A double bottom with an upside divergence in the MACD is taking shape. might be tad early but TBT is the leveraged ETF on the 20 year Treasury. Bought 10 contracts of the 33.5 puts expiring MAY 24 AT .09C BIT SPECULATIVE WE'LL SEE.
METRICS:
Max Loss on Setup: $422
Max Profit on Setup: $178
Break Even Versus Spot: 35.22 versus 35.37
Debit Paid to Spread Width Ratio: 70.3%
Delta: 50.2
Theta: .6
Notes: Tomorrow's the last day on which 2018 tax losses can be realized, so I can foresee some additional, last minute dumpage, followed by the Big Dicks buying the dip on Wednesday to position long...
It always amazes me how the technicals always seems to match up beautifully with these economic news days.
Suffice to say if this line holds tomorrow rates and the market will will rally. If the line is broken I expect the market
to break support as well.
Daily TBT shows bull flag and seller exhaustion. Weekly bullish cloud ahead.
All major EMAs supporting the move higher, which means rates going to explode much higher. Bullish dollar $DXY and bearish gold $XAUUSD and miners $GDXJ $GDX
TBT Broke out of long term consolidation. I have been watching this for a while( See Previous post). Treasuries are falling and yields are rising.
This is something very important to watch.
Latest jobs report 9/7 /18 confirms STRONG wage growth at almost 3 %
Fed 's credibility is being confirmed by the marketplace.
as they are on track to raise rates 2 more times in 2018.
Dec.2018 just got priced in as almost a done deal, baring the unforeseen.
BUY TBT, 3 X Bear ETF ,
and look to add to position on any pullback
Highly Leveraged play on higher...
... for a 2.62/contract debit.
Metrics:
Max Profit on Setup: $138/contract
Max Loss on Setup: $262/contract
Break Even: 35.62 vs. 35.69 spot
Debit Paid/Spread Width Ratio: 65.5%
Notes: Basically, shorting treasury strength with the inverse instrument ... . Here, I'll look to take profit somewhat quickly, since I've only got one roll opportunity with this setup....
Hold tight for this ride, there's a variety of reasons why bond prices will stagnate or fall.
Interest rates should rise and be higher than they are now; "should" certainly isn't a reason for something to happen, but there are scant monetary policy maneuverings available for the Fed to keep interest rates low and by extension, prop the stock market up much...
Caught a little IV increase in TBT and looking to deploy smaller amounts of capital here.
Trade Setup:
-1 TBT Apr 21 35/40/40/45 Iron Fly (Synthetic Straddle) @ $2.52
DTE: 51
Max Win: $252
Max Loss: $248
Break evens: 37.48 & 42.52
Trade Management: Profit target is 25% or ~$63. Small % of portfolio is used here so the first management I will do is a full loser....
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TBT
