SILVER falling wedge breakoutPlease 1st of all click the boost🚀 button if you want me to post more ideas and follow me to support my work! It's absolutely for free.
XAGUSD backtested twice the previously broken violet downtrendline (zoom out) and it held as support. Price recently bounced up and now breaking the falling wedge. If the break is successful then we could see price rising to the resistance @ 26.21.
GOLD/SILVER ratio (see chart below) reached strong resistance and now dropping hard (as predicted) meaning that silver is stronger than gold. This is usually the case in metals bull market, silver is just high beta version of gold (aka gold on steroids).
Are the metals bulls around the corner?
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GOLD/SILVER
Gold - Short paper gold, long physical metalTwo weeks after our last update, we still remain bearish on gold in the short term and expect it to hit 1 600 USD. Our view is based on a combination of fundamental factors like high-interest rates, strong U.S. dollar, and more economic tightening in the foreseeable future. Despite that, we remain bullish on gold in the long term and believe it will provide a great buying opportunity in the coming months. With that being said, we are long physical metal and short paper gold.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and the sloping resistance connecting March 2022 high and April 2022 peak. Yellow arrows indicate bullish breakouts above the resistance and subsequent invalidations.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish as well. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
GOLD🥇 channel breakoutHi folks! Please 1st of all click the boost 🚀 button if you want me to post more ideas and follow me to support my work! It's absolutely for free.
GOLD made new all-time high back in 2020 and then pulled back to 1676 which set the trading range for next year and a half. During that period there was a break of violet downtrendline which was subsequently backtested and provided support several times. Now just recently price tried to break down out of the range but the breakout failed as there was no real follow through and actually after few days GOLD bounced strongly and got back inside the range (above range low). Currently price is just trying to break the yellow downward channel in which price was "locked" from last march. IF it really breaks up, then we could see move to the upper range (2000ish) in next weeks/months.
See my silver analysis which supports this gold thesis:
See my Gold/Silver ratio analysis which supports this gold thesis:
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⚠️Disclaimer: I'm not financial advisor. This is not a financial advice. Do your own due dilingence.
Gold - XAUUSD is about to push above 2 000 USDTechnical and fundamental factors continue to push gold higher. At the moment, it trades around 1 995 USD/oz., just slightly below 2 000 USD price tag. We maintain a bullish stance on gold and we expect it to break above 2 000 USD and continue higher. Our medium-term price target of 2100 USD stays in place. Our long-term price target of 2300 USD also remains active.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bullish. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market with ADX rising. Overall, the daily time frame is very bullish for gold.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bullish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. Meanwhile, ADX shows that the bullish trend of a higher degree continues to strengthen. Overall, the weekly time frame is very bullish for XAUUSD.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Gold - XAUUSD shows more resilience than initially expectedOver the past four months, gold has shown strong resilience. Despite the U.S. interest hike, gold failed to drop substantially. Instead, it moved close to its all-time high value; however, it halted its rise at 2075.63 USD. After that, gold fell below 1900 USD. Although, this drop did not last long, and gold retreated to the 1950 USD price tag a few days later. We remain bullish on XAUUSD, and our medium-term price target of 2100 USD stays in place. Our long-term price target of 2300 USD also remains active.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and MACD are neutral. Stochastic stays bullish, and the same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX declines, suggesting no significant trend is present. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI and Stochastic are neutral. MACD remains bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish too. ADX continues to increase, which suggests the trend of higher degree is bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above shows additional support/resistance levels.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Technical analysis update: Gold (24th January 2022)Gold continues to trade slightly above the key technical level at 1835 USD. We continue to maintain a bullish view on XAUUSD. However, we would like to voice a word of caution as there is a FOMC meeting this week which may present itself with increased volatility in precious metals. Investors will get more clues on upcoming rate hikes and economic tightening which poses threat to the general stock market and cryptocurrencies. However, in turn, we think this is a positive catalyst for the price of gold. There is a very high likelihood of capital getting out of the cryptocurrency sector which is being hammered down by a strong downtrend (and which we predicted already in November 2021). We previously noted that this would cause rotation out of cryptocurrencies into more conservative assets like precious metals. We continue to maintain this same notion even today. Our short-term price target stays at 1850 USD while our medium-term price target is 1875 USD.
Illustration 1.01
Picture above shows the daily chart of XAUUSD with volume indicated by green and red bars below it. Preferably we would like to see further increase in volume which would further boost the bullish case for gold.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD and Stochastic are all bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish too. ADX continues to increase which suggests that the bullish trend has resumed. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
MACD, RSI and Stochastic are all bullish, similarly like on the daily time frame. Same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX continues to undergo reset. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish.
Support and resistance
Neutral zone appears between 1750 USD and 1835 USD which currently act as two very important supports. Closest resistance lies at 1877.14 USD. Another resistance above that is at 1916.615 USD. Major resistance lies at 2075.282 USD.
Please feel free to express your own ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Technical analysis update: XAUUSD (7th December 2021)Gold remains stuck in the neutral zone between 1750 USD and 1835 USD. Its trend continues to be neutral. Several fake breakouts above or below the neutral zone took place, however, a new trend failed to be established. We await the FOMC on 14th and 15th December 2021 as it will provide more insight into FED's next actions. Despite gold's neutral trend we remain bullish on gold in the long-term. Our view is supported by persistent high inflation and other fundamental as well as technical factors.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
Stochastic oscillates in the bearish area. However, it changed its direction to the upside. MACD is bearish, although it started to show first signs of attempting to reverse its direction. RSI is neutral. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions, however, ADX suggests no trend is present. Overall, technical indicators on daily time frame suggest that no trend is prevailing in gold right now. This is reflected in its sideways moving price action.
Rectangle formation:
Rectangle area is shown in yellow background. False breakouts are indicated by white arrows and text.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
Stochastic is bearish. RSI is neutral. MACD appears near 0 points and it needs to be observed closely for potential strength to stay in the bullish area (above 0 points). DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions, however, ADX contains low value which suggests that no trend is present (which coincides with ADX on daily time frame).
Support and resistance
Short-term support is at 1750 USD while short-term resistance is at 1835 USD. Resistance 1 is at 1877 USD, Resistance 2 is at 1916 USD, and Resistance 3 is at 1959 USD. Major resistance level is at 2075 USD while the major support level lies at 1676 USD.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
XAUXAG - Gold/Silver Ratio! XAUXAG - Gold/Silver Ratio!
Question I get asked: Why do you look at the XAU/XAG?
Simple answer: Measuring the strength. Which metal has a greater R/R potential and that's been silver. Now personally I am much more bullish Silver since last yr march, given analysing the market of both gold and silver, which I stated this in my year ahead video outlook for 2021. (Message privately if you'd like access)
I favour Silver for buying opportunities due to adding confluence analysis the XAU/XAG ratio
I do this with currencies (E.g EURGBP), cryptocurrencies (E.g ETCBTC) and many other assets.
Key Tip: The trend is your friend, until it's broken.
Have a great day ahead.
Trade Journal
(For educational purposes, not investment advice)
XAUXAG - Symmetric triangleXAUXAG is consolidating in a symmetric triangle around the 2016-2017 correction zone. The symmetric triangle is a continuation pattern.
When it breaks we are
When it breaks we are going to test 56,8 and later 50,3.
The measured target of the symmetric triangle is around 42.
If gold rallies to 2300-2400$ and the XAUXAG drops to 42 at the same time silver will rally above 50$.
All cycles for gold are up on a weekly basis.To support a strong up move in silver, gold should be performing as well.
Reasons why gold will be performing and could retest August highs on the last week of February, and after making a pull back into early March creating a cup and handle pattern - storm to 2500 by April:
1. During March - November period gold has made a 9 month long picture perfect bull flag. Shows us that the longer term trend is up and buying power is larger than the selling power.
2. All cycles are up and as long as we don't close below 1807 weekly basis - the up move will continue.
3. A move to recent highs at around 2050 (if occurs) will be stopped by the previous support line, a double top against the high and the smallest cycle being down for about one week at that period. Now as I remind you - now cycles are up and unless gold shows weakness closing below 1807 - we are long. To change the monthly trend - gold has to close below 1764 monthly basis.
4. A move to around 2500 will be +37.5% from 1764 - bull flag low and cycle low at that point. Division of the dollar into 8 parts gives us natural points of support and resistance and we use this information to figure out a few facts. Firstly, percentage terms - 37.5% is 3/8 of 100. Meaning that we use the lows and highs - add or subtract - 1/8, 2/8, 3/8 etc. (i.e 12.5%, 25%, 37,5% etc.) and as a result get points where potential resistance/support will be. Secondly, we use the division of the dollar into eighths to get the nominal price resistance, once we go above 1 dollar - natural points of resistance become 1.125, 1.25, 1.375, 1.5, 1.625, 1.75, 1.875, 2, 2.125, 2.25, 2.375, 2.5 (or 2500) . I hope this makes sense and you will try applying this method and prove to yourself that it works in most cases.
5. The pink trend line is the price projection taken at an angle which is = to the angle of the up leg inside the bull flag. To get the date where it will stop the up move we use the information given by cycles and observe that by around mid April where cycles top for some time in both gold and silver the trend line gives a point at around 2500 - natural point of resistance given by the previous rule.
6. Stay tuned for the XAUXAG update where I will combine my price targets for gold and silver and their cycles dates to check if the ratio gives us the same result according to its own cycles and points of resistance.
Please remember futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Perfect double top in Gold on a monthly basis and cycles are up.We have hit a perfect double top in gold futures at 1767.9 (1767.2 first low in Nov) on a monthly time frame. Cycles are up and selling volume is decreasing. As long as gold doesn't close below 1767.2 this week - it is one of the most bullish assets on the planet right now! However, remember to be cautious because futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Looks like silver is about to make a large up move.Silver closed strongly this week, however that is not surprising. All 4 cycles are up - the large cycle, the medium term cycle, the daily cycle and the hourly cycle.
At the same time, silver with about 6 hours left of trading yesterday made a push higher just in tact with the recent trend line and closed back above it on a weekly basis - signalling us to go long. It is very interesting to observe how perfectly trend lines work, pure magic.
As long as we don't get a close below 26.9 - the buy signal remains. I expect silver to reach the 32.5-33.75 trading range by February 23rd, then we could potentially stall out a little bit till cycles bottom early March before the next up leg that will take us to 40 in mid April. Remain tuned for fresh updates. Today I will post several more updates regarding related instruments and prove the fact that silver is about to explode. Remember futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.
Thanks a lot.
Gold/Silver ratio cycles signal an upcoming smoke show in pm's.This is a related idea and I recommend to scan the previous ones at least briefly to understand what I am about to say.
As you can see cycles totally support the bullish market in gold and silver, since silver moves more percentage terms than gold in both directions - the reason why the ratio swings up and down. I expect gold to reach around 2050-2070 and silver 32.5-33.75 by late February-early March - that gives a 61.3-63 target range for the ratio - double bottom and a place where the ratio will bounce causing a short term pull back in the metals. Then mid April - right around the cycle top in gold and silver, the cycle will be bottoming for the ratio. The targets I figured for gold and silver for April are the following ranges: 2450-2520 (Gold) and 42-44 (Silver) - gives a ratio range of 57.3-58.3 - what a coincidence - at that time there will be an upper boundary trend line waiting at this exact point.






















