Crude OIL $UKOIL Classic patternI've seen this pattern many times over the last 5 years on different instruments, and its working out to over 50%
The essence of this pattern is a classic triangle with horizontal support, most of the participants realize that we will break down, but not everyone believes that we will take liquidity off the top before going down.
An instrument like oil is quite trivial and it can fall without taking liquidity off the top.
But I want to share a few examples of my theory working out, where the upper resistance line is broken before the drop-down
Best regards EXCAVO
Crude Oil Brent
"BRENT / UK OIL SPOT" Energy Market Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "BRENT / UK OIL SPOT" Energy market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes short entry. Our aim is the high-risk Green Zone. Risky level, oversold market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bullish robbers are stronger. 🏆💸Be wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : "The heist is on! Wait for the breakout (74.500) then make your move - Bearish profits await!"
however I advise placing Sell limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest high or low level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Thief SL placed at 78.800 (swing Trade) Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low or high level.
SL is based on your risk of the trade, lot size and how many orders you have to take.
Target 🎯: 71.000 (or) Escape Before the Target
Scalpers, take note 👀 : only scalp on the Short side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, COT, Sentimental Outlook:
"BRENT / UK OIL SPOT" Energy market is currently experiencing a Neutral trend (there is a higher chance for Bearish)., driven by several key factors.
🟠Corporate Traders:
Fundamental Analysis: Bullish, citing growing demand for oil and supply constraints.
Macro Economics: Bullish, expecting a global economic recovery to drive oil demand.
Sentimental Analysis: Bullish, with 58% of corporate traders holding long positions.
COT Report: Bullish, with corporate traders holding 100,219 long contracts.
🔴Investor Traders:
- Fundamental Analysis: Neutral, citing uncertainty around global oil demand and supply.
- Macro Economics: Neutral, expecting a slow global economic recovery to impact oil demand.
- Sentimental Analysis: Neutral, with 50% of investor traders holding long positions and 50% holding short positions.
- COT Report: Neutral, with investor traders holding 40,109 long contracts and 35,219 short contracts.
🟤Hedge Fund Traders:
- Fundamental Analysis: Bearish, citing rising US oil production and global supply concerns.
- Macro Economics: Bearish, expecting a global economic slowdown to impact oil demand.
- Sentimental Analysis: Bearish, with 60% of hedge fund traders holding short positions.
COT Report: Bearish, with hedge fund traders holding 80,109 short contracts.
🟢Institutional Traders:
- Fundamental Analysis: Bearish, citing rising US oil production and global supply concerns.
- Macro Economics: Bearish, expecting a global economic slowdown to impact oil demand.
- Sentimental Analysis: Bearish, with 62% of institutional traders holding short positions.
COT Report: Bearish, with institutional traders holding 120,000 short contracts.
🟡Overall Outlook:
- Bearish: 55%
- Bullish: 25%
- Neutral: 20%
Based on the comprehensive analysis, the outlook for Brent UKOIL Spot Commodity CFD is bearish, with a target price of around $62-$65 per barrel.
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
📌Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
📌Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🤗
USOIL Trade Update📢 FX:USOIL Trade Update
Hey Traders!
Following recent fundamental and technical developments, we’re seeing strong bullish momentum on Crude Oil.
🔹 Fundamentals:
Trump's new tariffs are driving market sentiment, pushing oil prices higher.
Despite last week’s excess supply from the US oil stock inventory, Crude held strong at $72 and failed to close below the 38.2% Fib level, signaling strong buy pressure.
🔹 Technicals:
The descending channel breakout confirms a bullish reversal.
This rally was triggered by the tariff remarks, and if more tariffs are imposed, we could see Crude pushing towards $80+ in the coming weeks.
🎯 Plan of Action:
We’ll be looking for buy/long positions on market open (Monday), ahead of the next Crude Oil inventory report. Regardless of the report outcome, momentum suggests higher prices for the black gold.
📊 Stay ready, and trade smarter! 🚀
The Inevitable Descent of UKOILIn the shadow of a market that continues to revel in its own delusions, I find myself compelled to address the elephant in the room – or rather, the oil in the barrel that is UKOIL. We stand on the precipice of what I predict to be a significant correction, one that will see UKOIL prices plummeting to the region of $48 per barrel.
Why the Fall?
OPEC+'s decision to phase out additional output cuts by September 2025, announced in June last year, is a clear signal. The return of 2.2 million barrels per day to the market, should market dynamics permit, will flood an already saturated market. Despite the rhetoric of control, the reality is that OPEC+'s spare capacity, currently at 5.9 million barrels per day, limits any significant price increase. This, coupled with near-record production levels from non-OPEC countries like the United States, sets the stage for an oversupply scenario. The notion that demand will continue to grow unchecked is flawed. Global oil consumption growth is expected to slow dramatically from 2.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.1 million in 2024, with similar levels in 2025. This deceleration is driven by multiple factors including the rise of electric vehicles, increasing efficiency in traditional vehicles, and a stuttering economic recovery in major markets like China. The market's current bullishness is more sentiment than substance. Indicators like the Stoch RSI currently at 77.9 suggest we are nearing overbought territory, a strong indication that a reversal could be imminent. This high reading, combined with the parabolic SAR signaling an upward trend now, might just be the last gasp before a significant correction.
The technical and fundamental analyses converge on a bearish outlook. Long Forecast anticipates Brent oil, which closely tracks UKOIL, to hover around $60-$65 by 2026 before a potential rebound. This, combined with other forecasts suggesting a further decline in demand, paints a picture not of a soft landing, but of a sharp descent. If we extrapolate current trends and market sentiment shifts, $48 is not just a possibility but a probable near-term floor.
Investors should consider reducing exposure to oil-related equities or hedge against the risk through diversification into non-correlated assets. For those with the stomach for risk, this scenario presents a unique opportunity to short UKOIL CFDs. In closing, let us not be swayed by the siren song of current market highs. The fundamentals, much like gravity, will eventually pull prices back to earth. Prepare for the storm, for it's not a matter of if, but when.
Horban Brothers.
Alex Kostenich
"UKOILSPOT / BRENT Crude Oil" Energy Market Bearish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical and fundamental analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the "UKOILSPOT / BRENT Crude Oil" Energy market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long & Short entry. 👀 Be wealthy and safe trade 💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : You can enter a Bull or Bear trade at any point after the breakout.
Buy entry above 77.500
Sell Entry below 75.500
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 2H period, the recent / nearest Pullbacks.
Goal 🎯: Bullish Robbers TP 81.500 (or) Escape Before the Target
Bearish Robbers TP 72.500 (or) Escape Before the Target
📰🗞️Fundamental, Macro, Sentimental Outlook:
The "UKOILSPOT / BRENT Crude Oil" Energy market is expected to move in a bearish direction, driven by several key factors.
🟠Macroeconomic Factors:
1. Global Economic Slowdown: A slowdown in global economic growth, particularly in China, may decrease demand for crude oil, putting downward pressure on prices.
2. US-China Trade Tensions: Escalating trade tensions between the US and China may lead to a decline in global economic growth, negatively impacting oil demand.
3. Strong US Dollar: A strong US dollar may make crude oil more expensive for foreign buyers, reducing demand and putting downward pressure on prices.
🔴Fundamental Factors:
1. Increasing US Shale Oil Production: Rising US shale oil production may lead to a surplus in global oil supply, putting downward pressure on prices.
2. High Oil Inventory Levels: Elevated oil inventory levels in the US and other countries may indicate a surplus in global oil supply, negatively impacting prices.
3. OPEC+ Compliance Issues: Non-compliance by OPEC+ members with production cuts may lead to a surplus in global oil supply, putting downward pressure on prices.
🟢Trader/Market Sentimental Analysis:
1. Bearish Trader Sentiment: The CoT report shows that speculative traders are net short crude oil, indicating a bearish sentiment.
2. Market Sentiment: The market sentiment is bearish, with many analysts expecting crude oil prices to decline due to the supply surplus.
3. Technical Analysis: The technical analysis shows that crude oil is in a downtrend, with a bearish breakdown below the $70 level.
🟡Sentimental Outlook:
Bearish Sentiment: 55%
Bullish Sentiment: 30%
Neutral Sentiment: 15%
⚠️Trading Alert : News Releases and Position Management 📰 🗞️ 🚫🚏
As a reminder, news releases can have a significant impact on market prices and volatility. To minimize potential losses and protect your running positions,
we recommend the following:
Avoid taking new trades during news releases
Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect your running positions and lock in profits
🚨Please note that this is a general analysis and not personalized investment advice. It's essential to consider your own risk tolerance and market analysis before making any investment decisions.
🚨Keep in mind that these factors can change rapidly, and it's essential to stay up-to-date with market developments and adjust your analysis accordingly.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
WTI Crude Oil Futures: The Chokers of the Global EconomyLast Friday, January 10, 2025, the United States announced its most sweeping and aggressive sanctions against Russian oil trade, just ten days before Joe Biden leaves the White House and is replaced by Donald Trump.
In fact, it was more of a soap opera at first, as an unofficial document of unknown origin on the subject of sanctions had been circulating on the Web since the Fridays' morning before the official press release from the US Treasury appeared, causing the stock quotes of the companies affected by the sanctions to experience increased volatility in Friday trading on the local exchange.
Finally, about 160 oil tankers were sanctioned, and India, a key buyer of seaborne barrels, will not allow ships to call at its ports after the end of the curtailment period in March.
If these measures remain in place under Trump, they have a better chance of disrupting Russian oil exports than anything any Western power has done so far.
In addition to the tankers, sanctions were imposed on two major producers and exporters, traders arranging hundreds of shipments were listed, major insurers were named and two U.S. oil service providers were ordered to leave. A Chinese oil terminal operator was also included.
The measures could theoretically reduce what the International Energy Agency forecasts as a supply glut of nearly 1 million barrels a day this year.
Brent and WTI crude futures, which have generally traded lower for the past two and a half years, ended Friday at $80, data from ICE Futures Europe and CME Group's Nymex show.
Surgutneftegaz Sanctions RUS:SNGS and Gazpromneft RUS:SIBN are by far the most direct and aggressive move taken so far by Washington or any other Western power.
Together, the two companies shipped about 970,000 barrels of oil per day by sea in 2024, and their inclusion on the list will be a cause for concern for refineries in India as well as state-owned companies in China.
Putting their seaborne flows in context, that’s more than the global supply glut the International Energy Agency predicts for 2025. It’s also nearly 30% of Russia’s seaborne exports.
No one is suggesting that either company’s shipments will be completely shut down, but the fact that they are under sanctions, as well as other measures announced, means that supply chain disruptions and supply shortages cannot be ruled out.
Global markets, which were also hit by the December NFP report, reacted as expected.
The Nasdaq-100 immediately fell about 1%, the U.S. dollar index TVC:DXY rocketed to the moon while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds TVC:TNX jumped nearly 10 basis points to 4.785%, its highest since October 2023.
Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average - a benchmark for the global economy - ended last week lower for a sixth straight week, while Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Bears are already dreaming to enter a Bear Market, approaching a 20% decline from the highs of around $108,000 reached in December 2024.
The technical main graph is dedicated specifically to WTI oil futures (the contract following the expiring one), and supported by the averages of the 5- and 10-year SMA.
It points to the reversal of the disinflationary time span seen in the previous two and a half years, from mid-2022.
// Don't say "hop" , before you throned 😏
Crude OIL Follow the plan Oil is one of the main tools that pressure the global economy. This tool is manually controlled; I will not repeat who owns it.
For the last 10 years, I have seen this pattern very often when we see a triangle that breaks down, but before it collects liquidity from above and breaks the upper resistance
I talked about it in a previous post
The idea is still the same; the timings are stretched longer.
I intend to pick up a historical start this year, most likely at the end of the year.
That's my lazy plan.
The realization is more complicated because opening a position at the ideal entry point will be challenging. All shorts will be liquidated and stop out for a long time, so we will probably have to stand in the reversal formation phase for a long time.
I could go on and on about politics and how it's explained to you on TV. But I don't do that.
Best regards EXCAVO
$USOIL USOIL WT CRUDE OIL Descending TriangleTVC:USOIL USOIL WT CRUDE OIL price action has formed a Descending Triangle on the Weekly timeframe.
Current Price: 70.3
In previous years, #USOIL reached a high of 149 and retraced to a low of 66.4 (A retracement of over 50%)
A breakout of Descending triangle can lead to higher prices: 73.9, 84.4, 94.3
A break below 66.4 can lead to prices down to 42.7!
It remains to be seen...
UKOILSPOT "Brent Crude Oil" Energies Market Bullish Heist Plan🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo!🌟
Dear Money Makers & Robbers, 🤑 💰
Based on 🔥Thief Trading style technical analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the UKOILSPOT "Brent Crude Oil" Energies market. Please adhere to the strategy I've outlined in the chart, which emphasizes long entry. Our aim is the high-risk Red Zone. Risky level, overbought market, consolidation, trend reversal, trap at the level where traders and bearish robbers are stronger. 👀 So Be Careful, wealthy and safe trade.💪🏆🎉
Entry 📈 : You can enter a bull trade at Pullback,
however I advise placing Multiple Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low & high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low level.
Goal 🎯: 78.437
80.000
Scalpers, take note : only scalp on the Long side. If you have a lot of money, you can go straight away; if not, you can join swing traders and carry out the robbery plan. Use trailing SL to safeguard your money 💰.
Warning⚠️ : Our heist strategy is incompatible with Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️. We'll wreck our plan by smashing the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Avoid entering the market right after the news release.
Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan.
💖Supporting our robbery plan will enable us to effortlessly make and steal money 💰💵 Tell your friends, Colleagues and family to follow, like, and share. Boost the strength of our robbery team. Every day in this market make money with ease by using the Thief Trading Style.🏆💪🤝❤️🎉🚀
I'll see you soon with another heist plan, so stay tuned 🫂
USOIL Best Level to Short/Hold 10% swing trade setup🔸Hey guys, today let's review the 2 hour chart for US oil . Any upside is
limited by strong overhead resistances, currently trading near range highs
so overall risk/reward shifting in bears favor.
🔸Strong resistances will cap upside at 72.00 usd / 72.50 usd. right now
locked in tight trading range, however expecting final pump to trigger overhead stop losses before reversal and subsequent sell off event.
🔸Recommended strategy for BEARS: wait for the final pump before short selling from strong overhead resistances at 72.00 and 72.50 SL fixes at 74.00 usd, TP1 bears is 68 usd TP2 bears is 66 usd. swing trade setup, patience required. good luck!
🎁Please hit the like button and
🎁Leave a comment to support our team!
RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
USOIL WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS📊 USOIL Weekly Update
Technical View:
Not much has changed on the charts. Price remains within the expected range, waiting for a catalyst to break out.
Fundamental Highlights:
Geopolitics: TVC:UKOIL Brent hit ~$71, WTI at ~$67, driven by instability following the ousting of Syria's President.
Saudi Aramco: January crude prices for Asia slashed to early 2021 lows due to weak Chinese demand.
OPEC+: Delayed output hikes to April 2025; cuts extended through 2026.
U.S. Supply: Increased oil & gas rig activity adds pressure on prices.
Natural Gas: Futures rebounded 5% to $3.147 after last week’s losses.
🔑 Key Levels ( FX:USOIL WTI):
Bullish: Close above 21-period SMA ($72.37) targets 50-period SMA ($73.98).
Bearish: Close below $72.00 may see a drop toward ~$70.63.
📌 Trading Strategy:
Keep alerts set for key levels; patience is key as we await clearer directional moves.
💬 Let’s discuss more in comment below!
Happy Trading,
The NFX Team™ 💚
(Earlier shared this post but got taken down due to some off-platform mention (violation) - still getting used to the TV rules :) , reposted for reference purpose.)
Spot Crude Oil Energies Market Heist PlanHola! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
This is our master plan to Heist Spot Crude Oil Energies Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry should be in pullback.
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 4h timeframe
Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Long side, If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
UKOIL/Brent Crude Oil Energies Market Heist Plan on Bearish SideOla! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑💰
This is our master plan to Heist UKOIL / Brent Crude Oil Energies Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Near the Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich 💰.
Entry 👇 📉: Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Sell Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe, Recent / Nearest High Point entry should be in pullback.
Stop Loss 🛑: Recent Swing High using 1H timeframe
Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Short side, If you've got a money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
Brent/UK Oil Spot Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHallo! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
This is our master plan to Heist Brent/UK Oil Spot Market Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry in pullback.
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2H timeframe
Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Long side, If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
Crude Oil - High TideCrude oil is a very complicated market at this time - difficult to see through the fog. Given the second Trump presidency in January of 2025, Russian sanctions on exports and an ever complicated situation in the Middle East, the market appears virtually untouchable.
So let's break it down. Given that Trump has been granted a second term as president as of the first week of November 24', this is the single most important variable - and I will elaborate why.
The lines of resistance and support on this chart were drawn nearly a year ago yet remain relevant why? Because crude oil to the world, is priced in US Dollars. Any nation seeking to trade their natural resources is looking towards NYMEX, not because it is ideal but because it is LIQUID. This theme is virtually omnipresent in commodities and should be made note of. Regardless of what market a given entity is using to buy and sell commodities - particularly energy - it is priced given the current price of the most LIQUID index. So a sale of Russian oil brokered between China and India will bear some respectiveness to the NYMEX price of light crude oil, regardless of what product is being exchanged.
So first, lets try and examine the logistics of UREX crude.
As we can see, export of Russian crude oil has declined since it's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This would be expected, given that not only do EU sanctions against Russia specificy against its' ability to trade its' natural resource, but for international suppliers to qualify for insurance in transporting Russian product. This is an extremely difficult notion to quantify, and will only be approximated for the purposes of this essay. It is implicit given the energy security structure of the EU that Russian aggregate product (energy) will be supplied regardless of sanctions, however this agreement becomes more complicated and pricier for the EU when examined from a global perspective.
According to the media, Russia controls the marginal barrel of oil globally. This comes as a multi- decennial effort by the Putin administration to isolate Russian oil markets from influence by the US Dollar - a bold effort, for better or worse, has succeeded. Meaning that theoretically Nthrough OPEC, Russia can starve its competitors of profit by keeping the price of oil low enough that only they can produce profit at the margin, even in spite of EU sanctions.
An unflagged, or unregistered, fleet of commercial ships has emerged since 2022, which is extremely relevant to the proposed thesis. However given the opaque nature of this commercial fleet cannot be investigated, it will be assumed that they are enabling the commerciality of Russian crude oil globally, having secured a black market outside the realm of commercial shipping typically secured by the largest Navy globally, the USA.
The US Navy has ceased to protect commercial shipping in proximity to Yemen, as rebel groups such as the Houthi continue their aggression towards Western flagged commercial vessels. However, it is unclear of the influence of "black flagged", or unregistered and uninsured vessels carrying Russian crude, among other potentially illegal product through the region.
This is relevant, because as insurance rates have risen for global carriers, so too have the protests by major carriers against the sanctions placed against Russia. In a purely hypothetical landscape, carriers deemed illegitimate in the Western sphere of affairs have been able to transport product at a lower crude price, at a negotiable insurance rate previously commodified in the Western world. Commercial shipping insurers have at large protested against EU sanctions - unable to compete with the emergent black market.
Now we will assume that a Trump presidency will resume the regularity of oil exports and pricing as dictated by OPEC - however there remains several months of "negotiations". We can assume Trump parties have influence over these negotiations going into the January inauguration, yet a critical gap remains. As any nation would, the Russians and Saudis despite OPEC have an opportunity to control without impunity the marginal price of oil - the price at which US producers of crude oil will produce a profit. Historically it would be in the best interest of these nations to produce oil within the aforementioned margins.
However, given the global stance against fossil fuels, there is an opportunity for otherwise sanctioned nations to seize a great deal of power over their Western counterparts. Many refineries and wells in the US have been rendered dysfunctional under complex and opaque legal code instituted by the Biden administrations, and are unable to compete against their Russian counterparts altogether. In which case, before a "free-market" administration such as Trump in 2025 can stabilise crude markets globally, OPEC participants could force the price much higher. In spite of sanctions and a lack of negotiations, a elevated crude price would prove disastrous for developed nations such as Great Britain and Germany, who have no choice but to submit to Russian demands - or wait for US oversea exports, the logistics-intensive alternative.
In light of rapid and progressive political change, the crude oil market is an absolute hotbox. It is difficult to prove with data and charts what an opaque and mysterious market this is, but one can only assume OPEC has all the data a future Trump administrations has - which indicated unfettered Russian control over the price of crude oil as long as the war in Ukraine continues.
Whether peace can be negotiated remains a question for 2025. But for traders looking into commodities for 2025 - expect nothing less than chaos. The introduction of a black fleet complicated the role of OPEC immensely, who may seek over the next several years to integrate this emergent problem back into insurable shipping groups. Either way, EU sanctions have produced a long-term consequence to the market which should be on the radar of any savvy trader. Given the strength of the US Dollar and the consolidation trend in oil, any elevation in price will benefit Russians more than any other financial entity. It seems unlikely as of the time of writing the price will decline any further, as no party stands to gain below $70/barrel. An embargo as seen back in the 70s could push prices well over $100/ barrel, placing EU energy security in dire straits.
Crude oil battle trade:- Crude oil made it todays low and also it breaks previous day low @70.042$ and now it reversed from today low and previous day low above now trading . Crude oil have more potential for upside move for 71.200$ and 71.500$ for a day .
Stay tuned with me for more updates and follow me .
UKOIL / BRENT CRUDE OIL Market Money Heist Plan on Bullish SideHaaiii!! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
This is our master plan to Heist UKOIL / BRENT CRUDE OIL Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point.
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 2h timeframe
Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
CRUDE OIL (WTI): When the Gap Will Be Filled?
I strongly believe that a huge Monday's gap will be filled.
The confirmation that I am looking for is a breakout of a resistance
line of a horizontal range on a 4H.
4H candle close above the yellow structure will indicate
the strength of the buyers and make the market finally start rising.
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