18.09.25 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:GBPCAD
FX:NZDCAD
FX:AUDCHF
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
Trend Analysis
Coinbase token DEGEN: Bull Flag signals potential 340% rallyAfter a significant 70% correction from its highs in May, DEGEN appears to be setting the stage for a strong bullish reversal. The above chart, prepared from observations on weekly and daily timeframes, indicates the correction has now concluded.
Support and Resistance
The former resistance level from March and April (2) has now been established as a support zone since early September. This "flip" from resistance to support is a classic technical signal.
Trend Reversal
A clear trend reversal is visible in both price action and the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Price action has broken out of its short-term downtrend channel, and the RSI has similarly broken above its own downtrend resistance, confirming renewed momentum.
Bull Flag pattern
A well defined bull flag pattern has formed on the daily chart. This is a continuation pattern that typically follows a strong, impulsive move (the flagpole). The current consolidation is the "flag," and it is expected to lead to another impulsive move equal in size to the first.
Price Target and Forecast
Flagpole Measurement: The first impulsive wave from its low to the recent high was approximately 340%. A repeat of this impulsive move from the base of the bull flag projects a price target of 1.5 cents. Assuming the next impulsive wave follows a similar duration to the first, we can anticipate this forecast is reached in approximately 35 days.
Conclusion
The technical setup for DEGEN is highly bullish. The combination of a confirmed support level, a trend reversal in both price and RSI, and the formation of a textbook bull flag pattern provides a high conviction long signal.
Is is possible price action continues to correct? Sure.
Is it probable? No
Ww
Disclaimer: This is for educational purposes and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
Hellena | EUR/USD (4H): LONG to the resistance area 1.18500.Dear colleagues, the upward movement is not over yet and I think wave “3” is not over yet.
At this stage, I believe that the correction has already taken place or will soon end in the support area of 1.16573, then I expect the upward movement to continue to the resistance area of 1.18500.
This is a pretty strong area, as this is where the high of the big wave “3” (Red) is located.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
$OPEN: The Rhythm of the Market - The Exhalation After the InhalGreetings, fellow traders.
We navigate the markets not as a series of disconnected events, but as a continuous, flowing rhythm. There is the inhale—the expansion, the breakout, the euphoria. And there is the exhale—the contraction, the consolidation, the reversion. After a successful ride on the inhalation of NASDAQ:OPEN , it is wise to pause, observe, and listen to what the chart is telling us now. It seems the market's breath is beginning to turn.
The Technical Landscape
The recent ascent in NASDAQ:OPEN has been powerful, a testament to the bulls' conviction. However, no trend moves in a straight line forever. We are now seeing signs of potential exhaustion—clues that the bears are beginning to stir and fatten up for winter.
RSI Divergence: Notice on the daily chart how price has pushed to new highs, yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is failing to confirm, printing lower highs. This is a classic bearish divergence, suggesting that the momentum behind the rally is waning.
MACD Convergence: The MACD histogram is showing a clear convergence, indicating that the moving averages are coming closer together. This often precedes a potential shift in momentum or a crossover to the downside.
Parabolic Extension: A move from ~$4 to over $10 in such a short time frame is significant. Such rapid ascents often require a period of retracement to find equilibrium before the next directional move can be established.
This is not a prediction of a crash, but an observation of balance. The market inhaled deeply, and now a natural exhalation may be due.
The Philosophy
In moments like these, one must ask: What is my role in this story? The answer is never the same for everyone.
For the long-term investor, this may be nothing more than noise—an opportunity to accumulate according to their plan. For the hyper-active day trader, it's another set of patterns on a lower timeframe. For the swing trader, it may be a moment to take profit from the long side and assess the landscape for a new opportunity. There is no single right answer, only the one that aligns with your system, your timeframe, and your peace of mind. To blindly follow another is to be a salmon swimming against your own current. This analysis is simply one piece of the puzzle. It is up to you to see if and how it fits into your own masterpiece.
An Illustrative Setup
For those whose perspective aligns with a potential reversion to the mean, here is one possible way to frame the opportunity. This is a bearish setup, looking for the "exhale" phase to play out.
Ticker: NASDAQ:OPEN
Bias: Bearish / Mean Reversion
Entry (Short): $9.30
Stop Loss: $10.75 (Positioned above the recent swing high, invalidating the exhaustion thesis if breached).
Take Profit: $6.00 (A level of prior consolidation and potential support).
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~2.23
Trade with clarity, manage your risk with discipline, and remember that every chart is a lesson in market psychology.
Remember: Just shine!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It is for educational and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
NEAR Is Getting Ready for a Bullish MoveNEAR Is Getting Ready for a Bullish Move
I'm liking NEAR at this level. If we look back at the price action from December 2024, it tested the $7.90 area, and now it's building up again.
NEAR is already at a low price, and it could bounce from here. Over the past few months, it has been consolidating and now appears ready to break out of this bullish flat pattern.
A move above $3 could start a strong upward trend.
Let’s see if it happens in the next few days.
Target levels: $3.70, $4.70, $5.90, and $7.90
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
NAS100 - Last Quarter Hype or Abyss?Dear Friends in Trading,
Interesting Read:
investinglive.com
Rate cuts invigorate buying optimism at this time:
1.Investing Institutions are undeterred by "overbought conditions"
2. Will I follow the buying Hype?
3. Marching towards 25000 or a cliff?
4. Am I dragged along into extreme red to maximize annual institutional profits?
5. What does the overbought conditions tell me is the current fair market value?
23700
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
GRT Targets $0.11 as Market Structure ShiftsAfter a corrective phase, GRT has shown signs of recovery. Price swept liquidity at the value area high and reacted strongly off the point of control, which aligned with the golden Fibonacci level. This bounce indicates that demand is re-entering the market.
Key Technical Points
- Support Cluster: POC and 0.618 Fibonacci provide a strong base.
- Market Structure Shift: Higher lows indicate bullish bias forming.
- Next Target: Weekly resistance at $0.11.
The corrective pullback appears to have stabilized, with GRT now attempting to reclaim bullish market structure. A higher-low formation is developing, suggesting accumulation at current levels. For the bullish scenario to be confirmed, price must break above the last swing high, which would set the stage for continuation.
The immediate upside target is $0.11 weekly resistance, a level that has repeatedly capped rallies. A break of this resistance would provide significant momentum for further upside. Volume analysis also supports the bullish scenario, with inflows showing renewed interest.
What to Expect
If GRT maintains its current higher-low structure and bullish volume continues, price is likely to rotate into $0.11 resistance. Traders should watch for confirmation through higher closes and expanding volume.
NZDUSD: A Slow Pair, but a Clear Setup1. What happened before
Although NZDUSD has been a very slow mover lately, the pair remains highly technical. Looking back, the broader downtrend started in 2014, with the decline visible on the chart since 2021. The most recent leg down began exactly one year ago and ended in April at 0.55 – a level that coincided with both the pandemic low and the October 2022 bottom.
2. Key question
Has NZDUSD finally built a foundation for a bullish continuation, or will the market remain trapped in its slow range?
3. Why upside continuation looks possible
• The rebound from April low reached 0.61 resistance before pulling back.
• Importantly, the pullback stopped at 0.58, forming a higher low and aligning with an old support.
• The new rise that followed confirms strong demand at 0.58, suggesting momentum may continue to the upside.
4. Trading plan
• The pair is bullish above 0.58.
• First upside target: 0.61 resistance.
• Longer-term soft target: 0.64.
• Patience is required – NZDUSD is a slow pair, and such a move needs time to develop.
5. Conclusion
NZDUSD might not be the fastest market, but its technical precision makes it worth watching. Above 0.58, the bias stays bullish, with the market slowly but surely building a case for higher levels 🚀
DeGRAM | GOLD under the resistance area📊 Technical Analysis
● XAU/USD rejected the 3,690–3,700 resistance area and broke below the channel support, signaling fading bullish momentum.
● The structure now favors continuation lower, with short-term pullbacks likely capped below 3,678 before targeting the 3,664 and 3,638 supports.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Gold remains pressured as firm U.S. yields and hawkish Fed expectations support the dollar, while easing safe-haven demand limits upside momentum.
✨ Summary
Bearish below 3,678; targets 3,664 → 3,638. Invalidation on a close above 3,690.
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Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
ES - September 18th - Daily Trade PlanSeptember 18th - 5:30am
Before reading this trade plan, IF, you did not read yesterday's take the time to read it first!
(You can see my post in the related publication section)
I wrote yesterday ...
"My main levels I will be watching for a pull back to are 6659, 6653, 6648-50, 6643. The white trend line (6648-50) will continue to be a magnet on any pullback. "
"Our overnight session low is 6653 with high at 6674. IF, we can clear 6674, we should continue higher. I think we will get another pullback, Ideally, to flush the 6653 level and reclaim or even better a deeper scary flush below 6643 and reclaim, then head higher up the levels."
Let's review because we pretty much followed the plan to detail!
6660-6662 became a clear support area but each test and rally could not get higher than 6674.Then around 12pm we lost the support and slowly grinded down to the 6653 area and white trendline.
On my 12:20pm Note I stated "The Fed meeting today could produce any reaction +/- 100pts. I could see us drop below the 6637 level, flush, reclaim and rally to back test the 6660 level. To be bullish, we need to see price reclaim 6684 to continue higher."
What happened after FOMC? We rallied to 6686, dropped to 6628, rallied and flushed again to 6610 then reclaimed the 6634 area and then we rallied and closed at 6661. I stated that the reclaim of 6684 would be bullish.
What happened in the overnight session? We took off and tested 6682, pulled back, rallied to 6692, pulled back and back tested the 6682 level which we have now rallied into some key targets for the week at 6700,6709, 6714, 6720.
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Everyone that has been following my trade plans know that I am a long only ES trader. That means, I patiently wait for pullbacks into Institutional zones and ride with them higher.
Since we are now coming into our overnight session high at 6720, there is not much I can do but wait for a pull back. Let's discuss what areas we can expect a pullback and continuation higher.
Our overnight session low is 6663 with high at 6720. We do not have a ton of structure to work with at this time. We are at all-time highs, market sentiment was already bullish/greedy, and CNBC and all the talking heads will be waking up excited and bullish. Retail traders will be jumping in and chasing with FOMO today and tomorrow.
The first obvious area is the 6696-6700. We should pull back to this area and test it. Any pullback down to no lower than 6682 can build a base, reclaim a level higher and continue up. IF, we lose 6682 it will be a warning sign that this is a massive parabolic move and won't be sustainable. Remember, we have tested the white trendline 3x and closed back above it. It continues to be a bigger term support, but when we close inside it, we will most likely be in the midst of a change of character and a new bear trend could emerge. We have been in a bull market since April, and it has been a great 6 month run. Until this change occurs, we must remain bullish with possible targets higher of 6733, 6750, 6776, 6796, 6809, 6814.
Key Support Levels - 6643, 6649-50 (white trendline), 6663, 6682, 6692, 6696, 6700, 6709
Key Resistance Levels - 6719, 6733, 6750
Upside targets above are 6733, 6750, 6776, 6796, 6809, 6814.
Recap for today's key areas - We need a pull back with some structure to one of the levels, ideally at either 6696-6700, 6692, 6682. We could also build a flag down to 6705-09 and then reclaim 6714, and head to 6733. IF, we go lower than 6682, I would get out the way and wait for a reclaim of 6684. Below 6663 and we will most likely flush below the white trendline and go test the low of 6610 from yesterday.
DO NOT CHASE today! Institutions will pull the rug when they are ready and with this parabolic move overnight, anything can happen today/tomorrow. Follow the plan.
I will post an update around 10am.
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Couple of things about how I color code my levels.
1. Purple shows the weekly Low
2. Red shows the current overnight session High/Low (time of post)
3. Blue shows the previous day's session Low (also other previous day's lows)
4. Yellow Levels are levels that show support and resistance levels of interest.
5. White shows the trendline from the August lows.
The key is whether it can rise above 3.9509
Hello, fellow traders.
Please "Follow" to always get the latest information quickly.
Have a great day.
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(SUIUSDT 1D Chart)
Since the HA-High ~ DOM (60) ranges on the 1W and 1D charts partially overlap, a breakout above the 3.9509-4.7328 range is expected to lead to a sharp rise.
Therefore, the 3.9509-4.7328 range is considered a resistance zone.
The HA-Low and HA-High indicators are converging as price movements move.
If this convergence occurs, the converged range, i.e., the HA-Low ~ HA-High range, can be considered a buy zone.
If the price falls below the 2.4495-2.8161 range, trading should be halted and the situation should be monitored.
Currently, the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart is moving between 2.4495 and 2.8161. Therefore, if the price falls below this level, a stop loss should be considered and a response strategy should be developed.
Based on a basic trading strategy, a buy signal is signaled when support is found in the 2.4495-2.8161 range.
However, if the price falls below the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart, a downtrend is likely, requiring a response strategy.
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I mentioned the resistance range as 3.9509-4.7328. However, since the HA-High ~ DOM (60) range on the 1D chart is 3.9509-4.3260, a buy signal can be made when the price finds support within this range and rises.
However, since the buy signal is near the resistance level, a quick and short response is required.
The first sell range is 4.7328-4.96.
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Thank you for reading to the end.
I wish you successful trading.
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Gold (XAUUSD) – 18 Sep | Watching 3644–3637 Demand Zone for Long🟡 Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis – 18 September
Market Context
• Yesterday’s FOMC event caused extreme volatility, with price spiking to a new all-time high at 3707.5 , followed by sharp selling.
• M15 structure remains bearish, but our key demand zone from yesterday’s analysis is still valid.
• Market may look to grab sell-side liquidity below this zone before any potential move up, so caution is key.
Key Zone to Watch
• Demand Zone : 3644 – 3637 (strong area of interest for potential buy setups).
• Monitor price reaction here before committing capital.
Execution Plan
• Wait for price to respect 3644 – 3637 demand zone
• Look for LTF confirmation before planning a long setup
• If zone is invalidated, step aside and wait for deeper levels
Let price come to your zone — patience turns setups into opportunities.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
TTD could return 200% in the next yearsThe Trade Desk is this big American tech company that basically helps advertisers buy digital ads in a super smart, automated way. They run a platform (called a DSP, or Demand Side Platform) where brands and agencies can set up, manage, and optimize their ad campaigns across tons of channels—like websites, mobile apps, streaming TV, audio, you name it. They’re pretty much the biggest independent player in this space, competing with giants like Google and Amazon.
Now, about the stock crash ,things have been rough lately. Their share price tanked, and here’s why:
First off, their latest financial results were kind of a letdown. For the first time in over eight years , they didn’t hit their own revenue targets. Investors hate surprises like that, so the stock dropped hard, almost 30% in a single day.
On top of that, they’ve been rolling out a new AI-powered platform called Kokai, but apparently, there were some hiccups with the launch. The company admitted they messed up a bit on execution, which didn’t help investor confidence.
Another thing: their stock had gone up a ton last year, it more than doubled at one point. So when the results disappointed, people freaked out and started selling. The valuation was super high, and the market just corrected itself, wiping out a huge chunk of their market cap.
There’s also some bigger-picture stuff going on.
The ad industry is getting more competitive, with Google and Amazon pushing hard, and there are worries about the economy slowing down. Plus, new privacy rules and regulations are making things trickier for digital ad companies in general.
All this led to a bit of a panic, with people selling off their shares and the price dropping even more because of technical trading stuff.
Fortunately, the price stopped near the previous lows where there is a major support and this could be a masive opportunity for mid to long term investors seeking a low risk entry with a +200% returns opportunity. A Stop Loss under the supports would be fine to keep your money safe.
In short, The Trade Desk is still a major player in digital ads, but they hit a rough patch because of disappointing results, some mistakes with their new tech, and a reality check on their sky-high stock price. Some people still think they’ll bounce back if they fix these issues, but for now, it’s been a wild ride!
$OPEN: The Second Breath - A Gap Fill Re-entryThe Technical Landscape
Our first attempt to short this parabolic move was stopped out. The market wanted to test higher prices, and we paid a small tuition fee to learn that. However, the core thesis of exhaustion has not been invalidated. In fact, the price action following the recent Fed decision gives us more conviction that a market cool-down is due. The tide is ready to reset.
The setup is now even clearer, presenting us with a classic gap fill opportunity. Below us, there is a large unfilled gap down to the $6.75 area. These gaps often act like vacuums, pulling price back to fill the void left behind during a rapid ascent. For traders of all levels, this is one of the most powerful visual cues the market provides for a potential target. We are simply looking for the "exhale" back towards that gap.
The Philosophy - Conviction Over Ego
A stop-out is simply information. A trade setup with a reward:risk greater than 2:1 is a mathematical edge. When you combine the two, you have a process that allows you to be wrong and still be profitable over the long term.
This is not about revenge trading or being stubborn. This is about having a thesis, testing it, receiving feedback (the stop-out), and re-engaging because the thesis itself remains sound. The market simply told us, "not yet." We listened, took our small paper cut, and now we try again, calmly and with a clear plan that the math supports.
An Illustrative Setup
For this entry, our stop loss must be placed intelligently behind what I call "moats"—clear structural levels that would invalidate our idea if broken.
Style: Short / Gap Fill Re-entry
Entry: Around the current levels of ~$10.20 or higher.
Stop Loss: ~$11.25. This is placed above the recent swing high and the psychological whole-number moat of $11.00.
Take Profit: Targeting the gap fill at ~$6.75.
Risk/Reward: Approximately 1 : 3.33 (repeating of-course)
Remember that the daily ATR is ~$1.20, so account for that volatility in your risk management. The plan is clear. The risk is defined.
Just shine.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It is for educational and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
EURUSD swing idea long 18.9.25We are in uptrend on multi TF 1H and above.
Looking for long from low area at yellow rectangle
Level 1.17820 and bellow
Looking for reversal structure on lower TF for entry
At 10:00 EU news, at 14:30 USD news
USDJPY setting up for a drop!Series of lower highs with multiple liquidity grab from the trend line, with respecting dynamic resistance 20ema showing up the market to potentially continue to drop through the daily FVG. With upcoming Fed rate cut decision made dollar weaker, while BOJ policy rate on Friday causing to JPYX move up for correction which also fueling USDJPY to drop.
Based on current market structure on 1h timeframe, A potential sell entry upon price action confirmation around 146.48 zone is an ara of value for sell entry!
$ETHUSD: Riding the Lightning - The Short Trade is ActiveThe Trade is Active
Greetings, fellow navigators. The market has spoken, and our patience has been met with a trigger. The short setup we've been observing on BITSTAMP:ETHUSD is now live, with price having tagged our entry zone around the $4590 - $4600 level. If stopped out at 4800, we would be okay to re-enter, keeping the stop loss above the most recent swing high.
The thesis remains as discussed: after a powerful "inhale," the market appears to be taking a corrective "exhale." Price has broken the lower boundary of its immediate ascending channel, signaling a potential shift in short-term momentum. The plan is in motion.
Style: Short / Mean Reversion
Entry: ~$4590 (Active)
Stop Loss: ~$4814
Take Profit: ~$3000
Risk/Reward: Approximately 1 : 6.9
The Philosophy - A Word on Trading Crypto
To trade crypto is to engage with the market in its wildest form. It is the extreme sport of the financial world. The volatility here is a double-edged sword; it can carve out immense opportunity, but it demands the utmost respect and skill to handle without getting cut. Trying to catch a reversal in this space can feel like trying to catch a falling blade that has no handle.
This is why we don't "catch"; we plan. We define our risk before we ever enter. The "doctor's orders" for navigating this beautiful chaos are simple, but not easy:
A healthy dose of strategically placed stop losses.
A commitment to non-degenerate risk management.
A big smile, because the lessons learned here will forge you into a disciplined trader.
A Note on Your Well-Being
I speak of getting "cut" not to be grim, but to be real. This path can be intensely lonely, especially when the market delivers a harsh lesson. I've been there. If you are struggling, or ever lose more than you were prepared to, I want you to know that you do not have to carry that weight alone. Please reach out to someone.
Everything money can buy is cheap. You are priceless.
If you are struggling, you don't have to do it alone.
988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline
Hours: Available 24 hours
Just shine.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. It is for educational and informational purposes only. Please conduct your own research and manage your risk accordingly.
Short-term buy for SNAP due to oversold signalNYSE:SNAP has been way oversold for a period of time and is getting ready for a possible mean reversion to the upside. Volume has been climbing steadily and this indicate renewed bullish interest. SNAP is likely to continue higher should it breaks US$8.00 psychological level. Ichimoku shows two out of three bullish golden cross. Stochastic has confirmed its oversold signal. 23-period ROC is back into its positive levels. Near-term target is at 9.18 should 8.00 breaks. Cut if stocks falls below 7.13
GBPUSD 4HWe broke the trendline and are now waiting for a pullback to the Fibonacci zone to catch a great swing trade 👌
BTC/USD – Critical Night Ahead; Set Your Stop-Loss!🚨 Warning to Traders 🚨
Bitcoin has completed its pullback within the long-term ascending channel and is now testing the heavy resistance zone at 120K–124K. Tonight could be one of the most critical nights for the market. If negative news hits, we may witness a bloody drop of 18–19%, pushing price action down toward 93K.
🔻 Key Levels
Major Resistance: 120K–124K
Support 1: 109K–105K
Support 2: 101K–97K
Critical Demand: 93K
Deep Liquidity: 80K–74K
📉 Likely Scenario
A breakdown below 109K could trigger a multi-leg decline: first targeting 101K–97K, then extending toward 93K. With increased fear, even the 80K–74K liquidity zone could come into play.
⚠️ Revolutionary Advice
Always set your stop-loss
Protect your capital
Tonight could define the next major Bitcoin trend
💡 Save your money – the market never jokes!
Gold Price Falls After Fed DecisionGold Price Falls After Fed Decision
Yesterday, as expected, the Fed lowered its rate from 4.25%–4.50% to 4%–4.25%. Although rate cuts are generally seen as supportive for gold, the XAU/USD chart shows bearish price dynamics: after a short-term spike above $3700 (a new all-time high), gold retreated sharply, forming a long bearish candlestick (marked with a red arrow).
This may be explained by the fact that expectations of a rate cut had already been priced in, while at the press conference the Fed Chair struck a less “dovish” tone than the market had hoped for. While Jerome Powell did voice concerns about the labour market, he gave no clear signal of readiness for aggressive or rapid further cuts.
Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart
At the start of the week, we:
→ drew a steep ascending channel (shown with orange lines);
→ suggested a potential move lower towards the orange dashed line (an additional support line plotted beneath the channel).
Indeed, the dashed line acted as support today. What are the possible scenarios?
Bearish view:
→ the long upper shadow of the candlestick marked with the arrow clearly points to strong selling pressure;
→ the price only briefly broke above the psychological $3700 level – a bull trap (or Liquidity Grab in Smart Money Concept terms);
→ $3675 has flipped from support to resistance.
Bullish view:
→ the dashed trendline has confirmed its role as support – it may help the price move towards the midline of the orange channel;
→ the $3600–$3625 area looks like solid backing. Following the rally in early September, gold repeatedly found support there without falling below it.
Considering that in early September the price was around $3450, the market still looks bullish overall. However, as we recently outlined three reasons why gold’s advance could stall, it now seems that the black line, drawn through lower lows, may serve as another bearish signal – this time on the lower timeframe.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nasdaq 100 Analysis: Index Hits All-Time HighNasdaq 100 Analysis: Index Hits All-Time High
As the chart shows, today the Nasdaq 100 index has, for the first time in history, climbed above the 24,500 level.
According to media reports, bullish sentiment was driven by the long-awaited Fed decision to cut interest rates for the first time in 2025.
Although the Fed also indicated it would remain cautious about further cuts, the easing acted as a bullish catalyst for the entire stock market – European equities also advanced today, with technology companies leading the way.
Technical Analysis of the Nasdaq 100
When looking at the Nasdaq 100 index within the context of the September rally (highlighted by the blue channel), we note the following:
→ In mid-September, price action reflected market optimism, as the index traded in the upper half of the channel – with resistance at the upper boundary (R) and support at line S.
→ Yesterday’s volatility spike produced a similar move (marked with an arrow) to the one we highlighted in today’s earlier gold analysis, namely a sharp reversal from the lower boundary of the channel (essentially a bullish engulfing pattern, albeit less clear due to volatility and the chosen timeframe).
Following the reversal from the lower boundary, which unfolded aggressively (a sign of bullish conviction), the price advanced steadily, breaking through key levels:
→ the midline of the blue channel;
→ the R2 resistance line shown in red;
→ the former all-time high at 24,165.
Moreover, the index’s behaviour around 24,300 demonstrated the persistence of buyers – the price moved above a cluster of local resistances and then extended its rally.
Bearish view:
→ bullish momentum has pushed the RSI indicator into overbought zone;
→ when attempting to break above the psychological 24,500 level, the price failed to hold, suggesting a false bullish breakout.
Given the above, we could assume that optimism prevails in the market, supported by the Fed’s decision:
→ on the one hand, further gains towards the upper boundary of the blue channel may take place;
→ on the other hand, the market may be overheated and vulnerable to a correction (for instance, back towards the blue midline).
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
