Looking at the graph, we can see a very high-quality inverted head and shoulders pattern, because the second top made a way higher top than the first top. To add to that, the volume is decreasing rapidly, meaning we are very near the next bottom. This would be definitive for the ETF, because if this ETF increases in price, than the house prices would drop. This...
Based on the 2013 publication of the Journal of Technical Analysis, first article, "Analyzing Gaps for Profitable Trading Strategies," I am noticing that you could have used these following criteria to create 5 profitable trades this year on DRV.
A larger green candles,
red candle on day before
Green candle crosses the 10-day moving average
Mortgage rates are penciling-in to be around 10% on a first mortgage note by Jan/Feb - so everyone with a couple of brain cells to rub together knows what that will do to real estate prices.
Some good things will come out of this - like the Gen Z's in the market will get a chance to become homeowners, but in trading terms, this is a very good opportunity. ...
In the past 50 days, the Direxion Daily Real Estate Bear 3X ETF (DRV) has experienced a surge of over 90%. As a leveraged ETF corresponding to the inverse of the Housing Market, this hardly comes as a surprise. In the past two weeks alone, the Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates by another 75 basis points in its ongoing...
The fund invests in swap agreements, futures contracts, short positions or other financial instruments that, in combination, provide inverse or short leveraged exposure to the index equal to at least 80% of its net assets (plus borrowing for investment purposes). The index is provided by S&P Dow Jones Indices (the “index provider”) and includes securities of...
Real Estate starting to feel the pain in China as Evergrande implodes - How much longer before the contagion spreads? Weeks? Months? Clock is ticking.
DRV x3 Real Estate short ETF has a couple nice Gaps to fill at ~$12 and ~$20.
Stoch and RSI appear to be confirming a potential bottom/turn back up here on the weekly. AO also predicting a move up sooner than...
-FED has been started to reduce its balance sheet since June 10th
This translates to less mortgage-backed securities owned by FED => lower stock price on certain commercial/reit companies.
-To understand further about FED's QE, here is the information.
-However, there is no guarantee that the FED won't...
FED actions in late May has disrupted the entire commercial rental and REIT market by overly purchasing mortgage-backed securities.
With this action, more and more people rushed into investing in real estate and FOMO-ly bought commercial real estate stocks and pushed them to All-time-high.
At that point, commercial renting was a zero-risk investment as FED was...
DRV tracks the inverse of commercial REITs. Ever since the pandemic began several companies have instituted work from home policies.
A large majority of companies will either default or give up on their leases. On the other side hotels & malls are not seeing much traffic either.
All this points to a drastic drop in returns for REITs.
Daily RSI has...
Please check my other DRV posts for basic analysis.
FED keeps rates at 0%. Which means no further interest expense can be reduced for rental businesses.
-DRV is having a bullish trend, trading above moving averages. However, less than EMA 200.
-DRV broke-out $26 trend resistance which means DRV can be trading higher.
-Squeeze + RSI are signaling...
-Retails are suffering financially (as expected), some will file for bankruptcy: JC Penny.
-FED is buying corporate ETFs (mostly debt). So REIT or Retails debt are some of the options. This will reduce the rate of filing for bankruptcy and help businesses to deal with debts.
-States are opening, however, worries about 2nd wave of Covid-19 will discourage...
Last week's drop was due to FED bail-out, investor's speculations on economy reopening, and the small business loans was distributed.
3 key factors that will lead to this week rally:
-The economy is open, however, only 25-50% capacity, which means, businesses will consider their profit by shopping for cheap rental.
-Malls are not coming back soon. Rental spaces...