Trade Less, Choose Less, Profit More: The Counterintuitive Edge.Most retail traders believe they need more—more trades, more setups, more indicators, more signals. But in reality, the traders who survive (and thrive) do the opposite. They trade less frequently, reduce the number of decisions, and lock in a fixed risk-to-reward ratio that keeps their edge stable.
Here’s why simplifying your trading increases your chances of long-term profitability.
1. Trading Less Reduces Mistakes
Every trade is a decision.
Every decision carries emotional and cognitive load.
The more trades you take:
the more tired your brain becomes
the more emotional impulses creep in
the more likely you are to overreact to noise
the more commissions/spreads you pay
the more small errors compound into big losses
By reducing trading frequency, you automatically reduce the number of opportunities for mistakes.
Fewer trades → Higher quality → More consistency.
Elite traders don’t take every “okay” trade.
They wait for the A+ setups that align perfectly with their plan.
2. Fewer Choices = Lower Variance in Outcomes
When you have too many signals, too many strategies, or too many timeframes, your decision-making becomes inconsistent. Choice overload raises the variance in outcomes—you might catch a big win today and then give it all back tomorrow on impulsive trades.
Reducing choices tightens your performance curve.
When you:
trade one setup type
focus on one pair or market
use one timeframe
follow one clear trigger
…your results stabilize. The randomness disappears, and your edge becomes measurable.
A stable edge is a profitable edge.
3. A Fixed RRR Protects You From Yourself
Most traders blow accounts not because of strategy, but because of inconsistent risk-to-reward ratios.
Sometimes they take 1:3, sometimes they settle for 1:1, sometimes they hold for 1:6 and give it back. This inconsistency destroys expectancy.
A fixed RRR:
forces discipline
keeps losses small
standardizes wins
makes your edge mathematically trackable
creates predictable long-term performance
Your job is NOT to predict the market.
Your job is to control the asymmetry between risk and reward.
A consistent 1:2 or 1:3 turns even a 40% win rate into profitability.
Final Thought
If you feel stuck, overwhelmed, or inconsistent, don’t add more tools.
Remove them.
The fewer decisions you have to make, the fewer mistakes you make.
The fewer trades you take, the higher your quality becomes.
And the more consistent your RRR, the more likely you are to stay profitable.
In trading, less really is more.
Community ideas
Understanding the Midpoint Magnet: Weekly Price Filling The concept of 50% price filling on a weekly candle within a consolidation area relates to the common technical analysis practice of looking for a midpoint retracement before a potential breakout. When an asset's price enters a consolidation phase on the weekly chart—meaning it's trading sideways within a defined high and low (often forming patterns like rectangles or triangles)—traders view the 50% level of that range (the distance from the high to the low) as a key point of equilibrium or balance between buyers and sellers. This level, which is a psychological point often included in the Fibonacci retracement tool despite not being a true Fibonacci ratio, can act as a magnet where price action is likely to 'fill' or return to before initiating the next major move. Therefore, a weekly candle's wick or body penetrating and reversing at this 50% level suggests a rebalancing of orders and offers a high-probability zone for traders to anticipate either a continuation of the prior trend or a strong breakout from the consolidation range.
Consolidation area
Identifying Consolidation and Key Levels
Consolidation Area: The broader charts show the price of Gold Spot (XAUUSD) entering a period of sideways trading, characterized by alternating weekly bullish (green) and bearish (red) candles, often within a defined high and low range. This area represents a balance or indecision between supply and demand.
Key Candle/Range: The concept then focuses on a specific high-momentum candle (e.g., the Nov 2nd Week Candle) or the entire range of the consolidation to establish the boundaries for the analysis.
The 50% Level: The critical level is the 50% retracement (or midpoint) of this chosen range. This level is considered the Equilibrium (EQ) point, where buyers and sellers are perfectly balanced.
Example
On this chart, we see:
Each weekly candle dipped into the midpoint of the one before it,
Created reaction,
And built a foundation for continuation.
As long as the market keeps holding above the 50% zone, the structure remains intact and biased toward continuation.
During consolidation phases, the market often displays a repetitive behaviour:
each weekly candle tends to retrace and fill approximately 50% of the previous week’s candle before continuing in either direction.
This happens because the midpoint of a strong weekly candle is a fair value zone, where:
liquidity is gathered,
trapped orders are resolved,
and the market achieves balance before the next move.
How the Chart Demonstrates This
November 2nd week candle
A large bullish candle created a strong move upward.
This left an imbalance in price.
The midpoint of this candle sits around 4,122.
Following weeks
Price entered consolidation.
Each weekly candle retraced into the 50% zone of the previous week’s candle.
When price reached the midpoint, buyers stepped in again, causing a bounce.
Repeat Structure
This pattern repeated across the next candles:
wick down → fill midpoint → rejection → continuation
Showing a rhythmic behaviour characteristic of consolidation:
Slow pullback
Midpoint fill
Reaction
Next candle repeats
Current Candle
Again moved back into the midpoint zone, confirming the same behaviour.
Holding above the 50% level maintains a bullish continuation structure.
Why This Happens
The 50% zone of a strong candle is often where:
-institutions reload
-pending orders sit
-imbalances are corrected
This zone is neither expensive nor cheap — it’s fair value.
So, during sideways phases, price frequently returns there to:
✔ collect liquidity
✔ balance the market
✔ establish support or resistance
Before the next directional move occurs.
Key Takeaway
In consolidation, the market does not trend strongly.
Instead, it oscillates around the previous candle’s midpoint.
Why Bitcoin Endures While 90% of Altcoins Are Born to… Die Over more than five years of observing the crypto market, one clear pattern stands out: Bitcoin survives every cycle, while most altcoins only last a few storms before vanishing. This is not a subjective impression but a reality that any serious investor must understand. Bitcoin and altcoins differ in origin, value, and market strength, and these differences are what allow BTC to endure while most altcoins fade away early.
Bitcoin was created with the mission of becoming “digital gold.” It has a fixed supply of 21 million, operates in a decentralized manner, is not controlled by any single organization, and is widely accepted as a global asset. In contrast, around 90% of altcoins are launched primarily to raise capital, for marketing purposes, or to chase technological trends. Bitcoin exists because of real value; altcoins exist on temporary expectations. When these expectations fade, altcoins die, while trust in BTC grows, allowing Bitcoin to continue evolving and remain a cornerstone of the market.
Another distinction lies in cycles. Bitcoin follows a four-year halving cycle, moving through stages of accumulation, boom, correction, and re-accumulation. BTC consistently surpasses previous highs thanks to its stable cycle and long-term capital, which ensures enduring vitality. Altcoins, however, often experience a short life cycle: launch, hype, pump, dump, and eventual oblivion. Most altcoins stop at the final stage and never return to previous peaks, while Bitcoin always finds a way to reach new highs, demonstrating superior resilience.
Capital backing is also a decisive factor. Bitcoin is accumulated by ETFs, major banks, financial institutions, certain countries like El Salvador, and large corporations such as MicroStrategy. This represents long-term, sustainable capital capable of withstanding market fluctuations. Altcoins, on the other hand, rely mainly on short-term traders, retail FOMO, or social media marketing, making their prices highly volatile when capital exits. Thanks to stable institutional flows, Bitcoin is continuously accumulated and is rarely at risk of “dying” in any cycle.
Token structure creates another clear difference. Altcoins often undermine their own value through tokenomics: early unlocks, large team allocations, high inflation, and weak real demand. Bitcoin is entirely different: fixed supply, no one can mint more, and halving reduces supply over time. This increasing scarcity acts as a shield for its value, explaining why Bitcoin endures over time.
The biggest distinction also lies in the role of each type of currency. Bitcoin serves as the standard and backbone of the market; altcoins are merely “experimental products.” When BTC rises, altcoins revive; when BTC moves sideways, altcoins pump along with the flow; when BTC drops sharply, altcoins crash the hardest. This is a crucial reason for investors to understand that Bitcoin is a real asset, whereas altcoins are interchangeable products that can fail at any time.
Smart investing starts with understanding this difference. Bitcoin survives because of trust, economic structure, and real value, while altcoins exist on expectations, marketing, and short-term capital. To thrive long-term in the crypto market, you should treat Bitcoin as a foundational, enduring pillar and view altcoins as short-term, high-risk opportunities. Once you grasp this rule, you will avoid being swept into “moonshot” projects or holding altcoins that never return to previous highs, and instead invest with strategic vision rather than emotion.
How Market Drivers Influence Forex PhasesI examined the key drivers and major players in the Forex market. Price patterns are a direct reflection of human psychology responding to significant events and the subsequent flow of institutional money. Therefore, understanding what influences overall market direction is crucial.
Above, you'll find a few historical events on the EUR/USD chart to analyze their effects on price movements.
Below is a brief overview of the four main drivers and the role of speculation in the Forex market.
******************
Key Triggers for Market Shifts
Market shifts in Forex are influenced by several key drivers. Grasping these drivers enables better identification of market phases and the price patterns that emerge within them.
Economic Health
Refers to consumers' financial stability and purchasing power.
A healthy consumer sector boosts economic growth and strengthens a country's currency.
Positive consumer sentiment leads to bullish currency trends, while negative sentiment results in bearish trends.
Monetary Policy
Central banks influence currency rates through interest rate policies.
Decisions regarding interest rates are high-impact news in Forex.
Central banks aim for maximum employment and inflation control, affecting currency value through their policies.
Fiscal Policy
Government expenditure on services and infrastructure impacts aggregate demand and GDP.
Increased spending can stimulate the economy, leading to currency appreciation.
However, if spending is funded by borrowing, it may lead to a higher budget deficit, causing loss of investor confidence and currency depreciation.
Political Stability
Refers to the reliability of a country's government and policies.
Stability encourages foreign investment and capital inflow, leading to currency appreciation.
Political unpredictability can deter investment and negatively impact currency value.
******************
Role of Speculation
Speculation from investors, based on perceived outcomes of these market drivers, creates volatility.
Major Market Players:
Investment Banks: The largest players in the Forex market, trading significant volumes between themselves and on behalf of clients like hedge funds and governments.
Hedge Funds: The third-largest players, trading pooled capital with long-term strategies.
Retail Traders: Although they contribute a high volume of transactions, their collective impact is smaller compared to institutional investors.
Speculation fuels volatility and price fluctuations.
Understanding these components helps identify patterns in the Forex market, leading to better trading strategies.
When to Trade — When to Stay OutWhen to Trade — When to Stay Out: A Deep, Practical Guide for Traders
Timing is a core edge. Not every hour, session, or chart condition is trade-worthy. The difference between a profitable trader and an active losing trader is not how many trades they take — it’s which trades they take and when. This article gives you a detailed, systematic framework to decide when to trade and when to stay out, with concrete rules, time windows, checklists and worked examples.
Big-picture logic
Markets are driven by liquidity (where orders sit), volatility (how fast price moves) and participants (who is trading). Good timing aligns these three:
Liquidity concentration (institutions, marketmakers) produces cleaner, higher-probability moves.
Right volatility means enough movement to reach targets but not so much that stop losses are random.
Recognizable market structure (trends, ranges, breaks) allows rules to be applied consistently.
If any of the three is missing, edge declines and risk of random losses rises.
Session windows — when the market is most tradable
Below are standard session definitions in UTC+00:00. Adjust for daylight savings if required (noted where relevant).
Tokyo / Asian Session
⏵ UTC+00:00: 23:00 – 08:00 ( main liquidity often 23:00–02:00 UTC )
⏵ Characteristic: lower liquidity for major FX pairs, choppier price action. Exceptions: JPY crosses, pairs with Asia-led liquidity, and crypto (24/7).
London Session
⏵ UTC+00:00: 07:00 – 16:00 (most active 08:00–11:00 UTC)
⏵ Characteristic: heavy institutional flow, high liquidity. Many clear directional moves begin here.
New York Session
⏵ UTC+00:00: 12:00 – 21:00 (most active 13:00–16:00 UTC)
⏵ Characteristic: continuation or reversal of London moves; major news releases occur here.
Key overlap (best single window)
⏵ London–New York overlap: UTC+00:00 ~12:00–16:00. Highest combined liquidity and volatility; most “clean” trends and reliable breakouts occur here.
Rule of thumb: Prefer intraday trades during the London session and the London–New York overlap. Be selective in Asia unless trading JPY pairs or range-break strategies designed for low liquidity.
Concrete: Best times to trade (prioritized)
Session open impulse — first 60–120 minutes of London or New York sessions.
Overlap window — London + New York overlap (UTC+00:00 ~12:00–16:00).
Post-news verified moves — 10–30 minutes after high-impact macro prints, if market structure becomes clear and isn’t just noise.
Clear breakouts after consolidation during active sessions (volume confirmation, sweep of liquidity, not just a one-bar spike).
When to avoid trading (and why)
Low-volume Asian hours for majors — price tends to chop and give false signals.
Right before major macro releases (NFP, CPI, FOMC) — price can gap or spike unpredictably. Exceptions: defined volatility playbook with strict hedges.
Midday lulls after initial session impulse — often flat ranges and low edge.
On unclear structure / messy price action — wide, overlapping candles, no clear swing highs/lows.
During market holidays or early close days — liquidity is thin; spreads widen.
Pre-trade checklist
Time window OK? (London / NY open or high liquidity event)
Major news? (No significant release within ±30 mins)
Higher timeframe structure clear? (H4 or Daily trend / range)
Trade idea defined (entry, stop, target) — use price levels, not indicators only.
Risk per trade ≤ planned % of account (see position sizing).
Reward : Risk ≥ your minimum (e.g., 1.5–3:1 depending on edge).
Catastrophic stop capability confirmed (can you absorb worst-case slippage?)
Exit rules set (profit-taking scale or full exit)
Trade logged in journal immediately after (reason, setup, time, bias)
Position sizing — exact worked example (step-by-step)
Use a fixed % of equity for risk per trade (commonly 0.5%–2%). Example uses 1% risk.
Assume:
Account size = $10,000.
Risk per trade = 1% of account = $10,000 × 0.01.
We compute digit-by-digit: 10,000 × 0.01 = 100. So maximum $100 risk on this trade.
Generic position-size formula:
Position size (units) = (Account Size × Risk%) ÷ (Stop Distance in price units × Value per price unit per 1 unit)
Always recalc pip/value for cross rates and for instruments (stocks, futures, crypto) — adapt the “value per price unit” accordingly.
Money Management is much more important than a strategy. You should learn Money Management before trying any strategy.
Order types & execution rules
Limit entries at confluence levels (support/resistance + liquidity sweep zone) — better price and less slippage.
Stop orders for breakout entries — use when you want to enter only after momentum confirms.
OCO (One Cancels Other) for scaling / invalidation management — reduces manual errors.
Avoid market entries during major news due to slippage/gap risk, unless your plan accounts for it.
Trade management & exits
Initial target: defined by structure (previous swing, ATR multiples, measured moves).
Scale out: consider taking partial profits at the first reasonable target, let the rest run with a trailing stop.
Stop relocation: only move stop to breakeven after a predefined profit multiple reached (e.g., after +1R or after price clears a new structure). Don’t move stops based on emotion.
If price returns and breaks your entry zone invalidating the setup, exit — the market changed.
Strategy-specific timing tweaks
Trend-following: prefer strong sessions (London/NY) and avoid Asian low-liquidity hours. Enter on retracements that align with higher timeframe trend.
Range / mean-reversion: worst during session opens; best during mid-session lulls, but only if volatility is low and boundaries are clear.
Breakout strategies: require confirmation — e.g., breakout during overlap or accompanied by increased volume / volatility. Avoid breakouts in thin Asian hours.
News scalping: high risk; only for experienced traders with defined entry, strict spread/latency controls, and capital to absorb spikes.
Common mistakes (and how to fix them)
Trading outside your chosen time windows — fix: enforce a trading clock.
Overtrading in chop — fix: increase minimum R:R and wait for clear structure.
Ignoring spreads and liquidity — fix: include spread in stop/target math and avoid thin sessions.
Moving stops prematurely — fix: use rules (e.g., only move after +1R).
Trading news impulsively — fix: have a news plan: either avoid or have a predefined volatility playbook.
Emotional trading (e.g. not closing the position when the price hits stop-loss)
Psychological & routine rules
Trade only when rested and focused.
Limit screen time to your pre-set sessions.
Keep a journal: reason for trade, outcome, lessons. Review weekly.
Daily routine: pre-market scan 30–60 minutes before your active session, post-session journal entry.
FAQ
Q: Can I trade during Asian hours?
A: Yes — but selectively. Prefer JPY pairs, Asia-centric instruments, or strategies built for low volatility.
Q: What if my timeframe and session disagree?
A: Give priority to higher timeframe structure. If H4 / Daily shows trend, trade during active sessions for better fills.
Q: How much should I risk per trade?
A: Conservative traders use 0.5%–1% per trade. More aggressive ones use up to 2%. The key is consistency and drawdown planning.
Focus your trading during high-liquidity windows (London, New York, and their overlap), avoid low-volume and pre-news periods, always validate trades with liquidity + volatility + clear market structure, use strict risk management (e.g., 1% per trade with position sizing), and follow a pre-trade checklist to avoid low-quality setups. Better timing = better edge.
Enjoy!
GBPUSD: Rallies Are Getting Sold, & Dollar Still Has Upper HandEvery time GBPUSD tries to lift its head, it seems to run straight into supply. Zooming out, this chart feels like a classic distribution phase after a strong first-half rally. Fundamentally, that makes sense. Sterling has lost its earlier policy edge, while the dollar continues to benefit from relative growth resilience and sticky US yields. From here, GBPUSD looks more like a corrective bounce inside a bigger bearish structure than the start of a fresh uptrend.
Current Bias
Bearish.
GBPUSD is trading below key trend resistance, and recent upside attempts are being capped. Until price can reclaim and hold above the upper supply zones, rallies look vulnerable to renewed selling.
Key Fundamental Drivers
Bank of England vs Fed divergence fading
Earlier GBP strength was built on the idea that the BoE would be more restrictive for longer. That narrative has weakened. UK inflation has cooled, growth data is soft, and rate cuts are firmly on the table for 2026.
Meanwhile, the Fed is preparing to cut, but at a cautious pace. That keeps US rate differentials from swinging decisively against the dollar.
UK growth fragility
UK activity data continues to point to sluggish growth and a vulnerable consumer. This limits how aggressive the BoE can be, especially compared to a US economy that is slowing but not stalling.
USD demand and risk backdrop
In periods of uncertainty or policy repricing, USD demand remains strong. GBP does not benefit from safe-haven flows and tends to underperform when global risk sentiment wobbles.
Macro Context
Interest rate expectations
Markets are pricing gradual easing from both central banks, but the Fed is seen as more patient and reactive to data. That keeps US yields relatively supported versus the UK.
Economic growth trends
The US is slowing from above-trend levels; the UK is closer to stagnation. That relative growth story still favors USD over GBP.
Geopolitics and policy risk
Trade tensions, election risk, and global policy uncertainty tend to support USD over cyclical currencies like GBP.
Overall, the macro backdrop aligns with a bearish GBPUSD bias rather than a sustained recovery.
Primary Risk to the Trend
The main risk to the bearish view would be:
A sharp deterioration in US data that forces the Fed into faster or deeper rate cuts than currently expected, or
A surprise reacceleration in UK inflation or growth that pushes the BoE into a less-dovish stance.
Either scenario could weaken USD or boost GBP enough to invalidate the downside structure.
Most Critical Upcoming News/Event
US data: CPI, PCE, NFP and Fed speakers, particularly anything that materially shifts rate-cut expectations.
UK data: CPI, labor market reports, GDP updates, and BoE communication confirming or challenging the easing bias.
At the margin, USD-side events remain more influential for direction.
Leader/Lagger Dynamics
GBPUSD is a lagger.
It tends to follow moves in DXY and US yields, rather than lead them.
Cable often confirms broader USD strength or weakness after it shows up first in DXY or pairs like USDJPY.
GBP crosses (such as GBPJPY or EURGBP) can sometimes move first and give early clues for GBPUSD.
Key Levels
Support Levels:
1.3200–1.3180: Near-term support and prior reaction area.
1.3000–1.2950: Major downside magnet if bearish momentum accelerates.
Resistance Levels:
1.3350–1.3400: Key supply zone where recent rallies have stalled.
1.3700–1.3800: Major macro resistance and bearish invalidation area.
Stop Loss (SL):
Above 1.3800 on a daily closing basis, which would signal a structural shift back to GBP strength.
Take Profit (TP):
First target around 1.3200,
Extension toward 1.3000 if USD strength persists and risk sentiment weakens.
Summary: Bias and Watchpoints
GBPUSD remains bearish, both structurally and fundamentally. The BoE is drifting further into an easing cycle while the Fed remains cautious, keeping relative yield support tilted toward the dollar. As long as price stays capped below the 1.3350–1.3400 resistance zone, rallies look like selling opportunities rather than trend reversals.
Key levels to watch are support near 1.3200 and the larger downside target around 1.3000. A daily close above 1.38 would force a reassessment, but until then, Cable appears to be a lagging pair that reflects broader USD strength, not a driver of it.
Velocity Of Money Rolling Over Again!The Real Interpretation
This chart is telling one story:
Money supply growth has massively outpaced real output for decades.
It lines up perfectly with:
Falling real productivity
Stagnant wages
Declining borrower quality
Rising debt-to-GDP
Asset inflation decoupling from fundamentals
The economy shifting from productive borrowing → consumption and asset speculation
You don't fix this with “policy choices.”
You fix it with real wealth creation, which requires creditworthy borrowers — not printing.
Forward-Looking View
Unless:
Productivity rises
Real output accelerates
Borrowers gain real income strength
Capital flows into productive sectors instead of financial games…this ratio won’t materially rise.
That means:
Every new dollar is buying less GDP
Long-term growth potential is fading
More money chasing fewer productive opportunities
More fragility in the credit system
It’s a classic late-cycle fiat symptom.
Here are questions to ask:
If “money creation” creates growth, why is GDP-per-dollar collapsing?
Why did 40 years of money expansion not produce proportional GDP?
If borrowers create loans, where are the new productive borrowers?
Why did QE cause asset inflation but no sustainable GDP boost?
If the system is “fine,” why does each new dollar buy less real output?
Perma Bulls, MMTers, Politicians etc.. can’t answer those without admitting the private-sector engine is weakening.
The less productive output per $ while the markets keep rising & rising will only produce less and less profit per share over time. No matter how much lipstick they put on that pig. Eventually, the economy & markets will CRASH! They always correct themselves in the end.
Perma Bulls have no exit strategy and will go down with the boat!
MMTers will want Gov to borrow and spend EVEN MORE! despite the empirical self-evident fact that print and play doesn't work!
Politicians will borrow and spend even more, claiming they will "STIMULATE THE ECONOMY"
I got all that from just one chart? NO! The entire spectrum of data.
Here is one
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Why Does Ethereum Need a Weekly Close Above $3,100?Why Does Ethereum Need a Weekly Close Above $3,100?
Ethereum is currently trading around $3,035, while the SMA365 sits near $3,100. A weekly close above this level would give ETH investors some breathing room. If ETH can secure a close above the SMA365, we could expect a relief rally toward $3,689, especially considering the uninterrupted decline since the $4,755 top.
On the other hand, the $2,500 zone remains a critical support.
Looking at ETH’s recent price action, this level aligns with a high-volume node on the FRVP, making it a key area of interest. Staying above it supports the bullish scenario — but the fact that ETH hasn’t been able to shift this “high-volume settlement zone” upward for months means it also acts like a magnet.
The white zone on the chart is a strong candidate for the next YTS (New High-Volume Settlement). For ETH to rebuild positive momentum, it needs to trade and settle between $3,350 – $3,450 for a while. In other words, Ethereum must push this liquidity cluster upward by roughly $850–900 (around 38%) — a classic characteristic of bull markets.
In conclusion: purely from a technical perspective, the weekly close at $3,100 is critical.
Above it, the path opens toward $3,600 — below it, there is room to revisit $2,500.
Thank you for reading. If you found this analysis helpful, please consider sharing 🙏
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week, which is still active and in play.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 4221 and a gap below at 4169, as support. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
4221
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4221 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
4250
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4250 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
4284
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4284 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
4320
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4320 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
4361
BEARISH TARGETS
4169
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4169 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
4130
4093
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4093 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
4049
4015
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Santa’s Not the Only One Making a List: How Yours Should LookRemember the Trading Journal article we posted back in January? It’s time to review that.
🎄 The Year-End Ritual Traders Love to Avoid
December is a beautiful time of year — especially if you’re a trader taking stock of a full year of wins, lessons, and the kind of experience you simply can’t get from any textbook.
While most people are making holiday wish lists, you can make something far more valuable: a year-end audit of your own performance.
Before you look into the story of 2026, you should review your story of 2025 — and decide which chapters deserve a sequel.
🧾 1. Start With the Big Picture: Your P&L Story
Traders love to zoom into charts, but this review starts with a wide-angle lens. Open your profit-and-loss statement (the whole thing) and ask yourself what story it tells.
Not: “Did I make money?”
But:
• Where and when did I make money?
• How consistently did I make money?
• Where and when did I lose money?
Was your year a smooth trend or a choppy range?
Did profits arrive steadily in a diversified low-risk manner or in one giant lucky month that’s now carrying the annual narrative on its back?
How many trades on average did you open in any given month? Were you slammed by economic data or actually traded events successfully?
If your P&L looks like Mount Everest followed by a ski slope, that’s a clue. If it looks like a gentle staircase, that’s another.
An honest P&L audit tells you who you actually are as a trader, not who you strive to be.
📆 2. Month-by-Month: Your Market Seasons
Markets have seasons, and so do traders. This is where you break your year into 12 chapters and ask:
• Which months were your strongest?
• Which months were your weakest?
• Did your performance correlate with volatility?
• Did you trade better in calm markets or turbulent ones?
• Did a single macro theme carry your results?
Most traders discover they perform better in certain environments — trending markets, earnings season , AI mania, crypto volatility — and worse in others.
Knowing your seasonality helps you (a) avoid forcing trades in tough conditions and (b) push harder when the market aligns with your natural rhythm.
For example, you don’t trade aggressively in a month where your data says you tend to perform poorly.
📈 3. Where You Actually Traded
Every trader has a version of themselves in their head:
“I trade mostly macro FX,” or “I’m an equities person,” or “I invest in crypto but only real-use cases.”
But your year-end list should reflect actual activity, not self-depiction. Pop open your books and find out:
• Which asset classes did you trade the most?
• Did your biggest wins come from the same place as your biggest losses?
• Did you over-concentrate on a theme (AI leaders)? FX majors? Meme-adjacent microcaps?
• Did diversification help or were you secretly just running one giant tech exposure?
If 80% of your profits came from one market, that’s a strength, but also a dependency. If 80% of your losses came from one market, that’s more of a warning than a lesson.
Knowing where you think and where you sink is the foundation of your 2026 positioning.
💸 4. Identify Your Wins and Pain Points
Every trader has signature wins and signature wounds. Look into yours and try to figure out why they happened.
• Were they disciplined trades?
• Or were they lucky timing in Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , or FX:USDJPY ?
• Were they tied to a setup you can reproduce in 2026?
• Or do they fall under “I shouldn’t count on that again”?
Then look at your largest losses:
• Were they concentrated?
• Repeated?
• Emotional?
• Spread across many small trades or a few oversized ones?
Think of your setbacks as valuable inputs for your 2026 strategy.
🧭 5. Turn Insight Into Strategy for 2026
Now comes the true purpose of the list: How will you position for the new year based on what you learned?
Consider:
• Which asset classes earned the right to your attention in 2026?
• Which ones should you scale down or eliminate?
• How concentrated should you allow your positions to get?
• Are you better as a trend trader, a mean-reverter, a news trader?
• Which months or conditions will you push hardest?
• Where will you intentionally step back?
🎁 The Real Gift of the Year Is Reflection
Santa may have a list of who's naughty and nice, but yours is better because it tells you what kind of trader you've become, and what kind you’re aiming to be.
A year-end audit is among the closest things traders have to compounding wisdom.
You can’t control the 2026 market (especially with a new Fed chair stepping in) — but you can control how prepared you are for it.
And that preparation begins with a list only you can make. Not just of trades and profits, but of patterns.
Make your list. Read it twice. Think about it.
And step into 2026 trading like someone who knows themselves.
Off to you : Are you ready to look back into what you did this year and learn the harsh truths and valuable lessons? Share your thoughts in the comments!
Fundamentals Masterclass: How to Trade CPI, NFP, and FOMCMost traders stare at charts all day, drawing support and resistance, only to get liquidated in seconds when a single news candle hits.
Why? Because Technical Analysis tells you When to enter, but Fundamental Analysis tells you Why the market is moving.
Whether you trade Bitcoin (BTC), Gold (XAUUSD), or Major Pairs, they all bow to one master: The US Economy.
In this guide, we break down the 5 Market Movers that control the charts and how you can trade them without gambling.
1. CPI (Consumer Price Index) – The Inflation Trigger
● What is it? The primary tool Central Banks use to track inflation (the price of goods and services).
● The "Healthy" Zone: The Fed targets 2% to 3% inflation. Anything significantly higher forces them to act.
The Trading Logic:
● High CPI (> Forecast): Inflation is hot. The Fed must raise interest rates to cool it down. Money becomes expensive.
● Low CPI (< Forecast): Inflation is cooling. The Fed might cut rates (Pivot). Money becomes cheap.
Market Reaction:
● Forex: High CPI = Bullish USD (Rates go up).
● Gold & Crypto: High CPI = Bearish (Risk-off assets dump).
● Pro Tip: If CPI comes in lower than expected, expect a violent Bitcoin Pump as
the market prices in a "Fed Pivot."
2. FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) – The Main Event
● What is it? The meeting where the Federal Reserve decides on Interest Rates. This is the most volatile event of the month.
● Current Context: US Rates are hovering around 5.50%.
The Trading Logic:
● Higher Rates: Investors sell risky assets to buy safe US Bonds. Demand for USD skyrockets.
● Rate Cuts: Borrowing becomes cheap. The "Money Printer" turns on.
Market Reaction:
● Hawkish (Rate Hike/Hold): Liquidity dries up. Crypto & Gold Dump .
● Dovish (Rate Cut): Liquidity flows into high-risk assets. Crypto & Gold Moon
.
● Prop Trader Note: Released usually at 1 1:30 PM IST (2:00 PM EST). Spreads
widen massively. Do not hold tight stops during the speech.
3. NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) – The Volatility King
● What is it? A report showing new jobs added in the US (excluding farmers). It
reveals the true health of the labor market.
The "Bad is Good" Paradox:
Traders often get confused here. Why does "Good News" for the economy cause Bitcoin to dump?
● High NFP (More Jobs): Strong economy = The Fed feels confident to keep rates high. This is Bullish USD, but Bearish for Crypto/Gold.
● Low NFP (Fewer Jobs): Weak economy = The Fed might panic and cut rates to save jobs. This anticipation causes Crypto/Gold to Pump.
Market Reaction:
● Data > Forecast: USD📈 | Gold/BTC📉
● Data < Forecast: USD📉 | Gold/BTC📈
4. Unemployment Claims – The Recession Watch
● What is it? A weekly report showing how many people filed for unemployment benefits (Berojgari) for the first time.
● The Logic: This is the inverse of NFP.
Market Reaction:
● Claims Lower than Forecast: Fewer people are jobless (Strong Economy). Good for USD.
● Claims Higher than Forecast: More people are losing jobs (Weak Economy). Bad for USD -> Good for Crypto/Gold (Investors speculate on a bailout).
● Trading Confluence: If NFP is Strong (High) AND Unemployment Claims are Low, you have a "Double Confluence" for a massive US Dollar Long.
5. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) – The Health Score
● What is it? The total value of all goods and services produced. The ultimate economic scorecard.
● Example: India is currently the 5th largest economy based on GDP, attracting global investment into the Rupee.
The Crypto Nuance:
● High GDP: Economy is expanding. Good for stocks, but risks higher interest rates (Choppy for Crypto).
● Low GDP (Recession Fear): If GDP is too low (Negative), panic sets in. A full-blown recession can cause everything (Stocks, Crypto, and sometimes Gold) to dump initially as investors rush to cash.
● The Sweet Spot: We want a "Soft Landing"—Growth slowing down just enough to cut rates, but not enough to crash the economy.
Summary: The Trader’s Cheat Sheet
Save this table. It tells you exactly how the DXY (Dollar) moves, and how Crypto/Gold react inversely.
Final Advice:
News candles seek liquidity. They often fake out in one direction before ripping in the other.
Don't gamble on the numbers. Wait for the reaction, wait for the spread to normalize, and trade the trend.
Tags:
#Education #FundamentalAnalysis #CryptoTrading #Forex #CPI #NFP #FOMC #Mubite #EconomicCalendar
IBEX 35 Hits Historic LevelIBEX 35 Hits Historic Levels, Facing the Challenge of Winning Back Retail Investors
Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
01/12/2025
The IBEX 35 has officially returned to territory unseen since 2007. The Spanish benchmark is trading at historic highs and has established itself in 2025 as the best-performing stock index in Europe, surprisingly outperforming major U.S. benchmarks. Over the past three years, its returns have doubled the average of Wall Street, driven by a combination of corporate strength and a domestic economy that continues to outpace the eurozone.
In this context, Juan Flames, CEO of BME, sends a clear message: the Spanish market is doing well, but complacency is not an option. “We need to win back retail investors, and for that, we must return to the spirit of the 1990s,” he notes. During that period, 38% of privatizations were financed by small investors, fueling an unprecedented cycle of stock market growth.
A Solid Market… but with Pending Challenges
The IBEX’s strong performance is backed by fundamentals. Spanish companies are contributing decisively: expanding profits and offering a dividend yield of 4.2%, well above the European average. At the same time, Spain’s economy is growing faster than the eurozone in 2024 and is expected to do so again in 2025.
However, as Flames pointed out, Spain still faces structural challenges. More listed companies and deeper markets are needed. After a peak in IPOs in 2020, activity slowed noticeably. BME is now addressing this through reforms inspired by the White Paper, which proposes 56 measures to modernize the capital markets. Key initiatives include:
BME Easy Access, a new segment that simplifies IPO processes after decades of stagnation.
Reduced brokerage fees, encouraging new investors to enter the market.
Spanish traders have long sought these changes, as U.S. markets are often more cost-effective, offering higher daily trading volumes and a wider variety of companies. By reinforcing both capital supply and demand, and focusing on bringing retail investors back to a market reminiscent of the 1990s—where international access was more limited—Spain aligns with the European initiative to create a “pan-European savings and investment account.”
Similar strategies can be seen elsewhere: the London Stock Exchange consolidates trading volumes to prevent dilution into international markets, while emerging U.S. regional exchanges aim to reduce costs for companies compared to major indices like Nasdaq or NYSE. This regionalist approach seems increasingly popular.
Technical Analysis: Impeccably Bullish Trend
Technically, the IBEX 35 shows one of the cleanest uptrends in recent years. Breaking 16,500 points confirmed a new upward leg, projecting the index toward its next major challenge: 17,000 points, now the main psychological and technical resistance.
Meanwhile, moving averages continue to act as dynamic support. Key levels to watch: 16,144 points (50-day moving average) and 15,755.98 points (200-day moving average). With a bullish opening above 16,300, the index appears set to retest the mid-November highs. The RSI currently sits in a neutral zone at 56.61%, while the MACD is recovering into positive territory, with the histogram beginning a bullish phase. The ActivTrades Europe Market Pulse signals market neutrality with a gradual increase in risk, indicating institutional entries ahead of the year-end rally typical for this season.
With banks and energy stocks driving market momentum, the IBEX maintains a structure of higher highs and higher lows, supporting the potential for further upside if immediate resistance is surpassed.
Conclusion
Spain is experiencing an unusually favorable stock market environment. Prices are rising, macroeconomic conditions are supportive, and companies are posting strong figures. Yet the real challenge lies beyond the charts: attracting more companies to list and bringing retail investors back—key elements to consolidate the Spanish market as a genuine alternative for financing and savings.
If this balance is achieved, the outlook for the IBEX 35 could prove even more promising than its historic highs.
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.
Yen Flexes as Dollar Wobbles, Traders Ramp Up Rate-Hike BetsThe yen came into Monday looking calm… and then proceeded to bench-press the dollar.
The FX:USDJPY pair slid under ¥155, hitting a session low of ¥154.65, after BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda dropped one of the most powerful phrases in global FX:
“We will weigh the pros and cons of tightening.”
In Tokyo-speak, that’s basically suggesting “rate hike incoming!”
The greenback instantly shed over 100 pips (every day trader’s dream), a half-percent haircut that reminded traders just how exquisitely sensitive the yen is to hints of policy change after 30 years of ultra-loose money.
The next day, however, was a bit different. Early Tuesday morning, the pair gained back about half of what it lost the day before. Still, some things to note about Monday's slide:
It wasn’t just FX that reacted. The yen’s surge:
Knocked the Nikkei FX:JPN225 down 2%,
Pushed Japanese government bond yields to 17-year highs,
And forced traders to reprice Japan’s entire risk landscape in real time.
🕰️ The Market Has Been Waiting for This Moment
FX traders have been staring at the FX:USDJPY for months, waiting for a sign — any sign — that Japan was finally ready to pivot. In the meantime, officials have made a sport out of verbal interventions:
“We are watching FX moves with urgency.”
“We will not tolerate excessive yen weakness.”
“We have tools, and we are not afraid to use them.”
Translation: Stop shorting the yen, it stresses us out.
With Ueda openly weighing a rate hike at the December 19 Bank of Japan meeting, traders are scrambling to unwind one of the most crowded trades in global macro: the “short yen” position.
A country that’s really truly reluctant to raise rates is suddenly hinting at liftoff — or at least a step towards it.
📉 Dollar Wobbles as Macro Crosswinds Build
While Japan is drifting away from negative-rate territory, the US dollar faces a catalyst-packed December that could amplify or counter the yen’s breakout.
Four major US data releases stand between now and the BoJ’s meeting:
Dec 5: Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (PCE)
Dec 10: CPI inflation report
Dec 10: Fed interest-rate decision
Dec 16: Nonfarm payrolls (US jobs report)
If the Fed so much as hums a dovish note, yen strength could accelerate fast.
If Powell surprises with a hawkish tone, the dollar may find a floor.
Either way, this is the first time in years that both sides of the dollar-yen have meaningful rate catalysts.
🔄 A Trend Reversal in the Making?
Big macro traders — the same funds that spent the last year squeezing every drop out of the yen carry trade — are taking profits, reducing leverage, and even tiptoeing into long-yen bets.
When one of the world’s great one-way trades starts wobbling, liquidity thins, and volatility spikes.
This is precisely the environment where this volatile beast can swing 100 pips before your coffee cools.
And if Japan genuinely signals the start of a tightening cycle? Carry unwinds can get violent.
One central bank hint today can become a multi-month trend tomorrow.
🧭 So What Happens Next?
The yen’s flex this week may be just the opening act.
Everything now hinges on:
BoJ clarity on Dec 19
How soft (or not) US inflation comes in
Whether the Fed’s tone shifts on Dec 10
And how the labor market behaves into year-end
Watch the economic calendar and get ready for action. FX volatility is back on the menu.
Now that it’s happening, everyone’s asking the same question:
We’ll leave it to you : Was this a one-day pop — or the start of the yen’s long-awaited comeback tour? Share your views in the comments!
COST - Retail Powerhouse In Ideal HTF PositionShallow compressive action has printed contracting Bollinger Bands.
Notice that the BBW - Bollinger Band Width is similar to the previous correction before breakout.
In lower time frame the significantly sized slump has whipsawed through support and wedge trendline to become a bullish engulf:
This event looks likely to be the 8,9 and 10 slump following the Wyckoff Creek of Schematic 1.
And so I think this bullish wedge can also be considered to be a Wyckoff Creek.
Also similar to the Wyckoff schematic, the Creek comes after a long corrective phase - Costco has been in a choppy sideways correction for about a year.
Costco has a very strong trending history and this sideways passage appears to be building pressure for a breakout into the next major wave up.
I am in position already and have more to buy if it pulls back to support @ $932.29 - from there I will just hold.
So I am giving this ideal technical entry to TradingView 👍.
That said DYOR .
This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any trading decisions.
NVDA vs AVGO: The Battle for the AI Throne Has Begun⚡A New Leader Emerges in the Semiconductors
For years, NVDA was the undisputed titan — the gravitational center of the semiconductor universe.
But now, the geometry tells a different story.
THE CHARTS 📐
Both charts use the same natural scaling:
1° of time = $1 of price per unit.
And here’s the critical observation:
NVDA has broken beneath its 1° angle.
AVGO has recaptured and accelerated above its 1° angle.
AVGO has already made new all-time highs.
During a semiconductor correction.
While SMH was down.
While the S&P 500 retraced.
The real question still remains however, are we still in the early innings of the AI Boom?
SMH — The Semiconductor Supercycle Update
The Structure That Defines the AI Era🏛️
The 2023–2027 channel is the master structure for this entire semiconductor cycle.
SMH bounced precisely where the primary and secondary angles intersect.
🚀 Market Knots — Speed & Acceleration Confirm the Turn
Speed found support precisely at the median line around 126 Market Knots — the natural mid-energy band where major long-term advances restart.
Acceleration appears to have:
🔻spiked,
📉bottomed, and
is now curling upward.
Poised to turn positive
The measurements point to a weekly bottom and another wave higher in this semiconductor cycle fueled by AI growth.
The Leadership Rotation🏅 (The Baton Moment)
AVGO is emerging as the structural leader of the AI supercycle.
It has already demonstrated exceptional strength:
holding its 1° angle, breaking into new all-time highs, and accelerating while the rest of the semiconductor sector underperformed.
This behavior is not random.
It reflects Broadcom’s unique position at the infrastructure core of AI — the networking, switching, optical, and custom ASIC layer that becomes the bottleneck after GPUs.
As the semiconductor supercycle builds, AVGO steps forward as the defining leader of the AI boom
SPX to Money Supply WARNING!If the charts aren’t showing bubble setups, I’m not going to invent them. I post what the data shows. So please don’t shoot the messenger when I say GTFO & STFO.
And just to keep the facts straight:
Brokerage, stock, and crypto accounts are not part of M2.
Why does M2 matter?
It’s the actual spendable money in the economy.
When M2 grows faster than real output (as it did in 2021), price pressure builds.
The economy runs on liquidity.
Retail, goods, services all of it requires money you can actually spend, not paper gains in a trading account.
When the S&P 500 disconnects massively from M2 — like during the dot-com bubble — revenue and profit growth can’t keep pace. Valuations expand purely on speculation, not on real, organic fundamentals. That’s how multiples stretch and bubbles form.
The problem? Most retail traders have no idea this is happening. They’re trading with their hair on fire, following cute social-media stories dressed up as “analysis,” using strategies that have never been tested in real markets.
And that’s exactly how bubbles are fed:
big players sell into retail euphoria, and retail ends up holding the bag of schitt!
Buy when stocks are cheap, not at all-time highs in euphoria land.
"Price is what you payt, VALUE is what you get!"
THANK YOU for getting me to 5,000 followers! 🙏🔥
Let’s keep climbing.
If you enjoy the work:
👉 Drop a solid comment
Let’s push it to 6,000 and keep building a community grounded in truth, not hype.
Internal vs External Liquidity: The Skill Nobody Actually MasterMost traders think they understand liquidity…
They mark equal highs, equal lows, and call it a day.
But let me tell you something real:
Knowing liquidity exists is NOT the skill.
Knowing WHICH liquidity matters right now is the real edge.
That’s the difference between:
✔ catching continuations
✔ catching reversals
✔ avoiding trap entries
✔ timing precision entries
✔ and actually staying in profitable moves
Most traders lose because they don’t understand the hierarchy of liquidity.
Let me break this down the way nobody online does:
⸻
🔥 1. Internal Liquidity = Fuel for Continuation
This is the liquidity inside the active range.
It sits between swing points, inside consolidation, above minor highs, below short-term lows.
Internal liquidity gets taken when:
• Market is in trend
• Price is compressing
• Price is building inducement
• Algorithms are collecting “fuel” before delivery
When internal gets swept, DO NOT expect a reversal.
Expect a continuation into the next external pool.
This is why most traders get faked out:
They see a sweep and scream “reversal!”
But they’re reacting to internal liquidity — not the real turning point.
⸻
🔥🔥 2. External Liquidity = The Real Reversal Zones
External liquidity sits at the RANGE BOUNDARIES:
• The major swing high
• The major swing low
• The extreme points of the structure
These are the levels that actually SHIFT trend, cause deep pullbacks, or start major legs.
This is where smart money:
✔ Clears the crowd
✔ Triggers stops
✔ Closes positions
✔ Repositions
✔ Begins delivery in the opposite direction
External liquidity is the turning point.
Internal liquidity is just the build-up.
If you can’t distinguish the two, every reversal will feel random to you.
⸻
🔥🔥🔥 3. Here’s the Rule Nobody Teaches:
If price sweeps internal → expect continuation.
If price sweeps external → expect correction or reversal.
But here’s where MOST traders fail:
They don’t know which one they’re looking at.
If you think a reversal is starting but you’re still inside the range…
You’re not trading a reversal.
You’re trading hopium.
⸻
🔥🔥🔥🔥 4. How Smart Money Chooses Which Liquidity to Target First
This is where your real edge comes in.
Smart money asks ONE question:
“Which pool unlocks the next delivery path?”
If the next objective is above → they’ll sweep internal lows to build power.
If the next objective is below → they’ll sweep internal highs to induce buyers.
Smart money is always targeting what unlocks:
✨ the cleanest path
✨ the imbalanced leg
✨ the untouched zone
✨ the unmitigated order block
✨ the next HTF objective
You think the sweep is the entry.
They see the sweep as the setup.
⸻
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 5. Here’s the TRUTH:
Internal liquidity fuels the move.
External liquidity flips the move.
If you master this one skill, your whole trading shifts.
Your confidence shifts.
Your timing shifts.
Your strike rate shifts.
You stop chasing noise.
You stop guessing bottoms.
You stop guessing tops.
You start reading intention — not reacting to candles.
Most of the trading world knows liquidity.
Almost nobody knows when liquidity actually matters.
That’s the part the textbooks don’t teach.
That’s the part the YouTubers don’t show.
That’s why most traders stay confused for years.
Internal liquidity gets you in —
External liquidity gets you paid.
Master the difference and you’ll trade with precision most people only dream of.
Stocks Stage Comeback in Time for Thanksgiving. What's Behind ItIt’s Thanksgiving, and you know what that means. “Hey, sweety, why don't you come here and let us know how your high-beta stocks are doing. Here’s our little investor.”
And for once, the answer isn’t followed by a sigh. Stock traders are heading into the holiday with something they haven’t had in a while — gains and optimism.
Major US indices just logged their fourth straight day of gains, with the Nasdaq Composite on pace for its best Thanksgiving week since 2008.
That’s right: the last time the Nasdaq had a holiday rally this strong, we were still explaining what a “smartphone” was.
This year, it’s all about two things:
A dovish Federal Reserve
An AI trade that refuses to sit idle
Let’s carve into what’s driving this seasonal sprint.
📈 AI Fears Cool Off
The market has spent the past month wrestling with fears that AI stocks were puffing up like an overfilled Thanksgiving parade balloon. But this week, the anxiety faded.
Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , CoreWeave NASDAQ:CRWV , Dell NYSE:DELL , and even suddenly-revived AI-adjacent names have found solid footing again. The Nasdaq TVC:IXIC jumped 0.8% on Wednesday, outpacing the other indices and reminding investors that tech still runs this town.
What changed?
No new AI scandals and bubble talk
No shocking spending pivots (thanks, Meta NASDAQ:META )
No high-profile shorts announcing apocalyptic bets (thanks, Burry)
And some great data-center guidance in recent earnings ( thanks, Dell NYSE:DELL )
Even Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , which has been under the most scrutiny , clawed back 1.4% Wednesday — though the stock is still well off its early-month peak.
Investors are clearly reshuffling their AI winners, but the trade lives on. A shakeout doesn’t mean a shutdown.
🟩 Breadth Returns: Not Just a Tech Party
All but two sectors of the S&P 500 SP:SPX moved higher Wednesday, pushing the broader index up 0.7%.
The Dow TVC:DJI matched that performance, rising 315 points, with both indices tracking for their best Thanksgiving week since 2012.
Even the defensive sectors joined in. When utilities and consumer staples start partying with semiconductors and mega-cap tech, you know sentiment’s shifting.
🏦 The Fed Is Quietly Setting the Table
Just a week ago, the odds of a December rate cut were a coin toss — roughly 50/50 according to CME FedWatch. Today, that probability has surged to more than 80%.
What a cut could mean to traders:
Cheaper borrowing
Higher valuations
Softer financial conditions
And fewer landmines in the months ahead
Nothing gets markets into the holiday spirit like the smell of potential rate cuts.
This week is also shortened — stock markets are closed Thursday and shut early Friday (ref: the economic calendar ). With fewer trading hours to log, investors often front-load their optimism or their panic. This time, it’s mostly optimism.
🔄 Nvidia Isn’t Gone — It’s Just Taking a Breath
Nvidia’s stock remains sharply lower from its early November highs, but Wednesday’s move showed there’s still life in the AI leader.
Meta NASDAQ:META , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOGL , and select cloud names have picked up flows as traders diversify their AI bets.
And while Nvidia might not be the main driver of the rally this week (spoiler alert: it’s Google ), its ability to stay positive helped prevent any emotional selling from spreading through tech.
🧁 The Warm, Lightly-Toasted Takeaway
If you were expecting a quiet, uneventful lead-in to the holidays — the market apparently had other plans.
Here’s where we’re at now:
A four-day winning streak,
A revival in Big Tech,
A broad rally across sectors,
And Fed expectations suddenly swinging toward cuts.
Off to you : Will it last through December? With inflation, rate decision, and jobs data, will AI stocks keep marching higher or retreat? Share your view in the comments and, to our US folks, enjoy Thanksgiving!
XAUUSD: Bearish Order Flow Confirmed? Shorting the Supply Zone.After updating the All-Time High (ATH), Gold performed a micro-sweep of liquidity from the previous ATH. This move was engineered via a Supply Zone . Following the sweep, this zone was mitigated, initiating a bearish order flow that broke the 4H structure to the downside (BOS 4H).
After the structural break, the price began approaching a second Supply Zone . A reversal is possible from this area to continue the bearish order flow, targeting an update of the structural low at $4000 . A full break of this low would indicate a high probability of a deeper correction on the higher timeframe.
✅ Short Setup Conditions:
Aside from the mitigation of the Supply Zone, I am looking for a reversal reaction from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level . The price must find acceptance below this level upon reaching it.
❌ Invalidation:
The short scenario is invalidated if the 61.8% level is broken. In that case, Gold will face further resistance at the 78.6% Fib level , but forming a short setup there is less probable than from the 61.8%.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The principles and conditions for forming the manipulation zones I show in this trade idea are detailed in my educational publication, which was chosen by TradingView for the "Editor's Picks" category and received a huge amount of positive feedback from this insightful trading community. To better understand the logic I've used here and the general principles of price movement in most markets from the perspective of institutional capital, I highly recommend checking out this guide if you haven't already. 👇
P.S. This is not a prediction of the exact price direction. It is a description of high-probability setups that become valid only if specific conditions are met when the price reaches the marked POI. If the conditions are not met, the setups are invalid. No setup has a 100% success rate, so if you decide to use this trade idea, always apply a stop-loss and proper risk management. Trade smart.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
If you found this analysis helpful, support it with a Boost! 🚀
Have a question or your own view on this idea? Share it in the comments. 💬
► Follow me on TradingView for timely updates on THIS idea (entry, targets & live trade management) and not to miss my next detailed breakdown.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ETHUSD H1 | Bullish Bounce Off Key SupportMomentum: Bullish
Price is currently above the ichimoku cloud.
Buy entry: 2,867.08
- Pullback support
- 61.8% Fib retracement
- 100% Fib projection
Stop Loss: 2,777.16
- Overlap support
Take Profit: 2,972.69
- Swing high resistance
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Candlestick Patterns That Actually MatterTraders often approach candlestick patterns by memorizing long lists instead of understanding the behaviour behind them. Crypto moves aggressively, hunts liquidity, and punishes textbook interpretations unless they occur at meaningful locations. The goal is not pattern collection. The goal is to recognize the few formations that consistently reveal intention when aligned with structure, liquidity, and context.
Engulfing Candles, Displacement and Control
What it shows: a clear shift where one side fully absorbs the other. This is participation, not random volatility.
When it matters: after impulses, at support or resistance, during liquidity sweeps, or when confirming a trend shift.
Why it’s valuable: engulfing candles often provide the first structural evidence that control has changed hands.
Rejection Wicks, Liquidity Taken, Pressure Reverses
What it shows: price tapped a high or low, triggered stops, and immediately met stronger opposing orders. This is how sweeps appear on a single candle.
When it matters: at equal highs/lows, session extremes, failed breakouts, and major swing points.
Why it’s valuable: wicks expose trapped traders and reveal where true supply or demand sits. They are early indicators of shifting intent.
Inside and Outside Bars, Compression and Expansion
Inside Bar: compression, tighter ranges, and reduced volatility ahead of expansion.
Outside Bar: immediate expansion where one side overwhelms both directions.
When they matter: at key levels before breakouts, during corrective legs, at consolidation boundaries, and after liquidity events.
Why they’re valuable: inside bars show preparation; outside bars show decision.
Treat these signals as behavioural information. Their value increases when combined with higher timeframe structure, liquidity mapping, momentum, volume, and session context.
How to Trade with MACD in TradingViewMaster the MACD indicator using TradingView’s charting tools in this comprehensive tutorial from Optimus Futures.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a momentum and trend-following indicator that helps traders identify shifts in market direction and momentum strength. It measures the relationship between two exponential moving averages (EMAs) to reveal when momentum may be building or fading.
What You’ll Learn:
Understanding MACD as a tool that tracks the convergence and divergence of moving averages
How the MACD line is calculated as the difference between the 12-period and 26-period EMAs
How the Signal line acts as a 9-period EMA of the MACD line and serves as a trigger for potential buy or sell signals
How the Histogram visualizes the distance between the MACD line and Signal line to show momentum strength
Recognizing bullish and bearish crossovers between the MACD and Signal lines
How to interpret the Zero Line as a momentum baseline — above zero suggests an uptrend, below zero suggests a downtrend
Identifying bullish and bearish divergences between MACD and price to anticipate potential reversals
Why crossovers and divergences should be confirmed with price action and trend structure, not used in isolation
How to add MACD to a TradingView chart via the Indicators menu
Understanding the default settings (12, 26, 9) and how adjusting them changes responsiveness
Practical examples on the E-mini S&P 500 futures chart to illustrate MACD signals in real market conditions
Applying MACD across multiple timeframes — daily, weekly, or intraday — for higher-confidence confirmations
This tutorial will benefit futures traders, swing traders, and technical analysts who want to incorporate MACD into their trading process.
The concepts covered may help you identify trend changes, momentum shifts, and potential entry or exit points across different markets and timeframes.
Learn more about futures trading with TradingView:
optimusfutures.com
Disclaimer
There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary.
This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only.
Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools — not forecasting instruments.
NZDUSD downtrend continuation below falling resistanceThe NZDUSD currency pair continues to display a bearish outlook, in line with the prevailing downward trend. Recent price action suggests a corrective pullback, potentially setting up for another move lower if resistance holds.
Key Level: 0.5675
This zone, previously a consolidation area, now acts as a significant resistance level.
Bearish Scenario (rejection at 0.5675):
A failed test and rejection at 0.5675 would likely resume the bearish momentum.
Downside targets include:
0.5565 – Initial support
0.5540 – Intermediate support
0.5520 – Longer-term support level
Bullish Scenario (breakout above 0.5675):
A confirmed breakout and daily close above 0.5675 would invalidate the bearish setup.
In that case, potential upside resistance levels are:
0.5695 – First resistance
0.5715 – Further upside target
Conclusion
NZDUSD remains under bearish pressure, with the 0.5675 level acting as a key inflection point. As long as price remains below this level, the bias favours further downside. Traders should watch for price confirmation around that level to assess the next move.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.






















