Gold | Waiting for CPI & FED rate cut | Priority Buy at support🟡 XAU/USD – 11/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
US PPI yesterday : Wholesale prices dropped sharply, below forecasts → strengthening expectations of a FED rate cut.
FED probabilities : 100% odds for a -25bps cut next week, and even 16% of investors bet on -50bps.
Today : US CPI & Jobless Claims – key data to assess inflation & labor, determining the specific cut.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : FED will certainly cut rates, so Gold remains supported in its bullish trend. Short-term fluctuations may occur due to sentiment or surprises (e.g., tariff news from Trump).
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance) :
Bearish OB: 3645 – 3650 (near-term resistance)
Weak High: 3674 (target if breakout succeeds)
Golden Harbor (Support) :
Near support: 3622
FVG Dock: 3603
Bullish OB: 3581 – 3585 (strong mid-term support)
Market Structure :
H1 shows a short-term bearish BoS, retesting support.
Main trend remains bullish → possible pullback to 3622 or 3603 before rallying toward 3670+.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority with trend)
Entry 1: 3621 – 3623 (Scalping)
SL: 3619
TP: 3625 – 3630 – 3635 – 3640 – 36XX
Entry 2 (FVG): 3603 – 3605
SL: 3592
TP: 3610 – 3615 – 3625 – 365x
Entry 3 (Bullish OB): 3581 – 3585
SL: 3572
TP: 3600 – 3620 – 3640
⚡ Sell (only short scalp at resistance)
Sell Zone: 3645 – 3650
SL: 3658
TP: 3635 – 3628 – 3622
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails remain full of wind as the FED is almost certain to cut rates. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3622 – 3603) and the deeper OB 3581 – 3585 are safe havens to follow the bullish tide. If the ship touches Storm Breaker 🌊 (3645 – 3650) , only Quick Boarding 🚤 short scalps are recommended. The larger voyage still heads north, steering Gold toward new highs at 367x.”
Technical Analysis
Oil at the crossroads - buy zone or bear trap?Technically , WTI is testing the lower boundary of a converging wedge, hovering around the identified buy zone. Holding above 62–63 is critical for bulls, as a breakdown would expose targets at 61.30 and 58.80. Conversely, a rebound from current levels could trigger a move toward 70.50 and even 77.60 if momentum builds. The daily stochastic hints at a potential reversal to the upside, suggesting that a short-term bounce may be in play.
Fundamentally , the outlook remains tense: weak demand from China and global economic uncertainty are weighing on prices, while OPEC+ continues to maintain control over supply. U.S. inventory swings, with alternating builds and exports, add to volatility. Overall, the setup looks neutral with elevated risk - macro data could easily tip the balance either way.
Tactically , the market is facing a binary scenario: sustained strength above 63 opens the way to 70.50 and 77.60, while failure here brings 58.80–55.60 into focus.
In short, oil is at a crossroads and the next decisive move depends on whether bulls can hold the line.
GBPAUD | Possible Re-entry on 15Min When analyzing price movements on a 4-hour chart, it's important to note that the price is currently coming from a fresh demand zone. This return to the demand zone indicates a potential bullish intent, suggesting that buyers may be stepping in at this level.
Now, if we scale down to the 15-minute chart, we can observe a subtle shift in the price action. There is a trendline liquidity that is positioned just above our identified point of interest (POI), which is complemented by a fair value gap (FVG). This trendline presents an additional confluence that supports the possibility of continued upward movement.
As market participants, we should proceed with caution and closely monitor how price reacts when it approaches this zone once more. It is also beneficial to take the time to observe these patterns and phenomena in your own analysis to deepen your understanding. Happy trading!
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Thursday, Sept 11, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 CPI Day: August Consumer Price Index at 8:30 AM — the main macro print of the week.
🚩 ECB Decision: 8:15 AM ET — Europe’s call on rates adds global cross-asset volatility.
📉 Labor + growth mix: Jobless claims alongside CPI sharpen the Fed outlook.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:15 AM — ECB Rate Decision
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Consumer Price Index (CPI, Aug)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims (weekly)
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #CPI #ECB #inflation #Fed #jobs #bonds #economy
GBP/USD Stalls at 1.3390 Resistance - What Next?GBP/USD is trading around 1.3528, consolidating within a clear range defined by resistance at 1.3589 and support at 1.3365. The pair has been oscillating inside this zone, with no decisive breakout yet.
Key technical observations:
Support and Resistance: The lower boundary at 1.3365 has acted as a strong demand zone, while repeated tests of 1.3589 highlight firm resistance. Until either level is breached, the pair remains range-bound.
Moving Averages: Price is hovering above both the 50-SMA (1.3489) and the 200-SMA (1.3442), suggesting underlying bullish bias, though momentum is subdued.
Momentum Indicators: RSI is steady at 53, reflecting balanced momentum. The MACD is slightly positive but flattening, in line with consolidation.
Overall, GBP/USD is in a sideways phase with a bullish tilt as long as it holds above the 200-SMA. A break above 1.3589 would confirm upside continuation, while a drop below 1.3365 would expose the downside. -MW
GBP/JPY Perking Up - Key Levels to WatchChatGPT said:
GBP/JPY is consolidating near 199.40, holding just below the 200.00 psychological level. Price has been moving sideways within a tight range, signaling indecision after a strong rally from the July lows.
Key technical factors:
Support and Resistance: The pair is trading above both the 50-day SMA (198.65) and 200-day SMA (194.34), reinforcing a bullish bias. Immediate resistance sits at 200.00–200.50, while near-term support is found around 198.00.
Momentum Indicators: The RSI is steady around 54, reflecting balanced momentum without clear overbought or oversold signals. The MACD remains marginally positive, suggesting bullish momentum is intact but subdued.
Trend Outlook: The broader uptrend remains supported as long as GBP/JPY holds above the 50-day SMA. A breakout above 200.50 could trigger fresh upside, while a close below 198.00 would point to a deeper pullback toward the mid-190s.
Overall, GBP/JPY is in consolidation mode, with bulls needing a breakout above resistance to resume the uptrend. Until then, range trading is likely to dominate. -MW
What Could Break Bitcoin's (BTC/USD) Consolidation Phase?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is consolidating after a sharp pullback from its summer highs, with price currently trading near $113,472. The chart shows a well-defined range between support at $107,300 and resistance at $123,200, suggesting a potential breakout setup in the coming weeks.
Key technical points:
Support and Resistance: Price is holding above the 50-day SMA (114,742) but remains below the recent swing high, keeping BTC in a neutral-to-bullish zone. Stronger support rests at $100,000, where the 200-day SMA also aligns.
Momentum Indicators: The RSI is stabilizing near 51, showing neither overbought nor oversold conditions, while the MACD histogram is flattening, hinting at reduced bearish momentum.
Trend Outlook: Despite recent weakness, the longer-term uptrend remains intact as BTC trades above the rising 200-day SMA. A break above $123,200 would signal renewed bullish momentum and potentially open the way to fresh highs. Conversely, a close below $107,300 risks deeper retracement toward $100,000.
Overall, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase with buyers defending support. A decisive breakout from this range will likely set the tone for the next major move. -MW
Gold - Caution ahead of US PPI report | Priority on Sell setups🟡 XAU/USD – 10/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – Market Context
US 10-year bond yields rebound, signaling the market is awaiting key inflation data.
At 07:30, US PPI report will be released – a crucial figure that could strongly influence FED rate expectations.
Investors are also eyeing US CPI in the coming days to assess the inflation outlook.
The US Supreme Court accepted Trump’s appeal, but this news has not yet had a notable impact on Gold.
⏩ Captain’s Summary: Ahead of inflation data, Gold often tends to correct lower due to cautious sentiment.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Key Resistance):
Bearish OB: 3654 – 3660 (short-term upper cap)
ATH Watchtower: 3700 – 3702 (Sell Zone – possible new ATH test)
Golden Harbor (Strong Support):
Buy Zone: 3601 – 3602
OB Dock: 3582 – 3585
Currently, price is around 3640 – 3645, after a technical rebound from support. High probability that Gold will retest nearby resistance before a downward correction.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios
⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL – Daily Priority)
Entry 1: 3654 – 3660
SL: 3668
TP: 3654 → 3650 → 3618 → 3610
Entry 2 – ATH Test: 3701 – 3703
SL: 3711
TP: 3688 → 3675 → 3665 → 365x
✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Only at deep support)
Buy Zone: 3601 – 3603
SL: 3592
TP: 3610 → 3620 → 3630
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The golden ship faces turbulent seas today as it sails near Storm Breaker 🌊 (3654 – 3660) . Before the fierce winds called US PPI , sailors should prioritize dropping anchor with short-term SELL positions at resistance. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3601 – 3603) remains a safe haven below, but only when the ship corrects deeply should it dock. On this voyage, Quick Boarding 🚤 is for scalp maneuvers, while the main current is still steered by the stormy waves of inflation.”
BNBUSDT — Bullish consolidation ahead of resumed uptrendThe bullish consolidation in BNBUSDT that I’ve been watching has begun to resolve in the market’s favor. Price action is coiling after two consecutive white spinning-top candles, a pattern that signals indecision but also a readiness to resume the prior trend when confirmed. The move has occurred on heavier volume concentrated in the current price area, and the pair sits roughly halfway between two key Fibonacci retracement levels — a location that commonly precedes a corrective bounce rather than a full trend reversal. Trend Strength sits just above zero, suggesting a fragile bullish bias rather than conviction.
Viewed on a slightly wider timeframe, BNBUSDT is grinding inside a shallow range that resembles a consolidation brick; the path of least resistance still leans toward the upside provided the short-term structure holds. Conventionally, the presence of consecutive indecisive candles on increased volume near mid-Fibonacci territory combined with a mildly positive momentum indicator favors a corrective rebound rather than an extended sell-off.
Key short-term levels to monitor on the way up are the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement as the likeliest target for the initial bounce, with a secondary cap at the 50% retracement if buyers show enough follow-through. Beyond those, a return toward prior highs remains plausible, though that area will present a zone of elevated resistance and will need clear volume-backed breakout confirmation to be trusted.
RSI and other momentum readings are consistent with a measured recovery rather than an impulsive surge, so expect the move to unfold over the coming 2–3 weeks. If the market fails to sustain above the 38.2% level and momentum turns down, the alternate scenario would be a continuation of the consolidation or a deeper retracement toward the lower Fibonacci boundary.
Short summary:
Setup : consolidation with two white spinning-top candles, heavier volume locally, price midway between two Fibonacci levels, Trend Strength slightly > 0.
Base case : corrective bounce to 38.2% (primary) — up to 50% (maximum) — then continuation higher toward prior highs (resistance zone).
Timeframe : ~2–3 weeks.
EURUSD Pullback Toward 1.16700 as DXY Nears Key ResistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring EURUSD for a buying opportunity around the 1.16700 zone. The pair is trading in an uptrend, with price currently correcting toward this key support/resistance level.
Structure: The broader bias remains bullish, but price is retracing after recent highs.
Key level in focus: 1.16700 — a significant area where buyers may look to rejoin the trend.
Fundamentals: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is approaching a strong resistance area around 98.170, which aligns with its broader downtrend. A rejection from this level could reinforce USD weakness and support EURUSD upside momentum.
Trade safe,
Joe.
XAUUSD Explodes: Strong Uptrend and Breakout OpportunityCurrently, XAUUSD is moving within a clear rising channel on the 2-hour chart. The bullish momentum of gold remains very strong, and we can see that the price is continuously breaking higher highs, pushing the trend upwards. However, it is important to note that the market is awaiting important news such as CPI and PPI from the US tonight and tomorrow.
These news releases could impact the USD, which in turn affects the price of gold. A CPI higher than expected could put pressure on gold, as the Fed may maintain a high interest rate policy, while weak PPI could help gold continue its upward trend.
However, technical analysis shows that the current bullish trend of gold is still showing no signs of weakening. There is strong support at the 3,620 level , confirmed by EMA 34 and EMA 89, indicating that the bullish trend remains stable. The nearest resistance zone is between 3,675 and 3,700 , where the price has faced difficulties breaking through before.
If the price breaks through this resistance level , we can expect a strong breakout towards higher levels.
EURUSD POSSIBLE BUY SETUP 📈 EURUSD – Possible Bullish Reversal from Demand Zone
Description:
EURUSD is currently pulling back after a break of structure (BOS) to the upside. Price is approaching a demand/support zone around 1.1640 – 1.1600, which could provide a strong base for a bullish continuation.
Demand Zone (possible entry): 1.1640 – 1.1600
Stop Loss: Below 1.1590
First Target: 1.1720 – 1.1750
Main Target: 1.1800+
Bias:
I’m bullish on EURUSD if price respects the demand zone around 1.1640 – 1.1600.
Risk Note:
⚠️ This is analysis only, not financial advice. Always apply proper risk management.
EURJPY: Test of Critical Demand Zone 🇪🇺🇯🇵
EURJPY is stuck on a major daily horizontal demand zone.
A recent breakout of a resistance line of a falling parallel channel
on an hourly time frame indicates an intraday strength of the buyers.
I will expect a pullback at least to 173.0 level.
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GBPJPY POSSIBLE SELL SETUP 📉 GBPJPY – Possible Rejection at 200.200 Resistance
Description:
GBPJPY is currently approaching a key supply/resistance zone around 200.200. Price has shown a break of structure (BOS) earlier, and now it may retest before continuing lower.
Resistance zone: 200.000 – 200.200
Potential entry: Around 200.000 (waiting for confirmation of rejection).
Target zone: 198.200 – 198.500
Stop Loss: Above 200.600
Bias:
I’m bearish on GBPJPY unless the price closes above 200.600.
Risk Note:
⚠️ This is just analysis, not financial advice. Always manage risk properly.
I share analysis like this regularly. If you find it useful, feel free to follow me here on TradingView for more updates 🙌.
Energy Giant on Fire – GAIL Ready for TakeoffThis is the 4-hour timeframe chart of GAIL India Limited.
The stock is currently trading within a well-defined parallel channel and is positioned near its support zone at 165–171.
If this support level sustains, we may witness higher prices in GAIL, with potential targets in the 185–190 range.
Thank you.
DUOL: Premium Growth, Golden Ratio PullbackDuolingo is one of the rare consumer apps that has turned daily engagement into real money. Revenue is growing +40% year-over-year, gross margins sit above 70%, and the company is debt-free with over $1B in cash on the balance sheet. ROIC has now climbed into double digits, proving the model scales.
Yes, the valuation is rich — about 113× trailing earnings and 57× forward — but investors are paying for a clear growth runway: paid subscribers are compounding fast, new verticals like Math and Music are gaining traction, and the Duolingo English Test is carving out its own niche. For long-term holders, that combination of growth + financial safety is exactly what creates durable value.
Technically speaking, the stock has corrected sharply in recent months, mostly due to valuation concerns and profit-taking after a strong run. It almost feels like trying to catch a falling knife, but that’s exactly why it’s worth putting the gloves on and looking for strong support.
Around $200, there’s a powerful confluence of signals:
- Trendline support zone (both from wicks and closing prices)
- Previous highs that now act as support
- Fibonacci golden ratio (61.8%) retracement
- Round number magnet at $200
- Weekly EMA200
Do your homework, and if these align with your thesis, this could be a compelling setup. It’s definitely an area worth watching.
Regards,
Vaido
USD/JPY: Breakout from Japan's PoliticsUSD/JPY is currently fluctuating within a range-bound channel, with strong support at 146.600 and significant resistance at 148.500. The 4-hour chart shows that the price is stabilizing around EMA 34 at 147.620, maintaining a strong upward momentum.
Impact from Japan's Politics
On September 9, 2025, news of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's resignation caused political instability in Japan, weakening the Japanese yen against the US dollar. Investors are concerned that the looser monetary policy from his successor could further weaken the yen, paving the way for USD/JPY to continue rising.
Strong Growth Outlook
With a solid support base and the USD benefiting from the yen's weakness, USD/JPY is on a strong upward trend, targeting 148.500, and potentially extending towards 150.000 if political and economic factors continue to drive this momentum.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 10/09/2025Nifty is expected to witness a gap up opening, continuing its momentum within the broader consolidation zone. The index has been trading in a tight range, and today’s levels will be crucial to determine the intraday direction.
On the upside, if Nifty sustains above 24,700–24,750, buying momentum could push it towards 24,850, 24,900, and 24,950+. A breakout above 25,050 would signal strong bullish sentiment, opening the way for further targets at 25,150, 25,200, and 25,250+.
On the downside, weakness may come into play if Nifty slips below 24,950–24,900. This could trigger a reversal towards 24,850, 24,800, and 24,750 levels. A break below 24,700 may extend the fall with deeper downside possibilities.
Overall, Nifty remains in a consolidation phase, and traders should focus on the breakout levels for clear intraday opportunities. A disciplined approach with strict stop-losses will be key in managing volatility around these zones.
GBPJPY – Continuing to RiseGBPJPY is currently in a strong uptrend, moving within an ascending price channel. After successfully testing the support at 198.300 JPY, the price has bounced and is now heading towards the resistance level at 200.800 JPY.
On the H8 chart, GBPJPY is staying above the EMA34 and EMA89, indicating that the buying pressure is still strong and the uptrend could continue. The 198.300 JPY area will be an important support level if the price retraces, and if the price breaks through 200.800 JPY, it may open up the next target.
Overall, GBPJPY continues to follow the uptrend, and any pullbacks will provide opportunities to enter long positions.
ETHUSDT – Sideways with Long-Term OpportunitiesCurrently, ETHUSDT is trading in a sideways range, fluctuating between key support and resistance levels. After facing resistance at 4,360 USD, the price has corrected and is now moving within the range of 4,170 USD – 4,360 USD. The market is lacking decisiveness and there are no strong signals to break these levels.
On the H4 chart, ETHUSDT remains below the downtrend line, indicating hesitation in breaking out. The price has not been able to surpass EMA34 and EMA89, reflecting uncertainty in the trend.
In this sideways market, the price could continue to fluctuate within the 4,170 USD support and 4,360 USD resistance. If a breakout occurs, ETHUSDT may target higher levels, especially if strong capital inflows continue.
Overall, the sideways trend still dominates. However, the market could change quickly if macroeconomic factors or shifts in monetary policy and major events come into play.
XAUUSD – The Bullish Momentum Continues, Targeting 3,700 USD?Hello traders, as we can see, gold surged strongly yesterday , breaking through key resistance and closing near the highs. Safe-haven flows continue to pour into the precious metal, while the USD weakens on expectations that the Fed may soon ease its policy. This development further strengthens the belief that gold remains firmly in an uptrend.
The US PPI report forecast shows producer inflation dropping sharply from 0.9% to 0.3% . This signals that the Fed may cut rates sooner, weakening the USD and further boosting gold. Amid global uncertainty, gold continues to stand out as the safe-haven asset of choice.
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD is still moving within an ascending channel, consistently forming Higher Highs and Higher Lows. The price is currently trading around 3,647 USD, holding firmly above both EMA34 and EMA89. The 3,630 USD zone has become a key support level, where a slight pullback could occur before the next leg higher.
The most reasonable strategy is to Buy on dip around 3,630 – 3,635 , with a stop loss below 3,610. Short-term targets lie near 3,680, while the extended target is 3,700 USD – a major resistance level where profit-taking pressure may intensify. With this setup, the risk-to-reward ratio is highly attractive.
Wishing you all successful trades!
$SPY / $SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 10, 2025🔮 AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios — Wednesday, Sept 10, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving Headlines
🚩 PPI Hits: August Producer Price Index at 8:30 AM — critical input for inflation trend into CPI (Thu).
📈 Yields in focus: Bond market watching supply + inflation mix; $TLT/ TVC:TNX extra sensitive.
💬 Fed chatter: Post-Apple event, markets shift back to Fed data dependency into next week’s FOMC.
📊 Key Data & Events (ET)
⏰ 🚩 8:30 AM — Producer Price Index (PPI, Aug)
⏰ 7:00 AM — MBA Mortgage Applications (weekly)
⏰ 10:30 AM — EIA Petroleum Status Report
⚠️ Disclaimer: Educational/informational only — not financial advice.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #SPY #SPX #PPI #inflation #Fed #bonds #energy #economy