return to support during uptrend presents a cheap entry 1->3 : push up marking 2
as proven buyers
3->4 : return to proven buyers
next?
* hidden bull divergence
* behind vpoc 1->3 swing(s)
*uptrend continuation
*bullish bar entry at support
*zone trading 75% probability follow through to profit, though the invalid is below our stop as the zones are too big to align stop with zone stop also
Wave Analysis
XAUUSD Intraday Technical Analysis – September 5, 2025Gold (XAUUSD) is currently consolidating around 3,551 USD/oz after a strong bullish impulse earlier in the week. The H1 chart shows clear structure respecting Fibonacci retracements, EMA zones, and trendline confluence.
Price Action & Structure
After a breakout and BOS (Break of Structure) to the upside, price is moving within a corrective ABC pattern.
Wave (A) formed a push up, (B) corrected down toward EMA support, and (C) is expected to test the resistance zone 3,565 – 3,580 USD.
The shaded purple box above represents a liquidity zone / weak high, where a potential rejection can occur.
EMA & Trendline Confluence
Price is currently supported by the EMA cluster (20 – 50 – 100) around 3,542 – 3,550 USD.
The ascending blue trendline is holding as dynamic support – a break below it may trigger deeper retracement toward 3,518 – 3,503 USD.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance: 3,567 – 3,580 (weak high liquidity zone)
Next Resistance: 3,600 psychological level
Immediate Support: 3,542 – 3,550 (EMA confluence)
Deeper Support: 3,518 – 3,503 (Fib 50% + EMA 200)
Major Support: 3,476 (demand zone + previous structure)
Trading Strategy
Bullish Scenario:
As long as price holds above 3,542, buyers can aim for 3,567 – 3,580.
Break and close above 3,580 may open the way to 3,600 – 3,615.
Bearish Scenario:
Rejection at 3,567 – 3,580 with bearish confirmation (RSI divergence + bearish engulfing) can trigger a short setup targeting 3,518 – 3,503.
If broken, expect extension toward 3,476.
RSI Outlook
RSI on H1 is cooling off after previous overbought signals, suggesting possible short-term retracement before continuation.
- Summary: Gold is in a short-term bullish corrective move, but upside may be capped at 3,567 – 3,580. Traders should watch for rejection at this zone for potential short setups, while above 3,542 the trend bias remains bullish.
Head and Shoulders PatternLululemon’s chart looks extremely bearish. It’s make or break for this stock. A breakdown of its current support would confirm the break of the neckline in a Head and Shoulders pattern. The 1:1 extension of the move could send the stock price down another 50%, towards $130. Yikes!
The 5 Wave supercycle ended at the Head, around $520. The stock then crashed in an abc correction, rejected at the golden ratio at $420. We are now hanging onto support, $234 is the last hope before potential calamity.
That might seem dramatic but all it would take is for tariffs to eat into the profits and the company will be under significant margin pressure. The technicals and fundamentals don’t look great.
Be careful buying the dip on here. It looks like a falling knife. I’d rather be short, but currently have no position.
Not financial advice, do what’s best for you.
September 4th Gold Intraday Trading Insights and Strategies:
I. Overall Approach
Long-term Trend: The bullish outlook remains unchanged.
Short-term Outlook: Gold prices are at historical highs, with technical indicators showing overbought conditions and a top divergence. Intraday volatility is expected to intensify. In terms of operation, the main idea is to go long at a low level after a pullback, and be cautious when chasing high prices. Aggressive traders may consider shorting at key resistance levels with a small position, maintaining strict stop-loss orders.
II. Key Technical Levels
Support Levels:
Primary Support: $3535-3540 (4-hour support and yesterday's low)
Strong Support: $3525-3535 (deeper pullback support)
Resistance Levels:
Initial Resistance: $3565-3570 (initial resistance during the Asian and European sessions)
Key Resistance: $3578 (near the previous high)
Upside Target: $3590-3600
III. Specific Trading Strategies
1. Long Strategy (Main Strategy)
Ideal Long Level: $3535-3540. Enter after stabilization with a stop-loss below $3525, targeting $3570-3578. After a breakout, hold further to $3590-3600.
Radical entry point: around $3550-3555 (hourly support). Try with a small position, set a stop-loss below $3540, and the same target as above. Conservative Strategy: Patiently wait for the price to fall back to the strong support area of $3525-3535 before going long. Set a stop-loss below $3510 and target $3560-3580.
2. Short Strategy (Secondary Strategy, for aggressive short-term trading only)
Entry Timing: If gold rebounds to the $3565-3570 area and shows clear resistance signals (such as a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern or a long upper shadow), or fails to break through the previous high of $3578, a small position can be used to try shorting.
Stop-loss: Above $3585.
Target: $3540-3550.
IV. Core Risks and Position Management
Data Risk: Today will see the release of the US ADP employment data ("small non-farm payroll") and initial jobless claims data. These data will be important foreshadowing tomorrow's non-farm payroll report and could trigger significant market volatility.
Trading Recommendation: Reduce positions or exit the market 1-2 hours before the data release. If you hold a position, you must set a loose stop loss to deal with sudden fluctuations.
Technical Risks: The RSI on the daily chart is in overbought territory, and the 4-hour chart is at risk of forming a top divergence, increasing the probability of a short-term technical correction. Avoid excessive buying after consecutive upward moves.
Position management: Intraday trading positions should not be too heavy, ensuring that single losses are controlled within 1%-2% of total funds.
GOLD → ATH retest before NFP. High risk level...FX:XAUUSD remains in a bullish trend, but short-term dynamics depend on NFP. A break above $3578 will open the way to new highs, but profit-taking at record levels could increase volatility.
Gold remains strong ahead of US NFP data, which may confirm the Fed's policy easing. Weak data (forecast: +75K new jobs) will reinforce expectations of a rate cut and support gold. However, the risk of a correction is quite high, and any nuances could trigger liquidation. Weak employment data, namely rising unemployment and low ADP figures, are strengthening bets on a Fed rate cut, which overall only increases interest in the metal.
Resistance levels: 3564.5, 3578.5
Support levels: 3545.9, 3526, 3508
NFP data will determine the short-term trend. A weak report will lead to growth to $3600+, while a strong report will lead to a correction to 3450-3400. Technically, I expect a correction after the local bullish structure breaks down. It is not worth trading on the news; it is better to wait 20-40 minutes after the release to make decisions based on fundamental data.
Best regards, R. Linda!
NZDCAD – Range Resistance in Play!📌 NZDCAD has been moving within a clear range structure between support and resistance zones on the 1H timeframe.
Price is now approaching the upper resistance area, where sellers have consistently stepped in to cap bullish momentum.
If this level holds, we could see a bearish reversal, driving price back toward the support zone near the lower boundary of the range.
This setup offers a classic opportunity to trade the swing from resistance back into support.
⚠️ Always remember: patience pays. Let the market come to you.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
GER40: Technical OverviewGER40: Technical Overview
GER40 broke out and is still holding above the support zone near 23,700 indicating for a bullish momentum that is growing further.
GER40 remains in a long-term uptrend.
Resistance Levels:
24040
24240.0
Support Zone around 23,700 is a key pivot area.
If price breaks below the pattern, we could see a pullback toward 23,400, which was last month’s low. But if momentum holds, the upside targets remain valid.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
The Secret Formula: Time + Structure = 80% Win Rate!Hello everyone,
If you’re struggling to combine Time (multi-timeframe analysis) and Structure (market framework) to build a solid foundation for predicting what’s likely to happen in the market, this post will reveal the secret many professionals use — with up to 80% win probability!
1. The Core Mindset – Time & Structure
Every timeframe speaks a different language:
- H4, D1 = the bigger picture (overall trend).
- M15, M5, M1 = the micro view (entry signals, internal flow).
The key is: never rely on one timeframe alone – always align them.
2. POI – Points of Interest
- Each timeframe has its own POI (Points of Interest).
- Example: When you find a POI on H4 , don’t rush in.
Zoom into M15 or M5 to see what’s happening inside that zone.
3. Multi-Timeframe Alignment – The Smart Money Way
For example:
- H4: Price taps into a demand zone.
- M15: Structure shifts from bearish → bullish inside that demand zone.
This means H4 is preparing for a rally, and M15 confirms your BUY entry with higher precision.
When multiple timeframes align in the same direction, your probability skyrockets.
4. Why Always Respect the Bigger Picture?
- LTF (Lower Timeframe) = just noise or details.
- HTF (Higher Timeframe) = the real storyline.
If M15 shows a BUY but H4 is strongly bearish, you’re fighting the market.
But if M15 and H4 point the same way , you have a High Probability Setup .
5. Keys to High-Probability Trading
Identify the higher timeframe trend (H4, D1).
Mark strong POIs.
Drop to lower timeframes (M15, M5, M1) to watch for structure shifts.
Only trade when Time & Structure are aligned.
Always manage risk – place SL beyond OB/POI zones.
6. Final Takeaway
High-probability trades appear when multiple timeframes confirm the same direction.
Don’t trade on gut feeling — let Time + Structure guide you, just like Smart Money does.
Gold Technical Analysis – The Pullback DeepensHi everyone, let’s take a closer look at XAUUSD today!
Gold is still trading inside a broad upward channel, but momentum has slowed and the market is now in a corrective phase. After a strong rally, the pullback looks natural — with eyes on the 3,500 zone, where multiple supports converge: horizontal, trendline, and the 0.618 Fibonacci level.
This area is the real battleground. Hold the line, and buyers may step back in with force. Lose it, and the bullish structure breaks, paving the way for a deeper decline.
Stay sharp, validate your setups, and keep risk under control.
Good luck out there!
Us30 sell Trade Setup Observed
Entry: Around 45,609 (current price zone).
Stop Loss (SL): 45,659 (≈ 50 points above entry).
Take Profit (TP): Significantly lower, around 45,300 (green zone).
Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.12 → This is a good ratio (favorable reward relative to risk).
Position Size: Qty 2.
---
📊 Price Action
1. Strong Upward Impulse: Prior to your trade, the market had a strong bullish rally (large green candles).
2. Consolidation Phase: After the rally, price is ranging in a tight band (sideways movement), marked by small alternating candles.
3.Manipulation is over and distribution si about to start
Bitcoin Ahead of The NFP DataBitcoin Ahead of The NFP Data
From our previous analysis, Bitcoin rose from 110300 to 113000 and reached our first target.
Today, the price is hesitant to rise further ahead of the NFP data, but still remains bullish.
I expect a normal correction, but even if it moves a little lower, the bullish momentum should resume again.
Technically, BTC has completed a WXYXZ corrective wave and is now resuming its dominant trend.
Key resistance zones to watch:
113,200
117,000
123,000 — a major target if momentum continues.
You may watch the analysis for further details!
Thank you!
Silver Unfolds A New Impulse Within 5th WaveSilver is moving higher as expected, pushing even beyond 39, but since the market also broke to new highs, it’s clear that higher degree wave four is finished as a flat correction back at 36.20, so be aware of even further continuation higher into wave five while makret trades above 39. We need five subwaves now in this blue wave 5 cycle, so more gains can follow after some intraday setbacks. But keep in mind that we are in the final leg of the higher-degree fifth wave impulse that could come to an end around 42/43 this year.
BTC: 112,681 in sight, 115.3k if breakout holds__________________________________________________________________________________
Market Overview
__________________________________________________________________________________
BTC bounced back above the weekly pivot 111,965 after a dip below 110k and is hovering near 112.2k, still trapped inside the 104k–116k corridor. Short-term momentum is positive but capped by a 4H/6H “Pivot High.”
Momentum: Bullish 📈 in the short term within a broader range; buyers defend 111,965 but meet supply at 112,681.
Key levels:
- Resistances (4H/6H → 1D): 112,681 (240 PH), 115,300 (720 PH), 124,277 (D PH, distant extension).
- Supports (4H → 1D): 111,965 (W PH turned support), 109,905 (240 PL), 107,300 (cluster PL).
Volumes: Normal on HTF; notable 1H spike during the recent push.
Multi-timeframe signals: ST (15m–1H) bullish; mid TF (2H–6H) still corrective; HTF (12H–1D) constructive → bias improves if 112,681 flips to support.
Risk On / Risk Off Indicator: VENTE (moderate risk-off) — it contradicts the intraday bounce and can cap extensions without a catalyst.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Trading Playbook
__________________________________________________________________________________
The market is a “range with a bullish lean”: trade conditional entries, confirm breakouts, and keep stops tight.
Global bias: Neutral Buy with key invalidation below 109,900 (loss of the 240 PL base).
Opportunities:
- Continuation long: break & retest of 112,681 to target 114.0k then 115.3k.
- Defensive long: clean pullback holding 111,965 (1H higher low) to re-test 112,681.
- Tactical short: clear rejection at 112.68–113.0k (bearish 4H candle) to 112.0k then 111.0k/109.9k.
Risk zones / invalidations:
- 4H–12H close below 111,965 reopens 110k then 109.9k.
- A reclaim above 115,300 invalidates the mid‑TF bearish structure and unlocks 120–124k.
Macro catalysts (Twitter, Perplexity, news):
- FOMC: September remains “live”; a cut is increasingly priced — supportive for risk if confirmed.
- NFP/Unemployment: a soft print would fuel risk-on and breakout follow‑throughs.
- Crypto liquidity: fresh $2B USDT mint + cross‑chain reallocations — deeper books if 112,681 breaks.
Action plan:
- Long (break & retest 112,681): Entry 112.70–112.85k / Stop <111.90k / TP1 114.0k, TP2 115.3k, TP3 120.0k / R:R ~1.8R to 3R.
- Short (rejection 112.68–113.0k): Entry 112.7–112.9k / Stop >113.1k / TP1 112.0k, TP2 111.0k, TP3 109.9k / R:R ~1.2R to 2.5R.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Multi-Timeframe Insights
__________________________________________________________________________________
This is a “range‑recovery” alignment: ST drives, mid TFs resist, HTFs remain supportive.
1D/12H: Constructive above 111,965; a clean move through 112,681 sets up a test of 115,300 (major range ceiling).
6H/4H/2H: Still printing a “lower high” under 115.3k; 112,681 is the rotation hinge — rejections = 112.0k/111,965 retests.
1H/30m/15m: Bullish momentum with elevated 1H volumes; needs solid close/retest above 112,681 to avoid a fakeout.
Key divergences/confluences: ST strength + HTF support vs Risk On / Risk Off Indicator in VENTE and mid‑TF corrective tone → prioritize confirmed flips at 112,681.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro & On-Chain Drivers
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macro is leaning toward monetary easing while stablecoin liquidity expands — a supportive backdrop if technical levels confirm.
Macro events: Fed keeps September “live” with a cut increasingly priced; a soft NFP would add risk-on fuel; oil softens and gold appetite stays firm — near‑term inflation pressure eases.
Bitcoin analysis: Price ~111.5–112k with short‑squeeze risk if momentum continues; BTC spot ETF flows remain flat vs improving ETH — implying measured BTC spot demand but reactive to technical breaks.
On-chain data: +$2B USDT minted and cross‑chain shifts → deeper market depth; URPD/accumulation in 108–116k matches the range; neutral funding = fragile momentum.
Expected impact: A dovish follow‑through (cut pricing + soft jobs) supports the “Neutral Buy” toward 115.3k; risk‑off shocks would pressure 111,965/109,9k.
__________________________________________________________________________________
Key Takeaways
__________________________________________________________________________________
Range market with a recovery bias as long as 111,965 holds and 112,681 turns into support.
- Overall trend: short‑term bullish/neutral inside the 104k–116k range.
- Most relevant setup: confirmed breakout above 112,681 targeting 115.3k.
- One key macro factor: growing odds of a September Fed cut boost risk appetite.
Stay disciplined: trade confirmation, not anticipation, and respect stops. ⚠️
Is it Asana 2.0?- Similar to NYSE:ASAN , NYSE:FIG has a good product, customer friendly, good UI/UX, easy to use.
- Valuation is out whack because IPO frenzy
- Things I like is their growth which 40%+ yoy but my concern is that the technical addressable market isn't huge for design space in general.
- Their are three broad archetype of users:
1. Who doesn't know design at all (majority) : these people use Canva or AI tool for quick designs and ideally these people want free tool.
2. Freelancers to Early professionals: This is the figma's core base where low learning curve help these customers to get started early and prototype faster.
3. Mid career professionals: These folks are open to using new tools if it makes their life easier.
4. Hardcore professionals with years of experience : This segment want heavy editing capability and are mostly NASDAQ:ADBE hardcore users. They know ins and out of NASDAQ:ADBE suite. They might not easily switch to NYSE:FIG because NYSE:FIG feature capability isn't extensive enough what a full blown NASDAQ:ADBE product offers.
NYSE:FIG has strong foothold in type 1-3 is going after type 4. But my concern is even if I combine all the types market isn't large enough as the majority ( say noobs ) will always prefer a free tool and ideally some sort of AI generated edits
XAUUSD Analysis - FSX🔍 1. Technical Analysis (5-Minute Chart Review)
Price Structure
Price is currently at $3,549.71, having bounced twice off the $3,545.40 support and lower $3,542.26 support.
We're seeing short-term bullish rejection wicks near those support levels, suggesting buying interest.
Trend
On this intraday (5-min) chart: The market made a lower high and lower low, indicating a short-term downtrend, but this is being tested.
There's a potential reversal pattern forming (double bottom or inverse head-and-shoulders near $3,542 area).
Key Levels
Support:
$3,545.40 → Recent double rejection, acting as short-term support
$3,542.26 → Stronger horizontal support, tested multiple times
Resistance:
$3,551.30–$3,552.00 → Immediate resistance (previous lower high)
$3,557.00–$3,560.00 → Major intraday resistance (top before breakdown)
Indicators (Implied)
You have the "Buffett-Ackman RSI Support/Resistance Strategy" on — not shown directly, but the levels drawn seem to support RSI-based oversold zones near support.
Short-term candles are shrinking in body with long wicks → sign of buyer absorption of selling pressure.
🌐 2. Fundamental Analysis (As of Sept 5, 2025)
Macro Backdrop
USD Strength: Likely remains strong due to higher interest rates by the Fed (continuing 2024 tightening).
Inflation: If inflation remains sticky, it supports USD but also Gold due to its inflation hedge.
Geo-Political Risks: Any tensions (Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan) can spike gold as a safe haven.
Bond Yields: Rising yields pressure Gold due to opportunity cost of holding it. If yields cool, gold rallies.
Upcoming Events to Watch
US NFP (Jobs Data): If weak, USD drops and Gold may pump.
Fed Commentary: If dovish, bullish for gold.
CPI or PCE Inflation Data: Any downside surprise could trigger upside in Gold.
✅ 3. Trade Plan (Pro Setup)
🟢 Trade Idea: Long (Buy) XAUUSD – Countertrend Intraday Reversal
Entry: $3,546.00 (Buy limit just above the strong support zone)
Stop Loss: $3,540.50 (Below key swing low and liquidity zone)
Take Profit 1: $3,552.00 (Intraday resistance)
Take Profit 2: $3,557.00 (Key structure resistance)
Risk/Reward: ~1:2.5 minimum
🛡️ Reasoning:
Bullish rejection wicks on support zone ($3,542–$3,545)
Possible RSI oversold condition
Double bottom / consolidation = base formation
Risk tightly defined below structure
Fed uncertainty and safe haven bids can cause sudden spikes
⚠️ Alternative Scenario – If It Breaks Down
If $3,542.00 breaks convincingly with volume, then:
Flip bias short
Sell Below: $3,540.00
Target: $3,532.00–$3,528.00
Stop: $3,546.00
Reason: Clear breakdown of structure with liquidity hunt done
EURGBP → The battle for zone 0.867. What are the prospects?FX:EURGBP is attempting to remain above 1/2 of the key trading range as part of a retest after breaking through strong resistance. The local trend is bullish, and the price has a chance to reach 0.8743.
EUR is consolidating in a wedge pattern, with the price moving away from support and attacking resistance. Against the backdrop of the expected Fed rate cut, EUR may break through the line and begin an active phase of growth, which will support EURGBP. The currency pair's price has moved beyond the lower half of the trading range and is attempting to consolidate above the bullish interest zone. If the bulls hold their defense above 0.866-0.867, the price will have a chance to test the poi
Support levels: 0.867, 0.865, 0.8635
Resistance levels: 0.871, 0.874
Against the backdrop of the news, the price may test the order block in the 0.865 zone. A false breakdown and consolidation of the price above 0.867 will confirm the bulls' intentions, allowing the price to move towards the specified target.
Best regards, R. Linda!