In 2022 we witnessed the fastest tightening cycle ever made by the FED.
As I have covered before in the beginning of 2022 - the speed of the tightening (no so much the aboslute value) are key in how the general market indexes are going to act. The faster the speed the more pressure the market will see while trying to make a move higher - hence the more bearish the...
2023 WATCHLIST
A series of stocks that i will be monitoring at the beginning of 2023
Here is a new issue from the Biomed Industry.
Relative Strength (IBD): 97
IPO: 2007
Sales acceleration:
Jun-22: 12%
Sep-22: 80%
Funds acceleration:
Jun-22: 708
Sep-22: 743
2023 WATCHLIST
A series of stocks that i will be monitoring at the beginning of 2023
Here is a new issue from the Beverages Industry.
Relative Strength (IBD): 97
IPO: 2022
Sales acceleration:
Jun-22: 137%
Sep-22: 98%
Funds acceleration:
Jun-22: 414
Sep-22: 484
2023 WATCHLIST
A series of stocks that i will be monitoring at the beginning of 2023
Here is a new issue from the Construction/Mining Industry.
Relative Strength (IBD): 95
Sales acceleration:
Jun-22: 11%
Sep-22: 21%
Funds acceleration:
Jun-22: 2652
Sep-22: 2558
2023 WATCHLIST
A series of stocks that i will be monitoring at the beginning of 2023
Here is a new issue from the Semiconductor Industry.
Relative Strength (IBD): 96
IPO: 2022
Sales acceleration:
Jun-22: 41%
Sep-22: 38%
WHAT IT IS
Since 1988 the Russell 2000 has outperfomed the SPX 73.5% of the time during the end of December into 1st of January.
Classical David vs Goliath. Read more below👇
THE DETAILS
Testing from 1988 to 2021 the period of 15th Dec through to 1st Jan, we see that Russell 2000 has outperformed the SPX 25 out of all 34 years.
This is a win rate of 73.5% ....
Todays study follows analysis on the Post-War Recession Start Dates.
We evaluate the price action the 12 months before Start of Recession and 12 months after Start of the Recession.
What we can easily evaluate that once and IF a Recession is confirmed we have about 5.8% more (ON AVERAGE) to the downside and the next 2 months are most volatile.
From then on we...
Today we have FOMC FED announcement! This is likely going to create volatility in the market.
If we measure the how long it takes for a market to reach bottom we can see that the average time after the first FED cut is 9 months.
From previous post we saw that the first RAISE was in 11 May 2022. Now if the FED pauses or cuts rates will start our timing of the...
[bBACKGROUND
In previous idea I showed that it is very significant if we are going to get recession or not.
Link here:
WHAT WE ARE LOOKING AT
Here we look at what % decline did the SP500 experience BEFORE the start of a recession*.
HOW TO USE IT
We see that the average decline is -6%, HOWEVER we are currently already at -25%.
This indicates that...
The calculations use the S&P Dow Jones Indicies.
"The past doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes"
WHAT IS THIS IDEA
It plots all Bear Markets from 1900 to present day and separating them with those who have coincided with Recessions and those who are independent of recessions
Analyse the current Bear compared to previous precedents to determine the...
I am buying $REGN again here.
I like the base, the volume signatures are great and it is showing great strength.
The industry is Biotech (and it is in top 30 industries currently in the stock market)
The IBD RS rating is 95
Fund ownership is increasing:
- notable funds owning it are: American Century Focused Dynam, JP Morgan, FIdelity Contrafun, MFS Frowth,...
The market is a forward discounting mechanism and looking back my stance is that the stock market are anticipating a pause in the FED stance. Hinted on Wednesday by FED Chairman Powell who said "smaller rates increases are likely ahead" as soon as December.
If the market is anticipating a pause, THE GENERAL MARKET INDECIES are likely to push forward. This of...
As we are making lower lows in the Nasdaq Composite, the % of stocks participating in the rallies increases.
This is exactly the opposite to what we were seeing in the November highs when we said that the market is topping.
This is great bullish sign.
IDEA 3 OF 3
As the market transitioned from high volatility bear market to a low volatility bull market we saw that the VIX was transitioning and once it pushed BELOW the 20 level it stayed long term there giving ability for the market to rally up.
We want to use this precedent to study the current market and determine probable direction.
IDEA 2 OF 3
A level under 20 is generally where we see the market rallying. Currently we are above 20 but this is still elevated compared to the times we are trending up.
IDEA 1 OF 3
The bear market has been characterised by a moves of the VIX between 20 and 32.
We will see if the current market has legs by the way it acts from here.
Idea 2 will show how the VIX acts when we are easily moving up
