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UVXY

Long UVXY OpExIdea for UVXY: - We are in the WINDOW OF WEAKNESS (OpEx, FOMC). - Now we have made a Right Shoulder and DCH on Indices, the nature of today's rally appeared too quick and corrective in nature against the dominant cycle: - Price first appeared to have easily broken back into the wedge, yet fell back out in the end of the day, indicative of a possible TRAP before QUAD WITCHING. - Price offers a QUALITY psychological stop, should it easily rise over 4500 (in which case it should rise to the top of the wedge). VIX trendline with the wick below: - We give it another try: Long UVXY 25C Oct 15 GLHF - DPT
CBOE:UVXYLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
1
UVXY Daily TimeframeSNIPER STRATEGY This magical strategy works like a clock on almost any charts Although I have to say it can’t predict pullbacks, so I do not suggest this strategy for leverage trading. It will not give you the whole wave like any other strategy out there but it will give you huge part of the wave. The best timeframe for this strategy is Daily, Weekly and Monthly however it can work any timeframe above three minutes. Start believing in this strategy because it will reward believers with huge profit. There is a lot more about this strategy. It can predict and also it can give you almost exact buy or sell time on the spot. I am developing it even more so stay tuned and start to follow me for more signals and forecasts.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by hadimozayan
5
Monthly Dip on SPX?Hey everyone! I’ve been watching SPX to swing trade UVXY over the last couple of weeks, and I’ve noticed an interesting trend occurring. About around the first third of every month, we’ll hit the top trend line and bounce down to the bottom line. So far it’s proven to be accurate with surprising regularity, starting in about mid-June Should we begin to bounce off the bottom trend line in the next few days, feel free to ride SPX up, and then keep your eyes peeled in October for a good opportunity to short, or, as I would recommend, buy UVXY! Happy trades!
SP:SPX
by MageInvestor
Hang Seng Bear Market, Dollar Break Out, Vix Up, Welcome to OpexGood morning, folks, and happy Friday! Welcome to Opex; let's get right into our analysis. It was another shakey overnight session with Asian stocks leading global futures lower after China said it would pass a strict privacy law by Nov 1st, directly affecting tech and ecommerce companies and their collection and use of certain types of data from their customers. The Hang Seng is now officially in a bear market (>20% drop from the ATH). As of 8:15AM the Dow is down -0.52% to 34,711, the S&P is down -0.40% to 4,388, the Nasdaq is down -0.14% to 14,913, and the Russell is down -0.55% to 2,117. The Vix is sitting at 22.93 after rallying earlier this morning around 3:00AM toward 23.90. We've just retested the descending trendline once again, and we saw a light rejection. We have solid momo in vol this week, and today's Opex could really escalate the risk off move we've been seeing across global markets. I'm expecting another leg higher in Vix as early as next week, so my plan is to prepare for some potentially ugly month end selling, then reassess our short to medium term outlook. The US10Y yield continues to sink as investors flood into USTs in search of a safe haven. We're sitting on top the 50MA (w) at 1.23% and although we appear to have found support here, this is the 3rd test of support, and if it goes, it could trigger aggressive bond buying/risk off behaviour. The Dollar (DXY) is in the process of breaking out into the wedge. We're up again this morning and we just saw a new HOD at 93.708. If we end the week at the high's, let's say a 94 handle, this could set us up for a massive breakout toward the 95/96 area as early as next week. Let's see how the cookie crumbles on this beautiful Friday. Good luck out there today, my friends, and see you all at 9:30AM for our live analysis and weekly wrap up. Cheers! Michael. * I am/we are currently long UVXY, HUV.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
15
King Dollar Here, Where's Risk?Our focus on the dollar today is based on the fact that for over a year the DXY has been forming a double bottom reversal pattern. Now that we're back near the recent high's, we're seeing the stars align for a major market correction, not necessarily off the back of a DXY breakout, but perhaps because of a major risk off move across the asset classes. I mean, the Fed did just say they're going to begin a taper schedule as early as this year. If that doesn't spook markets, I don't know what will. Power hour in 40 minutes...
TVC:DXYLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
Fed Sparks Global Market Meltdown, Vixplosion Next?Good morning, folks! Well, well, well, the Fed decides to taper this year, and all of a sudden all hell breaks loose in global markets. If you're thinking this entire "recovery" was just one big magic trick of coordinated monetary debasement, you're absolutely right, and the market's reaction to the Fed minutes yesterday (and today) is a perfect demonstration of the farce. It was an ugly overnight session across global markets, and as of 8:40AM, the Dow is down -0.91% to 34,645, the S&P is down -0.77% to 4,366, the Nasdaq is down -0.60% to 14,769, and the Russell is getting monkey hammered, we're down -1.65% to 2,128 (after losing long term ascending trendline support yesterday). Vix is up a whopping 52% this week and sitting at a 23 handle. We're in the process of testing the descending trendline from the March 2020 high around 85. If this resistance crumbles, imo Vix is going to a 40 handle, and possibly a 50 handle by EOM. Don't forget, we have Jackson Hole at the end of August as well, and if the sentiment at the event is negative after the Fed's hawkish minutes, Vix could have a multi-week breakout, sending it back toward last year's high's. We all know valuations are at nose bleed levels, and speculation is at ATH's. The Fed was the only thing standing in the way of a return of price discovery/fundamentals, and now they've folded their hand to inflation. You know what comes next. The dollar is scorching higher this morning - we actually tested the lower band of the wedge around 93.50 moments ago, before cooling back to 93.37. If we see a notable shift in the US Equity Put/Call, we're likely going to see a dollar breakout to our previous target around 95. This would imply a major correction across the asset classes. Simultaneously, USTs are being bid here which is sending rates tumbling also. The last time we saw a divergence this large against the S&P was in February 2020, just before the market crashed. In other words, the bond market clearly knows something stocks don't, and bond investors have been positioning for a crash since the US10Y yield peaked in March 2021. In Crypto, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) slipped back to a 43k handle before recovering some of the losses. We're sitting at 44,486 and looking brittle. Having said that we have the 21EMA just below us at 43,359, as well as the 21EMA (w) around 40,867. These supports are likely to hold in the interim, but if we do get a multi-week repricing of risk, it's highly probable we see a revisit of the July low around a 29k handle by next week. Ether (ETHUSD) also appears to be losing steam here and rolling over aggressively on the weekly timeframe. A retest of the 21EMA (w) around 2,418 would be my base case in a prolonged risk off scenario. Finally, on the data front, we saw initial claims come in this morning at 348k vs the 370k expected, while continuing claims slipped to 2.82MM vs the prior print of 2.899MM. This is actually not good for markets because the hotter the economy gets, the more the Fed will step off the gas. For a change, good news is bad news. The Philadelphia Fed index also came in moments go which shows an ugly divergence between the analysts expectations and reality. We're looking at 19.4 vs the 24 expected. Clearly regional manufacturing/business growth is slowing rapidly, hinting at stagflation dead ahead. Trade accordingly... Thanks for your time today guys and enjoy the rest of your day, it should be a very exciting day of trade! Cheers, Michael. * I am/we are currently long UVXY, HUV
TVC:VIXLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
10
Futures Dip Ahead of Potentially Hawkish Fed MinutesGood morning, folks! It was a relatively quiet overnight session with futures drifting sideways and trading essentially flat as we approach the open. As of 8:45AM the Dow is down -0.20% to 35,187, the S&P is down -0.11% to 4,438.75, the Russell is up 0.11% to 2,176.90, and the Nasdaq is down -0.3% to 14,989.75. Traders will be keeping a close eye on today's Fed minutes (from July) for any hints/announcements of balance sheet tapering, changes to the inflation/economic outlook, and of course, any changes in rates. It's unlikely we'll see any major policy changes from the last meeting, however, I do expect more of the members to begin turning hawkish as PPI approaches 8% and CPI 5.5%. Some analysts expect the Fed to announce a taper schedule to begin as early as October and to run for as long as 10 months into mid 2022. That sounds about right, but if markets or the economy react poorly to the Fed's tighter policy stance, how long until they reverse course (again)? Wash, rinse, repeat. Moments ago we saw the MBA Mortgage Applications Index come in at -3.9% vs the prior print of 2.8%. We also saw Housing Starts come in at 1,534k vs the 1,610k expected, while Building Permits rose 1,635k vs the 1,610k expected. At 10:30AM we'll see the latest EIA Crude Oil Inventories, and then of course, at 2:00PM we'll get the July Fed minutes followed by the Powell Q&A. * I am/we are currently long HUV, UVXY
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
VIX - Price Objective Traded for Micros / LONG ApproachingPrice remains in a well controlled descent, although Price has completed a Target for retracement. Retracements have been minor measure moves, 6 failures at each RT. CASH / SPOT VIX has a Daily GAP at 14.80, lower Range is 14.20. The parabolic move off the lows could see 150-200% gains in very short order. We patiently wait for fills at targets with No Positions. A reversal is setting up for an extreme move on the Daily/Weekly TF.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by HK_L61
1
NFP Beats, Futures Hover Near ATH's (Again)Happy Friday, folks! Another week has come and gone, and US Futures (sans the Russell) are glued to the ATH's. Will the nightmare ever end? We drifted higher all day yesterday, only to see yet another short squeeze into the close. The equity inflows are absolutely relentless, and with today's NFP report blowing away expectations (943k vs the 925k expected), and unemployment dropping to 5.4% vs the 5.6% expected, markets couldn't possibly be more exuberant. Having said that, the notable improvement in the labour market could give the Fed the ammunition it needs to taper bond purchases as early as Q4 2021. We all know the last time the Fed tried to taper, markets crashed, so when the same thing happens this time, how long will it be before they resume their bond purchases? I swear with each passing day, the market becomes less and less recognizable, and price action makes less and less sense. As of 9:00AM, the S&P is down -0.6% to 4,418.50, the Dow is up 0.16% to 34,995, the Russell is up 0.50% to 2,243, and the Nasdaq is down -0.51% to 15,091. We're seeing a solid bid for the dollar (DXY) as we slowly work our way back up to wedge resistance. We're sitting at 92.62 heading into the cash open, and up around 0.41% on the day. While the dollar is bid, the US10Y yield is rising also, potentially off the back of stronger than expected jobs data, and rising expectations of Fed tapering sooner rather than later. Bitcoin (BTCUSD) had a solid rally yesterday tagging a 41k handle, while also recapturing the 21EMA (w) - I do expect a rejection today to end the week below the 21EMA (w). We're down -0.32% on the day, and sitting at 40,793. Gold on the other hand is seeing some notable outflows; we're down -1.63% to 1,779. Lastly, Vix is down -0.69% to 17.14, and sitting just above the multi-year ascending trendline support. At the moment it looks as though markets will never fall more than a couple percent again, but there's a lot happening under the surface that retail investors aren't seeing, and the Fed knows they're going to be the reason markets crash again. Let's see how the month shapes up and if we get that correction we've been waiting so patiently for off the back of increasing Fed hawkishness. Have a great weekend everyone. Cheers, Michael.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
2