The Japanese yen is in positive territory on Thursday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 142.85, down 0.61%. Later today, the US releases third-estimate GDP for the third quarter, which is expected to confirm that the economy grew at an impressive rate of 5.2% q/q. Japan's Core CPI, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, is considered the...
This week financial markets were dominated by central banks policy decisions. While the Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BOE) kept rates on hold, the policy board of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to further increase the flexibility in its yield curve control policy. The BOJ previously set a strict cap of 1.0% for the 10-year Japanese Government Bond...
The Japanese yen has steadied after three straight days of losses. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.11, down 0.19%. Tokyo Core CPI climbed 2.7% y/y in October, above 2.5% in September which was also the consensus estimate. The index, which excludes fresh food is a key indicator of inflation trends in Japan and is closely monitored by the Bank of...
USD/JPY continues to have a quiet week and is almost unchanged, trading at 135.20. The markets will be keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan's Summary of Opinions, which will be released later today. The summaries rarely move the dial on the yen, but this summary could be different, as it covers the April meeting which was the first chaired by Governor Kazuo...
This week's data calendar out of Japan will be dominated by inflation releases and the Bank of Japan's two-day meeting at the end of the week. Traders will be keeping a close eye on BoJ Core CPI, which will be released on Tuesday. The index, which is the BoJ's preferred inflation gauge, fell from 3.1% to 2.7% in February. Another drop would support the central...
Here we can see Japan is slurping up bonds to hold down oil prices. (vs. USD: Red) (vs. SAR Green) Simultaneously the us05y (orange) is compressing below the us30y (yellow), uninverting the yield curve and firing off our famous recession signals. But people wonder why the MOVE index is so wildly off the charts..
The Japanese yen has gained ground on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 136.17, down 0.44%. There was some positive news on the inflation front, as Tokyo Core CPI for February slowed for the first time since January 2022. The indicator was expected to rise from 4.3% to 4.5%, but instead reversed directions and fell to 3.3%. The sharp drop was...
The chart below shows when we started to switch sides in yen at 149.3x on October 18th. Three days later, we had FED 'slip of the tongue' admitting being passed the mid-point in rate cycle, and finally the dollar began to cool. BOJ have no option but to move rates higher. The clock is ticking for a move under $125, unlocking $110 and $100 with the full swing. ...
USD/JPY is in positive territory on Monday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 128.50, up 0.52%. The yen had an excellent week, climbing over 3% and trading at levels not seen since May 2022. The Bank of Japan holds a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday in what could be one of the highlights of the week. BOJ meetings were...
The Japanese yen has sent the dollar tumbling on Tuesday. USD/JPY has fallen 3.26% and is trading at 132.44 in Europe. In the Asian session, USD/JPY fell as low as 131.99 but has recovered slightly. At the end of its policy meeting, the Bank of Japan stunned the markets with a change to its yield curve control (YCC). The BoJ announced it would widen the band...
The Japanese yen continues to post strong swings this week and is up sharply on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 134.67 in Europe, up 1.86% on the day. It's been a busy week, with the markets still digesting some dramatic moves by central banks. The Fed and SNB delivered massive salvos in their fight against inflation, and the BoE continues to tighten, albeit at a...
potential double top around 3.23% on 10 year treasury rate, coincides with resistance of multi decade down trend (yellow). on a logarithmic price chart.. or do we break out of a multi decade trend and see rates go higher? even if we did break out, could the Fed respond with YCC to stop long end rates going up, which could break the financial system..? thoughts and...
The rally in USD/JPY has massively accelerated in recent weeks as markets and the Fed have become increasingly hawkish on US interest rates. This has happened at a time when many central banks are heading in that direction, even the ECB which at one point looked years away from interest rates above 0%. While they haven't yet conceded on the kind of rate hikes...