Rising interest rates have resulted in a nearly 20% pullback in the popular institutional homebuilder's ETF ITB in 2018. Investors has rightly predicted that the rising interest cycle with the added cost of financing debt, and the aging US population would begin to slow demand for purchase of new single family homes in the United States. But a with every...
Watching this for months after seeing a big drop earlier in the year. Showing some bearish signals, ITB has been consolidating lately, trading between narrow bollinger band limits. I honestly think the support line is above $37.49. It's very hard to tell if ITB will break the support line, it all depends on future housing data releases. I've been monitoring...
"Existing home sales continue to weaken and new home sales are not doing enough. Affordability issues are looming larger over the market." Housing Market Review (August, 2018) - Worsening Affordability Issues Add to Weakening Data drduru.com
Alongside bearish trading action in builder stocks, July’s housing market data may have delivered confirmation of persistent investor fears. "Housing Market Review – A Wobbly Edifice As Builders Break Down And Data Weaken" drduru.com $ITB $DHI $MTH $KBH $PHM $TOL $TPH #housingmarket #housingwatch #homebuilders #stockmarket #economy #gdp
So with the FED hiking rates another .25 bps in June (96% odds as of right now) I am making a bearish trade in the home builder ETF. I have never traded through a rising rate environment so.......take it with a grain of salt. I am buying the 40 put in October and selling the 36 put in October for $1.12 This is a defined risk trade for a debit (not really the...
Housing Market Review (May, 2018) - A Fresh Flicker of Life As Sentiment Turns Without A Change in Data. The housing data continue to plod along but the market for home builder stocks is suddenly warming up all over again. drduru.com $ITB $CCS $DHI $PHM $LEN $FPH $LGIH $MTH $XHB
Home builder stocks are starting to diverge as housing data decelerates. Investors are showing interesting preferences even as all builders continue to tell similar stories. For more.... Housing Market Review (April, 2018) - Dissonance: Decelerating Housing Data and Diverging Home Builder Stocks drduru.com $ITB $PHM $LEN $KBH #housingwatch #stockmarket
ITB has been running since Feb 2017. Recent swing to upside on light volume. Other indicators rolling over so longs should look to protect profits. Shorts have a favorable risk reward ratio of 1:5. Worth a look. If you like our analysis, please follow us.
Turning very bearish on the home builders. Increasing interest rates will increase costs. Delinquencies are rising and creditors are contracting. Most activity in mortgage applications is either refi - due from recent fall in 30-year, or existing home sales. Builders are falling behind and sales goals will not be met.