However, when I actually calculated the probability, the closing price does not follow a normal distribution.
According to the normal distribution, the probability that Z > 2 should be 2.2%, but on the chart, the probability is 6~9%.
Can we get a useful value for that we can use in our strategy?
We can measure , but can we judge based on a fixed value?
To the right of each value, the probability that the price is above the band is displayed.
The script is simply annotated with how each probability is calculated.
In true TradingView spirit, the author of this script has published it open-source, so traders can understand and verify it. Cheers to the author! You may use it for free, but reuse of this code in a publication is governed by House Rules. You can favorite it to use it on a chart.