ISM Indicator As a Strategy

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Here's a very easy code, plotting the ISM against the SPX             . In this exercise, i wanted to see if one could use the ISM indicator only to generate buy/sell signal, and what would be the performance.

What is the ISM

The ISM Manufacturing Index monitors employment , production inventories, new orders and supplier deliveries.By monitoring the ISM Manufacturing Index, investors are able to better understand national economic conditions. When this index is increasing, investors can assume that the stock markets should increase because of higher corporate profits. The opposite can be thought of the bond markets, which may decrease as the ISM Manufacturing Index increases because of sensitivity to potential inflation .

Buy/Sell Signal

ISM above 50 usually good economic condition and vice versa when below 50 . For this code I used 48.50 as my buy/sell signal line.


To test this on a longer time period, I use the SPX             index instead of SPY             . The results are surprisingly good. 76.92% profitability with 3.03 profit factor.


Investors could use the ISM with other indicators to determine better entry and exit point. I will see if combining the ISM with other custom indicators , could generate better result. Feel free to share your results here.



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strategy("ISM Indicator Strategy ", overlay=true)

ism = security("MAN_PMI","M",close)

buy = ism > 48.50
sell = ism < 48.50

longCondition = buy
if (longCondition)
    strategy.entry("My Long Entry Id", strategy.long)
strategy.close_all(when = sell)

mid = 48.50

plot (mid, color = lime)
Raoul Pal - mention something similar six months ago
I noted that similarly Raoul Pal mentioned correlation 1 Dec15
+1 Reply
yup , Pretty straight forward and simple.
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