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VIX The Calm Before the Next Wave of Volatility! Recession RisksAfter last week’s sharp selloff across equities and crypto, followed by a swift recovery on Monday, many traders are once again lulled into a sense of comfort. But beneath the surface, volatility is quietly building — and the VIX is starting to tell the story. From Panic to Complacency — Too Fast Friday’s market crash revealed how fragile sentiment still is. We saw broad-based liquidations, risk-off flows, and a short spike in volatility as traders scrambled for protection. Then, as if nothing happened, Monday brought a sharp rebound — driven by short-covering, dip-buying algos, and a belief that the correction was “overdone.” Geopolitical Flashpoints: U.S.-China Tensions The ongoing conflict between the U.S. and China over critical metals exports has intensified. China controls a large portion of rare earth metals, essential for electronics, batteries, and defense technology. Recent U.S. threats to impose sanctions or tariffs on key exports, coupled with potential Chinese retaliatory measures, have created uncertainty for supply chains. Markets hate uncertainty. Every news cycle mentioning trade escalation acts like a volatility catalyst, as investors hedge against unexpected economic shocks. This alone can drive the VIX higher, even if the S&P 500 has short-term rallies. Trump Tariff Threats and Market Psychology Adding fuel to the fire, former President Trump has repeatedly hinted at renewed tariff measures. While the headlines may seem political theater, history shows that even the anticipation of tariffs can disrupt equities and spark short-term volatility spikes. Friday’s selloff can be partially attributed to traders pricing in these geopolitical and policy risks, which are not reflected in earnings reports or fundamentals — making hedging through VIX-linked products increasingly attractive. Earnings and Economic Signals Beyond geopolitics, the earnings season will likely reveal weak spots across sectors. Companies exposed to global supply chains, tech hardware, and industrials may report margins under pressure. This combination — disappointing earnings and global trade uncertainty — often precedes volatility expansions. Historical patterns show that VIX rises ahead of earnings dispersion and macro shocks, as investors scramble for protection against downside surprises. Potential upside target: 25+ if earnings disappoint and SPX breaks below $6000
TVC:VIXLong
by TopgOptions
VIX set-up....interesting week aheadTo the untrained eye, you see VIX go up and down, just like any other time. Taking a big step back, you'll know that VIX has been super complacent (very strange looking back 30 years) for about 6 months. Over the last few days, we see SMA9 crossing UP SMA50! Why does this matter? Because when VIX spikes, it really spikes! Next week we have the gov shutdown and a lot of funky things going on with Russia / NATO that can spark something big, hopefully not! Many other news could spike it, but we've seen a weakness in the general market and potentially a Volmageddon 2.0 in the making. Put your alerts on and nice upside with $UVIX!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
$VIX We only just started! Volmageddon 2.0Zoom out on the VIX and you'll find that there is A LOT more runway. Study the VIX for the last 30 years and you'll find that it bottoms out and explodes. We are not at a turning point in the markets with ultra high "hot air balloons" that will come down with a correction that is long overdue. The VIX hasn't been this low in a very long time, so you want to keep the proxy CBOE:UVIX in your radar. Happy trading! Always look to make lemonade out of lemons :)
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
Volmageddon 2.0 in the making.....must watch!I have been saying this for months! Keep an eye on the VIX, always! Yes, it's been down for 5-6 months in a very unnatural way, but things are about to take a turn and potentially in a big way. Ultra-high valuations, crap unemployment, defaults through the roof, PE/CAPE ratios at historic levels, and highest concentration / weight in the stock market. 10 tech companies buying from each other like very good friends with 100% capex that hasn't been spent = 40% of S&P, seriously, WTF! In any case, it's not rosy, and we are overdue a massive spike in the VIX. Use the proxy ETF CBOE:UVIX and add alerts. Best of luck!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
What will happen to VIX after another crappy jobs report today?While there is no crystal ball, the jobs market is beyond horrible and many precursors to a massive pullback on coming together; credit defaults, unemployment (after several revisions, each one worse than the last one), China pulling back on US based AI tech (what AI bubble?), and valuations that peak dot.com bubble. The VIX has been unnaturally low, hedge funds are shorting it!, and let's not forget volmaggedon! Could spike any second and it likely will before people get too complacent. This is a recipe for v-maggedon 2.0. Bullish on the economy, but not blind to facts and historical standards when things look very wonky. Best of luck out there! Everyone is a genius when the market is up :)
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
VIX looking real sweet now before tomorrow's Job numbersIf you're looking for a nice upside before things get wonky, then look at the $VIX! It's starting to tick-up from all the complacency - folks buying at all time high with insane valuations just not supported historically. The jobs numbers is expected to look pretty grim tomorrow, and with that the market can correct itself. The proxy for TVC:VIX is $UVIX. If you need help, just check the ultrabuy / short signals and you should be fine! Best of luck and stay active in the market otherwise you could be a bag holder for a while, and that's not fun!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
5
VIX looking real sweet now (use UVIX as proxy)For those tracking macros and true diversification, this is a potential nice play with a massive upside. Look at last year around July 17th. We are nearing this. Historically, the VIX bottoms out around 17-18 and it's sitting at 15. It doesn't stay in this region for too long. Most macros are looking extremely brittle and cracks are forming everywhere. I'd argue that the macros look worse now than in early 20202. Track this, put alerts on, use whatever technical you prefer, but this will spike and it's a massive upside. Some use UVIX as the proxy for the VIX :) Best of luck and always take calculated risks. If not, just go to your trusty bank and get 0.02% return annually!
TVC:VIXLong
by antonini2002
Soon she will grow like a tree....UVIX (VIX proxy)Don't underestimate the VIX spike (UVIX is highly correlated), which has been sitting at a ONE YEAR low, which is extremely rare - only in times when a massive correction is about to happen! Frame this post bc historically VIX doesn't sit around 15 for too long (over 30 years). A major jump is unraveling and AI bubble will burst. Japan's long term interest rates are exploding and the Fed's short term rate cut cannot stop it since it's based on market demand / supply.
CBOE:UVIXLong
by antonini2002
2
VIX drop before the next ZOOM upWhat we experienced last week was absolutely insane in terms of volatility. The beauty of all of this is that it's still a trend and many of these spikes are quite predictable. We all knew about the days the tariffs that were going to hit, right? Why didn't you get into UVIX when I called this out days in advance. It's fine, you will have another shot! Actually, we're in line for many many more spikes which is the great thing. Volatility is your friend! I'll be posting weekly and will be giving away a Free trading alert that has been backtested for the last 3 years over the next week. 2025 will be awesome! Expect VIX to drop a bit more, great to get in on the SVIX and then let's analyze the next trend and take on UVIX on the upside! This is so easy....
TVC:VIXShort
by antonini2002
3
Traded UVIX This Morning, Just After Open. Position Closed NowIs CBOE:UVIX right for you? Would you also like to earn when the market is down? If so check it out, I traded $UIVX right after the open and have already closed the position. I usually don't day trade, but on a down day like today I couldn't resist trying the downside with Ultra Short Futures Options. These instruments aren't for everyone, & most people who own them lose money over time, so please be careful and only risk as much as you can afford to lose.
CBOE:UVIX
by CryptoQue
2
VIX to $17 Soon for another key trend line resistance test!Ensure you hedge your trades and know your maximum loss and profit, especially if you have limited funds to dollar cost average or are trading options. For informational and educational purposes only, I prefer buying laddered call options on UVIX (1.5x), VXX (1x), and UVXY (2x) at sub-$13 levels over 2-4 weeks that align with my long "risk on" call expirations. This way, I can sell the pops and use the proceeds to add to my most committed "risk on" positions. Good luck! @candlestickninjatv
TVC:VIXLong
by candlestickninja
Buy VIX Futs with an ETF for simplicity before Santa rally overDowbt Im only one who is front running reversal unjustified market rally with no earning proof driven by inflation that is diminishing no longer supporting earnings JPM'a theory basically mid this pas year but he was correct but too early to the earnings crash party! Now that Dem's fiscal punch bowl is nearly empty adding 7 trillion to national debt in less than a year to help midterms and markets just priced in 5 rate cuts and earnings multiples at 20 (long-term=15) including mag-7 take out mag-7 not so hot). Hard to justify any more growth with excelorating diss-inflation and "black-swan" risk is non-black swan character as so many increasingly potential systemic risk just keep stacking up, plus a corrupted Presidential Administration, Congress, Dept. of Justice, FBI, Dept. of homeland security, school system, universities, and mainstream media have perpetuated/caused the problem with bs employment numbers, omissions and flat out lies as well as staring wars, ruining trade agreements and unleashing the worst inflation in 40 years all about to collapse from sheer societal rejection that will most likely be exposed causing worst crash best described by Jeremy Gratham (just YouTube him if your not familiar with the oldest and most historically-successful "Wall-Streeter perma-bear") NOTICE: Expressions are not recommendation or advice. If you are not competent then obviously should consult what is called an "Advisor" on the subject. Don't blame me if you make a decision based on this as it is only an opinion and past performance does not constitute a reasonable basis for future performance or non-performance as we don't have a time-machine obviously this goes without saying but some really doubt people make it a habit to assume they know with certainty and can guarantee what the future holds and to those I say sit down and humble your self or the market will humble you for yourself in "New York Second," and that is pretty fast. Just saying, don't be a fool and use common sense and trade size and don't blame others for your decisions, and, trade responsibly.
CBOE:UVIXLong
by CurrencyCapital
1
VIX - The 72-Handle PreludeI will reiterate again, as I have in my past posts, notably: Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning Signal That if you are bullish on US equities into the future and want to see a healthy economy into '24 and '25, you DO NOT want to see a new all time high to be set yet. Instead, you want a correction. A major correction is just that: a correction. A correction gives a number of elements an opportunity to rebalance and reload so that a new phase of markup, and thus profits for longs, can unfold. The VIX controls a lot of things, namely the price of options. Really, what this means for most people is it controls the price of "protection," i.e. puts. And since the VIX is now trading at a low not seen since June of '21 and in an area of accumulation that spanned 3 years between '18 and '20, if you think a new all time high on equities is coming, you're actually saying that VIX is going to trade to 5. And you may very well be right. It's a very difficult situation. However, net liquidity is coming out of the system, and the indexes and equities rallied from mid-June to mid-August of last year. The algorithm rarely runs the same pattern at the same time twice. Moreover, there's a lot of problems brewing in this world with the War in Ukraine connected to Vladimir Putin and the situation in mainland China with Xi Jinping still at the helm of the notorious and unforgivable Chinese Communist Party. There are handles a major arranged correction in the markets are not going to print on VIX. 1. VIX will not print GFC highs 2. VIX will not print the millennial-titled "Coronavirus Disease 2019" highs 3. VIX will not print 50-handles Instead, VIX, in my opinion, will print a 72-handle. One of the truths in the market place is the easiest and most consistent money is not only that the market goes up, but selling volatility after the dust on periodical propaganda has settled is free money. A free money train always continues and you're never a part of it because you're trying to long MULN and Bed Bloodbath and Beyond for a MOASS. So, let's take a look at the ETFs. There are some notable pieces of evidence in the price action that show something ought to change, and quickly. The first is in the SVXY inverse VIX ETF, which has taken out the pre-COVID high, and by a lot. LT short seller funds: they dead. But a more notable case is that of the UVIX 2x leveraged bull ETF It was 5:1 reverse split to start the year, had one bounce during the bank collapse hysteria, and then lost 80% of its value. UVIX trades under $1 pre-split. You're looking for a MOASS on shitcoins, but here's a real opportunity. Notable is also that HUV, the Toronto Stock Exchange VIX (non-levered bull) ETF, is in a similar boat. It 6:1 reverse split in February, had one bounce, and lost half its value, trading to barely over $3 pre-split. You can care about Canada because there are arbitrage opportunities with the USDCAD currency pair and because our holidays and your holidays are not the same, like "Juneteenth," and so there is opportunity in manipulation. What I can say is that there's an argument, if nothing else, to long volatility in extreme situations as a way of defending your long positions. People are willing to allocate 40 percent of their portfolio to bonds that just don't go up when the market pumps and don't go up when the market goes down. So why not hedge with volatility? That being said, if Nasdaq goes to 9,000 points, are you really willing to hold your $400 NVDIA? Humans never believe in what they don't see. They only believe after they've been shown, and then it's too late. What I truly hope for everyone who has a kind heart is not only that you can preserve your money through the chaos and manipulation, but walk out of the machinations stronger, better, healthier, and with a bright future. For this, and only this, is what you have waited for.
TVC:VIXLong
by LordWrymouth
4
Entering SDOW is the ideaDIA daily went to a sell, waiting for price action to approach the P.O.M.O Position of maximum opportunity on DIA. With such a nice risk reward why not. My idea would be to play it via SDOW This short is riskier, Vix 1hr and 15min are R/R. DIA and SPY 1hrs went green. You just want to note the daily went to sell on DIA, waiting for it to retrace up to the pomo'y area for a small risk trade. Overall trading this way (waiting for a pomo that meets your bias) is about like a sore peter, you just can't beat it. AMEX:SDOW AMEX:DIA AMEX:SPY
AMEX:DIAShort
by lightningfreek
TLT - US 20 Year Treasury SELLOFF Treasury yield is the effective annual interest rate that the U.S. government pays on one of its debt obligations, expressed as a percentage. Put another way, Treasury yield is the annual return investors can expect from holding a U.S. government security with a given maturity. Treasury yields don't just affect how much the government pays to borrow and how much investors earn by buying government bonds. They also influence the interest rates consumers and businesses pay on loans to buy real estate, vehicles, and equipment. Treasury yields also show how investors assess the economy's prospects. The higher the yields on long-term U.S. Treasuries, the more confidence investors have in the economic outlook. But high long-term yields can also be a signal of rising inflation expectations. Treasury yields are inversely related to Treasury prices. Treasury yields can go up, sending bond prices lower, if the Federal Reserve increases its target for the federal funds rate (in other words, if it tightens monetary policy), or even if investors merely come to expect the fed funds rate to go up. An inverted yield curve on which the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has declined below that on the 2-year Treasury note (to cite just one popular benchmark) has usually preceded recessions. A rising yield indicates falling demand for Treasury bonds, which means investors prefer higher-risk, higher-reward investments. STONKS GO UP, FORCING THE FED TO REMAIN HAWKISH! A falling yield suggests the opposite.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by EpicEconomics