenges persist:
Network outages and congestion issues have damaged reputation
Centralization concerns regarding validator distribution
Competition from Ethereum Layer 2 solutions intensifying
Regulatory classification uncertainty in United States
Whale and Institutional Activity
Recent on-chain data indicates:
Large wallets have been net sellers over the past 30 days
Exchange deposits from whale addresses have increased
Institutional funds have reduced Solana allocation according to fund flow data
However, accumulation signals are appearing at lower price levels
The pattern suggests distribution at current levels with potential accumulation beginning at the 100-115 USD zone.
Trade Framework
Primary Scenario - Bearish Continuation (Higher Probability)
The weight of evidence supports further downside before a sustainable bottom forms:
Technical structure remains bearish with lower highs and lower lows
Price below all major moving averages
Macro environment unfavorable for risk assets
On-chain metrics showing distribution
No bullish divergence on momentum indicators yet
Short Setup:
Entry Zone: 130-140 USD on relief bounces
Stop Loss: Above 148 USD
Target 1: 115-118 USD
Target 2: 105-108 USD
Target 3: 95-100 USD
Secondary Scenario - Accumulation at Support
The 100-115 USD zone represents a high-conviction long opportunity if confirmation signals appear:
This zone was the origin of the November 2024 rally
High volume node from previous accumulation period
Full Fibonacci retracement level
Psychological round number support at 100 USD
Long Setup:
Entry Zone: 100-115 USD
Stop Loss: Below 92 USD
Target 1: 130-135 USD
Target 2: 150-160 USD
Target 3: 180-200 USD
Confirmation Signals Required for Long Entry:
Bullish RSI divergence on daily timeframe
Volume spike on bullish candle at support
Price reclaiming the 20 period moving average
Higher low formation on 4-hour timeframe
Decrease in exchange inflows from whale wallets
Risk Management
Position sizing should not exceed 2-3 percent of portfolio for short setups
Long setups at the 100-115 zone warrant 3-5 percent allocation due to higher conviction
Scale into positions using 3 tranches rather than single entry
Move stop loss to breakeven after first target achieved
Avoid trading the 120-130 USD range without clear directional confirmation
Monitor BITSTAMP:BTCUSD price action as correlation remains high
Invalidation Levels
Bearish thesis invalidated if:
Daily close above 150 USD with increasing volume
Price reclaims 50 and 200 moving averages
RSI breaks above 60 with momentum
Bullish thesis invalidated if:
Daily close below 92 USD
Volume spike on breakdown below 100 USD
Bitcoin breaks below 75000 USD triggering broader market selloff
Timeline Expectations
Short-term (1-4 weeks): Expect continued weakness toward 100-115 USD support zone
Medium-term (1-3 months): Potential basing pattern formation if support holds
Long-term (3-6 months): Recovery rally possible if macro conditions improve and Solana-specific catalysts materialize
Conclusion
COINBASE:SOLUSD is in a clear distribution phase following the November 2024 peak. The technical structure, on-chain metrics, and macro environment all point to further downside before a sustainable bottom forms.
The 100-115 USD zone represents the highest probability accumulation area based on:
Historical significance as the November 2024 breakout origin
Fibonacci full retracement level
High volume node from previous accumulation
Psychological support at 100 USD round number
The recommended approach is patience. Avoid buying at current levels where distribution is occurring. Wait for price to reach the 100-115 USD zone and confirm with bullish divergence and volume signals before establishing long positions.
For traders seeking short exposure, relief bounces to the 130-140 USD zone offer favorable risk-reward entries with defined stops above 148 USD.
This is not financial advice. Always conduct independent research and manage risk appropriately.
BTC Gold - BKC Charting ExampleBare Knuckle Charting BKC is something I developed (And still developing) over the years.
I will use this chart to give you a crash course in BKC.
Here is the original post I made back in March to follow along. )
So, BKC, let's start with:
1. Always start with a plain chart.
2. 99.9% of the time, look for 3 waves plus a hook.
3. Count 4 points (2 top and 2 bottom) connecting with a line. Price can NEVER violate price. EVER! so it must be the highest or lowest points in that particular wave.
4. A structure will reveal itself pointing in a direction up, down sideways.
-Sideways means continuation of the previous trend.
-Up/Down structure means a reversal structure is coming.
5. Now you can clearly identify key areas of the structure. What I call "CRACK!" A break in momentum.
6. A CRACK can collapse or give you early warning signs.
7. Once a crack has revealed itself at key areas, don't be fooled by the subsequent price action. This is where most get F up. They don't see what you see. A CRACK & weak buying barely trying to hold the trendline that will ultimately CRACK again and more likely than not collapse with them holding a bag of schitt! Mesmerized with the overall trend and more specifically mesmerized by the most recent trend after the CRACK (they don't see) that moved in their favor.
These people can't see past their noses. Completely unaware of what is actually happening. The best part is when they show you a chart, they just draw lines randomly violating price (CRACKS) and concluding that the chart is bullish or bearish, and telling you how it is. HAHAHAHA! SMH!
8. Because you can all see past your noses using BKC. This will help you in so many ways that you can't even imagine! Why?
- You won't take random trades anywhere in the chart! You will wait for key areas to get involved. This alone will dramatically cut down on the # of needle trades you make, which at best are 50/50 happenstance results that you then give meaning to. Basically, gambling with the illusion of analysis.
-Next, you completely remove the subjectivity and cute stories that produce the illusion of "analysis."
THIS IS IMPORTANT! With BKC you extract information FROM the data. Not applying your vague hunches and feelings TO THE DATA! That's the difference between Real & Illusion of analysis.
- Continuing on. With BKC, you have a much more holistic understanding of price and what investors' emotions are. It's all right there in the chart. People talking with their money. Not their mouth!
- Once you see charts properly and understand what they are actually telling you, Waves - hooks - Structures - key Areas - Strengths -Weaknesses - CRACKS etc... you can't UNSEE IT! It's impossible!
- Your actual trade or investment positioning and size drastically improve. You understand that a single CRACK may just be a warning, as such, you don't run out and bet the farm and have it blow up in your face! That alone will greatly improve win win-loss ratio and help prevent blown-out accounts or massive losses. You can't be a trader investor if you are losing your ars beyond the typical cost of doing business draw downs. That is just so basic!
- Most importantly, you will finally STOP! this maddening going for 2, 3, 4% "targets"! Then on to the next big guess and keep repeating until you blow yourself out! I know I used to do it! Now with BKC you will go for mammoth moves 30, 50, 75, 100% plus moves! Bc you see the holistic view. Not the hiccups of random simple price movement, thinking you did something.
- With BKC, Small losses are viewed as informational. Schitt didn't do what it was supposed to do. It went back into structure strongly, so I am out! Simple. Who cares? If I repeat this 10 times in the end, I will be profitable. Even if 9 weren't! WHAT? Yes! Because when you go for the big moves, that is actually possible as crazy as it sounds. But you will never experience that unless you actually learn how to do it. That's what BKC is for. You will never learn how to do it if you keep going for silly 2-3% piker moves! 100% GUARANTEED! You must stop wasting your time & fooling yourself with randomness and then trying to apply meaning to it.
This is not by any means an inferential! You all share your stuff and approaches, scripts, bots, and mostly the same old tired candlesticks, moving averages, FIBS, and targets etc.. which is why you can all speak the same language and understand each other, but fail to produce real, meaningful results.
BKC is a completely different approach as far as I know. It does not give you a fish, it teaches you HOW to fish! For BIG ONES!
I will keep posting examples here as I have been, but now you should have a bit more clarity as to how and why I post what I post. Follow along and see the difference in real time. No hindsight crystal ball nonsensical bullschitt.
As for this chart with a H&S at a top Look for a pop then a drop! Should this H&S break, it will be ugly for the Crypto Bros.!
The proof is in the pudding! ;)
THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥
Let’s keep climbing.
If you enjoy the work:
👉 Boost
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👉 Drop a solid comment
Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
RNDR – Weekly Structure Price is currently trading at a major HTF support zone around $1.20–$1.30.
This level previously acted as strong support and resistance, making it a key decision area.
The recent downside wick has been partially filled (~50%), which often signals temporary demand, but structure is still bearish on the higher timeframe.
Key levels to watch:
Support: $1.20 – $1.30
Next downside risk: If this level fails → possible continuation lower
Bias:
As long as price holds above support → potential range / relief bounce
Weekly close below support → bearish continuation scenario
Patience is key here. Let price confirm direction before entering.
Not financial advice. Always manage risk.
MrC
BCH: $700–$800 Before the Next Bear MarketBCH Macro Resistance Before Bear Market
Based on historical price structure, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) appears to be approaching a macro resistance zone around $700–$800 , which has previously marked the final upside before major bear markets.
In 2018 and 2022, BCH followed a very similar pattern:
A prolonged accumulation phase
A strong push into a horizontal resistance zone
A rejection from that zone, followed by a deep bear market decline
The current structure closely mirrors those past cycles. Price is once again testing the same historical supply zone, where sellers previously stepped in aggressively.
Key idea:
I expect BCH to reach the $700–$800 range
This level could act as the last distribution zone before the broader market transitions into a new bear market phase
This is not a short-term trade idea, but a macro perspective based on repeating market behavior and long-term resistance reactions.
⚠️ As always, confirmation is needed, and this scenario is invalidated i f price accepts and holds above the resistance zone.
Market Panic: Gold or Crypto?When the market enters a state of panic, the question is no longer “How much profit can I make?” but rather “Which asset helps me survive and protect my capital?”
In moments like these, gold and crypto are often placed side by side. Both are seen as safe havens—but in very different ways, and that difference is the key to making the right decision.
1) Gold – Where Capital Flows When Confidence Breaks
Gold has existed for thousands of years with one core purpose: preserving value.
When inflation rises, geopolitical tensions escalate, or the financial system shows signs of stress, large capital tends to move into gold first.
Why gold performs well during crises:
High global liquidity, accepted across all markets
Relatively “orderly” volatility, suitable for defensive positioning
Often benefits when real interest rates fall and the USD weakens
In other words, gold won’t make you rich overnight, but it helps you avoid being washed away when the storm hits.
2) Crypto – An Asset Driven by Expectations and Emotion
Crypto represents a new generation of assets, where value is heavily influenced by future expectations, technology narratives, and speculative capital.
In normal or euphoric market conditions, crypto can rise very quickly.
But when panic sets in, the story changes.
Here’s the reality we need to face:
Crypto reacts extremely sensitively to “risk-off” sentiment
High leverage + thin liquidity during stress periods can trigger chain liquidations
In major shocks, crypto is often sold alongside growth stocks, rather than acting as a true safe haven
Therefore, crypto is not a defensive asset in the traditional sense—it is an asset of belief and market cycles.
3) When Should You Choose Gold? When Should You Hold Crypto?
The answer is not “which is better,” but what the market context is.
True panic (systemic risk, war, financial crisis):
➡ Gold is usually the preferred choice.
Capital seeks certainty, not stories.
Short-term crisis followed by monetary easing:
➡ Gold often leads the first wave,
➡ Crypto tends to recover more aggressively after a psychological bottom forms.
Stable markets with abundant liquidity:
➡ Crypto performs at its best.
4) My Perspective: Don’t Choose with Emotion
From my experience, the biggest mistake traders make during panic is choosing assets based on personal belief instead of capital flow and market behavior.
A professional trader asks:
Where is large capital taking refuge?
Is current volatility suitable for my trading style?
Is my goal capital preservation or outsized returns?
If your priority is safety and stability, gold is usually the more reasonable choice.
If you accept high risk in pursuit of high reward, crypto should only be approached after clear confirmation, not during extreme panic.
Adyen 1W: The trend broke twice, the market is just catching upOn the weekly chart, Adyen has broken the long term downtrend twice, and price is now performing a controlled pullback retest. The current consolidation holds above the $15.5–16.0 demand zone, where MA100, 0.786 Fibonacci and strong volume profile support align. Selling pressure is fading, volumes on the pullback are declining, and bullish divergence remains intact. This structure favors confirmation of the breakout rather than a return to a bearish trend. As long as price stays above this zone, upside remains the priority. First target stands at $19.94, followed by $23.23.
Fundamentally, Adyen continues to deliver consistent growth. H1 2025 revenue reached $1.28B, up from $1.13B in H2 2024. H2 2025 revenue is projected at $1.49B, with forecasts extending toward $1.53–1.88B in 2026–2027. EPS came in at $0.18 for H1 2025, with $0.21 expected in H2, rising toward $0.25–0.26 by 2027. Analyst sentiment leans bullish as digital payment volumes continue to expand globally.
When a trend breaks twice, patience usually gets paid.
ETH Is Free — But Not Trending YetETH/USD – 1H
Price has broken the descending trendline, signaling selling pressure is weakening.
However, this is a technical rebound, not a confirmed uptrend.
Key Levels
Support: 2,760–2,800 (strong buyer reaction)
Current zone: 2,940–2,960 (decision area)
Resistance: 3,150–3,160 (major supply)
Outlook
Base case: range / shallow pullback, then a retest toward 3,050–3,160.
Bullish continuation only if price closes and holds above 3,160.
Bottom Line
Momentum has improved, but the real move comes after resistance breaks.
Patience beats prediction here.
Bitcoin Is Trapped in a High-Liquidity RangeMarket Structure (H1)
Bitcoin is currently locked inside a clearly defined range, capped by a heavy resistance zone around 90,500 and supported by a well-defended demand area near 85,200. Price action inside this box is choppy and overlapping, with repeated sweeps of both highs and lows — a classic liquidity-building environment rather than a trending phase.
The sharp sell-off from the left side of the chart established a lower structural regime, after which BTC transitioned into sideways rotation. Each bounce toward resistance fails to achieve acceptance, while each dip into support is aggressively defended. This confirms balance, not strength or weakness.
Liquidity & Price Behavior
The green projected swings highlight how price is likely to continue oscillating between resistance and support, hunting liquidity on both sides. This behavior typically precedes a range expansion, but until a clean breakout occurs, moves inside the range remain low-probability and noise-driven.
Macro & U.S. Policy Context
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin remains constrained by unfavorable U.S. conditions:
The Federal Reserve maintains a restrictive policy stance, keeping real yields elevated.
A relatively strong USD continues to pressure risk assets.
Liquidity conditions remain tight, reducing follow-through on upside attempts.
These factors explain why BTC struggles to accept above resistance despite multiple tests — macro headwinds are capping momentum.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is not trending it is accumulating liquidity.
Above 90,500 with acceptance → upside expansion becomes likely.
Failure at resistance → continued rotation and potential downside sweep toward support.
Until price leaves the range with intent, patience is the edge.
This Is a Distribution Trap Below ResistanceBITCOIN (BTCUSD) — H1 MARKET ANALYSIS
1. Market Structure
BTC is still trading within a short-term bearish structure. Despite the recent bounce from the support zone, the market continues to form lower highs under a well-defined resistance band. The recovery leg is corrective, not impulsive a key sign that sellers remain in control.
Price behavior shows:
Strong sell-off → weak rebound
No higher high formed
Structure remains capped below resistance
2. Key Technical Zones
Resistance Zone: 88,800 – 89,600
This is a major supply area aligned with previous breakdown structure and EMA resistance.
Support Zone: 84,800 – 85,400
A critical liquidity pool where buyers previously defended, but still vulnerable to another sweep.
3. Moving Averages & Momentum
EMA 34 (blue): Acting as dynamic resistance during the rebound.
EMA 89 (red): Still trending downward and clearly above price → confirms bearish market bias.
Momentum lacks follow-through; bullish candles are short-lived and overlap heavily.
4. Market Psychology & Liquidity
The current consolidation is distribution, not accumulation:
- Buyers are chasing rebounds after a sharp drop.
- Smart money is selling into strength below resistance.
- The market is building liquidity for a second downside expansion.
This sideways-up movement is designed to:
- Trap late buyers
- Create exit liquidity for sellers
- Prepare for continuation lower
5. Scenario Outlook
🔽 Primary Scenario (High Probability): Bearish Continuation
Price fails at resistance
Sideways consolidation completes
Breakdown toward:
- First target: 85,800
- Main target: 84,500
- Extension: 83,800 – 84,000
🔼 Invalidation Scenario
Only if BTC breaks and holds above 89,600 with strong volume, the bearish structure is invalidated and a deeper recovery becomes possible.
6. Trading Bias
Main Bias: Bearish
Market Phase: Distribution → Liquidity Setup
Strategy: Sell rallies near resistance, avoid long positions inside corrective moves.
Conclusion
BTC is not showing strength it is recycling liquidity below resistance. Until the resistance zone is decisively broken, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Patience is key; the real move comes after distribution is complete.
ETH Just Defended the FloorETHUSD (H1) — MARKET ANALYSIS
1. Market Structure
Ethereum has successfully defended the key support zone around 2,900 – 2,920, forming a strong rejection candle after the recent sell-off. This confirms that the prior drop was a liquidity sweep, not a trend reversal. The structure now shows a higher low, signaling a short-term bullish shift.
2. Key Zones
Support Zone: 2,900 – 2,920
This level has been tested and defended decisively, indicating active demand.
Target 1: ~3,060
First upside objective aligned with previous intraday resistance.
Target 2: ~3,160
Higher liquidity target and next major resistance zone.
3. Price Action & Momentum
Strong impulsive bullish candle from support → clear sign of buyer aggression.
Pullback structure remains shallow, showing no strong selling pressure.
Price acceptance above support suggests continuation rather than retracement.
4. Market Psychology
This move reflects smart money re-entry after forcing weak hands out below support. Late sellers are now trapped, and any consolidation above the support zone increases the probability of a trend continuation push upward.
5. Scenario Outlook
🔼 Primary Scenario (High Probability):
Hold above 2,900 – 2,920
Minor consolidation / pullback
Expansion toward:
TP1: 3,060
TP2: 3,160
🔽 Invalidation Scenario:
Strong breakdown and close below 2,880
→ would open room for a deeper correction.
Conclusion
ETH is showing clean bullish re-accumulation behavior after a liquidity grab. As long as price holds above the support zone, the path of least resistance remains to the upside, with buyers firmly back in control.
Two Forces Cancel Each Other Out, EURUSD Tilts BearishAlthough the USD is weakening due to expectations that the Fed will continue its monetary easing , EURUSD has failed to break higher as the euro’s internal strength shows clear signs of weakness . With these two fundamental forces offsetting each other , the market is gradually leaning toward a short-term corrective decline.
On the fundamental side, disappointing Eurozone PMI data highlights a sharper-than-expected slowdown in economic growth , particularly in manufacturing and services. This has weighed on the euro, preventing EURUSD from capitalizing on USD weakness and increasing the likelihood of a pullback as buying momentum fades.
From a technical perspective, price is currently pulling back to retest the rising trendline and the Ichimoku cloud, signaling that selling pressure is building. The preferred technical scenario is a pullback toward the 1.1700 area, where dynamic support and structural support converge.
At this stage, it is more appropriate to observe price reaction at key support levels rather than expect a strong upside move. The market is testing patience—and it is often during these corrective phases that the clearest opportunities begin to emerge.
USDJPY Still Hot – 157.00 Is CallingHello traders,
USDJPY is currently showing a short-term bullish bias , as the narrative of a weak JPY despite the BOJ’s rate hike has not yet shifted overall market sentiment. Although the BOJ raised rates to 0.75%, the yen remains soft, indicating that much of the move was already priced in, and markets are still skeptical about the pace of further tightening.
At the same time, the USD continues to hold relative strength across the currency basket, providing a solid foundation for USDJPY to stay supported.
From a technical perspective, price action reflects a “slow but steady” uptrend : higher lows are being formed, and the 155.50 area is acting as a key support and pivot zone . The consolidation around 155.5–156.0 suggests accumulation, and as long as this base holds, the probability favors a move higher to retest the upper resistance.
The preferred scenario is to look for BUY opportunities on pullbacks : if price holds above 155.50 and shows a rebound, the near-term target is 157.00. Only a clear H4 close below 155.50 would weaken the short-term bullish outlook and warrant a reassessment.
Thank you for listening, and wishing you successful trading ahead.
EURUSD Finds Its Rhythm: Buyers Remain in ControlIn the current trading phase, EURUSD is presenting a clean and easy-to-read bullish structure , especially when viewed against a news backdrop that has recently tilted slightly in favor of the euro . Following the ECB’s more stable and optimistic tone , the market has shown less appetite for aggressive USD buying, creating room for EUR to maintain its short-term advantage .
Looking at the chart, the price structure remains clearly constructive : the uptrend is intact with higher highs and higher lows. Recent pullbacks appear to be nothing more than a healthy pause, as price continues to find solid support around the 1.1700 zone — a well-defined technical level where buying interest repeatedly steps in. This behavior confirms that buyers are still in control, rather than stepping aside.
Under a favorable scenario, EURUSD has room to extend higher and test the 1.1800 area , which stands as the nearest resistance and a logical upside target for the current move. As long as price holds above 1.1700, the bullish bias remains dominant, and any pullback should be viewed as opportunity rather than risk.
In summary, EURUSD is advancing in an orderly bullish manner — not rushing into a breakout, yet showing no signs of meaningful weakness . If market sentiment remains steady, the upside path stays open for traders willing to stay patient and follow the trend.
Ethereum Isn’t Weak — It’s Being AbsorbedETH/USD – H1 Technical Breakdown
Ethereum is currently trading inside a well-defined sideways range, bounded by a firm support zone near the lower box and a clearly defended resistance band above. This is not random consolidation it is structured balance, where liquidity is being built rather than released.
On the price action side, ETH has repeatedly swept liquidity near the support zone and responded with sharp rebounds, indicating aggressive absorption by buyers. Each sell-off into the lower boundary has failed to extend, suggesting that downside momentum is being capped. Meanwhile, upside attempts are still capped by the resistance zone, keeping price compressed inside the range.
From a trend and moving average perspective, price is now attempting to reclaim the short-term EMA, while the longer EMA still acts as a dynamic ceiling. This creates a classic compression environment: volatility contracts, fake moves appear, and impatient traders are forced out.
Market Logic Going Forward
- As long as ETH holds above the support zone, downside remains corrective, not trend-defining.
- A clean acceptance above the resistance zone would signal range resolution, opening room for expansion toward the upper targets.
- Until that happens, ETH is in a positioning phase, not a trending phase — chasing candles inside the box remains low probability.
Key Takeaway
This is not a market choosing direction yet. It is a market testing commitment. The real move begins when price leaves the range with acceptance, not when it reacts inside it.
NQ (Nasdaq 100 Futures) - Technical Short SetupMarket Context & Thesis
Price action on the NQ is approaching a significant technical confluence, suggesting a potential reversal zone favorable for short positioning. The setup is defined by two key Fibonacci retracement levels aligning closely, indicating strengthened resistance.
Technical Rationale
Primary Resistance Confluence: Price is nearing the convergence of two distinct .382 Fibonacci retracement levels.
A longer-term .382 retracement measured from the late-October high to the November low.
A more recent .382 retracement from the December 10th high.
Volume Analysis: The rally to the longer-term .382 level in November was accompanied by strong volume (~11M), potentially representing a prior distribution zone. The subsequent advance to the current zone has occurred on notably lower volume (~3M), indicating weakening bullish momentum and lack of broad participation, which supports the reversal premise.
Conclusion
The confluence of dual Fibonacci resistance, corroborated by divergent volume profiles, presents a high-probability short entry opportunity. The trade structure offers a disciplined, quantified approach with a positive expected value based on 3:1 risk-reward framework.
Fast Bounce Setup | Price: 63.33 → Target: 66.49 (+5%)Fundamentals 📊
HALO continues to show strong revenue and profit forecasts, with steady growth expectations.
The fundamental outlook remains supportive for short-term upside.
Repeated Behavior 🔍
This stock has a repeated pattern of delivering at least a 5% bounce from similar oversold or congested zones.
The current structure matches previous cycles.
Price Action 📉➡️📈
Price action at this level is reacting to a resistance zone, which historically leads to a quick 5% reaction move before continuation or pullback.
NZDUSD Update: Kiwi Is Looking For More Upside After CorrectionWe talked about the Kiwi(NZDUSD) back in October, where we mentioned and highlighted a bottom formation within an ending diagonal / wedge pattern for wave C of an ABC corrective decline.
As you can see today, Kiwi is nicely bouncing and recovering after RBNZ cut interest rates in November, and forecasts suggest the broader committee believes the nadir has been hit for the easing cycle. So the Kiwi is coming up as no room for cuts, for now. Notice it can be now bottom after the wedge pattern into wave C, due to an impulsive recovery, which we see it as a wave 1 of a new five-wave bullish cycle. So seems like more upside is coming within wave 3 of a five-wave bullish cycle, but ideally after the current corrective setback in wave 2 with supports at 0.5750 – 0.5700.
The reason Kiwi could see more upside into late 2025 and early 2026 is due to a bullish stock market, which still has room for gains. S&P 500 and NZD/USD (Kiwi) have been in a tight positive correlation since the November lows. Therefore, if the S&P 500 is set to resume its bullish trend, the Kiwi could easily follow.
XRP – Daily OutlookXRP Army,
Price is still trading inside a descending channel, keeping the short-term structure bearish.
We recently saw a reaction from daily support, but this move alone is not enough to confirm a reversal.
In the past, this support level has shown clean deviations, where price dipped below and quickly reclaimed the level.
A similar scenario could play out again, but confirmation is required.
Key observation:
For any bullish continuation, XRP needs to reclaim the broken support level and hold above it.
Without a reclaim, this move remains a relief bounce within a downtrend.
I’ll be watching lower timeframes for a potential deviation and reclaim before considering longs.
Until then, caution is warranted.
Levels to watch:
Resistance: reclaimed support + upper channel
Support: current daily support zone
MrC
JTO – Weekly OutlookPrice broke below the previous support and confirmed an S/R flip, turning that level into resistance.
Last wick from October 6th is now fully filled, which means that inefficiency has been resolved.
We are currently trading below key weekly support, and price is consolidating at lows.
At this point, there is no clear confirmation of a reversal yet.
Key observation:
If price creates a deviation below current support, I’ll be watching for long opportunities on lower timeframes, targeting a move back into the range.
If not, this level may act as acceptance and continuation to the downside.
Patience is key here — let the market show its hand.
Levels to watch:
Resistance: previous weekly support (now S/R flip)
Support: current lows after wick fill
What do you think — deviation reclaim incoming or further downside first?
Avanti Feeds Ltd – Breakout Watch
📌 Buy Zone: ₹856
🎯 Target: ₹935
🛑 Stoploss: ₹812
Price action is testing a descending trendline on the daily chart. Volume spike and RSI momentum suggest a potential breakout. Risk-managed entry near ₹856 could offer a favorable reward-to-risk setup.
🔍 Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not SEBI registered. Do your own research before investing.
DAX Rebound Signals Potential Upside After Key Support HoldGerman DAX was very non-directional, basically since June of 2025 and what I see is some very nasty moves on both sides of the market, but what got our attention recently is that the price has stopped at key support levels around 23k to 23300 area, from where we can see a very interesting and strong rebound. What is most important is that this rebound is coming after only three waves down from all-time highs, so it can be part of a WXY complex correction here in a fourth wave on a daily chart. Of course there can be some other labelings as well, but with any approach you will probably come out with the same idea that this whole price action in this five to six month range is corrective, and whenever we see a correction we know that sooner or later it should be fully retraced, meaning the price could already be headed back toward the highs from current levels.
Bounce looks impulsive, and it may have formed a bullish setup formation with waves 1 and 2, so we think that more gains are coming within wave 3, especially if breaks back above 24500 bullish confirmation level.






















