Bitcoin Stays True to “Uptober” with 11% Pop. What Happens Next?Bitcoin BTC/USD saw elevated demand in October as the surge nearly led to a new all-time high. Now the looming US election on November 5 is shaping up as a catalyst for growth, depending on who gets to become President of the United States.
Bullishness is in the air. The OG token — Bitcoin BTC/USD — pumped hard in yet another October. Staying true to the “Uptober” tradition , BTC added 11% over the month, kicking it all the way up to more than $73,000 , just a few hundred bucks shy of its record high logged in March .
The powerful surge is now taking a breather with prices diving back under the $70,000 threshold. But not for long, according to some analysts who are already living post November 5. What’s that? It’s the biggest event of the year — economically, politically, and … cryptolitically ?
Gloves on, bell rings, the main event is here — in the blue corner is Democrat Kamala Harris facing her red-shorts opponent, Republican Donald Trump. The current Vice President and the former President are squaring up for the top spot in American politics. And both have vastly differing viewpoints on crypto.
If we were to play favorites, it’s fair to say that Donald Trump is winning the hearts of the crypto faithful. Throughout his rallying and campaigning, he’s made it clear that he believes in Bitcoin’s growth potential. What’s more, he’s embraced digital assets in general and wants to see the market thrive in the world’s biggest economy.
The promises don’t stop there. Trump has vowed to make the US the “crypto capital of the world” and dig out all the remaining Bitcoins from within US grounds. He also pledged to set up a Bitcoin strategic reserve and fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, who is seen as a roadblock to future crypto growth.
Hence the so-called “Trump trade,” which has been propelling the orange coin to higher places.
On the other end of the spectrum is Kamala Harris who has adopted a warm, but not that warm stance toward crypto. She’s all about casting a sweeping regulatory framework over the industry. The Democratic candidate has vowed to “encourage innovative technologies” like digital assets. Still better than President Joe Biden’s crackdown on the sector.
More interestingly, Trump has recruited a key player on his team. Elon Musk, the world’s richest guy (depending on the day) and CEO of Tesla TSLA , is a major donor to Trump’s campaign. He is looking to potentially get employed by the government as head of — can you guess? — Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE (a nod to Musk’s beloved coin).
"I will create a government efficiency commission tasked with conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government," Trump said at a rally back in September.
“I look forward to serving America if the opportunity arises. No pay, no title, no recognition is needed,” the eccentric billionaire wrote on his X platform .
How is that bullishness trickling into the markets? Besides the obvious price leap, options traders are ramping up their bets for $80,000 Bitcoin by the end of November. Implied volatility on November 5 is elevated — BTC options flag a 30% chance of a 10% swing in the price. Stay cool, stay ready.
On the ETFs front, exchange-traded funds that hold genuine Bitcoin and offer spot trading pulled in around $4 billion of net new money in October. The biggest winner of all 11 spot BTC ETFs is the BlackRock-owned iShares Bitcoin Trust, which holds more than $26 billion in assets.
Traders broadly (not just the crypto space) may be pricing in a Trump victory and scooping up some of the assets that are likely to do well under his term. But while Trump is ahead in prediction markets, he’s neck-and-neck with Harris in the national polls, making Election Day all the more uncertain.
With that said, Bitcoin is up 57% on the year, outperforming other large-cap assets, such as gold XAU/USD , up 35% in a stellar year of its own , and the S&P 500 SPX , up 20% year to date, also enjoying lots of buying appetite .
Whose side are you on and do you think we'll see a huge swing in the price of Bitcoin come November 5? Share your thoughts below!
Trump
Crypto Frenzy: Elon Musk's Impact on Bitcoin and DogecoinCryptocurrencies are skyrocketing just 7 days before the presidential election, and many people are wondering why. The answer, which should come as no surprise, is of course, Elon Musk.The reason is a perfect storm of sorts. Musk’s increased prominence as he campaigns for Donald Trump, his recent comments about cryptocurrency, and his potential role in a Trump administration (should Trump win) are all driving up the price of Bitcoin as well as Dogecoin and a number of other meme coins.Dogecoin, a favorite of Musk’s, was up 9.7% on Tuesday. This comes after the tech billionaire said at a Trump political rally in Pennsylvania that he’s not “actively involved” in crypto: “I just like Dogecoin.”
The billionaire founder of Tesla and Space X and owner of X has a long history with Dogecoin, which he first promoted in 2021 on Saturday Night Live, causing the price to spike, only to plunge afterward. (The meme coin’s price has gone up and down based on Musk’s comments since.)Musk, who has been actively campaigning for the Republican nominee and raising money for Trump, has also said he would be heading the Department of Government Efficiency, dubbed DOGE, if the former president is elected. That has also contributed to the frenzy, leading to a more-than-20% gain in Dogecoin over the past seven days, and 33% over the month.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin, which is the largest cryptocurrency by total market capitalization, was up over 4.4% on Tuesday, seemingly swept up in the excitement. It’s now trading just short of its March record high.
How the U.S. Election Could Impact USD and EUR/USD Trading"As the U.S. presidential election approaches, it’s time to consider how it might impact our trading strategies, particularly with the U.S. dollar and EUR/USD. Political shifts bring market volatility, so let’s break down how each outcome could influence the dollar and the EUR/USD pair.
Election Outcomes and Market Impact
1. If Democrats Win: A Democratic victory could weaken the dollar, as policies may lead to lower inflation and reduced real interest rates. This scenario might push the EUR/USD pair higher, with potential targets around 1.1300–1.1850. For traders, this could mean a favorable environment to consider EUR/USD gains.
2. If Republicans Win: On the other hand, a Republican win might initially strengthen the dollar, thanks to expected trade policies and rising interest rates. However, this strength could be short-lived. Long-term factors may introduce volatility, potentially giving the euro a chance to regain ground against the dollar.
Key Levels to Watch in EUR/USD
From a technical standpoint, keep an eye on resistance levels from 1.1275 to 1.1750 for potential bullish moves, while support around 1.1000 and a critical level at 1.0900 could indicate a downturn. Combining these levels with election news can help you make informed trade adjustments.
How to Trade Before, During, and After the Election
Leading up to the election, watch for narrowing polls, as this could introduce uncertainty and increased volatility. During the election itself, expect the market to react strongly—prepare for a Trump win to potentially strengthen the dollar and a Harris victory to have the opposite effe
SPX in monthly (log)Hello community,
A quick review of the month on the SPX index.
A red candle for this month of October.
I have indicated in orange the simple 12-period average (monthly)
The price is in the upper part of the channel, I don't see anything alarming on the chart.
The trend is still bullish, I prefer to invest my money in the American market, than on the old continent which is very sick!
Whether it is Harris against Trump, the new president will have a country in working order to face the future. I have confidence in the USA.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
► Thank you for boosting, commenting, subscribing!
DJT - Parabolic Move IncomingPolitics aside, NASDAQ:DJT is about to begin the most insane of rallies. This chart for me is as clean as they come!
Recent Price Action
The last 2 days of October saw a ~45% correction, completing an Elliott Wave 2 correction.
This after a bullish initial Wave 1 formation saw it go beyond even the most bullish of bullish initial price targets, in just 2 weeks flat.
Price had prior to that been compressed inside a downwards-pointing wedge pattern (orange lines), since late March 2024. Over-shooting below it even, which is one of my most favourite bullish chart patterns.
After breaking out of that, it is now not-only putting the finishing touches to an Inverse Head & Shoulder pattern (grey lines)... but when it does so it will also complete a massive Cup & Handle formation (white arrows).
Future Price Targets
The initial target (T1) from this move would be $570 (18x) in a very short period, perhaps even just 2 months. This would coincide with the 1.414 fibonacci level from the previous introduction of this stock (formerly DWAC) to public markets.
Thereafter, an extended 5th wave target of $1,030 (33x) could be reached somewhere between early February and late May 2025. This coincides with the 1.618 fibonacci level (darker blue T2 line).
Price as of today has back-tested the red horizontal line, in very quick fashion. This is the 0.382 fibonacci level.
Next Up...
Price may well end-up sideways on Monday and going into Tuesday's pivotal election day - which may allow the RSI to come back a little more to the mid 40s on this timeframe, to retest the RSI bull zone for support.
From there I expect late Tuesday early Wednesday NASDAQ:DJT will have had a sufficient amount of time to cool-off - such that we can call the completion of a Wave 2 correction. Before the hugely exciting 3rd & 5th waves await us.
Possible Elliott Waves
Wave 1 - $12 to $55
Wave 2 - $55 to $30
Wave 3 - $30 to $570
Wave 4 - $570 to $140
Wave 5 - $140 to $1,030
Sounds ridiculous, right?
Short squeeze, or election euphoria - call it what you want. But if you thought you'd seen NASDAQ:DJT volatility in recent days, think again. This is an incredible opportunity - with many many patterns aligning. NASDAQ:DJT has a lot of room to the upside still from here. Not sure this stock can any longer be suppressed.
Gold after U.S. election : Since rising tensions have played a significant role in the recent increase in gold prices, let’s look at each U.S. presidential candidate’s approach to handling these tensions and their future plans.
Kamala Harris, representing the Democratic Party, is focused on diplomatic efforts to reduce conflicts in the Middle East. She generally follows the Biden administration's approach, aiming to ease hostilities through aid and international agreements, including a two-state solution for Israel and Palestine. This approach may help stabilize markets by reducing the volatility tied to prolonged conflicts.
Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, takes a more aggressive stance. He supports a strong alliance with Israel, endorses military responses to threats from Iran and its regional affiliates, and prioritizes U.S. strength and independence. Trump's “America First” stance could lead to continued or heightened tensions, which historically correlates with higher gold prices due to investor flight to safe-haven assets.
In summary:
Kamala Harris: Diplomatic de-escalation, which may stabilize gold prices.
Donald Trump: Military strength and strong alliances, likely to keep prices high in case of increased tension.
These policy differences could significantly impact markets depending on which candidate wins.
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Trump wins? $DJT to fall into election, then rally after?I've been watching the DJT chart for a while now. I originally took a trade at $17 with intention to hold, but got scared out of the position on the loss of $16. It ended up bottoming at $13. Since then, it's gone 3x with people anticipating a Trump win.
We've corrected in the last few days and the chart looks like it wants to see more downside into the $27-20 levels. That's where I'll start scaling into positions in both spot and calls.
To me, that looks like a great buying opportunity. On higher timeframes, it looks like the stock is getting ready for a large move above $100 post election.
Let's see how it plays out over the next week.
POLKADOT COMPRESSION ABOUT TO EXPLODEHey traders!
It's been a while since my last post in here. Despite that, I've been trading and charting like I always did.
Anyways, this is why I think CRYPTOCAP:DOT is pumping on the next months:
- As the rest of #alts , Polkadot has been on a compression structure since the manipulation on August. In my opinion, we are talking about a accumulation that will lead the price to reach the local ATH (11.00 - 12.00 USD)
- Context is great. #Trump seems to be the winner of US elections next week.
Don't take me wrong, I'm not a fan of #DOT and I think its time passed by. However, I don't think its crazy to see the #token dancing around 20.00 - 30.00 USD on the upcoming months.
#TRU/USDT#TRU
The price is moving in a downward channel on the 12-hour frame upwards and is expected to continue
We have a trend to stabilize above the moving average 100 again
We have a downward trend on the RSI indicator that supports the rise by breaking it upwards
We have a support area at the lower limit of the channel at a price of 0.0763
Entry price 0.0764
First target 0.0853
Second target 0.0946
Third target 0.1064
Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher
Japan's ruling coalition losing its parliamentary majority in weekend elections is currently weighing on the Japanese yen.
Adding momentum to the dollar's strength, long-term U.S. Treasury yields continued their surge, despite the Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point rate cut. Traders perhaps now see little chance of a rate cuts when the Fed meets on November 6, just a day after the U.S. election.
Another key factor in the dollar’s rise is what’s being called the “Trump Trade” — a bet on Donald Trump's potential re-election. Should Trump secure victory and the Republicans retain control of Congress, his policies are expected to drive up the U.S. deficit and reignite inflation.
Dogecoin Just Barked ,Thanks to Elon & Trump’s crypto magicMusk & Trump: Dogecoin’s New Favorite Hoomans?
In a landscape where cryptocurrency trends often intersect with political drama, both Bitcoin and Dogecoin have seen notable price movements leading up to the US presidential election. Bitcoin has rallied to within 5% of its all time high, while Dogecoin, defying the general altcoin downturn, surged almost 12%. This surge followed Elon Musk’s endorsement and the coin’s growing association with Donald Trump’s campaign.
Dogecoin’s Rise and the Musk Trump Link
Bitcoin’s upward trend is mainly driven by technical factors and larger economic conditions. On the other hand, Dogecoin’s momentum can be traced to its ties with Elon Musk and Donald Trump. After Musk’s appearance at a Trump rally in New York, Dogecoin’s price jumped by 16%, hitting $0.167 and marking the highest percentage gain among the top 100 cryptocurrencies for that day. Musk, known for his strong support of DOGE, proposed a “Department of Government Efficiency”—cleverly abbreviated as D.O.G.E . making the coin a playful symbol for Trump’s campaign goal of reducing government spending.
Musk’s impact on Dogecoin is well-documented, particularly during the 2021 bull market when he frequently mentioned it on Twitter. Recently, he fueled further excitement by tweeting a meme of himself with a DOGE avatar, invigorating Dogecoin’s community. Paul Howard, a senior director at crypto trading firm Wincent, stated, “DOGE is now closely connected to the US presidential race due to Musk’s endorsement and his presence at Trump’s rallies.”
Prediction Markets, Dogecoin & Trump’s Chances
Dogecoin’s rise isn’t happening in isolation. The correlation between Trump’s campaign progress and Dogecoin’s price growth has been magnified by prediction markets favoring Trump’s chances in the election. On Polymarket, blockchain-based odds for Trump’s victory have risen from 61% to nearly 66% in the last week. This Dogecoin-Trump link, strengthened by Musk’s involvement, brings a speculative edge to both the meme coin and Trump’s campaign, both driven by their nontraditional popularity and social media narratives.
As Trump’s odds improve, some believe Dogecoin could keep gaining attention if Musk’s D.O.G.E. proposal picks up support. Although the department idea is only theoretical, it has resonated with both Musk and Trump supporters, injecting a novel and ironic rallying point into the 2024 campaign.
Market Reactions and Future Implications
Dogecoin’s recent rally shows how influential prominent endorsements can be, even amid a sluggish altcoin market. Once considered a “joke currency,” DOGE now has serious investors betting on Musk’s ongoing support to maintain its relevance. While it remains well below its peak of $0.7 in 2021, Dogecoin’s current five-month high and unique position in the political limelight could attract more attention leading up to Election Day.
For Bitcoin, the focus is on its tendency to rally after elections, as new market entrants often surge in during these periods. If BTC’s current “bullish setup” resembles late 2020’s conditions, as Sigel suggests, it may reflect crypto’s changing role during political transitions and heightened speculation.
Overall, the intertwining of political narratives with cryptocurrency prices signals a noticeable market shift. While Bitcoin remains relatively stable, Dogecoin’s speculative value fluctuates with the influence of key figures. Whether gains are driven by Trump, Musk, or broader market forces is uncertain, but one thing is clear: in the unpredictable world of crypto, politics and social popularity have become key factors in shaping market dynamics.
TRUMP MEDIA (DJT) Skyrockets After NYC Rally! Next Big Move?TRUMP MEDIA (DJT) Analysis:
Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (DJT) experienced a sharp rise in price, gaining over 10% in Tuesday’s pre-market trading following a high-profile rally by Donald Trump at Madison Square Garden. This rally, which attracted a wave of attention, likely fueled the surge in buying interest. The stock closed 21.59% higher the previous day, marking a significant increase.
Trade Setup:
Entry Point: $30.15
Stop Loss: $20.95
Target Levels:
TP 1: $41.53
TP 2: $59.93
TP 3: $78.33
TP 4: $89.70
Technical Indicators:
The Risological dotted trend line indicates bullish momentum, suggesting that buyers are stepping in forcefully. With TP 1 already reached, the stock has shown strong momentum, making the higher targets achievable if this rally sustains.
Market Sentiment:
Post-event enthusiasm and Trump’s push on key issues seem to resonate with certain investor groups, potentially sparking further interest. Given the volume spike to 110.35M, far above its 30-day average, momentum remains high.
Outlook:
With further upside potential, the stock could reach its higher target levels if the rally and media attention continue to bolster confidence. Keep a close watch on volume and price action to capture potential profit-taking points or to ride the bullish wave to higher targets.
M6E: Staking an Opinion on the US ElectionCME: Micro EUR/USD Futures ( CME_MINI:M6E1! )
All eyes are on the November 5th U.S. presidential election. The stake can’t be higher. A bad outcome could lead to reshaping the balance of world power, an escalation of the geopolitical crises underway, and disrupting the social stability in the U.S. and beyond.
Here on TradingView, I want to address this question: How would the U.S. election impact financial investment?
A Lookback from the 2022 U.S. Midterm Election
On August 17, 2022, I published “Market Impacts of the US Mid-term Elections, which broke down the possible election outcomes into two categories:
• “One-Party Rule”, where Democrats controlled the White House and the Congress
• “Divided Government”, where Republicans retook either the House or the Senate and created effective challenges to the Administration’s political agenda
I analyzed how each asset class would fare under these two scenarios. My conclusion was that the four mega spending bills passed in the first two years would pump $4 trillion in the U.S. economy and would pop up the stock market. At the time of that story, the S&P 500 stood at 4,264. Last Friday, it settled at 5,808, up 36%.
Prediction Markets, Opinion Polls and the DJT Stock
With the upcoming election, my main question can be broken down into two:
• What asset class would fare well if Trump wins?
• Would there be any investment instrument help us express our market view?
What if Harris win? The election is a binary option with only two outcomes. We could combine them in one question with Yes or No answer. A No for Trump is equivalent to a Yes to Harris.
To start our analysis, we need to assess the winning odds of each candidate. Many data sources exist to help. Each tells a part of the story, but all have their own flaws. In my opinion, the prediction markets are preferrable to opinion polls. Millions of people wager on the election outcome on Polymarket, with the money pool amounting to $2.5 billion. This is a real deal as people put money where their mouth is.
Currently, Polymarket predicts that Trump has 65.1% odds of winning the election, where Harris has a 34.9% chance. How does it work?
• If you believe in Trump, you could put down 65 cents for a recreational bet to vote Yes. When he wins, you get $1 back, and if he loses, you lose the bet.
• If you are in favor of Harris, you could put down 35 cents to vote No for Trump. You also get $1 back if Harris wins and will say goodbye to 35 cents if she loses.
Many readers are not comfortable with an “All or Nothing” trade and may not be allowed to participate in a betting market. Fortunately, there are investment-graded alternatives. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp ( NASDAQ:DJT ) is a publicly traded company listed on the Nasdaq market. Its main owner is Donald J. Trump with an 84% stake, and its main asset is TrueSocial.
My hypothesis: DJT stock price shall move up (down) along with the rise (fall) of Trump’s winning odds. With so many unprecedented events happening, we should be able to validate this assumption easily.
Let’s look back in the campaign timeline in the past four months, and see how Polymarket and DJT stock price responded to these events:
(1) On June 27th, the first presidential debate took place. It’s generally viewed that the current President performed poorly against his opponent. My rating: Positive on Trump
• Polymarket: Trump’s odds increase from 59.5% to 67.0% (+7.5%)
• DJT: Stock price moved from $25 to $39 (+56%)
(2) On July 13th, an attempted assassination on Donald Trump wounded him and killed a bystander in Pennsylvania. Rating: Strong Positive
• Polymarket from 59% to 71% (+12%) and DJT from $29 to $41(+41%)
(3) On July 24th, President Biden withdrew his presidential candidacy. On August 3rd, Kamala Harris became the Democrats nominee after a roll call to party delegates secured a majority vote. Rating: Negative on Trump
• Polymarket from 62% to 45% (-17%) and DJT from $41 to $21 (-49%)
(4) On September 10th, the second presidential debate with Trump and Harris took place. Many viewed that Harris performed better than expected. Rating: Negative on Trump
• Polymarket from 52% to 49% (-3%) and DJT from $18 to $12 (-33%)
(5) On October 20th, Trump worked a shift in a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania, making fries and handing out food to mobile customers. Rating: Very Positive
• Polymarket from 55% to 65% (+10%) and DJT from $20 to $39 (+95%)
The above analysis shows that DJT is positively correlated to the Polymarket winning odds. Therefore, we could use DJT as a stock market proxy for Trump’s chance of winning the presidential election on November 5th.
For anyone owning a stock brokerage account, he could give his approval to Trump by buying DJT. Harris became presidential nominee in less than 3 months, and there isn’t a stock symbol closely linked to her. Therefore, for anyone leaning towards her, he could deliver a disapproval to Trump by shorting DJT.
DJT Correlation with Other Financial Instruments
Keep in mind that DJT is a single stock with very volatile prices. Its low market valuation opens DJT vulnerable to stock manipulation. A prudent investor may want to consider other assets that move in line with DJT but are less volatile.
I looked into a number of financial instruments. Here is what I founded:
US stock market indexes Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT
Gold and Bitcoin have no correlation with the stock prices of DJT
US Dollar Index is positively correlated with the stock prices of DJT, while the Euro-USD Exchange Rate is negatively correlated with the stock prices of DJT
Let’s focus on the ones with statistically significant correlations. The dollar index moved in line with Trump’s winning odds. Investors are not necessarily in favor of a Trump win. In my opinion, his America-First policy would help uphold the value of the dollar. Meanwhile, an untested Harris administration means more uncertainties to dollar investors.
The Euro-USD is negatively correlated with DJT because of the quoting convention in the FX market. Quoting as number of dollars per euro, dollar appreciation means that each unit of euro could buy fewer dollars, resulting in the declining exchange rate quotation. The opposite also holds true.
Trade Setup with the Micro Euro-USD Futures
Like trading DJT, a trader could express his political opinions in this election using CME Micro Euro-USD futures ($M6E). M6E contract has a notional value of 12,500 euros. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $280.
The December contract (M6EZ4) was settled at $1.0817 last Friday. At the current price, each contract is valued at $13,521.25. The M6E contract is very liquid, with a daily trade volume of 18,096 and an Open Interest of 14,375.
Along the line with our preceding discussion, possible trade setup are as follows:
• A Trump victory could strengthen the dollar, leading to a decline in M6E quotation. Therefore, a vote for Trump could equal to a short position in Micro Euro-USD futures.
• A Harris victory could weaken the dollar, leading to an increase in M6E quotation. A vote for Harris is a No to Trump, which could equal to a long position in M6E.
I do not attempt to sway anyone’s vote to one direction or the other. Both views could find application using M6E. Unlike Polymarket, trading futures is not an All-or-Nothing bet. If you are wrong, you may incur losses in the trade, but not necessarily lose everything.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Bitcoin - American elections, future fluctuations of Bitcoin!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H time frame and is trading in its ascending channel
Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement
Capital withdrawals from Bitcoin ETFs or risk OFF sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way down for Bitcoin, which can be used to look for Bitcoin buying positions in the two specified demand zones
As long as Bitcoin is within the specified range, you can look for buy and sell positions at the top and bottom of the range
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
The market whispers only to those who listen. TRUMPThe market whispers only to those who listen. Today’s setup tells a story of resilience and growth. 📈 Buy now and hold steady; success is earned by those who master patience and conviction. Let's trade not just with charts, but with a mindset of growth and discipline.
DYOR.
Yours truly,
Hedonist
Trump Media Surges! TP1 & TP2 Done – More Targets in Sight!DJT (Trump Media) on the 15-minute time frame, long trade.
Entry: $28.64
Current Price: $34.33 (TP2 hit)
TP1: $30.81 (Hit)
TP2: $34.33 (Hit)
TP3: $37.85
TP4: $40.03
Stop Loss (SL): $26.88
With two targets already hit, the momentum suggests we could see the next targets getting hit soon!
USD, yields surge on Fed pushback, Trump rebound After just one day of retracing on Friday, the USD bull regained momentum on Monday thanks to Fed members continuing to push back on aggressive easing. Markets are also pricing in a Trump win with some polls suggesting he is ahead in three key states and some bookies even touting for him to win. In the current climate, USD/JPY could be at 152 before we know it.
MS
Bitcoin - The return of Trump, the rise of Bitcoin?!Bitcoin is above the EMA50 and EMA200 in the 4H timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel
Risk ON sentiment in the US stock market or investing in Bitcoin ETF funds will lead to its continued upward movement
Capital withdrawal from Bitcoin ETFs or Risk Off Sentiment in the US stock market will pave the way down for Bitcoin, which can be found in the two defined demand zones, looking for Bitcoin buying positions
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market, and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important
US30 volatility during the presidential election nightI just found something interesting to share with you. The events that happened on Election Day, November 8, 2016, and in the early hours of the day after were so significant. The group that dumped and pumped assets during that time also bought the COVID crash lows, when everyone thought the world was ending, and then defended their positions. Wow, I mean, who is this group? Just be careful. Even if Trump wins big, I think the volatility will be intense, especially for Bitcoin. I believe it will hit a new all-time high (ATH) and then dump hard.
Bitcoin Analysis: The Lunar Influence and Price TargetsAs of the latest data, Bitcoin began its ascent at exactly 16:00 Dubai time , coinciding with the formation of the full moon. Is this a coincidence? Absolutely not! The correlation between Bitcoin and moon phases is a pattern observed by seasoned analysts. Historically, after every full moon, Bitcoin has shown bullish momentum lasting 3 to 4 days on average.
At present, Bitcoin is hovering around the $67,000 mark, showing strength in its recent movements. The major support level stands firmly at $56,800 , a critical point that has held over several market cycles. On the upside, we are focusing on the major resistance at $69,329, a level that we believe could be broken this week. If this resistance breaks with confirmation, a slight rejection might occur, but the continuation of the upward momentum is highly probable.
Our first target lies within the golden zone, ranging from $75,008 to $76,747 , where we expect Bitcoin to consolidate before potentially pushing higher.
The moon phase phenomenon has drawn attention from both technical and scientific communities, as similar market movements have been recorded in the past. Many traders and analysts follow this lunar cycle to align their strategies with Bitcoin’s behavioral trends. With Bitcoin’s price behavior showing such predictability, it reinforces the importance of alternative analysis techniques that integrate both natural cycles and traditional technical indicators.
Supporting Media and Insights
Lunar Phase Correlation with Market Trends: Research papers and market reports suggest a pattern in price movements aligning with lunar cycles, particularly full and new moons. These natural events seem to trigger psychological market responses, possibly rooted in historical trader sentiment or behavioral finance models.
Crypto Sentiment Studies: Numerous media sources have reported on Bitcoin's uncanny alignment with natural cycles, especially after full moons. Bitcoin tends to rally within days following these phases, often igniting bullish sentiment across crypto communities and news outlets. Analysts point to multiple instances where moon phases triggered temporary, yet significant, market boosts.
Current Market Sentiment: As we approach key technical levels, many institutional traders and investors are watching Bitcoin’s reaction closely. With the macroeconomic factors in play and rising institutional interest, breaking the $69,329 resistance will attract significant volume. Social media platforms, forums, and market analysts are buzzing with discussions on Bitcoin’s next move as it edges closer to critical resistance levels.
This analysis confirms that alternative insights such as moon phases can provide additional layers of understanding when timing trades, particularly in a volatile market like Bitcoin.
Stay tuned for further updates, and keep a close watch on these price levels as the week unfolds.
Disclaimer : The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
Trump Media & Technology Group Stock Surges as Musk Backs TrumpShares of Trump Media & Technology Group (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:DJT ) surged by over 15% on Monday, buoyed by renewed political momentum after former President Donald Trump’s rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where he appeared alongside Tesla CEO Elon Musk. The event, held just a day prior, saw Musk publicly endorse Trump for president, a move that has energized Trump’s supporters and investors alike. Musk’s endorsement, along with the rally’s broader media coverage, has acted as a significant catalyst for NASDAQ:DJT stock, which has seen a strong uptick in trading volume and investor interest.
Musk-Backed Momentum and Media Buzz
The rally in Butler marked a high-profile return for Trump to the site of a previous assassination attempt in July, with Musk's appearance further amplifying the media attention. In his 90-minute speech, Trump spoke at length about his vision for the country, while Musk labeled himself “Dark MAGA” and expressed strong support for Trump’s re-election, stating, “President Trump must win to preserve the Constitution.” This public backing by one of the world's most influential tech entrepreneurs has provided a jolt to NASDAQ:DJT , which had previously been on a steady decline.
Adding to this momentum is the recent U.S. Supreme Court dismissal of a lawsuit filed by Musk’s X Corp. The lawsuit alleged that Special Counsel Jack Smith violated the First Amendment in obtaining a search warrant for Trump's communications on Twitter. The dismissal was seen as a victory for both Trump Media and Musk, helping to restore some investor confidence.
However, challenges remain. Trump Media recently revealed in regulatory filings that its Chief Operating Officer, Andrew Northwall, resigned in late September, marking yet another leadership shake-up within the company. Additionally, the firm is set to release nearly 800,000 shares of its stock to an early investor, per a Delaware judge’s ruling. Despite these internal challenges, the company’s chief product, Truth Social, continues to depend heavily on Trump’s popularity and his continued presence on the platform.
Technical Outlook
Technically, NASDAQ:DJT appears to be in the early stages of a potential bullish rebound. The stock is currently up 10.67% as of this writing, capitalizing on the rally’s momentum and Musk’s endorsement. However, NASDAQ:DJT has been in a falling trend pattern since its all-time high (ATH) back in March 2024, signaling a long-term downward trend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 54.54, indicating that the stock is not yet overbought and has room to grow further. This gives traders optimism that the stock could continue its upward trajectory. A key concern, however, is that NASDAQ:DJT is still trading below critical moving averages (MAs), particularly the 50-day and 200-day MAs. These levels represent important resistance points that NASDAQ:DJT will need to break through to confirm a sustained bullish reversal.
Price targets suggest that the next major pivot for the stock is set at $33, aligning with the 200-day MA. Should NASDAQ:DJT continue to capitalize on its recent gains, breaking through this level would be a strong indicator of further upward movement. However, until the stock moves above these key averages, caution is warranted as NASDAQ:DJT remains vulnerable to retracement.
Outlook: Political Tailwinds Could Drive Future Gains
The rally in Butler, Musk’s endorsement, and recent legal victories have given NASDAQ:DJT a fresh boost of momentum, but the stock still has significant hurdles to overcome. Investors are eyeing the upcoming 2024 election cycle as a potential catalyst for further gains, particularly if Trump’s popularity continues to rise.
While the stock is still trading below its key moving averages, the formation of a bullish pattern and steady RSI suggest that there may be room for further upside. As NASDAQ:DJT recovers from its post-March lows, long-term investors and traders will be watching closely to see if the stock can break through the $33 resistance level, which could signal a full-blown reversal of its current trend.
For now, NASDAQ:DJT is riding a wave of political and media momentum, and the road ahead is one of cautious optimism. Investors would do well to keep an eye on both Trump’s political fortunes and the company’s internal management developments as key factors that will influence the stock’s trajectory.