The idea for my week- Monday, waiting for another rise in price and before failure. What are your thoughts ?
If The Yen gets beyond 83.90, then this will confirm the beginning of a bear market for the USD as it did back in 2008 when the Yen rose; and it would justify the structure of this wave analysis. I am also taken into consideration that a strong Yen is bad for the Japanese economy and for the Nikkei, being that Japan is an export-based economy. This should,...
Visual signs of a new bear market brewing ahead is spilling over into Yen repatriation or safe haven flows. This may send the dollar down in the beginning as well, but the dollar is also a safe haven currency. Eventually, the US Dollar will rise also.... so the idea goes.
According to my post two months ago, my short was triggered at 85.49 due to the gap down. I extended my red channel much deeper to find out where my target will be roughly and estimated to be around 81-82. And it did. I exited at 81.19 which is also the price that i will turn bullish. So Yen trust has revisited previous support after 2723 days in outer space....
I am playing a guessing game, please advice me if i am wrong. If yen trust has bottom based on my previous monthly chart and starting to consolidate like what is shown now (descending triangle) moving forward, then pple will have confidence in JPY soon and as a result JPY will strengthen, no?
return to channel? divergence in the lower oscillator is not confirmed
Continued to make weekly closing high. Note 40 week MA starting to turn up.
Yen has broken out from downtrend (green line) and has completed a move to target 1 from inverse head and shoulders pattern. Pullback expected to retest breakout at 83.
FXY had a great run during 2007 - 2009 crisis (credit: Ciovacco Capital Management www.ciovaccocapital.com) and now is showing sign of trend change - all over again this time?!
In my previous FXY chart, I detailed the weekly/monthly time at mode trend signals and with Tim West's help I noticed that the downtrend was expiring during August. After seeing the reaction to this event, I conclude that both FXE and FXY are reversing the longterm downtrend, judging by post pattern behavior after forming a clear bottom. This currently eludes...
There's a monthly time at mode expiration in this instrument coming next month. It's possible to see a reaction as carry trades get unwound, but it's not clear at what price yet. The extreme target is not reached, but the time at mode one has been exceeded, and heading for 2x the projected range soon. I think the dollar rally is about to hit its expiration date,...
"If false breakdown markets will shake more"