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UVXY

VIX vs TLT/LQD suggests bear is near. Back away slowly! VIX has been spiking with TLT/LQD, but the last few times just seemed to help turn it around. Looks similar to the new year, in orange. Volatility has been exploding, per usual. Every 2 years since 2008, Vix has made a new support 3pts higher, shown in solid white. I just read an analyst saying 18 is likely the bottom for some time. TLT/LQD has also been on a years long up trend as well, at a similar pace. So I'm inclined to belief this is a good spot to watch for a long scalp VIX entry, and shorts on the indices.
NASDAQ:TLT
by Nicklaus68
weekly vix headed to oversold test of support (UVXY)this thing has had a killer of a bear week. we saw the signs early last week, and now at the close of this one its pretty obvious that if the .382 of weekly retracement spx holds we are in breakout mode in broader markets. uvxy could bounce in a big way, but the action seems bearish at the time being. the green path is if we tighten in range holding that uptrending support in the early part of next week. the red path is if we breakout in a big way and melt up in the s&p. the week may gap up for vix, in which case im aiming for a sell off in uvxy followed by bounce. if we gap down in vix however im looking for that to get bought up followed by steep decline in the later part of next week. either, or case im aiming for the horizontals on this chart. right now im aiming for the bear over the weekend scenario, and im looking for that mid week bump or gap up in vix while the index is oversold.
CBOE:UVXY
by cerealcharts
1
Shorting UltaShort Proshares. UVXYGoals 17, 15. Invalidation at 26. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe.
CBOE:UVXYShort
by Rykin_Capital
13
EMA Crossover (Not happened since March 2020)Bullish Volatility! 55 EMA has now crossed above the 120. Looking back, this has not occurred since March 4, 2020. The time before that was October 15, 2018!! This is a historically valid pattern. I've been watching this thing for years and now is the time to stack volatility. The Russians are disconnecting from the internet, inflation is only going to get far worse with grain, wheat, and oil prices skyrocketing and the war only increasing. Don't overthink it. Are we entering volatile times? Yes. Is the money printer getting turned off? Yes. Is inflation keeping the Fed from saving things this time?... I can't say they won't try, but I can tell you that they have no control over consumer price inflation like food and gas. Their policies only affect asset prices like houses, stocks, and bonds. They have been able to print money however for the last 13 years because they convinced everyone that they were controlling inflation. No they weren't. The global supply chain and ability to get cheap products in days was what was controlling inflation for the last 20-30 years! WHEN they raise interest rates, it will not lower food inflation because they have nothing to do with each other. The only thing that will help food inflation is a de-escalation in Ukraine. Interest rates effect one's ability to access capital and credit. This ample credit access is not used for food. It's used to buy overpriced real estate and stocks. SO making that access to credit more difficult won't effect food sales, but far moreso house sales.
CBOE:UVXYLong
by MonetaryRebel
1
$VIX to Key Levels, Analysis & targets$VIX to 43 I honestly think that I have charting issues… is this just sexy or what??? Let’s see what happens… GL let me know your thoughts. —————— I am not your financial advisor, but I will happily answer questions and analyze to the best of my ability but ultimately the risk is on you. Check out my ideas, but also do your own due diligence. I have a huge tolerance for volatility so please know that. If you’re new to my trade setups please try them on a small scale first. Then go in with a risk you’re comfortable with. I am not a bull. I am not a bear. I just see what I see in the charts and I don’t pay too much attention to the noise in the news. If you want me to analyze any stock or ETF just leave me a comment and I’ll do it if I can. (If I have time) And most importantly… Have fun, y’all!! (\_/) ( •_•) / >🚀
TVC:VIXLong
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
3
Volatility - UVXYIdea for UVXY: - Mistakenly closed previous position too early, but at least it gives more confirmation in the thesis. - DXY continuing its ascent, causing macro bearishness. - Efforts to break above 200D SMA on SPX continuously rejected. Waited for an SPX below the put wall at 4350 "to be sure". - There is risk in short positions pre-CNY, but there is a Quality stop above 200D on SPX. We already had a bit of a bounce off 500D on Russell, but it is fading. - Federal tax event - liquidity sinkhole Feb 15th. Along with the QE Taper, this should be a systemic liquidity drain. - GDP was a "beat" but the components do not look appealing. GDP Sales (minus inventories) shows far less structural growth than suggested. IMO it is the peak of the business cycle, and earnings will only drop from here, due to hawkish Monetary Policy. - Shadow rates spiking and real rates about to be hiked. - Yield curve inverting. - Volatility begets volatility. Widening ranges suggest further volatility spike to come. In conclusion - worth it to try a long Vol position here and have some conviction (with a reasonable stop-loss). Long UVXY 19C Feb 18 (4.20 debit) GLHF - DPT
CBOE:UVXYLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
2
Guaranteed money (UVXY)If we break to new highs it's almost a guarantee that, provided we are hitting new lows in multiple important sectors like tickers xlf, qqq, spy, we take this over 19. The only real guarantee is that whatever high we hit in UVXY we are seeing lower prices soon. low 14s is where I'm drawing these hypothetical puts expiring a me to.e early March. This is based on the simple fact that indices didn't hold their lows, and there are really two scenarios that can play out: we set some lower low as support and bounce, or we continue lower. If we go lower there's really no support. If we bounce there's really very little resistance. Low availability of shares means we're not headed sideways. This is the bullish picture for uvxy: This is the bearish picture: The forecasts show my limits of how far I would long or short based on a bull/bear move from current levels. The ghost feed is just one solution to how they could both hit. If you get the right signals UVXY is guaranteed money.
CBOE:UVXY
by cerealtrades
Long UVXY and VXX Trading Strategy IdeaThis is for going long UVXY or VXX. I am fine-tuning on systematic approach to trading long volatility. I have back tested the rules below with great results! Please comment and share your thoughts. I traded this several times recently and have done well with it. It is fade-it or half-life approach; decaying position or reverse pyramid, since the underlying is decaying. Take a look at the chart; arrows indicate recent entries AMEX:UVXY . CHART SETUP 195 minute bar chart (split the day into two bars) RSI set to 2 periods MACD - set to 2, 6, 1. (essentially a Moving average cross over) Stochastics Full. 13,3,3 EMA 5 and 8 day EMA. Bollinger bands -standard settings. TTM Squeeze BUY RULES Buy Full position when: - MACD crosses from red to green - above zero line AND - bar close is higher than previous bar AND - Stochastics are trending higher AND - RSI(2) has crossed or is greater than 70 AND - VXX/UVXY price is below the upper bollinger band AND - VXX/UVXY is above the 5 period EMA SELL RULES - 4.1% stop upon entry - sell entire position of MACD 2,6,1 closes red on the day. - sell 50% position on first bar/price trading above the upper bollinger bands - sell 25% of position on second bar/price trading above the upper bollinger bands - sell remaining 25% position upon hard MACD sell signal or discretionary. REPEAT: - repeat and refill full position. For example, if you are down to final 25% position and VXX/UVXY crosses from below to above 5 EMA AND MACD is still green AND price is below upper bollinger band, AND bar close is higher than previous bar close, buy back to full position. Repeat sell rules. Notes: - if you miss a sell signal, sell the bar. for example, VXX traded above the upper BB briefly then below, sell the respective portion of the position. - you may see several trades back to back in high market volatility - I use the TTM Squeeze indicator for direction; histogram trending up? is it green? - This system entry matches up with Heiken Ashi charts buy signals if these are your thing. - the compounding of this strategy works well with 100% re-investment on each trade. - long volatility trades are quick and fade fast. occasionally you will see an extended high volatility; this is the reason the for the 25% last part of the position. (I owned TVIX in Feb 2020 and sold it all once it hit +100%, it went up 11x) - I back tested this to 2016; the results were amazing. in 2021 you had 30 trades, 23 winners, a trade expectancy of 9%, and with 100% re-investment upon every trade, a 783% return if I am doing the math correctly. (rough results below) - other years had better results (2018) but still validating. (2018 returns look ridiculous) - I set buy stops above trading prices at where my signals would be met to automate the entry. - you need some real fortitude as you may take several losses in a row. -4.1, -4.1, -4.1 Again, share your thoughts and comments 2021 UVXY Trades. (Rough backtesting results) starting with 100k hypothetical) Trade Returns trade profit/loss running percentage Running total of capital 6.52% 6,520.00 6.52% $106,520.00 15.56% 16,574.51 23.09% $123,094.51 16.06% 19,768.98 42.86% $142,863.49 -4.10% -5,857.40 37.01% $137,006.09 12.82% 17,564.18 54.57% $154,570.27 14.33% 22,149.92 76.72% $176,720.19 4.00% 7,068.81 83.79% $183,788.99 -2.88% -5,293.12 78.50% $178,495.87 3.66% 6,532.95 85.03% $185,028.82 2.80% 5,180.81 90.21% $190,209.63 -4.10% -7,798.59 82.41% $182,411.03 16.76% 30,572.09 112.98% $212,983.12 -4.10% -8,732.31 104.25% $204,250.81 3.66% 7,475.58 111.73% $211,726.39 12.02% 25,449.51 137.18% $237,175.91 10.66% 25,282.95 162.46% $262,458.86 22.19% 58,239.62 220.70% $320,698.48 17.91% 57,437.10 278.14% $378,135.58 -1.05% -3,970.42 274.17% $374,165.15 6.14% 22,973.74 297.14% $397,138.89 -4.10% -16,282.69 280.86% $380,856.20 22.23% 84,664.33 365.52% $465,520.53 6.22% 28,955.38 394.48% $494,475.91 6.73% 33,278.23 427.75% $527,754.14 8.80% 46,442.36 465.40% $574,196.50 11.67% 67,008.73 519.71% $641,205.23 11.23% 72,007.35 578.07% $713,212.58 10.69% 76,242.42 639.87% $789,455.00 -4.10% -32,367.66 613.63% $757,087.35 16.14% 122,193.90 712.67% $879,281.25
CBOE:VXXLong
by UnderwearMillionaire
$UVXY market hedge*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks* *My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences* *Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management You NEVER want to see the market rally in a bearish market right before an important CPI inflation report. A lot of stocks are looking bullish right now, but sentiment could flip quickly tomorrow. My team will be using $UVXY as a market hedge. We entered in premarket at $12.60. Our take profit is yet to be determined but our stop loss is set at $11.50 ENTRY: $12.60 STOP LOSS: $11.50 If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
CBOE:UVXYLong
by SimplyShowMeTheMoney
13
SPY - VIX VolatilityHi, Here is my art project that illustrates a few harmonic patterns that has strong influence over our current motions, as suggested by the similarity in spacial orientation of the arguments within the support & resistance planes, indicated by solid & dotted lines. The PURPLE trace shows nicely the behavior if this is a mid level bullish argument. The projection is from our previous increase in volatility, as shown by the purple trace. It is scaled to the most recent major move within the argument, and also with an eye toward the forward looking movements with int eh S&R planes. The ORANGE is of course a significant bearish influence, again scaled to oscillate naturally between the planes. Now. . .. . a more exciting idea to explore... we all know that once the SPX starts poppin' through support levels, it can get real rowdy... just like poppin' bottle at Elleven. enter the PINK and BLUE traces. These are from the same previous growth cycle, but scaled so that the next order of magnitude smaller harmonic pattern aligns with our current larger time frame harmonic pattern. This is how exponential growth happens. My favorite subject ! . .. . and yours too i hope. .. . . Things get a bit hectic on the chart at the 30 minute candle (minimum time frame to publish, but the 9 minute is my favorite. . . . . so i threw in some level indicators, on the tops & bottoms of the forecast. Good Luck, God Speed, Love & Light! p.s. . . .. . if you like this idea, follow me, and there is a reasonable chance i will update it next week as we get back into the action.
CBOE:UVXY
by DHLawrence