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Is this worth a 5% drop in oil? Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the U.S. would give talks with Iran “every chance to succeed.” WTI crude dropped more than 5% to close at $88.68 a barrel, while Brent also fell more than 5% to settle at $94.29. “The bottom line is that we prefer the negotiated diplomatic route and we’re going to give it every chance to succeed,” Rubio said. That was enough for oil traders to hit sell. But the scale of the move raises a question: is the oil market so desperate for positive news that it is overreacting to any hint of diplomacy? The comment did not confirm a deal. It did not remove the risk of escalation. It simply suggested the U.S. still prefers a negotiated route.
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by BlackBull Markets
Gold H1 Bullish Reversal from FVG Support📝 Description After a sharp bearish displacement, TVC:GOLD has tapped into a key H1 Fair Value Gap (FVG) and is now showing signs of stabilization and accumulation. The reaction from this zone suggests a potential shift from short-term bearish pressure to a bullish retracement. ________________________________________ 📈 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bullish Preferred Setup: • Entry: 4788 • Stop Loss: Below 4770 • TP1: 4820 • TP2: 4845 • TP3: 4898 ________________________________________ 🧠 ICT & SMC Notes • Strong reaction from H1 FVG (discount zone) • Liquidity sweep below recent lows before reversal • Market structure showing potential shift (MSS) • Upside targets aligned with imbalance + liquidity pools • NWOG acting as mid-target magnet ________________________________________ 📌 Summary As long as price holds above 4770, the rejection from FVG increases probability of a bullish retracement toward 4820–4890. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment With easing Middle East tensions, risk appetite may return to markets. This shift can support upside in gold, as improving sentiment drives renewed demand, keeping bullish potential favored while stability persists. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
TVC:GOLDLong
by TradingFinder
Gold H4 Bullish Continuation from H4 FVG Support📝 Description TVC:GOLD is maintaining a bullish structure after a strong impulsive rally and is now consolidating above a higher timeframe Fair Value Gap support. The current price action shows a healthy retracement into the H4/H1 imbalance zone, suggesting potential continuation toward higher liquidity levels. ________________________________________ 📈 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bullish Preferred Setup: • Entry: 4755 • Stop Loss: Below 4724 • TP1: 4801 • TP2: 4828 • TP3: 4857 ________________________________________ 🧠 ICT & SMC Notes • Strong bullish impulse confirming higher timeframe structure shift • Price retracing into H4/H1 Fair Value Gap support • Holding above previous resistance which acts as support • Upside liquidity resting above recent highs and external range ________________________________________ 📌 Summary As long as price remains above the 4724 support zone, the retracement into the FVG area provides a continuation setup targeting 4801–4857. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment Despite the US–Iran ceasefire, lingering uncertainty and focus on upcoming negotiations keep demand for gold intact. As markets remain cautious, gold stays supported, with upside potential favored while geopolitical clarity is still developing. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
TVC:GOLDLong
by TradingFinder
1
EUR/USD surges as US-Iran ceasefire triggers dollar selloffThe geopolitical landscape has shifted overnight. A 2-week US-Iran ceasefire has triggered a major US dollar selloff, sending EUR/USD surging over 1% to fresh 1-month highs. We break down the sudden downturn in global rate hike expectations and map out the breakout trade setups ahead of critical USS data this week. Key topics covered - Geopolitical U-Turn : The Pakistan-brokered ceasefire and imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have crushed the recent energy-driven inflation panic, causing the US Dollar to dump. - Falling rate hike expectations : With the energy crisis cooling, the probability of an April ECB rate hike has dropped alongside Fed rate cut expectations being re-priced in. We preview how this shifts the focus to tonight's FOMC minutes and the upcoming US PCE and CPI data. - EUR/USD breakout : The euro has broken out of its recent flag pattern, pushing above the 38.2% Fibonacci at 1.1650. However, with the 4-hour RSI trades near 80, a near-term consolidation is likely. EUR/USD scenarios & trade plan Bullish (Retest setup) : A pullback and hold of the new 1.1650 support confirms the breakout and offers a swing-long opportunity. Entry: Long on a successful retest of 1.1650. Stop-Loss: Below the high-momentum breakout candle at 1.1591. Targets: The heavy consolidation zone between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. Bearish (False breakout): If the euro fails to hold support and loses the 1.1627 line in the sand, the bullish breakout is invalidated. Entry: Short on a confirmed break below 1.1627. Targets: An initial drop to 1.1591, exposing a deeper collapse back inside the flag pattern towards 1.1450 and the 1.1410 lows. Are you buying the breakout retest or anticipating a false break? Share your thoughts in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Long
by ThinkMarkets
EURUSD M30 Bullish Continuation After BPR Support Reaction📝 Description OANDA:EURUSD experienced a strong bullish displacement from the recent lows and is now retracing into a Balanced Price Range (BPR) support zone. The pullback into this imbalance area may provide a potential long opportunity before continuation toward the higher H1 Fair Value Gap targets. ________________________________________ 📈 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bullish Preferred Setup: • Entry: 1.1541 • Stop Loss: Below 1.1533 • TP1: 1.1557 • TP2: 1.1568 • TP3: 1.1586 ________________________________________ 🧠 ICT & SMC Notes • Strong bullish impulse creating clear market structure shift to the upside • Current retracement tapping into BPR support zone on M30 • Upside inefficiency remains in the H1 Fair Value Gap above price • Liquidity resting above recent highs may act as target for price delivery ________________________________________ 📌 Summary If price holds above the 1.1531 support zone, the pullback into the BPR area may offer a continuation long setup targeting 1.1557 to 1.1586. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment Reports of mediators pushing for a 45-day ceasefire in the Iran conflict could reduce geopolitical risk if confirmed. Such de-escalation would likely weaken safe-haven demand for the USD, while improving risk sentiment. In that scenario, EURUSD could gain upside momentum as the euro strengthens against a softer dollar. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
Long
by TradingFinder
Nasdaq 100 (US100): 10% correction or bear trap?The tech-heavy Nasdaq has experienced extreme volatility this week. After a brutal multi-day selloff that plunged the index down to 23,500, officially dropping more than 10% from its recent highs into correction territory, buyers stepped in aggressively. Thursday saw a massive swing, pushing the index back up to close above the 24,000 handle. Was this 10% plunge a false signal and a massive bear trap, or just a dead cat bounce before we head lower? We break down the crucial "Three-Day Rule" for confirming breakdowns and map out the key levels to watch as we head into a major holiday weekend. Key topics covered - Geopolitical relief rally: What sparked Thursday's massive reversal? We discuss the slight easing of geopolitical tensions, including rising hopes that commercial traffic may soon be allowed through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran announced it is drafting a maritime transit protocol with Oman. - "Three-Day rule" & false breakdown: We look closely at the official 10% correction threshold near 23,650. While the Nasdaq traded below this level, it only managed two daily closes below it, failing to meet the three consecutive closes typically required to technically confirm a structural breakdown. This suggests the recent dip might be a false break. - Holiday Liquidity Warning: With London and European markets closed for the Easter holidays (Good Friday and Easter Monday), institutional volume and liquidity will be exceptionally low. We explain why traders need to stay defensive through Friday's NFP data release and wait for the true market reaction when full volume returns on Tuesday. - Double Top neckline : We analyse the daily chart's massive double top pattern. The battleground is the support zone between the 23,800 neckline and the 23,650 correction limit. Nasdaq 100 scenarios & trade plan: - Bullish (Bear Trap recovery): If this bounce gains traction when institutions return on Tuesday, it completely invalidates the double top and the "official" correction. The immediate upside target is the short-term peak at 24,200. A break above that clears the path to the massive liquidity pool resting at the recent highs near 24,810. - Bearish (cconfirmed breakdown): If Tuesday brings renewed selling pressure and we officially break and hold below the 23,650 level (confirming the breakdown), the floor opens up. The first major structural support sits at 22,800, followed by 22,650. However, if the double top measured move plays out fully, the downside target points to a much deeper drop toward 21,390. Are you buying the dip or preparing for the measured move down to 21,390? Share your thoughts in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:NAS100
by ThinkMarkets
EURUSD H1 Bullish Reversal from Discount Imbalance📝 Description OANDA:EURUSD has reached a discount zone after an extended bearish move and swept sell-side liquidity below recent lows. Price is currently reacting near a higher-timeframe Fair Value Gap support, suggesting a potential bullish retracement toward the upper imbalance. ________________________________________ 📈 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bullish Preferred Setup: • Entry: 1.1480 • Stop Loss: Below 1.1468 • TP1: 1.1505 • TP2: 1.1521 • TP3: 1.1547 ________________________________________ 🧠 ICT & SMC Notes • Liquidity sweep below sell-side liquidity (SSL) • Market positioned in discount zone of the range • Presence of inefficiency above price acting as target • Potential bullish retracement toward upper imbalance ________________________________________ 📌 Summary If EURUSD holds above the 1.1470 support zone, the liquidity sweep may trigger a bullish retracement toward the imbalance targets around 1.1500–1.1530. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment With oil prices declining, inflation pressures in the US may ease, potentially reducing support for the dollar. As USD momentum softens, EURUSD could gain upside traction, with bullish continuation favored if dollar weakness persists. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
Long
by TradingFinder
WTI Crude spike: Iran mines vs IEA/SPR releases - Can 50% break?WTI Crude Oil is back in the green for a third consecutive session, rebounding after an unprecedented 33% intraday crash from the $113.00 highs. The oil market is currently a battleground between massive geopolitical supply shocks and coordinated global efforts to flood the market with emergency reserves. With volatility remaining high, we break down the critical 50% Fibonacci level that will dictate whether oil returns to triple digits or continues its consolidation. Key topics covered - The supply shock: Escalating tensions, including the US targeting Iranian banks, attacks on Gulf tankers, and reports of Iran laying underwater mines in the Strait of Hormuz, are keeping a massive risk premium in the market. - SPR drawdown vs. global demand : The IEA has announced a record 400-million-barrel release, bolstered by President Trump authorising a 172-million-barrel drawdown from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve over the next four months. However, with the Strait of Hormuz responsible for 20 million barrels of daily transit, this release only covers a fraction of the potential disruption. - The Macro breakout : We review the massive double (or triple) bottom breakout from the $55.00 level. WTI easily cleared the $77.00 neckline, achieving its 100% measured move target at $99.50 and spiking all the way to the 161.8% Fibonacci extension at $113.00 before dumping. - Momentum vs. structure : The daily RSI is hovering near 80. While heavily overbought, momentum can stay overbought in headline-driven markets. As long as price remains above the $77.00 neckline, the broader technical structure remains biased to the upside. WTI scenarios & trade plan: - Bearish (Short-term rejection): The pivot is the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $93.25. If WTI fails to break and hold it, the longer-term bias stays to the downside. Risk-takers fading the $93.25 resistance can expect a pullback to the 38.2% Fib at $84.20, and potentially a retest of the $76.50 - $77.00 neckline (likely driven by headlines of a truce or de-escalation). - Bullish (Return to triple digits): If buyers can break and hold above $93.25, it signals a sustained continuation. The immediate objective is filling Monday’s gap at the $99.50 open, with further upside potential toward the 61.8% Fib and a full duplication of the measured move pointing to $120.00. Are you shorting the 50% Fib or buying the dip for a run to $100? Share your thoughts in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:WTI
by ThinkMarkets
Brent Setting Up for US Session Expansion Toward 93.00Brent Crude May 2026 is currently trading around 89.57 after pulling back directly into the midpoint of the fair value gap, formed following the 1-hour upside break of structure. This is a key technical area. Price has now retraced into a high-interest zone where buyers may look to step back in, with the broader short-term structure still favouring continuation to the upside. As long as this reaction area holds, and fundementals support moving into the US session bent could build from here and push higher towards 93.00 as the main upside target. 1H bullish BOS remains valid Price has tapped the FVG midpoint Potential continuation from discount back toward premium 93.00 is the level in focus If news is favourable, momentum returns and buyers defend this zone properly, Brent could squeeze higher into session strength and make a run toward the target. Levels to watch: Current Price: 89.57 Bullish Target: 93.00 Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. I am not liable for any losses, damages, or outcomes incurred as a result of actions taken based on this analysis. All trading involves risk, and you should conduct your own research and seek professional advice where appropriate.
ICEEUR:BRNK2026Long
by UnderTheHedge
EURUSD M30 Bearish Rejection from NWOG Supply📝 Description OANDA:EURUSD has rallied into a higher-timeframe supply zone near the NWOG level and is currently showing signs of rejection. The price is trading in a premium area of the short-term range, suggesting a potential bearish move toward internal liquidity and imbalance zones below. ________________________________________ 📉 Signal / Analysis Primary Bias: Bearish below 1.1585 Preferred Setup: • Entry: 1.1561 • Stop Loss: Above 1.1576 • TP1: 1.1546 • TP2: 1.1535 • TP3: 1.1509 ________________________________________ 🧠 ICT & SMC Notes • Price reacting from NWOG supply zone • Liquidity resting below recent short-term lows • Bearish orderflow after rejection from higher-timeframe resistance • Targeting internal FVG and sell-side liquidity ________________________________________ 📌 Summary Unless EURUSD reclaims the 1.1585 resistance level, the market is likely to continue its bearish move toward lower liquidity pools and imbalance zones. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment Ongoing Middle East tensions continue to support safe-haven demand for the dollar. With USD remaining strong under elevated geopolitical risk, EURUSD stays biased to the downside, and rallies are likely corrective while uncertainty persists. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
Short
by TradingFinder
1
How the Iran–US Conflict Affects Markets (And What Traders WatchWhen tensions rise between major geopolitical players, financial markets rarely stay calm. Conflicts involving the United States and Iran tend to receive particular attention from traders because of the region’s importance to global energy supply and trade routes. The first market that usually reacts is oil. The Middle East accounts for a significant portion of global oil production, and a large share of that oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important shipping routes in the world. Even the possibility of disruption in this area can move oil prices quickly. Markets begin pricing in the risk of supply shortages long before any actual shortage occurs. For traders, this matters because oil is not just another commodity. It has a direct impact on the broader economy. When oil prices rise, the cost of transportation, manufacturing, and logistics increases across many industries. Companies spend more to produce and move goods, which often feeds into higher consumer prices. This creates inflation pressure, something central banks closely monitor when making interest rate decisions. Because of this connection, spikes in oil prices can affect multiple markets at once. Equity indices may weaken as higher energy costs reduce corporate margins. Currencies of oil-exporting countries sometimes strengthen, while oil-importing economies may face additional pressure. Another important effect is the shift in market sentiment. Geopolitical conflicts increase uncertainty. During these periods, many institutional investors reduce risk exposure and move capital toward assets that are perceived as safer or more stable. This can increase volatility across equities, commodities, and currencies, even in markets that are not directly connected to the conflict itself. However, one of the biggest mistakes traders make during geopolitical events is assuming the first market reaction will continue indefinitely. Markets tend to react very quickly to headlines, often within minutes. That first move is usually driven by uncertainty and speculation rather than confirmed information. As more details become available, the market often reassesses the situation. If supply disruptions or economic impacts appear less severe than expected, prices can retrace a large portion of the initial move. This is why experienced traders often focus less on the headline itself and more on how the market behaves after the first reaction. If oil spikes but then stabilizes at a higher level, it may suggest that the market expects a longer-term impact on supply. In that case, energy-related assets may continue trending. On the other hand, if the initial spike fades quickly, it often signals that the market believes the situation will not significantly affect global supply. Another useful observation is how different markets react relative to each other. For example, if oil rises sharply but equity markets remain stable, it may indicate that investors expect the impact to stay limited to the energy sector. But if equities, currencies, and commodities all start moving together, it usually signals broader risk-off sentiment across the market. For traders, the key takeaway is that geopolitical news creates volatility, but volatility alone is not a strategy. The real edge comes from understanding how markets typically process uncertainty. The headline triggers the move, but the market’s reaction over the following hours and days reveals whether the move is temporary or the beginning of a larger shift. Traders who focus on that second phase tend to make better decisions than those reacting purely to the initial news.
CRYPTO:BTCUSDEducation
by tomas_jntx
14
BRENT Geopolitical Supply Shock and Expansion Toward $90-92📝 Description Brent on the D1 timeframe is showing strong bullish displacement after breaking above key weekly liquidity around 71.62. As geopolitical tensions intensify and shipping activity drops, crude oil demand for risk hedging increases, reinforcing the bullish outlook with the next target at 90–92 USD. ________________________________________ 📈 Analysis (Scenario-Based) Primary Bias: Strong Bullish • Price has cleared major liquidity clusters and continues expanding upward • Current structure shows clean displacement with minimal pullback, typical of a supply shock move • Next technical magnet sits near HTF Order Block around 90–92 Upside continuation remains favored while price holds above the breakout structure. ________________________________________ 🎯 ICT & SMC Notes • Break above weekly liquidity confirms expansion • Strong displacement suggests institutional repricing • Upper HTF OB + FVG cluster acts as next liquidity objective • Pullbacks likely remain shallow while bullish momentum persists ________________________________________ 🧩 Summary Brent has entered a bullish expansion phase following a structural breakout. With momentum intact and higher liquidity pools above, the market is likely targeting the 90–92 USD region as the next major objective. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment Data from Bloomberg vessel tracking shows a sharp decline in ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting disruptions in energy transport flows. Combined with the escalation of Middle East conflicts, the market is pricing in a significant supply risk premium. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by TradingFinder
BTCUSDT H1 Liquidity Sweep Setup and Bullish Continuation📝 Description BINANCE:BTCUSDT on H1 is currently trading above a key intraday support cluster while approaching nearby liquidity pools. Despite expectations of risk-off pressure after the start of the conflict, Bitcoin has remained resilient and is moving within a bullish structure, suggesting strong underlying demand. ________________________________________ 📈 Analysis (Scenario-Based) Primary Bias: Bullish after liquidity sweep • Significant liquidity pools sit around 69,525 and 68,800 • Price may dip into these levels to collect sell-side liquidity (SSL) • These zones align with H1 FVG support, making them strong reaction areas • After liquidity collection, the higher-probability path favors upside expansion Upside Path: • Potential reversal from 69.5k–68.8k liquidity cluster • First target sits near 71,000 (previous high) • Further continuation could aim for the H4/H1 FVG around 71,800–72,000 ________________________________________ 🎯 ICT & SMC Notes • Liquidity pools at 69,525 & 68,800 acting as draw-on-price • Possible SSL sweep before expansion • H1 FVG below acting as support • Upper H4/H1 FVG remains the main upside magnet ________________________________________ 🧩 Summary Bitcoin appears to be forming a bullish liquidity sweep setup. A short-term dip toward 69.5k–68.8k may occur to collect liquidity, but the broader expectation favors continuation higher toward the 71.8k–72k FVG zone, especially given the unexpected bullish reaction following the start of the conflict. ________________________________________ 🌍 Fundamental Notes / Sentiment Interestingly, Bitcoin has moved higher despite the start of the war, signaling strong demand and risk-hedging behavior. If this sentiment persists, dips into liquidity zones are likely to be bought aggressively, reinforcing the bullish scenario. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Risk Disclosure Trading involves substantial risk and may result in capital loss. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always apply proper risk management, predefined stop-loss levels, and disciplined position sizing aligned with your trading plan.
BINANCE:BTCUSDTLong
by TradingFinder
XOM Bearish BOS at 149 — Middle East Tensions in Play?This is the XOM 4H chart. A bearish impulse candle topping around $158 indicates a shift in trend. Until recently, the overall trend was bullish. Multiple BOS events upwards ($124 to $152) indicate an imminent trend change. A significant ChoCh formed around $116 in late 2025, kicking off a bullish run. Price recently peaked at $158, then pulled back, breaking a prior swing low. The current price (149.70) is below immediate highs, suggesting an impending price drop. There is an area of resistance between $155 and $158, but no clear demand or supply zones on the chart. If the current price (149.70) dips below previous support, the trend may change. Trading advice is to wait for confirmation. Aggressive: Not recommended. There is no obvious low or high to trade off. A short on retest of the recent break ($151 to $152) on the 30-minute/1-hour timeframe may be considered. Set a tight stop loss above the previous swing high (around $153 to $154), targeting lower liquidity. Risk is high due to the lack of clear patterns after the initial break. Moderate: Wait for clear support or resistance on the 1-hour/30-minute chart. If the price supports and reverses (as on ChoCh on the 30-minute/15-minute charts), then go long for a move back towards $152 to $154. Set a stop loss below support. Conservative: Wait for a clear higher timeframe setup. This may mean a new strong demand zone and bullish correction or a deeper bearish correction. Look for a confirmation candle/retest on the 1H/30 chart for entry. Entry is on a precise break and retest or strong engulfing candle on the 15/5 charts. Stop loss is well below demand or above supply. Wait for a clear higher timeframe setup, which could signal new demand or a correction. Look for a confirmation candle on the 1H/30 chart for entry. Entry is on a precise break or strong candle, with a stop loss well below or above supply.
NYSE:XOM
by Jagad_pangestu
EUR/USD: Geopol shock & inflation crossfire – off to 1.16?EUR/USD has plunged back into its previous triangle range, driven by a wave of safe-haven flows into the US Dollar. The escalation between the US, Israel, and Iran over the weekend, which led to the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has sparked a global energy shock. Because Europe is highly dependent on energy imports, this crisis is hitting the Euro harder. Today’s Eurozone CPI release adds a wild card to the mix. With French inflation surprisingly hot last week, a similar European print could trigger short-term relief, while a cool print will align perfectly with the bearish geopolitical environment. Key topics covered - Safehaven dollar : The escalation in the Middle East and the disruption of oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz are damaging European growth prospects, while reinforcing the US Dollar's dominance. - Triangle false breakout : The recent peak above the triangle appears to have been the final wave of an exhausted uptrend. Prices have now fallen below the 61.8% Fibonacci at 1.1768 and the 78.6% level at 1.1682. - RSI momentum : The daily RSI has rejected the 50 centerline and is sliding toward 35, confirming that bears are firmly in control of the near-term trend, with more room towards 30. EUR/USD scenarios & CPI impact - Bearish (Geo/Macro alignment) : If today's Eurozone CPI comes in at or below expectations (1.7% headline, 2.2% core), the weakness aligns perfectly with the technical breakdown and the ongoing situation in the Middle East. The pair is highly likely to continue its slide toward the 1.1572 low (Wave E of the triangle). A break below this support opens the door to deeper medium-term declines toward 1.1472 and 1.1395. - Bullish (Short-term relief) : If the CPI prints surprisingly hot (similar to the French data), we could see a short-covering bounce. Prices would need to reclaim 1.1682, with immediate targets at the top trendline of the triangle and the 1.1768 (61.8% Fib) resistance. However, unless the pair can break back above 1.1829 (50% Fib) or we see an unexpected geopolitical truce, any upside is likely to be short-lived. Are you selling the Euro on the energy shock or speculating on a hot inflation bounce? Share your views in the comments. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Short
by ThinkMarkets
RidetheMacro| GBPRUB Russia on Track Again!A "no-deal" Brexit could be three times more costly to Britain's economy in the long term than the coronavirus outbreak, a new study published Tuesday warned.the political and economic effects of the pandemic were likely to mitigate or hide that of failing to secure a trade agreement with the EU. 📌 But in the short term, the lack of a new formal trading relationship with Brussels would be bad news for economic recovery and larger than the health crisis in the long term.The think-tank, which collaborated with the London School of Economics, said Brexit would hit growth in the coming years more than if the UK had opted to remain in the bloc. 📍 "The claim that the economic impacts of Covid-19 dwarf those of Brexit is almost certainly correct in the short term," its authors wrote. "Not even the most pessimistic scenarios suggest that a no-deal Brexit would lead to a fall in output comparable to that seen in the second quarter of 2020. 📍 "However -- assuming a reasonably strong recovery, and that government policies succeed in avoiding persistent mass unemployment -- in the long run, Brexit is likely to be more significant. 🔑 the UK’s recovery from the Covid-19 lockdown was losing momentum even before the announcement of new restrictions to control the spread of the virus, the latest snapshot of the economy has found. 📍 The closely watched monthly estimates from Cips/Markit found the level of activity at its lowest since June, the outlook for business at its weakest since May and jobs being shed at a rapid rate. The Cips/Markit report flash estimate of the service and manufacturing sectors dipped from 59.1 in August to 55.7 in September. but the survey was conducted before the introduction of fresh curbs across the UK this week. The marked dip in the PMI prompted speculation among City analysts that the UK could be heading for a tough end to 2020. 📍 The study estimated that the negative impact on gross domestic product would be 5.7 percent over the next 15 years compared with the current level, while GDP was forecast to take a 2.1-percent hit from Covid-19. The projections come despite a lack of clarity about the overall repercussions from the pandemic, and as a second wave of infections hits Europe. 📌 For RUB 🔑 The Salary growth numbers for July (this data comes with additional lag) significantly outperformed expectations, posting a 2.3% YoY jump in real terms after a 0.6% YoY increase in June. Though this data is more relevant to the larger businesses and state sector, and the situation in the SME sector could be different, other sources of income were likely supportive as well: the budget fulfillment data for 8M20 point at continued acceleration of spending on pensions and social security. 🔑 the earlier estimates for retail trade for April-July have been improved by 0.6-0.7ppt YoY, including from -2.6% YoY to -1.9% YoY in July, suggesting that the drop in smaller businesses was not as deep as expected. Until the Next Time.🙏 Ridethemacro
Short
by Ridethemacro