Gold - Short paper gold, long physical metal

Two weeks after our last update, we still remain bearish on gold in the short term and expect it to hit 1 600 USD. Our view is based on a combination of fundamental factors like high-interest rates, strong U.S. dollar, and more economic tightening in the foreseeable future. Despite that, we remain bullish on gold in the long term and believe it will provide a great buying opportunity in the coming months. With that being said, we are long physical metal and short paper gold.

Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.

Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of XAUUSD and the sloping resistance connecting March 2022 high and April 2022 peak. Yellow arrows indicate bullish breakouts above the resistance and subsequent invalidations.

Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- are bearish as well. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

Trade closed: stop reached:

To our surprise, gold broke to the upside and proved us wrong. We abandon our price target on the downside.