Horrible stock to trade ... defying all technicals here , but thats what you get in rising wedge patterns. I've seen this move happen with Google and Target from 2020-2022 ; that didn't end pretty and neither will this...
All its going to take is a bad earnings and a few stock down grades.
I wouldn't play any contracts shorter then August EXP
Multiple rejections across this trend line, likely to reject again here.
Expecting a 40+ point pullback.
Target is 440. Stop is a daily close above 500.
Everything is in the chart.. classic bull flag setup on $ulta. Financials are great, EPS is solid, basically recession-proof at the moment.
CALLS idea - wait til retest of 410-420 and grab $500 calls 2 months out.
PUTS idea - wait til top of channel is hit then grab 430 puts 1 month out.
This is not financial advice, just for fun!
This stock has been a true out-performer.
W pattern noted.
If price does not proceed much higher than where it is now, this could be a Alternate Shark. The last W for Ulta was a NEN star which reversed at the 1.272 of the entire structure.
Price is above a Rectangle and possible targets in green type.
EPS estimates last quarter was $5.70 a share which ULTA...
good strength relative and excellent recent earnings.
On the chart, price has risen persistently and consistently
from a triple bottom in late September through October
The stay-at-home economy is over. Beauty and so cosmetics are back.
ULTA should benefit from holiday buying and gifting
Looking at long time frame charts. ULTA is now at its
all time high....
Time to short ULTA. It has been going up since early November and RSI overbought on weekly and daily TF. Rising wedge as well as megaphone patterns are also noticeable.
The PEAD projected a Neutral outlook for $ULTA after a Negative over reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift C with an expected accuracy of 100%.
Price is at support and has met T1 of the crooked W pattern which looks like a bearish Nen-Star. Price is sitting on target 1. T2 is listed below. T3 would take price to the lower support line of the Rectangle.
Valley 2 of the harmonic structure is lower than valley 1.
Price is also in a large Rectangle which is a neutral pattern until a trendline is...
New ATH today. No resistance overhead to speak of.
Possible Bearish Butterfly.
If this is a Butterfly, the last leg ends at the 1,272. The upward retracement is strict on the Butterfly and it must hit the .786 or very close to it.
The retracement leg (AB) up one nailed the .786.
It is a crooked W. There is a bullish Butterfly as well.
Butterflies can be found...
With other retailers reporting a tightening of consumer spending and rising energy and housing costs beginning to bite Ulta is demonstrating a megaphone top and approaching trendline resistance.
Trading on a PE Of 22 for a retail operation all off the good news may already be priced in and any slip on earnings will see it severely punished.
Watch for a reaction...
The price action might break out of the rectangle pattern.
A price action above 404.00 supports such upside potential.
Further trend support above 416.00
Crossing above 423.00 might target 442.00.
Crossing below 410.00 will be the first sign of pending weakness.
A Market Darling.
ULTA is still above the .236 (bottom trendline of the Rectangle) of the impulse wave up.
Possible Double top unless price breaks out of the Rectangle and climbs to Targets in white above the Rectangle.
Targets for a break to the downside are in orange below the Rectangle.
Some would trade inside the horizontal trading channel.
It appears this...
$ULTA - Consumer Cyclical | Specialty Retail
1yr of ranging price action, coupled with higher lows in RS where lows on price remains flat
latest ER beats by 0.71, beats on revs, comps of +14.4%; guides FY23 EPS and revs above consensus, raises FY23 comp guidance
remarkable
