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Bitcoin - A simple long term viewOn the weekly timeframe, select log scale and you'll see a rising channel stretching from 2019 to the present day.
Although Bitcoin closed below it for the past several months, price has now pushed back into the channel.
If it can continue holding weekly closes above the lower boundary, that area should start acting as support again.
One technical reason for the recovery could be the 200W-EMA (0.25sd) band shown in purple, which Bitcoin reacted from before reclaiming the channel.
...So what now?
My personal view is that fundamental macros can continue to support Bitcoin's rise at least into the midterm elections on Nov 3rd.
Why?
The Federal Reserve still has more reason to avoid aggressively hiking rates, while the broader macro backdrop has recently become more supportive for risk assets.
US markets have also historically shown some midterm-election seasonality, where weakness earlier in the year can be followed by stronger performance in Q3 and Q4.
Those effects could spillover in Bitcoin as investors look for higher beta risk-on assets.
Here is my breakdown on the daily timeframe:
The reason why I'm still not ready to call this the beginning of a new Bitcoin cycle is because we don't yet have a major structural change on the daily timeframe.
Even if we do get one, $103K remains a major overhead resistance .
The weekly channel itself also gives some pretty extreme upside levels: roughly $200K at the midline and $600K near the top of the channel .
From current prices, that's roughly a 2.5x and 7.6x increase in Bitcoin's market cap.
At those levels, Bitcoin starts entering the same market-cap conversation as assets like Nvidia and half of the Mag7, all of which are competing for investor capital.
Am I ready to assume it happens within the remaining months of Q4? No.
But can Bitcoin get there in the future? Absolutely.
Trade safe and have a great day.
-Yang
Long 
BTC/USD Tactical LongYearly Open Reclaim Attempt · 2022 Structural Analog · Q2–Q3 Distribution Risk
Confidence on prior setup has turned fleeting..
In prior post-ATH BTC cycles (2018, 2022), price has exhibited strong gravitational pull toward the yearly open before resolving directionally. The 2022 analog is structurally the closest where BTC opened 2022 near $46,000, ran prior monthly highs in January (~$48K), then entered a protracted markdown that was mean reversed entirely by March 28th.
The current setup; open at ~$87K, drawdown to ~$69K, March DST low holding... maps onto the Q1 2022 distribution preamble with notable fidelity.
The current volatility regime is compressive and mean-reverting: the March 17 spike to $75,912 *a six-week high was reversed within hours with no meaningful follow-through in upside call positioning, confirming the move was delta-hedging induced (put unwinds at the $55K–$60K strikes) rather than directionally driven demand. $74,400... a former April 2025 support level, is now acting as structural resistance.
BTC is trading ~21% below its 2026 y/o (~$87,400–$88,700) a level that historically functions as a high-conviction mean-reversion anchor and institutional positioning reference. Near-term structural analog to early-2022 suggests a sweep of prior monthly highs precedes any larger markdown... creating an asymmetric tactical long from current price toward the yearly open zone.
As stated, thesis carries explicit Q2/Q3 distribution risk: if price reaches the yearly open and fails to reclaim it with conviction, the trade converts to a fade setup, consistent with the 2022 playbook's eventual meltdown.
Long and strong in the meantime. Will update then once *if* we climb that wall of worry, GLHF.
UPDATE 2. Bitcoin short squeeze $60k->$110k is even more likely.This is a short-term update on the recent Elliott Wave structure.
There may or may not be a new low within the accumulation, but it's more likely there won't be one and that the impulsive wave has already started.
First off, the slow grind from the bottom toward MA200 W1 suggests supply is already being absorbed — the grind looks exactly like a short squeeze in development. Traders waiting for a pullback or new low that possibly won't happen will add fuel to the rally when they're surprised and forced to cover their positions.
The grind started with impulsive wave (1), followed by a correction in wave (2), and then impulsive wave (3) — which isn't very large, because wave (5) is likely to be the extended one. Price climbed toward MA200 W1 and started consolidating, clearly respecting this level.
The wave structure looks like wave (4), which doesn't look done yet and will likely retest local support at $60,200 without touching the top of wave (1). Wave (4)'s that take a long time and look "heavy" usually act as reaccumulation and prepare the ground for an explosive, extended wave (5).
What should follow is a swift, explosive move toward $84k in wave (5) — likely even by the end of July.
So far, all building blocks confirm my thesis, and the short squeeze might happen very soon. Long 
UPDATE 3. Bitcoin short squeeze $60k->$110k is even more likely.Situation is crystal clear now.
Accumulation is over, and it's unlikely there will be a new low, as price is showing strength and is unable to stay below MA200 W1 level.
Price is making new highs with no large pullbacks, which confirms strength — and this is exactly what should happen once accumulation is done.
The heavy wave (4) mentioned in the previous update is also over, and it did not make the large new low I expected, which is itself a signal of strength.
What I believe is happening right now is an impulsive wave up, with waves (1), (2), (3), and (4) already complete.
Wave (5) should be the extended wave, and within it, waves 1 and 2 are already done.
The short squeeze is happening right now, and wave 3 is likely to reach the $84k area by the end of July. Long 
UPDATE 1. Bitcoin short squeeze $60k->$110k is even more likely.A month ago, I posted my thesis on a Bitcoin short squeeze from $60k to $110k. This thesis is still very much in play — and even more so now, as confirmed by recent price action.
Price has been reacting to MA200 W1 and bouncing around it, with no ability to stay below it for long. From mid-June to mid-July, price action has looked like a textbook Wyckoff accumulation, with a shallow new low showing H4/D1 divergence. After that new low, price has been climbing steadily upward with no sharp moves down — confirming that most of the supply has been absorbed.
There may or may not be additional supply tests, with a possible new low, although more than one new low, or price staying below MA200 W1 for long, is unlikely. In general, accumulation at MA200 W1 is exactly what should happen here, and it confirms my thesis.
Once all supply is absorbed, I expect a very swift and explosive move toward the $84k area — possibly even by the end of July. This is the first step. The next step is $110k, possibly with a pullback in between.
To recap: price continues to respect MA200 W1 as the strongest level on the chart, and the mid-June to mid-July action is textbook accumulation — a shallow new low, bullish divergence, and steady climbing with no sharp drops, confirming supply is being absorbed. This update reinforces the original thesis: a short squeeze first to $84k, then on to $110k.
Long 
Bitcoin short squeeze from $60k to $110k is VERY likely. Part 1.First off, sentiment. Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market in general have been in a boredom/frustration phase. Other than the pullback since October 2025, nothing major has happened — and before that, price had been consolidating around ATH for more than a year. No major news, no significant retail participation, Google Trends at lows. Everyone is focused on AI, semiconductors, and the SpaceX IPO. These are perfect conditions for a major surprise move.
Second, MA200 W1. This is the 200-week Moving Average — a proxy for the 4-year average Bitcoin price. This level determines whether we are in a bull or bear market and is watched by every major investor, including institutions and algorithms.
This is THE most important price level, and price has always reacted very strongly to it. Every major pullback stopped exactly here, and every major bull market started from this level — in 2015, 2018, 2020, and 2022–2023.
It is also very likely that the famous Bitcoin 4-year cycle has nothing to do with the halving, but rather with MA200 W1 itself. When we plot exact halving dates on the chart, bull markets do not correlate precisely with halving dates — and the 2024 halving did not result in any outstanding volatile moves, with price simply drifting upward within an existing bull market. On the other hand, every major bull market correlates with price touching MA200 W1.
This is the strongest price level — much stronger than any other support or resistance. Whatever happens to Bitcoin price, this is the level where major moves develop. Add the current sentiment on top of that, and we are in perfect conditions for volatility.
Bitcoin price currently sits exactly at MA200 W1 for the first time in 3 years, since 2023.
There are two scenarios: either price bottoms here and a new bull market begins, or price breaks down through this level — which would likely trigger a major crash and a cascade of liquidations. However, regardless of which scenario plays out, MA200 W1 is too strong to be broken on the first attempt.
My idea is that before any bear or bull market fully develops, price will bounce off this level toward the first major resistance, which sits around $108k–$110k.
To recap: boredom/frustration sentiment + price at MA200 W1 for the first time in 3 years = conditions ripe for major volatile moves. I believe the move will be to the upside.
This is the first building block of my thesis. I will expand on the remaining blocks in Part 2 and Part 3. Long 
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Bitcoin Insane buying opportunity! In each cycle, #Bitcoin has never fallen below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level (with the exception of the very first cycle). That cycle was unique because Bitcoin had such a small market cap that it traded more like a penny stock or altcoin. In fact, Bitcoin has bottomed at the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level in every cycle since then.
If Bitcoin fails support and moves lower from here, I could see it bottoming around $55,000, or $40,000 at the absolute lowest.
Generational wealth could be created for those who buy the dip here. I believe the mass adoption cycle will follow. Be ready, because Bitcoin could potentially reach $500,000 to $1,000,000 per coin during that cycle.
As always, stay profitable.
– Dalin Anderson Will Bitcoin Hit $35000 Before Next ATH rally Toward $200K?CRYPTOCAP:BTC Update & Analysis
In A Tape Like This, The Edge Isn't In Calling The Bottom, It's In Showing Up Consistently.
A Disciplined DCA Into Weakness Does The Heavy Lifting Most Traders Try To Do With Timing, And Usually Fails At. The Data Is Uncomfortable But Clear: Across Cycles, Patient Accumulators Have Quietly Outperformed The Active Crowd That's Busy Trying To Be Clever.
Could We Trade Below 60K? Sure - That's Well Within Historical Behavior, And Price Often Revisits Zones The Crowd Has Written Off. But Anchoring To An Exact Figure Like 50K Is Where People Get Caught. Markets Don't Owe You A Clean Number. The Moment A Level Becomes Consensus, It Becomes Liquidity And That's Exactly The Price That Gets Run Before The Real Move.
So Don't Marry A Target. Build A Process.
→ Define Your Zones, Not A Single Price
→ Size So A Deeper Flush Is An Opportunity, Not A Problem
→ Let Conviction, Not Adrenaline, Drive The Bid
Simple Beats Clever. Plan Beats Prediction. 🤟
NFA & DYOR Short 
Bitcoin at a macro decision-point – Expansion or deep correctionI called the recent ATH at 124K as the definitive top — many dismissed it as an unpopular opinion, but price action has now clearly validated that view once again. 📉
Analysis:
Bitcoin is now sitting at a major inflection point on the weekly timeframe, and this is not just another routine pullback — this is a high-stakes structural decision zone that will likely dictate the next multi-month (or even multi-year) trend.
After a strong impulsive move into the 100K–120K region, BTC showed clear signs of exhaustion and rejection right into a key Fibonacci extension cluster (between 1.618–2.618). This is historically where smart money begins distributing, and once again, the reaction has been decisive.
Since then, price has entered a corrective phase and is now interacting with:
• Mid-range ascending channel support
• Prior consolidation zones
• A psychologically critical region around 60K–70K
This confluence makes the current zone extremely important.
_____________________
📊 Structure Breakdown:
🔹 Macro Trend: Still bullish (higher highs & higher lows intact)
🔹 Momentum: Weakening after rejection from highs
🔹 Current State: Corrective / transitional phase
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Continuation):
If BTC holds this support zone and begins to show strength:
• Reclaim 80K (key confirmation level)
• Build momentum above prior resistance
• Break back toward 100K–120K
• Continuation toward 150K–177K (higher Fib extensions)
This would indicate the current move is simply a healthy mid-cycle correction before further expansion.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Deeper Correction):
If COINBASE:BTCUSD BTC loses the current support region (70k~60K):
• Breakdown toward 50K (first major support)
• Weak bounces likely
• Potential continuation into 40K zone
• Full macro retest near 30K (major structural support)
A move toward 30K would still be historically consistent within BTC cycles, but it would signal a much longer consolidation/reset phase.
⚖️ The Reality Right Now:
This is a decision point, not a trend.
Both paths are valid — the market is choosing direction right here.
Traders and investors should not be overly biased:
➡️ This is where patience > prediction
➡️ Reaction > assumption
➡️ Structure > emotion
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Support:
• 60K (critical pivot)
• 50K (secondary support)
• 30K (macro line in the sand)
Resistance:
• 80K (reclaim trigger)
• 100K–120K (major supply zone)
• 150K+ (extension targets)
🧠 Final Thoughts:
The market has transitioned from expansion to uncertainty. This phase is where most participants get chopped up — not because the market is random, but because it demands discipline.
The next move will likely be decisive, directional, and fast once confirmation appears.
Stay patient. Watch the levels. Let the market show its hand.
#XBT #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #CryptoMarkets #PriceAction #MarketStructure #InvestSmart #CryptoAnalysis 🚀📉
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It's an Evacuation Through Green Candles💥 "One Last Leap of Faith?" - What Bitcoin Might Be Hiding Before September
The world’s on fire: Israel, Iran, Strait of Hormuz, oil, elections, the dollar, rates, black swan whispers.
And someone’s out here saying Bitcoin might still go up?
Yes. We are. Not because we believe - but because we see.
📉 Everyone’s afraid. The whales aren’t.
When the crowd goes into survival mode, the real game begins.
Whales aren’t exiting - they’re accumulating.
ETFs aren’t pausing - they’re inflowing.
The technical setup isn’t breaking - it’s compressing like a spring.
$104,000. Coil building.
If we break out - targets at $132K–$140K are absolutely in play.
👉 But that’s not the point.
The point is why this is happening while the world is burning.
🧠 The idea: Bitcoin isn’t a safe haven. It’s a distribution machine.
Gold is for panic.
Bitcoin is for structure.
Institutions don’t ask “is it scary?” - they ask “where’s liquidity?”
Everything is aligning for one last upside move.
Until September. After that - chaos is back on the table.
💣 The Global Playbook:
Now (Summer) - Consolidation, ETF flows, geopolitical fear - Strategic entries, low exposure
Breakout - FOMO panic, retail rushes in - Profit-taking via options
September–Fall - Macro/geopolitical shock - Already in cash or hedged
📌 Bottom Line
Yes, Bitcoin might pump. Not because the world is fine - but because someone needs to exit beautifully.
If you're reading this - you're early enough to think.
Markets don’t reward justice. They reward positioning.
🛠 What to do right now:
Watch the $104,000 level - it's the pivot
Breakout = final upside push to $132K–140K
Keep your eyes on September - reversal zone
Think in scenarios: entry, exit, protection
Follow EXCAVO - we don’t guess, we read the game
I've been talking about this scenario for a long time
Short 
Long 
