Volatility has risen in the last days Commercial Traders are going extremely long since a few weeks no distribution in the last weeks
Bulled up... just a matter of weather* $4 support holds or we drop down to 3.5 levels Trend line resistance erroded
Long term looks very bearish - Supportive trend line (green) from started in 2002... broke down last year - H&S pattern set up - H&S neckline touched up but 1870 not taken out yet Looking at potential pull back to broken trend line (green), up into 3000
I am still getting my feet wet with waves so take this count with a grain of salt..however I thought it was educational for myself and potentially others. Even though it seems very "convenient" that we are coming close to the end of Wave C, it does align with the view of the bullish Bat pattern. If you see something I can fix please share it with me so I can learn...
If I were asked to pick just one asset to be long in 2017, I'd consider wheat as my top choice. I am still long from 422. As shown below, I got stopped out but managed to re-enter at that exact price.
I had an order set to short 1 pip above the current high of the day and didn't get picked up. I have since moved the order to the high as shown in the chart. Risk:Reward is pretty nice and looking left (further left than on this chart) there is some structure which supports this as a supply zone. Wheat has been looking pretty bullish so it would probably be...
Looks like decision time. Bounce or tank
A rather logical looking interpretation. There's a reasonable degree of support, whilst we're buying in the lowest percentiles of the last decade. Further, the probability of the downtrend being breached looks increasingly likely. Further, the return distribution of commodities is particularly convex or asymmetric with a long right tail. Thus, we can give the...
Is inflation starting to feed through to softs!?!
Consolidating on long term support line 386 or 412. Will see what unfolds. Would look to buy into 393 level and below.
wheat has been pushed down hard on large crop volume and seems like good time to take a shot, will use a calendar spread to reduce cash required
37 work day tg 532 buy the dips 413-415 good price
In short-term I think wheat is ready to return to balance price. Positive factors: + soaring global ethanol demand; + prospects of lower crop inputs in the face of falling profitability; + strong recovery in global feed demand (USDA hiked by nearly 11m tonnes to 144.4m tonnes its forecast for world feed use of wheat in 2016-17. That's the second highest...
Looking to catch a potential rally into 480 level before shorting off long term bearish trend line (around 480) to short into sub 425.
I still haven't come across any compelling justification to get long besides my technical read. Most fundamentals, crop yields, weather all appear to suggest we go further south but we are now in my buy zone
Fundamentally not much bullish... maybe a mini USD meltdown/correction might provide enough to send all commodities flying? Strong support around 420-430