Technical Analysis
Dollar Index (DXY): Confirmed BoS
Dollar Index keeps following our plan.
The market closed on Friday, breaking a previous local high
and setting a new higher high higher close with a confirmed BoS.
We can expect more growth and a highly probable test of 100.0 level soon.
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XAU/USD Daily Structure – Bullish Reversal Targeting BPR ZoneA potential bullish reversal after a recent pullback, aiming for a retest of higher price levels.
Prior Price Action: The price experienced a strong uptrend (sequence of large green candles) leading up to the mid-October high, followed by a sharp pullback (red candles) which broke below a previous low, labeled as BOS (Break of Structure). This BOS confirms a short-term bearish shift or the start of a deep correction within the larger uptrend.
Current Price Level: The price is currently near $4,008.10, having shown recent bullish momentum (the last green candle) off a recent swing low.
Key Levels and Concepts:
D/FVG (Daily Fair Value Gap): There are two Fair Value Gaps marked on the chart.
The lower D/FVG (around $4,000 - $4,060) acted as an initial target or point of interest during the decline. The price has started to move up from this area.
The upper D/FVG (around $4,170 - $4,220) represents a future potential target.
BPR (Balanced Price Range): This blue area (around $4,160 - $4,180) is an area where a previous down move's FVG overlaps with a subsequent up move's FVG (or vice versa), suggesting a zone where the market might find temporary balance or resistance/support.
Projected Path: The black arrow illustrates a bullish projection. The price is expected to continue its upward move, potentially targeting the lower D/FVG for a re-entry/retest before making its way towards the BPR and the upper D/FVG as the final target of this short-term analysis.
Gold Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a selling opportunity around 4,060 zone, Gold was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 4,060 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Gold compression before expansionGold remains in a controlled accumulation phase after a strong move, holding rising lows and respecting the fair value zone near 3990. As long as buyers defend the 3985–4000 range, the setup favors a false dip and re-entry scenario with continuation higher. A clean break and hold above 4040 unlocks the first target at 4110, and extension toward 4200 remains valid on structural expansion and Fibo alignment. The market is balanced on a hinge: levels are defined, buyers present, but confirmation lies only in price reclaiming the breakout zone.
Fundamentally gold still tracks macro uncertainty. Rates, inflation expectations, dollar hesitation and US debt dynamics keep capital rotating defensively. This is one of those periods where expectations and reality diverge, and the longer the compression holds, the stronger the eventual move. Still, discipline first — price must confirm above 4040.
Bias remains bullish while above 3985. Break below opens a corrective path toward 3920–3890 before another attempt higher.
EURUSD Plunges: Hawkish Fed Crushes the Euro?Hey traders, let’s take a look at EURUSD — the market is revealing an exciting opportunity for the sellers!
After the September meeting, the Fed emphasized its “data-dependent” stance, signaling it’s not ready to ease policy while the U.S. economy remains solid. This reinforces expectations that the USD will stay strong , as the Fed could keep interest rates higher for longer. As the dollar gains momentum, EURUSD faces clear downward pressure.
On the H4 chart, the price is clinging to a descending trendline that has rejected three previous attempts to break higher — each touch has been sharply sold off. Currently, EURUSD trades around 1.1560, below the 1.1600 resistance, which acts as a potential bull trap . The likely scenario: a mild pullback toward 1.1600 before continuing lower to the 1.1520 support zone. A break below that level could open the door toward 1.1450.
In summary, the overall trend for EURUSD remains bearish . With the Fed maintaining its hawkish stance, every rebound is simply a chance for sellers to enter at better prices. Stay disciplined, follow the trend — the market rewards those who have patience!
$SPY $SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 3 → Nov 7, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY SP:SPX Scenarios — Week of Nov 3 → Nov 7, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 Post-FOMC digestion: After Powell’s Oct 29 presser, traders watch whether yields and the dollar cool or extend higher.
📈 Labor-week spotlight: Friday’s Jobs Report (NFP, wages, unemployment) anchors the week — rate-path odds hinge on those prints.
💬 Fed tone in focus: Multiple governors and regional presidents hit the circuit after the FOMC — every nuance matters for December guidance.
⚠️ Shutdown watch: Several BEA and Census releases (Factory Orders, Trade Balance, GDP components) may not print on time if the government remains partially shuttered.
💻 Earnings taper off: Final big-cap names and sector leaders wrap Q3 results, shaping sentiment into mid-November.
📊 Key Data and Events (ET)
Mon Nov 3
⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Durable Goods Orders (Sept) | Ex-transportation subset — BEA report; possible delay
⏰ 10:00 AM — Factory Orders (Sept) ⚠️ possible delay
Tue Nov 4
⏰ 9:00 AM — S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Aug)
⏰ 10:00 AM — Consumer Confidence (Oct) 🚩
Wed Nov 5
⏰ ⚠️ 8:30 AM — Advanced Trade Balance in Goods (Sept) | Retail and Wholesale Inventories — Census; may be delayed
⏰ 10:00 AM — Pending Home Sales (Sept)
⏰ 🚩 2:00 PM — FOMC Rate Decision
⏰ 🚩 2:30 PM — Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
Thu Nov 6
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 25) expected on schedule
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — GDP (Q3, Advance) ⚠️ BEA data; delay possible
⏰ 9:55 AM — Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman speaks
Fri Nov 7
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — PCE and Core PCE (Sept) along with Personal Income, Spending, and Employment Cost Index ⚠️ BEA risk
⏰ 9:45 AM — Chicago PMI (Oct)
⏰ 12:00 PM — Cleveland Fed President Hammack and Atlanta Fed President Bostic remarks
⚠️ Note:
Shutdown risk applies to BEA and Census releases marked with ⚠️
Confirmed live data include Jobless Claims, FOMC decisions, and Fed speeches — these will drive most of the week’s price action.
Friday’s PCE print (if released) remains the key inflation gauge.
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational and informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #Fed #Powell #FOMC #PCE #GDP #JoblessClaims #inflation #bonds #yields #economy #macro
NZDUSD Faces Pressure as Hawkish Fed Supports Dollar Strength!!!Hey Traders, in tomorrow’s trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around the 0.57450 zone. The pair is trading within a broader downtrend and is currently in a correction phase, approaching the trendline and resistance area at 0.57450.
From a fundamental perspective, the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish remarks—hinting that rate cuts in December are unlikely—have provided renewed support for the U.S. Dollar, adding downside pressure to risk-linked currencies like the NZD.
If the pair rejects the 0.57450 zone with strong bearish momentum, further continuation toward recent lows could be expected.
Trade safe,
Joe
BTCUSD — TP1 Hit | Structure Validation Bitcoin tagged its first target at 111,066, wrapping up another disciplined weekend for structured traders.The move is still unfolding, completing the measured leg mapped last week.
Price action remains just behind Thursday’s range as the market quietly fills the week’s single-prints near 111,629.
Technical View
BTC continues to trade inside its mid-range structure.
The current rotation follows a clean, measured rhythm — confirming that prior resistance has been absorbed.
Next focal zone: 111,900, where untested liquidity remains.
A sustained break above that region would signal continuation; a rejection keeps us boxed in for another session.
Macro Overview
Dollar Index (DXY): Holding near 106, giving mild support to risk assets.
Rates: U.S. 10-year yields steady around 4.25 %, showing markets in “wait mode.”
Seasonality: Early November typically brings moderate inflows after October volatility. Expect slower rotations until U.S. sessions return to full volume.
Volume / Flow
Weekend turnover reached roughly $23 billion across BTC pairs — moderate and balanced.
Order flow stayed clean, with no signs of forced liquidation or excess speculation.
Plan
Keep it simple:
111.9 k = magnet zone.
We’re still in range logic — control, not chase.
Note
The system did what it’s designed to do: read rhythm, not emotion.
Institutional Logic. Modern Technology. Real Freedom.
EURUSD: Support & Resistance Analysis For Next Week 🇪🇺🇺🇸
Here is my latest structure analysis and
important supports & resistances for EURUSD for next week.
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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RSI 1W - gambling or smart retest?Rush Street Interactive (RSI) just confirmed a breakout above the 15–16 zone with a textbook retest - a classic bullish setup. The weekly chart shows a clean “cup and handle” structure backed by rising volume. Current pullback is forming right inside the buy zone, suggesting potential continuation.
Fibonacci extensions highlight 30.7 and 43.9 as key upside targets. As long as price holds above 15.5–16.0, the bullish bias stays intact. A breakout above 18.0 would confirm the next leg higher.
Fundamentally , RSI benefits from ongoing online gambling legalization across the US and improving profitability in core states, which could attract institutional inflows.
In the gambling world, luck rarely repeats - but this chart looks like the house might finally lose.
Weekly Market Outlook: Nifty, BankNifty & S&P 500Nifty (25722) slipped ~70 pts this week, staying exactly within my projected range of 26250–25350. The weekly candle formed a shooting star, signalling selling pressure from higher levels.
A close below 25711 can extend downside toward 25450–25300.
On the upside, only a close above 25860 can open a move toward 26100–26150.
BankNifty held firm above 57600, but a dip below 57450 could pull it to 57000–56750.
A breakout above 57900 with volume can take it toward 58469–58577 (ATH) — this will be key to any Nifty recovery.
S&P 500 closed at an all-time high of 6840, just shy of the crucial Fib level 6959. Sustaining above 6800 can push it to 6920–7009, while a drop below 6780 may trigger a pullback toward 6689/6568.
Historically, November brings a healthy 4–7% correction after strong October rallies. So a dip toward Nifty 25150–25200 wouldn’t be surprising — it may just set up the next leg higher.
🔹 Nifty Range: 26150–25250
🔹 BankNifty Key Zone: 57450–57900
🔹 Global Cue: S&P 500 near Fib resistance 6959
Emotional Discipline and Risk Control in Trading🧠 1. Why Emotional Discipline Matters
Emotional discipline means sticking to your plan regardless of fear or greed.
Markets are designed to test your patience, confidence, and decision-making. Every losing trade tempts you to change your system — but consistency wins.
✅ Key habits of emotionally disciplined traders:
They accept losses without revenge trading.
They follow rules, not impulses.
They manage expectations — no trade will make them rich overnight.
💰 2. Risk Control — Protect Before You Profit
Your risk management defines your survival. Successful traders think in probabilities, not certainties. They never risk too much on one idea.
📏 Golden Rules of Risk Control:
Risk 1–2% of your capital per trade.
Always use a stop-loss, never a “mental” one.
Define your R:R ratio (minimum 1:2 or better).
Never add to a losing position — only to confirmed winners.
Risk control is not about avoiding losses — it’s about limiting damage and staying consistent over time.
🧩 3. How to Strengthen Emotional Discipline
Like a muscle, discipline grows with routine. Try this daily:
Pre-trade routine – review your plan before every session.
Post-trade journal – log your emotions, not just results.
Take breaks – emotional fatigue leads to poor judgment.
Detach from outcomes – focus on process, not profit.
💡 Tip: When you reduce emotional pressure, your clarity and accuracy both improve.
⚙️ 4. Professional Mindset Shift
Amateurs chase profit; professionals protect capital.
Each trade is just one data point — not a reflection of your worth. Once you start thinking like a risk manager first, your results change naturally.
🗣️ “Discipline is choosing what you want most over what you want now.”
📊 Conclusion
To grow as a trader, focus on controlling yourself before controlling the market.
Emotional stability + strict risk control = long-term success.
Be the trader who executes with logic, not emotion. 🧘♂️
ETH/USD Short Setup: Bearish Reversal Toward $3,830 TargetA short (sell) trade setup for Ethereum (ETH/USD).
The entry zone is around $3,870–$3,880.
The stop loss is set at $3,909.71, protecting against upside breakouts.
The target is $3,830.85, suggesting a downside move of about $40.
The price action and drawn arrow indicate expectations of a bearish move after a small consolidation
ASPN - cup, handle, and maybe the moonAspen Aerogels (ASPN) shows a textbook “cup and handle” pattern on the daily chart. The stock broke above the MA50 and MA200, forming a golden cross - a clear signal of trend reversal. The buy zone sits around 7.4–7.8 , where price has twice found support. Holding above 8.0 keeps the door open toward 11.3, 13.7, and possibly 16.0 - key supply levels from previous distribution.
On the fundamental side , ASPN benefits from strong interest in energy-efficient materials and aerogels used in green construction and EV insulation. With US policy support for clean tech, the company may catch a new growth wave.
Tactically , as long as price stays above 7.8 , the setup remains bullish. Break above 9.0 confirms further upside, while a drop below 7.0 cancels the pattern.
Every cup looks perfect until someone shakes the table - let’s see if this one stays steady.
NZDUSD: Bearish Trend Continues! 🇺🇸🇳🇿
NZDUSD will most likely continue falling next week,
following a confirmed breakout of a support line of a bearish flag pattern
on a daily time frame.
I will expect a bearish continuation at least to 0.5685 level.
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SILVER 4H - double top before the dropAfter a strong rally, silver retested the 49.0–49.5 area aligning with the key 0.618 Fibonacci level. On the 4H chart, we see a clear double-top pattern with falling volume and oscillator divergence. Price already broke below the short-term trendline and failed to hold above resistance - a classic sign of fading bullish momentum.
Fundamentally, silver faces pressure as the dollar stabilizes and rate-cut expectations fade. Industrial demand from Asia is cooling too, reducing the “safe-haven” appeal.
Tactically, while price stays below 49.5, the path of least resistance is down toward 43.8 and possibly 41.1 - key accumulation zones. A breakout above 50.0 would cancel the bearish setup.
Every silver rally ends the same way - right when everyone starts to believe it’ll never end.
Why Traders Get Wiped Out in the First 30 MinutesIf you’ve been trading Forex for a while, you’ve probably heard this saying:
___“Don’t jump into a trade right when the London session opens.”
And that advice is absolutely true.
The first 30 minutes of the London session are where most retail traders get burned out.
Not because they’re unlucky - but because that’s how the market works.
1. London Open: Liquidity Surges – Chaos Begins
When London opens , the Asian session is winding down.
This overlap creates a burst of liquidity , leading to sharp volatility.
Banks, hedge funds, and institutions begin positioning their orders.
Dozens of pending orders are triggered at once.
The result?
Price moves like a wild beast - violent spikes, fake breakouts, and sudden reversals.
Retail traders see the strong moves, get excited, jump in…
and get wiped out before the real trend even starts.
2. The Trap Called “Early Breakout”
One of the classic London session traps is the false breakout.
You see price breaking a key level, think: “That’s it! A clear signal!”, and you enter.
But minutes later, the market reverses — and your trade vanishes with it.
This isn’t random.
Smart money players intentionally create these fake breakouts to trigger the crowd’s orders — buys above resistance, sells below support — then reverse to accumulate positions at better prices.
An old trick, but still brutally effective — and every morning, retail traders keep falling for it.
3. FOMO – The Silent Account Killer
Nothing messes with a trader’s mind like seeing a massive candle explode right after the open.
You feel like you’re missing the move of the day.
That’s when FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) takes control — and discipline disappears.
But here’s the truth:
The first 30 minutes aren’t for making money — they’re for reading the market.
Professional traders don’t chase candles; they wait and watch to see which side truly dominates.
Retail traders, on the other hand, trade on emotion — and the market always punishes emotion.
4. So, What Should You Do?
Simple: Do nothing.
Let the chaos settle.
Watch who takes control — the buyers or the sellers.
Wait for the post-fakeout structure to form — that’s where the real opportunities appear.
Many professional traders use what’s called the “London Fakeout Strategy.”
They don’t fight the fakeout — they wait for the reaction after the fakeout to trade with the real direction of the market.
Because the real edge isn’t in prediction — it’s in patience.
💡 Coming Soon:
Would you like me to write Part 2: “The London Strategy Playbook” — a detailed guide on how to trade after the first 30 minutes of the London session,
with real examples and clear strategies?
AMZN Bullish Breakout: Retest Above 238 Toward 255–265AMZN just cleared a four-month rectangle (214–238) with a decisive late-October surge, shifting the daily trend back to bullish. Price now rides above the 20/60/120-day MAs with expanded volatility—classic post-breakout behavior. The former lid at 238 flips to support, while the next clear shelf sits near the psychological 255.
Primary path: look for a constructive pullback into 238–242 to validate the breakout. A daily close above 242, a 1H close >248, or a continuation break through 250.50 can serve as triggers. If buyers defend 238 on the retest, the path of least resistance favors a push into 252–254, then the measured round-number objective at 255, with extension toward 265 if momentum persists and volume stays supportive.
If 238 fails on a decisive close, treat it as a false break and expect rotation back into the prior range, with 230 as the magnet. Invalidation for the bullish idea sits on a firm daily close back below 238; conservative risk placement can sit around 235–236 to protect against a failed retest.
This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations
SPY Bullish Breakout: Flag Setup Aims for 700–715SPY remains in a strong 1D uptrend, printing higher highs and higher lows from June through November. Price continues to respect the 20-day MA as dynamic support, with a clean demand zone near $671.72. Overhead, the recent all-time high at $689.76 aligns with the upper boundary of a developing bull flag (upper trendline ≈ $688). Structure is bullish; momentum stays positive while volatility cools after October’s expansion.
Primary path: a daily close above $689.76/$690 confirms the flag breakout and likely drives a continuation toward the psychological $700 handle first, then the $710–$715 extension as participation broadens. Alternatively, a constructive pullback into $671–$675 offers a dip-buy zone so long as the 20-day MA holds. If $671.72 fails decisively, watch the 60-day MA around $658.57 as the next support area.
Triggers and risk: Break-and-hold above $690 or a strong rebound from $671 activates longs; scale out near $700 with room for $710–$715 if momentum persists. Invalidation for breakout entries sits below the recent consolidation lows around $678; for dip buys, a break under the prior swing low near $668 negates the immediate bullish thesis. A daily close below $671 would be an early bearish warning. This is a study, not financial advice. Manage risk and invalidations
XAUUSD – “A Tailwind from the Fed” Ignites Gold’s Rally!Hey traders,
After the Fed officially cut interest rates , gold reacted sharply, jumping nearly 2% on October 30. This isn’t just a short-term boost for the bulls — it’s a clear signal that capital is flowing back into safe-haven assets , especially as the U.S.–China trade uncertainty continues to linger.
On the 4H chart, price action remains within a medium-term descending channel , but the 3,950 – 4,000 zone is turning into a strong accumulation area . Buyers are clearly defending this zone before a potential breakout toward the 4,150 resistance.
If price holds above 3,950 and breaks through the upper boundary of the channel, a bullish reversal could be confirmed, paving the way toward 4,200 and beyond.
Trading plan (for reference):
Buy on dips around 3,950 – 3,970.
Targets: 4,150 – 4,200.
Stop loss: Below 3,930.
The Fed has just turned on the green light, and the market seems ready — gold may be gearing up for its next leg higher.
Buckle up, because the XAUUSD train might be about to depart!
Gold Technical Outlook: Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?Market Context
Gold recently hit fresh all-time highs near $4,400 in mid-October after dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, but has since paused as traders digest the news. The price is consolidating around the $4,000 area, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war, creating a crucial juncture for gold’s short-term trend.
Technical Breakdown
• Trend:
Gold had been climbing steadily along a rising support trendline , but that line has now been broken . This signals that the recent uptrend may be on hold or reversing in the near term.
• Resistances:
The chart shows a classic double-top pattern , with peaks around 4,210–4,225 . After retesting this zone and failing, sellers took control. There’s also a minor resistance zone near 4,040 , which capped a recent bounce.
In short, bulls must reclaim 4,040 first, a breakout above this would open the path toward 4,210–4,225 .
• Support:
Key support lies near 3,914 . This level held strong during earlier pullbacks even after the trendline broke.
If gold retests 3,914 and holds, it could provide a solid base for buyers, but a decisive break below it would confirm downside continuation.
• RSI (Momentum):
The 14-period RSI is hovering near 50 , showing a neutral stance. We can observe both bearish divergence (as price formed a double top while RSI made a lower high) and bullish divergence (as RSI formed higher lows while price dipped).
This mix of signals means momentum is indecisive , traders should wait for confirmation.
What to Watch Next
1. Price Reaction at Key Levels
Watch how price reacts around 4,040 and 3,914 .
A break and hold above 4,040 could shift short-term momentum bullish, targeting 4,210–4,225 .
A rejection or breakdown below 3,914 could trigger further selling pressure.
2. RSI Confirmation
A sustained move of RSI above 50 supports bullish momentum, especially if price also rises.
Conversely, a drop below 45–40 would reinforce bearish sentiment.
If price breaks above the double top and RSI makes a higher high , bearish divergence is invalidated, confirming strength.
But if price breaks below support and RSI follows with new lows , the bullish divergence fails, favoring sellers.
Summary
Gold’s short-term trend depends on how it reacts at these key levels (4,040 and 3,914) .
The market is at a decision point, either breakout or breakdown.
Combining price structure with RSI confirmation can help traders stay aligned with the next impulsive move.
Analysis by @TraderRahulPal | More analysis & educational content on my profile.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trade responsibly with proper risk management.






















