The Black Hole Swallowing $XLMStellar Lumens is showing clear signs of a bearish structure despite recent volatility. The chart suggests that price action may attempt a relief rally toward the $0.47 zone, but this move looks more like a corrective upswing within a broader downtrend.
Unless CRYPTOCAP:XLM can establish strong support above that level, the probability remains high that it will resume its descent, with a decisive move back below $0.34 on the horizon. In short, the gravitational pull of the broader market trend appears stronger than any short-term bounce.
Patience and risk management are critical here..this is less of a breakout and more of a classic bull trap in the making.
XLMUSD
Stellar (XLM) Market Outlook — September 02, 2025Sergio Richi Premium ✅
#Stellar CRYPTOCAP:XLM — Market Outlook — September 02, 2025.
Current price : $0.3620
Charts:
Let’s be real: Stellar isn’t just another alt. It’s got actual utility — fast cross-border payments, cheap fees, and big-name partners (Visa, PayPal, MoneyGram, even Telegram wallets). That’s not meme-coin hype, that’s infrastructure.
Why It Matters
➖ Protocol 23 Upgrade (September 3, 2025): A major network enhancement focusing on scalability for tokenization and RWA use cases, including improved smart contract performance and data handling. This is expected to boost institutional adoption and could drive XLM toward $1.27-$2.39 if bullish momentum holds.
➖ Archax Partnership (August 18, 2025): Collaboration with institutional-grade exchange Archax to accelerate RWA tokenization, including fractional real estate and yield-bearing assets.
➖ PayPal PYUSD Integration (July–August 2025 Impact): PayPal's stablecoin on Stellar triggered a 5% price surge earlier, with ongoing effects into August. PayPal's Digital Currencies SVP joining SDF further strengthens ties.
➖ Telegram Wallet Integration: Enables seamless XLM transfers within chats, boosting mass adoption.
➖ ZARC Stablecoin Launch (Ongoing 2025): TD Markets' South African Rand-pegged asset on Stellar, ideal for remittances.
➖ Visa Stablecoin Settlement Support: Visa added Stellar for settlements with PYUSD, USDG, and EURC, enhancing global payment rails.
➖ UNDP Partnership and SDG Accelerator: Stellar joins for pilots in climate finance and social protection.
➖ RWA and DeFi Milestones: Q2 2025 saw $4 billion in RWA payments, with tokenized assets rising from $15.2B to $24B. DeFi TVL growth across protocols signals real-world utility.
The Trade
XLM is sitting at $0.36 after a choppy summer. In my book, it’s coiling for the next leg of the global bull run.
🎯 Targets:
➡️ Take Profit 1: $1.27 (+250%)
➡️ Take Profit 2: $2.39 (+560%)
Final Take
Stellar’s building the rails while half the market’s still arguing about ETFs. At these levels, risk/reward screams long.
XLM: Hidden Accumulation Before a Violent Breakout?Yello, Paradisers do you see what’s happening on Stellar right now? While most eyes are turned away, XLM has been quietly carving a base inside a major demand zone, and the setup looks like it could fuel a massive move soon.
💎After weeks of pressure inside a descending channel, #XLMUSDT finally broke out, confirming that sellers are losing strength. For the last several days, XLM has been consolidating right above demand at $0.34–$0.35, holding firm despite repeated retests. This zone remains the line in the sand: as long as it’s defended, buyers keep the upper hand.
💎The breakout area around $0.37 is crucial now. A sustained close above it can trigger momentum toward the $0.42 minor resistance, and eventually even $0.48 where strong supply waits. On the flip side, failure to hold the demand zone could open the door for a deeper flush down into the invalidation area near $0.28, a level that would completely shift the outlook back to bearish.
💎Momentum indicators are already hinting at early accumulation, with signs of buyers stepping in at each retest of support. If this continues, #XLM could deliver a sharp vertical move that catches most of the market unprepared.
🎖Strive for consistency, not quick profits. Treat the market as a businessman, not as a gambler.
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
Is $XRP ready for another leg higher? After breaking out of a 6 month consolidation, XRP broke out from 2.4 and hit 3.6 in late July - is it ready to test the 3.6 level again after consolidating for about 40 days? 2.85 appears to be a good entry with a stop loss of 2.6. Best of luck if you are following.
The XLM chart looks STELLARSince making a High in January of 2018 at just shy of a dollar.
This Asset has made subsequent higher lows during the following two bear markets for #Altcoins. Suggesting strong accumulation from "smart" money.
The last bear was an extended bear for alts. Which allowed for even more time to accumulate this asset.
Leading to a pressure cooker situation with a clear level that will mark the explosion.
The horizontal level at around 52 cents is clear level for which this asset must close to ignite what could possible be a substantial rally!
XLM — Stellar Lumens: AI x RWA, Real Utility, Real Momentum⭐️ XLM — Stellar Lumens: AI x RWA, Real Utility, Real Momentum
Buy/Hold bias aiming for $0.75 🎯; reload zone ~ $0.25 🔁.
Thesis rests on tokenization (RWA) traction, US gov data on-chain, and 2025 scaling roadmap (5k TPS target, faster blocks) + AI tooling around Soroban. If thesis plays out, upside case ≈ +200% from reload—not financial advice.
________________________________________
🔥 Why now (meaningful catalysts)
• US Dept. of Commerce → GDP on Stellar
First time ever: the Commerce Department is putting official GDP data on-chain (hash) on Stellar, creating an immutable, public record—big signal for gov-grade data + DeFi oracles. (Stellar)
• RWA push: new partners & capital-market pipes
SDF’s 2025 goal: $3B RWA value & $110B volume; continuing integrations with Franklin Templeton, Paxos, Ondo, SG Forge. Recent Archax investment targets regulated tokenization rails. (CoinDesk, Stellar)
• Scaling roadmap → utility unlocks
Targeting ~5,000 TPS, 2.5s blocks, OpenZeppelin token standards, and 100× payout capacity (Merkle trees). These hit the exact pain points for enterprise/RWA and payments at scale. (Stellar)
________________________________________
🤖 The AI angle (pipeline + tools)
• Official roadmap AI
o Stella AI Assistant (enhanced) → a more capable agent interface for builders.
o Contract Copilot → AI-assisted smart-contract generation, linting & testing.
These live on SDF’s 2025 roadmap. (Stellar)
• Community AI on Soroban
o AI Agent Kit: lets AI agents interact with Stellar accounts & Soroban contracts.
o SoroBuilder: AI-driven in-browser Soroban contract builder/auditor.
o AI Transparency Token (AITT): compliance attestations on-chain. (Stellar Community Fund)
Net: AI lowers dev friction (faster dApp iteration) and expands use cases (agents, audits, compliance)—a pull for builders who need programmable money + verifiable data.
________________________________________
🧱 Building blocks already in place
• Smart contracts live (Soroban via Protocol 20) → programmable RWA/DeFi. (Oodles Blockchain)
• Freighter wallet upgrades + RPC/ETL improvements → smoother infra & analytics for apps. (Stellar)
• Stablecoin/RWA breadth (e.g., Franklin’s BENJI, Ondo USDY coming to Stellar) → liquidity primitives that institutions recognize. (Stellar)
________________________________________
📣 Recent social buzz (signal, not noise)
• SDF amplified the GDP-on-chain milestone across socials, triggering wider crypto media pickup.
See SDF’s X post and summary thread references. (X (formerly Twitter))
________________________________________
🧭 Levels & plan (author’s framework)
• Primary target: $0.75 🎯 if catalysts execute (RWA flow + scaling).
• Reload zone: $0.25 🔁 (where bulls re-accumulate in my playbook).
• Positioning: Buy/Hold bias for asymmetric upside tied to execution (RWA + AI-tooling + throughput).
• Risk: headline/regulatory risk on RWAs, roadmap slip, crypto beta. Size accordingly.
Note: A +200% outcome reflects upside math from reload zone to target; it’s not a guarantee. Do your own research.
________________________________________
🗓 What to watch next
• Roadmap drops through Q4-2025:
o 2.5s block times target,
o OpenZeppelin token standards for assets/RWAs,
o Freighter mobile & advanced auth,
o Payouts 100× capacity. (Stellar)
• RWA onboarding flow: progress with Archax, Paxos, Ondo, and Franklin—TVL/volume & issuer announcements. (CoinDesk, Stellar)
• Gov/enterprise data on-chain follow-ups after Commerce/GDP—possible spillover into on-chain data feeds for DeFi. (Stellar
XLM/USDT — Descending Triangle at a Key Fibonacci Zone!🔎 Market Overview
Currently, XLM/USDT (Daily, OKX) is trading around 0.3645, testing the golden support zone between 0.3625 (0.5 Fib) and 0.3300 (0.618 Fib).
This area is highly significant because:
It has acted as a historical demand zone, repeatedly holding the price.
It aligns with the Fibonacci golden pocket (0.5 & 0.618 levels), often watched by institutional traders.
Price action forms a descending triangle, where sellers create consistent lower highs while buyers defend a horizontal floor.
In short, we are at a make-or-break decision point: will XLM break down further, or will buyers trigger a strong breakout against the classic bearish setup?
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📐 Structure & Technical Context
Pattern: Descending Triangle → statistically bearish continuation, but strong support zones often trigger bullish fakeouts.
Lower Highs: indicate steady selling pressure.
Horizontal Support: strong cluster around 0.33 – 0.3625, coinciding with golden pocket Fib levels.
Key Resistances Above:
0.4520
0.5047
0.5610
0.6340 – 0.6370 (major supply zone).
A breakout above could flip the triangle into a bear trap and spark a mid-term rally.
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🚀 Bullish Scenario
Main condition: price must break above the descending trendline with a convincing daily close + high volume.
Conservative entry: wait for breakout + retest (price breaks the trendline, then retests as support).
Upside Targets:
TP1 = 0.4520
TP2 = 0.5047
TP3 = 0.5610
TP4 = 0.6340 – 0.6370 (major resistance zone).
Invalidation: daily close below 0.33 (breakdown confirmed).
📊 Example Risk/Reward:
Entry = 0.3645
Stop = 0.33
TP1 = 0.4520
→ Risk = 0.0345 | Reward = 0.0875 → R:R ≈ 2.5 : 1
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🩸 Bearish Scenario
If support breaks:
Trigger: daily close < 0.33 (0.618 Fib).
Downside Targets:
First = 0.27
Next = 0.23
Extended = 0.17 (historical swing low).
Strategy: short on breakdown + retest (support turned resistance).
Invalidation: price reclaims trendline & closes above 0.4520.
---
📊 Trading Plan Summary
The 0.33–0.3625 zone is the golden decision point:
Holding → potential bullish rally.
Breaking → deeper bearish continuation.
The descending triangle clearly shows where pressure is building.
Always manage risk tightly, as this pattern often creates false breakouts before the real move.
---
XLM is sitting at a critical crossroads. A descending triangle has formed exactly on the golden pocket Fibonacci (0.33–0.3625). A breakout could trigger upside targets at 0.45 / 0.50 / 0.56, while a breakdown could lead to 0.27 / 0.23. Wait for daily close + volume confirmation. This golden zone will decide XLM’s next big move.
#XLM #Stellar #XLMUSDT #CryptoAnalysis #Altcoin #DescendingTriangle #SupportResistance #Fibonacci #Breakout #BearishOrBullish #SwingTrade
XLM Breakout Watch | How Global Markets Are Setting the StageIn this update, I break down XLM’s mid-term outlook and why the $0.65 level is a key breakout zone to confirm further upside. Based on current patterns, I’m targeting a potential move into the $100–$138 range over the mid-term.
While Bitcoin still influences XLM, the backdrop of massive money printing since 2018 has created conditions for meaningful accumulation, setting the stage for higher prices. Add to that an environment of rising interest rates, Fed interventions, and volatility cycles, and it’s clear we’re only at the beginning of what could be a period of outsized returns.
Stellar’s role in a shifting economic system also can’t be ignored. As fiat currencies face structural limits, crypto offers a framework that breaks those shackles, with altcoins like XLM poised to outperform Bitcoin in the next cycle.
Markets will continue to follow their familiar pump-and-dump patterns, but each cycle brings diminishing returns for central bank interventions—leaving room for crypto markets to step in and restore balance.
Stay tuned for the charts and insights that put these patterns into perspective.
XLMUSD about to rise parabolically?Stellar (XLMUSD) has turned sideways since the July 14 High (weekly) but remains supported by its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The 8-year pattern is an Ascending Triangle and this recent consolidation resembles a Bull Flag formation.
The very same pattern was seen in October - November 2017, which after holding the 1W MA50, initiated the final parabolic rally of that Cycle that peaked a little above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
Attention is needed though as the last 1W Golden Cross was during the last Cycle and led to its Top a few weeks after.
As a result, the confirmation to resume the bullish trend would be a break above the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Ascending Triangle and in that case, our Target will be $2.15 (Fib 1.618 ext).
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XLM/USDT Secondary trend. 14 04 2025Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. After a big pump "with a stick" (so that the "waiters" who want "a little cheaper" would not have time to buy) +8.5X from the accumulation zone of 2.4 years, now a descending wedge is forming on the rollback, similar to 2017. Breaking through its resistance (breaking the downward trend) - the second wave of price growth:
1) through consolidation and sideways movement (cutting the zone, dumping "in waves").
2) aggressive pump as in 2017 "with a stick" and entry into the main distribution zone (late autumn 2025)
The previous idea of the secondary trend was published on 14 01 2024 Exactly when the position was being collected in the horizontal channel in the 4 zones shown, as well as the reversal zone and the percentage of this first strong pump (under XRP).
XLM/USDT Secondary trend. 14 01 2024
XLM/USD Main trend. Timeframe 1 week. Channel. Publication in 2022.
Local wedge breakout zone.
XLM/USDT - Bullish Momentum Gaining Strength🚀 Trade Setup Details:
🕯 #XLM/USDT 🔼 Buy | Long 🔼
⌛️ TimeFrame: 1D
--------------------
🛡 Risk Management (Example):
🛡 Based on $10,000 Balance
🛡 Loss-Limit: 1% (Conservative)
🛡 The Signal Margin: $375.52
--------------------
☄️ En1: 0.336 (Amount: $37.55)
☄️ En2: 0.303 (Amount: $131.43)
☄️ En3: 0.2815 (Amount: $168.98)
☄️ En4: 0.2615 (Amount: $37.55)
--------------------
☄️ If All Entries Are Activated, Then:
☄️ Average.En: 0.2929 ($375.52)
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☑️ TP1: 0.4316 (+47.35%) (RR:1.78)
☑️ TP2: 0.5206 (+77.74%) (RR:2.92)
☑️ TP3: 0.6607 (+125.57%) (RR:4.72)
☑️ TP4: 0.8946 (+205.43%) (RR:7.71)
☑️ TP5: 1.2501 (+326.8%) (RR:12.27)
☑️ TP6: Open 🔝
--------------------
❌ SL: 0.2149 (-26.63%) (-$100)
--------------------
💯 Maximum.Lev: 2X
⌛️ Trading Type: Swing Trading
‼️ Signal Risk: 🙂 Low-Risk! 🙂
🔎 Technical Analysis Breakdown:
This technical analysis is based on Price Action, Elliott waves, SMC (Smart Money Concepts), and ICT (Inner Circle Trader) concepts. All entry points, Target Points, and Stop Losses are calculated using professional mathematical formulas. As a result, you can have an optimal trade setup based on great risk management.
📊 Sentiment & Market Context:
Stellar (XLM) is showing strong bullish momentum amid a growing demand for scalable, fast cross-border payment solutions. With the expanding adoption of Stellar’s blockchain technology in financial institutions and partnerships driving real-world use cases, market sentiment is turning increasingly optimistic. This fundamental strength combined with solid technical setups makes XLM/USDT a compelling long opportunity.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
Trading involves significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your research and trade responsibly.
💡 Stay Updated:
Like this technical analysis? Follow me for more in-depth insights, technical setups, and market updates. Let's trade smarter together!
Stellar Falls To $0.40; But Parabolic SAR Flags Deeper DeclineAt the time of writing , BINANCE:XLMUSDT trades at $0.409 and faces a risk of slipping lower. Technical factors point to a potential drop toward $0.393 support, a level that may determine whether bearish control continues to strengthen in the coming sessions.
From a technical perspective, BINANCE:XLMUSDT momentum is leaning bearish . The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has confirmed a bearish crossover, signaling growing downside pressure. The crossover reflects weakening strength among buyers and indicates a market environment increasingly favorable for sellers.
Adding to the concern, the Parabolic SAR indicator is positioned above candlesticks, acting as resistance. This placement confirms a downtrend, suggesting BINANCE:XLMUSDT could face additional declines. If bearish sentiment dominates, the cryptocurrency might even test deeper support near $0.359, worsening investor confidence further.
However, if traders shift toward a bullish stance, Stellar has recovery potential. Reclaiming $0.424 as support could allow BINANCE:XLMUSDT to climb toward $0.445. Achieving this move would negate the bearish outlook, signaling renewed strength and stabilizing the asset after recent declines.
Xlm - More short term upside. Should we be medium term bearish?There is a high probability that Btc will go lower (see my Aug 16 Btc chart). Does that mean alts will too? I hope not, but I need to protect my gains. Being too bulish can get me in trouble, especially if I'm not taking profits.
Being aware of inflection points has proven to be extremely helpful in retaining my gains. If I'm wrong and the asset pumps, that's OK too. Because I have learned that losing out on "potential gains" (FOMO) is NOT the same as losing my capital.
May the trends be with you.
How did I know that Xlm would retrace...then bounce off $0.38?On Aug 5th I suggested that Xlm was apporaching an "inflection point", indicated by my green and red arrows converging at $0.38. See chart below from Aug 5th.
In mathematics an "inflection point" is a point in the curve at which a change in the direction of curvature occurs. These price charts are merely graphs, with coordinates and reoccuring patterns. Anticipating inflection points allow me to determine directionality. Knowing where direction may change allows me to either make quick profitable decisions and/or where to set appropriate stops (invalidation).
TA works!
XLMUADT Ready for Another Moonshot After Bullish Flag Breakout!$XLMUADT has just broken out of a well-formed bullish flag pattern, signaling the potential start of a strong upward move. This comes after its earlier breakout from a rising channel, which delivered impressive gains to traders who caught the move. The current breakout setup mirrors that previous rally, and if history repeats, we could be looking at another powerful uptrend in the making.
With momentum building and technicals aligning, buyers seem to be taking control again. However, as always, risk management is key, keep a strict stop loss in place to protect capital and lock in profits as the move unfolds. The market has already shown us what CRYPTOCAP:XLM can do, and this breakout might just be the next big opportunity.
$XLMUADT Currently trading at $0.44
Buy level : Above $0.415
Stop loss : Below $0.35
Target 1: $0.522
Target 2: $0.6
Target 3: $0.8
Max leverage 5x
Always keep stop loss
Follow Our Tradingview Account for More Technical Analysis Updates, | Like, Share and Comment Your thoughts
Bullish on XLMUSDTStellar / XLM turns bullish again, retracement is over. We have an EMA cross, we have passed an high volume node and now we try to move above EMA200. As soon as we manage to stay above we will head for the targets around 0.46$ and 0.52$.
For more trade ideas check and insights check our profile.
Disclamer: only entertaining purpose, no financial advice - trading is risky.
Stellar (XML) Price Ends 2-Week Downtrend As Inflows SpikeBINANCE:XLMUSDT price is currently trading at $0.41 1, just under the resistance level of $0.424. Breaking this resistance will be key for XLM to recover the recent losses and continue its upward trajectory. The Parabolic SAR moving below the candlesticks after two weeks signals that the downtrend is coming to an end.
Ethereum’s technical indicators also suggest a return to bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved back into the positive zone, above the neutral 50.0 mark, after briefly dipping into bearish territory. This reversal from the prior downtrend shows that BINANCE:XLMUSDT is regaining strength.
The RSI indicates that investor sentiment is improving . The brief period of bearishness was likely caused by broader market uncertainty and skepticism. However, with the RSI back in the positive range, the likelihood of further price increases has increased.
If Stellar can flip $0.424 into support , it could pave the way for a rise past $0.445 and possibly reach $0.470 . This would allow BINANCE:XLMUSDT to recover a significant portion of the losses it sustained over the past two weeks and continue its uptrend.
However, if broader market conditions fail to remain bullish and investor sentiment turns negative, BINANCE:XLMUSDT could face a decline. A failure to maintain support at $0.424 could lead XLM to drop to $0.393 , with further bearish momentum pushing the price to $0.359, invalidating the bullish outlook.
Stellar (XLM) Shoot Up 11%, Aims To Cross This Barrier
BINANCE:XLMUSDT price has increased by 11% over the last 24 hours , positioning it among the top-performing altcoins. Trading at $0.4077 , the altcoin remains under the resistance of $0.4245. This indicates potential for a breakout if broader market conditions stay favorable and support the bullish trend.
The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) provides strong support, signaling that the broader market momentum is bullish. This support could propel BINANCE:XLMUSDT towards $0.4450 , with further gains potentially pushing it to $0.4701, confirming the continuation of its positive trajectory in the market if conditions remain favorable.
However, if market conditions worsen , especially with the upcoming August 7 announcements, XLM might fail to breach $0.4245 . In this case, the price could fall to $0.3597 , and losing this support would invalidate the bullish outlook for BINANCE:XLMUSDT , signaling potential downside risks in the coming days.
XLMUSDT 1H Market OutlookBINANCE:XLMUSDT
Trade Setup:
Target 1: 0.4513
Target 2: 0.4872
Target 3: 0.5231
Target 4: 0.1808
Stop Loss: 0.3795
Pattern: The chart indicates a "CHOCH" (Change of Character) pattern, suggesting a potential trend reversal or continuation depending on context.
Trend: Recent price action shows an upward movement after a dip, with the price approaching the entry level.
"Stellar XLM will definitely reach 0.6389."" Stellar (XLM) is expected to begin its upward move from the price zones of 0.3375, 0.3153, and 0.2822, heading toward the confirmed targets of 0.5215 and then 0.6389.
While the exact starting point may vary slightly, the targets at 0.5215 and 0.6389 are considered certain." BINANCE:XRPUSDT
Juicy 12hr Setup on $XLMUSDT
Decided to take this as a short-term play, level by level.
Already holding an initial position (see my previous CRYPTOCAP:XLM post), but this current setup was too clean to pass up.
Still believe CRYPTOCAP:XLM is one of those coins primed to finally break out of its multiyear consolidation—and I’m expecting that breakout to happen this year.
First TP at 62c, and letting the rest ride if momentum kicks in. BINANCE:XLMUSDT