VIX: VOLATILITY CYCLES / PREDICTION / EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGEDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a SEMI-MACRO analysis of VIX. I have decided to reduce the number of BARS that it will take for the Volatility Index to see its next price action cycle with past cycles lasting up too 250, 300, or 375 BARS to complete. With current price action trajectory and support it appears 250 BARS would be the most suitable span of time for this current cycle to complete.
POINTS:
1. Deviation of 7 Points Remains the same for SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT.
2. 8 YEAR UPTREND Line has nearly made contact & is indicative of VIX seeing a rubber band reaction to the upside.
3. Current DOWNTREND pattern is being squeezed against 8 year trend.
IMO: If price action sees a break to the upside past 21.50 it will be a sure enough bet that VIX will then be looking for 26 Points.
EMA'S: PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO TIGHT MOMENTUM OF ALL THREE EMA'S (45,100,200) WHICH USUALLY INDICATIVE OF UPCOMING SHIFT IN TREND.
RSI: In regard to RSI crucial pivot point levels are mapped by using past positions held by RSI when VIX would eventually bottom out.
MACD: The VIX and MACD share a parallel relationship in the way that as soon as MACD touches MEDIAN and switches directions price action on VIX will come to see a shift in momentum. Currently MACD is in negative territory but should be another solid indicator for when VIX is ready to rubber band to the upside.
SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario price action continues to be supported by threshold at 19 & by March 8th it would be inevitable for PRICE ACTION to not be carried TO THE UPSIDE by the 45 EMA with current TRAJECTORY if SUPPORT OF 19 HOLDS.
SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario this setup would become invalidated if price action is to BREAK TO THE DOWNSIDE past the 19 SUPPORT LEVEL. And would depend on a future hold of of at least 16.80 to be held in order to respect 8 YEAR UPTREND.
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TVC:VIX
