SinnSeed | ROSNEFT (ROSN) | Overview - 15.02.2026🛢 #SinnSeed | ROSNEFT (ROSN) | Overview: News, Financials, Forecast 🔗
🖥 Latest Developments & Impact on Stock Price
⚠️ Sanctions & Exports . In October 2025, the US included #Rosneft (along with #Lukoil ) in a new sanctions package. The consequences are already being felt:
🔴 Exports plunged ~32% by December 2025 — the Urals discount widened to 25 USD/bbl 🔴 Oil volumes stuck on tankers at sea — shares dropped 3.8–5.6% depending on the exchange 🔴 India's imports of Russian oil fell to the lowest since 2022 — ~1.1M bbl/day in January 2026
⚠️ The PCK Schwedt Problem. The German refinery, held under trust management, remains a point of tension. Sanctions threaten fuel supplies to Berlin. Rosneft has officially warned of the risks — deadline April 29, 2026.
💥 Incidents & Production. A series of #drone attacks in November–December 2025 damaged oil depots and #refineries . The result — a loss of 350K bbl/day in January 2026. No major new contracts. The company is pivoting to the domestic market and counting on tax incentives of ~10B RUB/year for 2026–2030.
📉 Combined effect: shares have lost 12–15% since October 2025. Financial crisis. H1 2025 profit collapsed by 68%. #CEO Sechin publicly blames Western restrictions. 🤥
📊 Financial Analysis | 9M 2025 (IFRS)
🔻 Revenue → 6,288B RUB (−17.8% YoY) 🔻 EBITDA → 1,641B RUB (−29.3% YoY) 🔻 Net Income → 277B RUB (−70.1% YoY) ▪️ Free Cash Flow → 591B RUB 🔻 Net Debt / EBITDA → 1.3x ▪️ Total Debt → ~36B USD
Quarterly Profit Dynamics: Q1 → 170B ▸ Q2 → 74B ▸ Q3 → 32B RUB The trend is clear — an accelerating decline. 🔽
Key Pressure Drivers:
🔻 Low oil prices + market surplus (~2.6M bbl/day) 🔻 Ruble appreciation eating into RUB-denominated revenue (thanks to the NWF and the fiscal rule) 🔻 High CBR key rate → debt servicing costs +2.5–3.8B USD 🔻 Declining gas production (−13.1%) and refining (−7.8%)
🔮 Forecast Through August 2026
The base case assumes continued sanctions pressure and a market surplus of ~2.4M bbl/day in 2026.
Выручка: −10–15% YoY → ~8T RUB/year, assuming Urals doesn't hold above 50 USD Net Income: stabilization or −20% → ~300–350B RUB/year
🔸 Upside support — tax incentives and the Vostok Oil project (launch in 2026, target capacity up to 2M bbl/day by 2030)
Debt load: Net Debt / EBITDA → 1.5–1.7x, with risk of increased borrowings
Stock: — if oil > 60 USD → rebound potential +5–10% — if oil < 60 USD → further decline likely −5–10%
Technical Picture 👨💻
📉 A correction to the 38.2% level indicates a strong downtrend.
By 20.03.2026, I expect a drop to 325 RUB. Followed by a continuation to 290 RUB. A potential impulse move toward the 260–240 RUB zone is possible, after which a local reversal could be considered.
No buying before 260 RUB .
What do you think about the forecast? Share in the comments.
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