Black FridayUp to 80% OFF

UVXY

America Targets Forced Labor--Gives Economic AdvantageThat's probably the only reason why they care too, lol...It creates an unfair economic advantage--and that's it! (Newsquawk) "Furthermore, it was reported that the US administration will engage with allies to combat forced labour including in China and will examine how the Treasury, Commerce Department and USTR can work together to deter currency intervention for trade advantage and is to pursue all available tools to address China's unfair trade practices from excess capacity to coercive technology transfers." See, we've just displayed a clear economic incentive to stop forced labor. More proof capitalism is the answer to all the world's problems. Just kidding lol ;)
NYSE:BABA
by stocktradez6
☢️ 💣Market Volmadeggon: VIX – sky is the limitHi guys, is this VIX chart is like „deja vu“?? At last financial crisis at 2008 the simmilar pattern created like recent months. Treasury spread yields telling the same story again in lower pane. After first cross of its 12-month MA it takes 5 months to firs bigger surge in TVC:VIX . Then it takes 13 bars to yield spread approach to 2%, then volmadeggon begun…. The situation on chart looks familiar now... If history repeats this time not be different but much bigger than 2008 After first cross 12 month MA of Yields spread it takes 3 bars to new higher high on TVC:VIX 37.5 in 2008. This month its 12 bars from TVC:VIX new higher high 85.5 when COVID-19 pandemy started.You can observe same massive vix squeeze as in 2008. So its looks like this year 2021 will be EPIC & LEGENDARY in financial markets As you notice in chart, my target is at 2.61 Fibbonacci retracement level because this level was reached at 2008 too. If you like the idea, do not forget to support with a 👍 like and follow. Leave a comment that is helpful or encouraging. Let's master the markets together.
TVC:VIXLong
by Tomasgei
8
SPY is going down these next two months 🧨🔨In Elliott Wave Theory there are only two kinds of moves: Impulses , and Corrections . We can all agree that since November, this grind up is not an impulse, which means... that this is a correction. Wave B's are nicknamed "The Suckers Rally" and boy are there a lot of suckers, including myself lol. VPVR points to a retest of last years high (big money buy zone) >Max Pain next month is at 375 >Max Pain the month after is at 369 >It would also explain the HUGE bearish divergence since September. I'm rolling with this count, as it is the only one that makes sense from a textbook perspective. Todays idea is also in line with the first bearish outlook I ever gave spy on Jan 23rd.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by notoriousbids
2
Get some insurance at least UVXY At this point of time if you are freaking out about the perspectives of the market you should get some insurance for your portfolio by getting some UVXY shares. Not financial advice though. just an idea. Good luck investing and trading! Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation. Personally I hold both long term long positions and occasionally short term short position, for disclosure purpose.
CBOE:UVXY
by hanzhao311
2
Global Futures Tank on Yield SpookUS Markets traded relatively flat in the overnight session, with European and Asian markets getting clobbered. The FTSE 100 was down 1.75%, with CAC 40 seeing a 1% sell-off. The Hang Seng was down by as much as 4%, while Japan's Nikkei 225 saw a 2.7% drop. I think it goes without saying that yields across the globe are rising, particularly on the long end of the curve, and after yesterday's insane rally in the US 10Y yield to 1.563%. The US 10Y yield saw some light selling this morning back to a 1.46% handle, but is looking poised to rally higher. YCC is being tested specifically in Australia and Japan, as key benchmark yields cross YCC thresholds. YCC not working? Although, I would say, many investment banks are talking about buy the dippers coming out to take advantage of the anticipated interim short covering. I don't see that happening, as I think yields are now getting started, and US Treasuries are still overvalued. In volatility, after a slow start to the day yesterday, Vix caught a massive bid as we approached the afternoon session, and again at the close of trade. We spiked as high as a 31 handle, before cooling back to 29. We're currently sitting around 28 in premarket trade, and looking poised to go higher, particularly if global sentiment is any indication of today's price action. I'm holding my UVXY, and HUV until I see a major correction in risk assets. Absent a spike to 40's, I'll remain long Vix (barring a material improvement in the outlook for risk). The Dollar (DXY) is extending gains today after a strong performance yesterday. We opened down at an 89 handle, but were quickly bid as yields spiked and risk got sold heavily. The neckline (90.75) acted as resistance this morning, with the 50 day MA (90.37), now acting as support. If we get a continuation of yesterday's selling, we may see a dollar breakout back near the early February highs around 91.50. On SPY, we have heavy resistance overhead with the lower band of the green ascending channel standing in the way of the bulls, as well as the 21 day EMA at 386.38. Major support sitting at the 50 day MA (379.50), which we've yet to retest this month. On the hourly, we have resistance at the 200MA just overhead, around 384.90. As we speak, we're seeing bullish price action and appear poised to test resistance levels on the open. Finally, on the data front, we saw Personal Income rise 10% vs 9.7% expected, and Personal Spending coming in at 2.4% vs 2.3% expected. PCE and core PCE both came in at 0.3%, vs prior prints of 0.4% and 0.3% respectvely. The trade balance stayed consistent at -$83.7B vs the previous print of -$83.2B. Retail Inventories fell slightly by -0.6% vs the prior print of 1.9%, with wholesale Inventories rising by 1.3% vs 0.5% prior. Chicago PMI is out at 9:45AM, with consumer sentiment out at 10AM. Best of luck out there today, my friends! You guys know where to find our live daily analysis. Cheers, Michael. *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
6
Are we Finally About to See a (Real) Correction?Well, well, well. The 10Y yield clipped 1.466% on Thursday morning, after spiking yesterday to 1.39%. As a reminder, according to Nomura, the 1.50% level is a CTA short trigger level, and could have a major negative impact on equity prices if breached. On top of that, we have several investment banks watching the 2% level, where, Morgan Stanley in particular, sees upwards of a 22% correction possible on the Nasdaq. We're seeing strong flows into Financials off the back of the recent bond market weakness, as well as notable strength in Energy, off the back of higher crude prices. We just saw initial claims come in at 730k vs the 820k estimate. Continuing claims hit 4.41 million, vs the prior print of 4.52 million. Durable Goods came in at 3.4% vs the 1.2% expected, with ex-transportation at 1.4% vs the expected 0.6%. Finally, Q4 GDP came in at 4.1% as expected. Pending home sales figures are out at 10AM. For those of you who missed the GME, and other "most shorted stocks" explosion of up to 300%+ yesterday, like me, just remember that what goes up, must come down, and there are many ways to profit from this type of volatility. One thing I wouldn't want to be, at any point, is long GME, or AMC. Futures are trading in the red this morning, with the S&P down around 0.40%, the Russell flat, and the Nasdaq down around 1%. No real surprises to write home about after yesterday's garbage rhetoric from Powell, who mentioned as many times as possible (in my words), that the Fed's favorite game to play is to spoon feed Wall Street, while Main Street learns to wipe their asses with the US Dollar. With Vix back at nose bleed levels this morning (22.50), and stocks back near ATH's, it's time to reassess the outlook for the next 12 months, minimum. Imagine subscribing to the current level of implied equity risk, with next to no return as the likely reward. What's the best reason to be long equities right now? Inflation? Economic recovery? Vaccines? Hope? It sure isn't for the potential upside, or attractive risk/reward. Maybe notwithstanding the rise in yields, most traders still think NIRP is on the way. We'll find out soon enough, I guess. Re my positions: Although my UVXY position is down around 25% at the moment, I'd still rather hold Vix, than be long equities or cash. With the upside in Vix near infinity, and the downside limited with lingering uncertainty, Vix is by far my favorite play right now. Call me crazy... *I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
40
UVXY: Timing the SpikeSince the market seems to be making considerably newer highs weekly, investors are starting to look into options for hedging their current positions and UVXY seems to be the place many eyes have landed. Though this volatility index is a depreciating asset purchasing shares of UVXY in a time when a correction may be imminent can lead to potentially exponential gains once said correction happens. Though this is an extremely risky strategy, I believe that paying and attention to the MMTW (Percent of stocks above the 20-period moving average) and MMTH (Percent of stocks above the 200-period moving average) indexes can help provide traders and investors with insight as to when the appropriate time to hedge with UVXY are present. As you can see on the chart, A spike in UVXY is almost always consistent with the crossing down of the MMTW below the 50% line - The strength of the move can be observed by also watching the MMTH index and paying attention to it's 50% line as well. If one has a larger risk appetite, purchasing UVXY when the MMTW crosses below the 60% point could place the trader in a good position to profit in the short term trade. Since the strategy of shorting volatility is is a pretty widely known and a profitable one, most of these trades have the lifespan of a mayfly and should be closed quickly unless confirmation of the marketwide downward trend is seen on the MMTH index. If the direction of the market is not confirmed or the UVXY rally is rejected, taking the countertrade (short UVXY) could also see nice returns if held for a significant period of time (see: depreciating asset) These are not trading strategies for the faint of heart so best to plan accordingly based on risk appetite. Marking this once as Neutral since it can be approached from both sides but I may very well be longing UVXY once the 50% line is tested
CBOE:UVXY
by myceliium
12
Buy $UVXY - NRPicks Feb 14$UVXY is an index that seeks to offer exposure to market volatility through publicly traded futures markets and is designed to measure the implied volatility of the S&P 500 for 30 days in the future. Volatility in the last few weeks has been declining, $VIX comes from a drop of around 40% since January, so the main indices recorded all time highs during the week and if we add to that the euphoria unseeded by WSB in sectors such as the cannabis companies, it is logical to expect a correction. The Index during the week lost a key level of 10 for the first time in history which could mean a strong rebound in the short term. Technical: 13% below your MA50 Below-average RSI levels - oversold
CBOE:UVXYLong
by NewroadTrader
US Markets Lose Footing on WednesdayUS markets saw some light chop in the overnight session, with the Dow and S&P trading relatively flat from yesterday's close, and the Nasdaq, and Russell, trading down around 0.30%. The US 10Y yield continued it's rally toward the 100MA (w), with a print of 1.331% before cooling off toward the 1.31% level. The 2s10s spread is now the widest in almost 3 years. As we discussed yesterday, whether we're about to see diminishing demand, or a notable increase in supply for long dated treasuries, it's important to keep an eye on the long end of the curve for hints of a potential market correction. Markets are ripe for a 15 - 20% correction, so trade with caution. We should be getting some insights from the FOMC minutes later on today on the future outlook of the economy, and current policy stance. It's unlikely we see much of a change in the outlook, but slowly we'll begin to hear mention of YCC, and potentially the impact that rates could have on borrowing/ near term market performance. According to Arne Petimezas, analyst for AFS Amsterdam, "Regarding the bond market sell-off, things are finally starting to get serious as real yields are on the rise, driven by bets of central banks tightening sooner than previously expected.” Things could get very interesting if the 10Y yield hits 1.50%. In crypto, Bitcoin continues it's march higher, with a $51k handle now under it's belt. We're not seeing anything unusual in the latest crypto rally, because essentially the higher the implied beta of the security, the better it seems to do in this new "risk free" market. In metals, Gold, Silver, and Platinum, all receded, with Platinum seeing the largest pull back of 2.25%. We're now looking at $1250/oz. Finally, on the data front, Retail Sales came in hot, and surged 5.3% vs 1.1% expected, leading to the highest YOY rise since 2011. Core retail sales rose by a whopping 11.8% YOY, which according to Zero Hedge, is the biggest rise in history. Hey, I guess when money is free, people spend it. Producer prices are soaring with PPI and Core PPI coming hot at 1.3% vs 0.5%exp, and 1.2% vs 0.2%, respectively. Markets don't look happy... Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis. Head on over to www.hedgeoftheworld.com for our live analysis to begin shortly. Cheers! Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
14
Stunning! 1.34% is the Next StopBack on Dec 1 when we initially discussed the possibility that the bond market was poised for a correction/crash, we didnt anticipate this as a stairs up move with the 10Y on the verge of breaking .90% and approaching the 1% mark. However, the rise since August has been persistent, and we're now approaching the 100MA (w) around 1.34%. When credit markets do break, the move to 1.5% is going to be a quick one. Equity markets aren't going to be happy...
TVC:US10YLong
by Hedge_Of_The_World
4
12 Days of Gains, It's Like Christmas!Global markets are simply unstoppable at the moment. According to Zero Hedge, the MSCI World index just saw it's longest winning streak in 17 years, having risen for the past 12 days in a row. Jerry must be dancing naked in front of the mirror every morning without fail. What a clown. The US majors were up around half a percent on Tuesday morning, with the scent of optimism in the air, and with the hint of more free money on the horizon, retail investors are straight up sativa high. The 10Y yield continues to march higher, and the FED now has a serious problem on it's hands. Will we see YCC as soon as this month? We kissed a 1.26% handle earlier in the session, and the long end of the curve is now clearly on the run. The 30Y yield hit a new 12 month high of 2.078%, and has broken through the 100MA (w) at 1.94%. If the 30 runs to the 200MA (w), we'll be looking at a yield of just under 2.5%. That's a game changer imo. The US dollar (DXY) is seeing some notable action, we're up from 90.13 and now sitting around 90.55. The neckline is sitting just above us around 90.75. The Vix is catching some much needed support around the post March crash low's. We're poised to open around 21.50, after hitting a low of 20 on Friday. When this beast really wakes up, we'll be looking at a 40 handle before we can blink. I'm definitely sticking around for the show. On another note, in crypto, Bitcoin hit a new ATH above 50k. Wowzers. Crypto anyone? On SPY, we're set to open around 394, with the upper band of the channel acting as resistance (even though we may gap above on the open). We have the 21EMA (h) just below the channel band at 390.50, then the 21EMA (d) at 383.67. We're looking at a daily RSI of 66, and an hourly RSI of 67. There's definitely room to run if the bulls so choose, but the reality is we're in the stratosphere, where next to no one is participating. The oxygen levels are low, and the bulls are high as a kite. The name of the game right now is patience. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis. Stick around for our live analysis to begin shortly. Cheers! Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
5
11 Days of Gains? What Planet...Global markets continue to march higher, as every last short position in the world of trading is squeezed to death in seemingly coordinated fashion. While large HF's continue to frontrun retail orderflow, they'll continue to know exactly what retail traders are doing at every moment, and how to take full advantage on the way up, and on the way down with their close proximity to the exchanges, and their HFT algos. Where are the regulators you ask? We'll have to see how much of what's really going on is even discussed in the financial media, or in congress over the next couple weeks. I imagine they'll all act like it had nothing to do with market makers, or frontrunning at all. Maybe they'll even blame the retail traders to protect Wall Street. It's amazing what politicians will do to protect their wealthy donors. As the US majors hit new ATH's, yields continue to rise. The 10Y yield hit a new 11 month high at 1.218% today, and we're looking poised to test the 100MA (w), sitting at 1.355%, as early as this week. As the risk free rate approaches the 2% level, we'll begin to see notable pressure on equity prices according to Morgan Stanley, with the Nasdaq at risk of a 22% correction, and the S&P at risk of an 18% correction. This report was a couple months ago, so I imagine the downside has increased since then, as we're now at new ATH's. It seems like markets will never crash, but that's simply not the case. Markets will correct, and maybe even crash. When it happens I won't say I told you so, but I also won't be remotely surprised. What I'll be doing is holding a fat cheque. The Vix is testing the post March low again, and we're looking at a sub 20's open for the first time since November, when we had that relentless short squeeze bonanza/gap parade. I recently read that long positioning in the Vix is currently in the 95th percentile, while short positioning is back to pre-march crash levels. It's no secret that HF's and the Fed themselves are short Vix. Jerome Powell himself said in 2012, that the Fed has a short position in Vix. So when we feel like we're directly fighting the Fed and market makers when we go long Vix, it's because we are. I'm still holding all of my positions, and have no intention of closing them anytime soon for those who might be wondering. If we see further weakness in the Vix, my strategy is to day trade leveraged longs with tight stops, to cushion my premiums. You guys will be the first to know how and when I begin to work my position. It's Family Day up here in Ontario, so I'll be running some errands, and continuing the weekend festivities with my wife and cats. I'll be back tomorrow with my usual live analysis. Good luck out there today, my friends! Cheers, Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
TVC:US10YShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
5
Global Markets See Eight Straight Days of GainsAfter an ugly close yesterday, the US majors are rebounding with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq, all up around 0.50%, and the Russell up 0.80% on Wednesday morning. European markets are essentially flat, with Asian markets catching a bid. The Hang Seng was up by as much as 2% at 8:45AM. Consumer Inflation data came in moments ago; CPI came in lower than anticipated at 0.3% vs 0.4% expected, with Core CPI coming in flat vs 0.2% expected. With CPI finally showing some signs of life, maybe the Fed will consider letting yields rise naturally, so markets can finally correct? Don't hold your breath, folks. Powell is set to speak at 2PM this afternoon, so let's see what he has to say about the "recovering" labour market, and if he mentions rates/the future outlook on the economy. Platinum is is on an absolute tear and is up almost 5% today, tagging a 4th straight day of gains, along with Copper, and Palladium, which are also catching a bid today, and up around 1.75%. Gold is holding onto the week's gains, and is still hovering around 1844/oz. In crypto, Bitcoin is seeing some weakness after tagging a 48k handle yesterday. We're now back at 45,500, with Ether trading at 1732.99, and down around 2% on the day. The Dollar (DXY) is seeing further weakness this morning after falling back to a 90 handle yesterday. We're sitting at 90.30, and holding up well just below the neckline in the IHS pattern. Vix is holding on to a 21 handle for dear life. We're seeing a tight range here near the post March crash lows, and we look poised for another near term spike, when markets finally realize valuations are in outer space. We may be seeing the LOW. In Cannabis, The HMMJ is booming, and is up over 100% since Jan 1. Companies like Aphria, Canopy Growth, and Aurora Cannabis, are seeing massive gains off the back of rolling short squeezes in the highest beta stocks, and optimism over the prospect of near term profitability in the Cannabis sector. With the cost per gram of dry bud falling, and costs of production dropping, Canopy says they may see profit as early as 2022. We all know the Cannabis space is going to be a multi-hundred billion dollar a year industry, and these guys are the main players. There are others, and we'll see a lot of action when the US legalizes, but for now these companies are the main beneficiaries of the recent flows, and are now looking overvalued. The HMJI is one way to profit off an imminent correction as an inverse ETN on the global Cannabis basket. On SPY, we'll be looking at the 21EMA (h) to break (388.74), before we get any notable pull back, with the upper band of the green channel now acting as support around 391. The bulls really don't have any excuses, 400 is right there, and no one is selling. I'd be surprised if we didn't melt up to 400 as early as today. Once we hit that level, though, I expect a massive correction down to the 350 level, and then 323. If this Feb Opex is anything like last years, we're in for one hell of a repricing of risk by month end. February 19th is the day to watch, and the monthly doji preceding last years crash, looks an awful lot like January's doji. Let's see how it plays out. Thanks for your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis. Cheers! Michael. *The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Hedge_Of_The_World
9