BTC still on track for bull run till 2025Hi folks
For the last 6 months BTC has been in a sideways consolidaiton.
I believe that this consolidation was nesessary, and people where frontrunning the halving, and with the ETF people just got excited.
The market will always move to hurt the most people.
Sideways consolidation leaves those that bought BTC at higher levels in an uncomfortable position, sitting at a loss and looking at red all day, to pack their bags and accept their loss.
This is normal in every btc cycle.
Right now the RSI on the 5 day has moved above the moving average, and right now is retesting the MA - this is probably going to be your last chance to enter the final stages of this cycles bull market.
We have been making equal lows on the RSI since 4 July, showing exhaution of the bearish sentiment.
Price is currently consolidating at the previous cycle highs, while the MACD had crossed and printing green candles. This is what the start of a bull run looks like.
Coinciding with the US elections and the USA and most world central banks intending to print money (see my last post), i am fairly confident on a bullish close to the year.
Note: We are still testing the downward sloping resistance since we hit 73k
We have not made a higher high, but on the smaller time frames we are making higher lows and higher highs.
With the RSI wanting to retest its MA, we should expect some volatility - some drops in price before this higher time frame analysis plays out.
It would not suprise me for a flash crash to 60k to happen, only to be bought up and a break out of the price downward sloping trendline to be broken
NFA
Market insights
Bitcoin and the global money supplyI have been speaking about the money supply recently, and how i believe that all risk assets (all assets) are a function of how much money is in the system a.k.a the global liquidity
The yellow line shows the Global money Supply, and the white and blue candles are the bitcoin price.
This has been a very interesting cycle, as everyone front-ran the halving and FOMO'd into the btc ETFs.
BTC Ran up to 73000, and then went into a 6 month consolidation.
The USD was slow to put on the breaks in COVID, but then ramped up the money printing to overcorrect is sluggish reaction to covid.
Now that we have had a moderately calm year for money printing/etc - by that i mean the US gov has held the interest rate and only JUST announced its intention to put its foot back on the gas and to quantitaive easing/money printing - the breakout that you see here is indicative of an extended bull market for risk on assets - and Bitcoin.
This coincides with the US elections, and the bitcoin 4 year halving effect that i believe has not come to its end of its 2024-2025 bull market
BTCbtc halvings and ATH breakouts.
Godspeed..
9/15/2024 UPDATE
Bitcoin consolidates at $1 Trillion Dollar Market cap currently at $1,186,671,949,244.
Current Price : 60,042.72
+ $51,752.34 (633%) since BTC's 3rd Halving.
- $8,883.37 (-13%) since BTC's 4th Halving.
+$4829.95 (7%) new HIGH since BTC's 4th Halving.
- $8713.45 (13%) since BTC's previous ATH.
Entering 2021---> Beginning of a Super Cycle?
First Decade - The Decade of Emergence
Second Decade - The Decade of Adoption
Godspeed..
BITCOIN BLUEPRINT 2.0 - MACRO MATRIXThis is a refined / updated version of my old 'BITCOIN BLUEPRINT' Macro Matrix.
I struggle with finding the right display format for the charts on publishing tradingview ideas. Here is the chart organised so everything is visible.
We are now seeing bitcoin story develop from its negative bias, into a positive one. ETFs have now been approved, aswell as other crypto ETFs. We are 150days post halvening, coming to a potential end for this period and start to move up into the upper Powerlaw band (Red).
The important note is to realise we have 365days+ of Bull Run ahead of us. Anywhere around Mid Sept 2025 could potentially signal a Peak in Price, which precedes approx 1year in declining price actin (Bear Drop).
All time highs & Lows by Cycle:
CYCLE 1: Bull High = $31.50 / Bear Low = $1.85
CYCLE 2 : Bull High = $1140 / Bear Low = $145.5
CYCLE 3 : Bull high = $19170 / Bear Low = $3148
CYCLE 4 : Bull high = $68944 / Bear Low = $15495
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Potential Forecasted Targets:
CYCLE 5 :
Bull High = $300000 - $325000
Bear Low = $58000 - $65000
CYCLE 6:
Bull High = $1000000 - 1150000
Bear Low = $300000 - $325000
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*Note - This is not financial advice, just finding from my own analysis work. The future targets based on forcasts will become more clear once previous cycles have completed. Therefore its best to focus on the next cycle, rather than jumping ahead one cycle. Seeing MIL:1M in CYCLE 6 is exciting!
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CONTEXT:
As noted prior - we are seeing dveelopments in the BTC space. Most notably, the programability of BTC. With projects such as Fractal Bitcoin, TAPROOT, RUNES, BRC20, CAT20, OPNET, OPCAT and many many others paves the way for a fresh narrative other than digital gold.
Increased Global liquidity (BTC)In anticipation of the approach of increased Global liquidity⌛️
📝No one doubts that we will have a rate cut in a week. This is a signal that the economy is slowing down and that new infusions will soon be needed. The central banks of other countries are in a similar situation.
🤔Now the question is where does the liquidity go and who is the biggest beneficiary?
💡On the "sensitivity" chart, it is noticeable that gold is in second place, and #Bitcoin is in first place. And so, if you want to hedge the risks of possible shocks, and you know that infusions will come to save the situation, your best solution is to have digital gold
Will Bitcoin Repeat? A Theory!I really like using Heikin-Ashi candles, the MACD, and Stochastic RSI to try to find potential tops or bottoms. This can be done on any time frame, but remember: the lower the time frame, the smaller the impact, and vice versa. I used this approach to almost call the bottom in October 2022 and early 2023 (You'll find a Post on that on my X Account)
Theory:
The current market behavior seems eerily similar to the last bull run. During that time, after Bitcoin hit its first "top," it then sharply corrected by about 50%. Bitcoin has already had a 30% correction at the moment, but it may fall another 20%, meaning a price of about $34,000.
Following that correction, in the last bull market, Bitcoin received a strong push to the upside, having roughly 135% growth that, in the end, marked the cycle top. If Bitcoin corrects to $34,000 now and repeats the move, a 135% rise would place it at about $79,000.
When looking at the MACD during the previous bull market, after the first sell off, the averages began to squeeze before taking the final bearish cross. In this process, the Stochastic RSI deep-cooled off, which helped it gather strength for one last push to the upside.
Again, that's only a theory, but it's something worth keeping a close watch on. Nothing is guaranteed.
Bitcoin Bearish Fractal Jun 2014The most unwanted outcome for Bitcoin's price action in the next few weeks would be similar to what happened in June 2014. The price managed to get back above the 200-day SMA twice, but eventually fell below it again, starting a bear market in 2014. I’ll be closely monitoring the 200-day SMA line in the coming weeks. Bitcoin should not close below it again!
Bitcoin Bearish Fractal Dec 2019The current 6-month consolidation of Bitcoin's chart looks similar to the one in December 2019. The price closed above the 200-day SMA twice, then fell back below it. Bitcoin should not close below the 200-day SMA again in the next few weeks to invalidate this fractal. If it does, then I will be very bearish.
We haven't seen BTC ATH yetIf you don't count in fiat currency, we haven't seen the 2021 high exceeded yet (In relation to the stock market)
📝The current picture in Technical analysis, against the positive fundamentals, will ruin the traders who will soon start shorting Bitcoin. But that's normal, their liquidations are fuel for further growth.
📝Everything is going according to plan, and by the end of this year, we will see a real ATH, as I said before in the quoted posts.
💡Also, the RSI clearly shows that we will have a 3-wave cycle according to my 3-wave model, which I discussed before.
Bitcoin Bullish Fractal May 2016The most bullish scenario for Bitcoin can be compared to the price action in May 2016. After completing its 5-month correction, the price returned to retest the ATH a few times, forming a VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern), and then shot up in the following days. Let’s see how strong it will be.
Bitcoin Bullish Scenario Nov 2016Since Bitcoin has been showing strength in the last few weeks, let's look at a possible scenario similar to the price action in November 2016. This suggests that Bitcoin's volatility will slow down and the price will gradually rise in the next few weeks. However, if Bitcoin falls back below the 200-day SMA, this idea will be invalidated.
BTC, Let's keep it simple shall weAh, the crypto jungle, where even the bears like to dance! 🕺 So, here we are, staring at a mature bear flag on the daily chart like it's that ex you thought you were over, but they just keep showing up. And if this bad boy breaks down decisively, we're careening straight into the “Oh No Zone” with a potential target between 45k and 48.8k.
And what's this? A Death Cross? Sounds like a rejected name for a 90s metal band, but here it is, grimly reminding us that sentiment is shifting faster than a squirrel on a sugar rush. 🐿️
Now, while retail investors are nowhere to be seen (probably hiding under their beds), the whales are out there doing what they do best—hoarding like it’s Black Friday at a crypto sale. 🐳 And of course, rate cuts are looming like your landlord when rent's due, which in crypto-speak means bearish first, bullish later. It's like being told your rollercoaster ride is delayed but, hey, there's a free ice cream at the end! 🎢🍦
Meanwhile, Gold is out there flexing at an all-time high, giving Bitcoin the cold shoulder like it's a high school crush that just found a new date to the prom. And Bitcoin dominance? Still strutting its stuff, leaving altcoins to suffer in silence.
Over in the ETH/BTC corner, things are looking as bearish as my last attempt at a diet—good intentions, but no follow-through.
Good News? Who Cares!: Good news hits the market and... nothing happens. At this point, it’s like shouting into the void: “BTC ETF occurred! ETH ETF occurred! Halving occurred!” And the market’s like, “Meh.”
🇺🇸 All eyes are on the US Presidency coming up in 2 months. Until then, it's like waiting for your blind date to arrive—highly uncertain and probably not going to end well.
Yet, here I am, my degenerate self, telling you this might just be the perfect recipe for a great bull market! 🍲
But let's be real—experience tell me that caution is advised.
That's it, that's the idea - Good night






















