Reflecting on our positions and where this trade is likely to trade
Consistent growth, profitable, SUPER cheap relative to broad valuations! A rising oil price over the coming years will lead to earnings estimate increases!
Have a great day all!
... to finish after I was rudely cut off, options returns are a bell curve based on duration, you never want to hold them until expiry unless you are planning on taking delivery! (*Note to tradingview - performance should increase for paid subscriptions)
Section 232 Uranium tariffs this month is likely to be a driver on the natural gas price ultimately pushing Chesapeake higher!
API data released at 4.30pm EST on Tuesday show a "surprise" build, however, with expected weakness in hard data there should be no surprises. EIA data will either confirm or deny API's release.
Crude has reached and surpassed our expected target of $61.60 for a reversal. Look for weakness into the close of day today.
Recent price action in copper looks terrible.
We can see slight higher highs from here, however, I expect to see a reversal somewhere between the current price and $61.60
With section 232 Uranium tariffs around the corner, natural gas is lining up perfectly for an event-driven opportunity to get long!
Commodities are typically the last asset to peak during a cycle. We typically interest rates peak first, a couple of months later that followed by equities and a couple of months after equities we see commodities peak. Commodities such as crude oil, are part of the contraction phase in the cycle, the higher the price rises it begins to acts as a tax on consumers...
Chesapeake is likely to see some real buying into April if section 232 tariffs on Uranium are passed (high probability)
65% of crude oil demand is derived from gasoline, with economic conditions weakening we are now switching from supply side issues to potentially demand-side issues. Watch for lower levels of demand for Crude over the coming weeks.
An inside bar / pin bar fake out pattern has formed on the XLE weekly chart. This pattern has formed just below a key resistance level as well as the 50% retracement of the last swing high/low, which is exactly the area we want to see this form. One negative with this setup is that price has formed a very sharp v-shaped reversal off it's lows. That doesn't mean...
Would love to hear your perspective in the comments sections below! Have a wonderful day!
Solar is not baseload energy, however, it is now the cheapest form of electricity.
As you all know by now, I believe this is an event-driven outcome due to section 232 tariffs on Uranium. The decision will be made in April with a high probability it is passed. The blowback is likely higher electricity costs from Nuclear, natural gas is an alternative base load energy.