$VXX double bttom on MACD, MFI, and Priceappears to be a double bottom on the Money Flow Index, share price and the macd. Hoping for a bullish crossover on the macd
Trade ideas
Amadeo Ratio 5/13/2016This ratio has a very hard time trying to go up. It seems that it's eventually going to test the purple line. What happened last week or two look like a dead cat bounce.
VXX - Low volume market will crush the VIX!VXX may be good short if S&P 500 sells off into $2000 level.
Volume usually drops from end of May to end of July and that crushes the VIX.
Would you sell volatility in May?Anyhow, market seems very comfortable to offer into VXX. I said few days ago, one Swallow is not enough.
I only have one question: Will it make a lower low???
As if it can not, 4H EWO divergence will work out, and next spike above 17,21 will be succesful.
Strategy: in case of a confirmed higher low on 4H, buy 0,5 unit at 16,45 and 1 more unit above 17,21
Key is 17,21! (daily Kijun + 4H Kumo and 100WMA)
VXX daily - mixed bag - 5/7/2016no clear direction yet, but I will start to buy if ever it closes above the blue lines, as that would be a higher high after two higher lows (and then use the blue lines as stop).
SOLD VXX JUNE 17TH SHORT PUT... for a $94/contract credit.
Unfortunately, I forgot to jot down the metrics here.
I wanted to ladder out spreads (see Post Below), but it didn't look like those we're going to be filled, so I opted for the more flexible naked, which I can roll down and out for duration and credit if I have to. Doing that with the spreads is a bit more cumbersome.
As with all VIX/VIX derivatives, I look to money, take, run on a pop, but am shooting for 50% max credit here if I can get it.
One swallow doesn't make a summer...Nor does one spike mean an immediate reversal in a trend. But it means beginning of something!
- For example on the weekly chart last friday volatility spike means Heikin-Ashi candle body shrink = further loss of bearish momentum
- Daily builds bullish divergences further.
- Price tested Kijun once. Kijun is lower: 17,275 is the key level to watch. A break and close above Kijun can accelerate buying (volatility spike) upto 20+
- ATR is still very low
I doubt we'l see a lower low. I think next test of daily Kijun will be succesful, and we'll see VXX going higher.
I still hold my 0,5 unit long.
Amadeo Ratio 4/29/2016Watch the lines. Use this ratio with benevolence. Keep in mind that Doing is not always better than Non-doing.
VXX daily - breaking out - 4/29/2016VXX finally breaking out after a big RSI divergence. I want to see a higher low to confirm the breakout next week.
Long Volitility?If this is becoming 3 circle of (3) then the next few days should be some of the most volatile in years. Long to 44 but cut your losses if it falls to 19. So you are risking 3.71 loss for a gain of 22.
Respect volatility! Positive divergences in a supressed market.First of all, you have to realise how low the volatility of volatility is! It is visible from daily ATR. (Can I call this Gamma?)
Weekly:
- We already saw two blow ups in volatility this year, but again Ichimoku of the VXX ETF is still bearish. Upper key area is/will be 27,50-29,50
- Heikin-Ashi is bearish, but we may see a higher low this week. We have to check it again on friday close. Meanwhile pls note the positive divergence being built in haDelta!
Price reached key resistance at15,50
- EWO is bearish, but it has also been building a positive divergence.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is bearish, but Kijun is dropping lower. First reversal indication would come with a close above trendline and Tenkan, confirmation and volatility spike when Kijun is crossed too.
- Heikin-Ashi is noisy. Small doji like candles in a row. haDelta? -> positive divergence, but still hesitating ard zero line.
- EWO is bearish, with some positive divergence.
- Key levels for a reversal and for a counter long setup: 16,75 / 18,00 / 21
Conclusion: we still have time before a proper buy signal emerges, but where to start bottom fishing in Volatility if not here, with so many bullish divergencies on the charts?
Buy small, and buy more in case you see a firm Heikin-Ashi reversal signal, with price breaking above bearish supports.
Lock&LoadedDisagreement between the indicator and price is called divergence. This is a bullish one.
Amadeo Ratio 4/22/2016The chances of it going down is much greater than the chances of it going up. We need to watch the lines.
NEXT WEEK: VXX SHORT PUT VERTICAL "LADDER"With volatility sticking around these lows, I'm looking at dispersing risk across several expiries of VXX by laddering short put verticals in June, July, and September (unfortunately, there is no August expiry yet) while I continue to work my VXX short call diagonals.
Here's what I'm looking at now in the monthlies:
VXX June 12/15 short put vertical ($105/contract at the mid) (the 11 strike's a no-bid)
VXX July 11/14 short put vertical ($90/contract at the mid) (10's a no bid here)
VXX Sept 9/13 short put vertical ($104 contract at the mid)
As with all VIX/VIX derivative product setups, I'll look to take the money and run on these if they move into profit (I'm thinking 50% max, as with any credit spread).
VXX as a spox500 inverted H&S playIf there truly is an inverted head and shoulders pattern developing in the spx500, a play could be puts, but I play vxx, which is 3x shorting the spx500 or a long play on its volatiluty, which is usually down. Last couple days, market is sideways but vxx is climbing and money if flowing out of the spx500 while its price is trying to rise? That tells me that corporate stock buy backs is supporting the price of stocks, during earning season to lessen the effects of poor forward guidance. Watching the IWM for the first step down, while the large caps are trying to hold price with corporate money buying their own stocks. Artificial inflation of stock prices. I say again, and again, it should be illegal. And if we have an inverted HS, then its time to form the right shoulder, down, much like we did Nov 4, 2015.
TRADE IDEA: VXX JUNE 17TH 17/27/37 LONG CALL BUTTERFLYWith low volatility having drained premium not only out of the broader market, but individual underlyings as well, I continue to look at VIX and VXX derivatives to go "long volatility" in lieu of opting for low vol strategies like debit spreads, calendars, and diagonals.
In this particular case, I'm opting to use a long call butterfly given its high risk/return ratio, its relative cheapness to put on, as well as the large profit zone the setup generates.
Here are the metrics for the setup:
Probability of Profit: 54%
Max Profit: $910/contract
Max Risk/Buying Power Effect: $90/contract
Notes: There are a couple of different ways to manage this intratrade, one of which merely involves taking the whole setup off in profit. The alternative way is to strip off the long call vertical portion of the setup (the 17/27 wing) first as price moves up, after which you would look to exit the short call vertical wing (27/37) as VXX mean reverts (as it is want to do).
