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TLT trade ideas

Long TLT/SPY📌 Bonds Explained: What They Are, How They Work & Key Risks Bonds are one of the oldest and most important financial instruments in global markets. They are used by governments, corporations, and institutions to raise money, and by investors to earn income, diversify portfolios, and manage risk. At their core, a bond is a loan: The issuer (borrower) raises capital by selling bonds. The investor (lender) provides money in exchange for periodic interest payments (coupon payments) and the return of the principal (face value) at maturity. 🔹 1. What is a Bond? When you buy a bond, you are lending money to the issuer. The issuer promises: Interest payments (usually fixed) on a regular schedule (semiannual or annual). Repayment of principal (the original investment amount) when the bond matures. 📌 Example: You invest $1,000,000 in a 10-year bond paying 3% annually (semiannual coupons). Every 6 months, you receive $15,000 in interest payments. At the end of 10 years, you (hopefully) receive back your original $1,000,000 principal. 🔹 2. Why Do Companies and Governments Issue Bonds? Governments → Fund infrastructure, social programs, defense, or refinance existing debt. Corporations → Finance expansion, research, acquisitions, or refinance loans. Municipalities → Build schools, hospitals, and roads. Bonds allow issuers to access large pools of capital without giving up ownership (like stocks). 🔹 3. Why Do Investors Buy Bonds? Stable Income: Regular coupon payments. Capital Preservation: Return of principal at maturity (assuming no default). Diversification: Bonds often behave differently from stocks, balancing risk. Hedging Inflation/Interest Rates: Certain bonds (like TIPS) protect against inflation. Relative Safety: High-quality government bonds are considered safe-haven assets. 🔹 4. Key Types of Bonds Government Bonds Issued by sovereign states. Example: U.S. Treasuries, UK Gilts, German Bunds. Generally low risk, lower yields. Corporate Bonds Issued by companies. Higher yields than government bonds but higher risk. Municipal Bonds Issued by local governments or agencies. Often come with tax benefits for investors. High-Yield (Junk) Bonds Issued by lower-credit issuers. Higher potential returns, but much riskier. Inflation-Protected Bonds Coupon/principal linked to inflation. Example: U.S. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities). 🔹 5. Three Main Risks of Investing in Bonds Even though bonds are often seen as “safe,” they carry risks that investors must understand: 1️⃣ Credit Risk (Default Risk) The issuer may fail to pay coupons or repay the principal. Higher with corporate bonds and emerging market government bonds. Mitigated by credit ratings (Moody’s, S&P, Fitch). 📌 Example: If a company defaults, you may lose part or all of your investment. 2️⃣ Interest Rate Risk Bond prices move inversely to interest rates. If rates rise, existing bond prices fall (since new bonds offer better yields). If you sell before maturity, you could face a loss. 📌 Example: You bought a 10-year bond at 3%. A year later, rates rise to 5%. Your bond’s market value falls, because investors prefer newer bonds paying higher coupons. 3️⃣ Inflation Risk (Purchasing Power Risk) Even if you hold the bond to maturity, rising inflation erodes the real value of your returns. A 3% coupon loses attractiveness if inflation rises to 6%. 📌 Example: Your bond pays $30,000 annually, but inflation pushes up costs by $40,000 per year → you are effectively losing purchasing power. 🔹 6. Bonds vs. Stocks Bonds: Debt, fixed income, contractual obligation, lower risk, limited upside. Stocks: Equity ownership, dividends (optional), higher risk, unlimited upside. In a company bankruptcy, bondholders are paid before shareholders. 🔹 7. How Investors Use Bonds in Portfolios Income generation: Retirees and pension funds rely on coupon payments. Diversification: Bonds often rise when stocks fall, reducing portfolio volatility. Risk management: Safe-haven bonds (like Treasuries) act as “insurance” during crises. Speculation: Traders can bet on interest rate moves via bond futures and ETFs. 🔹 8. Bonds vs. Stocks: The TLT–SPY Correlation One of the most widely followed relationships in global markets is the correlation between: TLT → iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (tracks long-dated U.S. Treasury bonds). SPY → SPDR S&P 500 ETF (tracks U.S. equities). 📈 Historical Relationship Over the past two decades, TLT and SPY have often moved in opposite directions. (The Correlation between SPY/TLT often hovers around 0.) Why? When stocks sell off, investors typically seek safety in Treasuries, pushing bond prices up (yields down). This negative correlation makes bonds a powerful diversifier in equity-heavy portfolios (60/40). 📌 Example: 2008 Financial Crisis → SPY plunged ~37%, while long-dated Treasuries (TLT) surged as investors fled to safety. March 2020 COVID Crash → SPY fell ~34% peak-to-trough, TLT spiked ~20% as the Fed cut rates and investors piled into Treasuries. 🐂 Strategy #1 (MA): Buy SPY when TLT crosses below the 95 MA. Sell SPY when TLT crosses above the 95 MA. 🔄 But the Correlation Can Shift In inflationary environments, bonds and stocks can fall together. 2022 is a perfect example: Inflation spiked → Fed hiked rates aggressively. TLT dropped ~30% (yields surged). SPY also fell ~19%. Both asset classes sold off simultaneously, breaking the hedge. 🐂 Strategy #2 (Re-Balancing): Buy TLT at the close of the seventh last trading day of the month. Sell TLT at the close of the last trading day of the month. Sell TLT short at the close of the month. Cover TLT at the close of the seventh trading day of the month. Higher Returns after rate hikes. 📊 Why This Matters for Investors In normal times: TLT acts as a counterweight to SPY, smoothing portfolio volatility. In inflationary shocks: Both can decline, reducing diversification benefits. Lesson: Don’t assume bonds will always hedge equities — context (inflation, Fed policy, growth cycles) matters. 📌 Practical Uses of the TLT–SPY Correlation Portfolio Diversification A 60/40 portfolio (60% stocks, 40% bonds) relies on the negative correlation. Works best when inflation is low and stable. Risk-On / Risk-Off Gauge If both SPY and TLT rise → markets are calm, liquidity flows into both risk and safety. If SPY falls while TLT rises → classic risk-off move (flight to safety). If both fall → inflation or policy tightening environment (no safe haven). Trading Signals Divergence trades: When SPY rallies but TLT also rallies strongly, it may signal equity rally exhaustion (risk-off brewing). Macro hedge: Long TLT positions can offset downside risk in SPY-heavy portfolios — but only in disinflationary or deflationary shocks. 🔹 9. EWJ–TLT Correlation: Japan Equities vs. U.S. Treasuries EWJ → Tracks Japanese equities (large & mid-cap companies). TLT → Tracks U.S. long-dated Treasuries. Unlike the classic SPY–TLT inverse correlation, the EWJ–TLT relationship is more complex, shaped by: Global risk sentiment (risk-on/risk-off flows). Currency effects (USD/JPY exchange rate). Japan’s ultra-low interest rate environment (BoJ policy). 📈 Historical Tendencies 1️⃣ Risk-Off Periods (Global crises → flight to safety): TLT rallies (U.S. Treasuries bid). EWJ often falls, as Japanese equities are highly cyclical and export-driven. Negative correlation dominates. 📌 Example: 2008 Crisis → TLT surged; EWJ plunged with global equities. 2020 COVID Crash → Same pattern: safety flows to Treasuries, Japanese stocks sold. 2️⃣ Risk-On Periods (Liquidity, global growth optimism): EWJ rallies with global equities. TLT may drift lower (yields rising on stronger growth). Correlation weak to moderately negative. 📌 Example: 2016–2018: Global growth rebound → EWJ rose, TLT fell as U.S. yields climbed. 3️⃣ Currency Channel (USD/JPY) Japanese equities (EWJ) are sensitive to the yen. A stronger USD/JPY (weaker yen) boosts exporters (good for EWJ). TLT rallies often coincide with USD weakness (yields down, dollar down), which can hurt Japanese exporters, adding another layer of inverse correlation. 🔄 Shifts Over Time Long-term average correlation: Mildly negative (similar to SPY–TLT, but weaker). During inflation shocks (2022): Correlation turned positive at times: TLT fell as U.S. yields spiked. EWJ also struggled due to global tightening & yen weakness. Both moved down together, breaking the hedge. 📊 Why EWJ–TLT Matters Global Diversification Check: Investors often think Japanese equities diversify U.S. equities, but they can be just as cyclical. Adding TLT creates the real hedge. Risk-Off Signal: When both EWJ and TLT rise, it may indicate global liquidity easing (rare but bullish). Currency Overlay: Always factor USD/JPY → sometimes EWJ’s move is more about currency than equities. 🐂 Strategy #3 (EWJ): When Japanese stocks are above their 150-day moving average, go long TLT (US long-term Treasury). When the average is below the 150-day average, stay out. The correlation between TLT and EWJ can serve as a breath signal. 📌 Conclusion: Bonds as the Foundation of Finance Bonds are the backbone of the global financial system, connecting borrowers (governments, corporations) with lenders (investors). ✅ Bonds provide regular income and capital preservation. ✅ They carry risks: credit, interest rate, and inflation. ✅ They are essential for diversification and risk management. ✅The TLT–SPY correlation is dynamic. Historically negative, providing diversification. In inflationary shocks (like 2022), the correlation turns positive, breaking the hedge. ✅ EWJ–TLT is a Global Macro Hedge, But Fragile. Usually inverse: Risk-off = TLT up, EWJ down. Sometimes aligned: Inflation shocks or synchronized global tightening → both down. Currency filter essential: USD/JPY often mediates the relationship. This makes EWJ–TLT correlation a powerful barometer of global macro regimes: Disinflationary slowdowns → Strong hedge. Inflationary crises → Hedge breaks. For investors, understanding bonds is crucial, even if you primarily trade equities or commodities, because bond yields influence everything: stock valuations, mortgage rates, and even currency markets.
NASDAQ:TLTEducation
by GabrielAmadeusLau
Why Now is the Best Time to Load Up on T-BillsIn 2025, investors have a unique opportunity to capitalize on high yields from Treasury Bills (T-Bills) as interest rates hover at their highest levels in years. With indications that the Federal Reserve may soon start cutting rates, now could be the ideal time to invest in T-Bills through the TLT ETF. This article explores why investing in T-Bills now could reap significant returns over the next decade. Key Points: Highest Interest Rates in Years: Current interest rates on T-Bills are elevated, offering attractive yields for investors. Historical data shows that such high yield opportunities are rare and may not be seen again for years. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The Federal Reserve has signaled potential rate cuts due to concerns about job market stability and inflation trends. Market expectations suggest that rate cuts may begin later in 2025, which could reduce yields on T-Bills in the future. Strategic Advantage of T-Bills: Investing now allows investors to lock in current high yields before potential rate cuts reduce returns. T-Bills offer a safe investment with guaranteed returns, backed by the U.S. government, making them a low-risk option. Why TLT ETF? The TLT ETF provides exposure to long-term Treasury securities, making it an excellent vehicle for capitalizing on current high yields. The advantages of using an ETF include ease of trading and diversification. Conclusion: With interest rates at a peak and expectations of future rate cuts, now is a strategic time to invest in T-Bills via the TLT ETF. By taking advantage of the current high yields, investors can secure returns that may not be available again for years to come. TVC:DXY NASDAQ:MSTR TVC:GOLD TVC:SILVER BITSTAMP:BTCUSD $VNIDIA NASDAQ:TSLA VANTAGE:SP500
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by CassianDrake
$TLT Monthly Uptrend Signaled for 16 MonthsThe simple trend-following and trend-timing and trend-targeting method I call "Time@Mode" is generating a new signal as of this week. The signal is created when the range this month is up by more than last month's range, which is called a "Range Expansion Month". The mode becomes the measuring launchpad for the move and the range around the mode is the measuring stick. Projecting up to nearly 103 by January 2027 is a greater than 15% gain from current levels. We need to see the entire month of September hold this gain, but it is acceptable to take a trade prior to the bar (Month of September) closing. The risk is a move back under the mode. Tim 9/9/2025 10:54AM EST
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by timwest
1
TLT weekly bullish engulfing amid increasing unemployment reportBullish argument: Double monthly volume spike at approx 85$ support level Weekly double bottom Friday daily pump amid increasing unemployment rate report Closed weekly bullish engulfing or bullish three line strike signaling beginning of a potential uptrend Bearish arguments: Bonds are known to move super slow percentage wise. Conclusion: The weekly bullish engulfing amid unemployment rate uptick most likely signal the beginning of a bull market for bonds as central banks will react to this news by starting to lower interest rates to stimulate house purchases and manufactured goods that comes allow with owning houses which will increase job demand.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by traderxchart
TLT LongThe broader market structure on the TLT 1D chart shows a clear downtrend, followed by a Change of Character (CHoCH) when price broke above the lower high near $86.50, signaling a potential trend reversal. This CHoCH is further validated by a strong push off the demand zone around $83–$84, where buyers stepped in with conviction, leading to a series of higher lows and an emerging bullish structure. The demand zones below, especially the wide green area near $82.68–$84, are strong; price previously reversed sharply from this level, indicating institutional interest. In contrast, the supply zones between $88–$93 appear layered and moderately strong, especially around $88.20 and $92.70, where price previously sold off. However, the lack of deep wicks and clean rejections in the lower supply zones suggests that sellers may be weakening. Currently, price is pushing upward toward the $88–$89 zone with bullish momentum. Within the marked region, price is climbing steadily after forming a minor higher low. If it can break above $88.20 convincingly, the next logical target would be the supply near $92.70–$93. A minor pullback to the $85.50–$86 zone could offer a buying opportunity if demand holds. The trade bias is bullish with an expected continuation toward $92.70, assuming momentum holds. Invalidation of this outlook would occur if price breaks back below $84.00, which would indicate a failed breakout and potential return to the broader bearish trend. Momentum currently favors buyers, with higher closes and strong-bodied candles confirming upward intent.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by ProSignalai
1
TLT short - warning signs from JapanTLT is making 20-day lows (red candles in the main chart), while continuing to make 20-week lows on a weekly chart (not shown). Meanwhile, looking at a proxy of net buying/selling (bottom panel), we have flipped from buying to selling. Looking at Japanese bond yields, 10-year JGBs (JP10Y) just broke out of tight range. This is the third attempt to trade above ~1.59% recently, which we saw earlier today. As Japan's is one of the world's leading overseas investors, this is an obvious warning sign for bonds globally. There is good risk/reward to short bonds here, with a stop-loss if the price closes at a 20-day high. If a 20-day high is made, the candles will change color from red to green. Both indicators (Breakout Trend and Buying/Selling Proxy) are available for free on TradingView.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by TiltFolio
TLT ShortTLT 1H Technical Analysis 📈 Outlook: The current setup suggests a bearish continuation scenario: A corrective move toward the 85.20–85.60 supply. Rejection from this area confirms continuation of the downtrend. Target: 83.20–83.60, where resting liquidity and untested demand reside. This sequence follows a classic liquidity sweep + supply mitigation + continuation pattern. Unless price breaks convincingly above 85.80, the bearish outlook remains intact. 🔼 Supply Zones (Bearish Liquidity Layers): Primary Zone: 85.20–85.60 This is the most immediate area of interest, aligning closely with the 50% equilibrium level of the last bearish impulse (~85.84). Price is likely to reject from here as it also coincides with a previously unmitigated supply block and market inefficiency. Stacked Supply Above: 86.40–88.00 Should price break the lower supply, these zones will come into play. However, the current structure suggests strong probability of rejection before reaching these levels. 🔽 Demand Zones (Target Areas): First Demand: 83.20–83.60 This is your marked initial downside target. It represents the next logical draw on liquidity and aligns with prior accumulation and support structure. It’s likely to act as a temporary reaction zone or the next entry point for accumulation. Deeper Demand Zone: 82.40–82.80 Marked by your secondary border, this range offers higher time-frame confluence and could act as the final sweep zone if the 83s fail to hold.
NASDAQ:TLTShort
by ProSignalai
Bottom in for bonds, flight to safety trade coming soon $100+If we look at the chart of TLT, you can see that we're forming a bottoming reversal pattern. We had a spike low down to $83 back to the middle of May and have now reclaimed the structure. I think that move marked the bottom. I think it's very likely that bonds spike in the near future, if they can make it over the $92 resistance level, then I think price will see continuation and likely break the pattern finding the first resistance at that $101 level. That said, I think this is the start of a larger move higher in bonds that will take us all the way up to the top resistance levels over the course of the next few years before the move is done and we start the long term trend in rates higher.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
How Will Uncle Sam Strike Back? – U.S. Treasuries on the Edge📉 How Will Uncle Sam Strike Back? – U.S. Treasuries on the Edge After covering leveraged loans ( BKLN ), junk bonds ( HYG ), and investment-grade corporates ( LQD ), we now focus on the most important piece of the U.S. credit puzzle: Treasuries. Specifically, the long end of the curve — tracked by TLT . 📊 What the Chart Shows Left Panel (3D Chart) • All-time highs in Feb 2020 at $179.80 • Long-term trendline going back to 2004 • Critical support was broken in 2022 — a structural breakdown Right Panel (8H Chart) • Clear descending channel since 2020 • Price has rejected from the channel top multiple times • Recent bounces off the lower channel suggest a potential final flush 🧠 What Happened in 2022? (can't blame Trump for that...) This wasn’t politics — it was policy. • The Fed's fastest hiking cycle in decades • Liquidity evaporated • Long-duration bonds were abandoned • The key trendline that had held for years was finally lost That line — once support — is now resistance. 📐 My Technical Expectation I expect one final slide before a reversal. • Channel base sits at ~$76.32 • My projection targets $71.30 or even $68 • That would mark new all-time lows for TLT 🟡 After that? I expect a macro reversal , targeting: • 🔼 $101 – mid-channel reversion • 🔼 $112–115 – former support zone (2019–2022), now resistance 🔍 Macro Context This chart isn’t just about price. It reflects how markets are pricing confidence in U.S. debt . And right now? That confidence is shaky . With Trump turning 'orange' and taking it out against almost everyone else: China but also his allies(EU, Canada, Japan, etc ) 🔄 Recap of the Series So Far: • BKLN – record leveraged loan outflows • HYG – junk bonds bounced at historical support • LQD – investment grade bonds holding steady • TLT – U.S. Treasuries under pressure, and possibly breaking down 📌 Next up? 🟧 CRYPTOCAP:BTC Because when the world begins to question Treasuries , the search for alternative stores of value begins. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙 ps. wait for the next posts...they might be epic!
NASDAQ:TLT
by FX_Professor
4
TLT is currently in the Wyckoff accumulation phaseBased on the provided weekly and daily charts for the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), here is a Wyckoff analysis and a potential trading strategy using a diagonal option spread. ### **Wyckoff Analysis of TLT** **Weekly Chart:** The weekly chart for TLT appears to be in the early stages of a potential **accumulation phase**. Here's a breakdown of the key price action in the context of Wyckoff principles: * **Selling Climax (SC):** The sharp sell-off culminating in the low around $83.30 can be interpreted as a Selling Climax. This is where the downward momentum peaks as panicked investors sell heavily. * **Automatic Rally (AR):** Following the SC, the price bounced to form a high. This rally is largely technical in nature as short-covering and bargain hunting come into the market. This helps to define the upper boundary of a potential trading range. * **Secondary Test (ST):** The subsequent decline from the AR to retest the area of the SC low is a Secondary Test. Ideally, this test occurs on lower volume than the SC, which would indicate diminishing selling pressure. From the chart, it appears there was a retest of the lows. Currently, the price action on the weekly chart suggests that TLT is in **Phase B** of accumulation. This phase is characterized by the "building of a cause" where the "smart money" is accumulating positions. Price action in Phase B can be volatile as it moves between the support established by the SC and the resistance of the AR. **Daily Chart:** The daily chart provides a more granular view and supports the accumulation thesis from the weekly chart. The recent price action on the daily chart shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, which can be interpreted as a **Sign of Strength (SOS)** within the larger accumulation structure. This suggests that demand is starting to overcome supply. ### **Trading TLT with a Bullish Diagonal Call Spread** Given the analysis that TLT is in a potential accumulation phase, a bullish long-term outlook is appropriate. A bullish diagonal call spread is a suitable strategy to capitalize on a potential gradual price increase while also benefiting from time decay. This strategy is also known as a "Poor Man's Covered Call" and involves: * **Buying a longer-dated, in-the-money (ITM) or at-the-money (ATM) call option.** This acts as a surrogate for owning the underlying ETF. * **Selling a shorter-dated, out-of-the-money (OTM) call option.** The premium received from selling this call reduces the cost of the long call and generates income. **How to structure the trade:** 1. **Long Call Selection:** * **Expiration:** Choose a longer-dated expiration, for instance, 4-6 months out, to give the accumulation and subsequent markup phase time to develop. * **Strike Price:** Select a strike price that is in-the-money or close to the current price of TLT (around $87.39). An ITM call will have a higher delta, meaning it will move more in line with the price of TLT. 2. **Short Call Selection:** * **Expiration:** Select a shorter-dated expiration, typically 30-45 days out. This allows for more frequent income generation as you can "roll" the short call to the next month as it expires. * **Strike Price:** Choose a strike price that is out-of-the-money. A good starting point would be a strike near a resistance level. Looking at the daily chart, a potential near-term resistance level might be around the $90-$92 area. **Example Trade (Illustrative Purposes Only):** * **Buy to open:** 1 TLT call option with an expiration 6 months from now and a strike price of $85. * **Sell to open:** 1 TLT call option with an expiration in 30 days and a strike price of $90. **Trade Management:** * **If TLT rallies towards the short call strike ($90):** You can choose to close the entire spread for a profit or roll the short call up and out to a higher strike and a later expiration to continue collecting premium. * **If TLT trades sideways:** The short call will lose value due to time decay (theta), and you can potentially buy it back for a lower price than you sold it for, or let it expire worthless. You can then sell another short call for the following month. * **If TLT declines:** The value of your long call will decrease, but this will be partially offset by the premium received from the short call. The risk is limited to the initial net debit paid to establish the position. > **Disclaimer:** This information is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Options trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. It is crucial to conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by KhanhC.Hoang
TLT long into Sept. 26th?I had TLT on my calendar (from the very EXPERIMENTAL dowsing work that I do) for yesterday and today from readings I did on 5/22 & 5/18. Being that it was looking like a swing low in this date window, I checked this morning, & from the very experimental work that I do, I get that it's heading to around $100. I had a prior post suggesting a larger bottom in place, and this appears to have been accurate. The date for exit (VERY EXPERIMENTAL & for journaling purposes) I get is Sept. 26th. *** NOTE *** I post things here as a method of journaling ideas. If it aligns with YOUR OWN WORK, great. I'm pretty sure everyone has their good and bad streaks no matter what method they use. So, I had a rough patch after finding out my incredibly special companion kitty was dying. Did I know att this would affect my work? No! I tried to stay "normal" ( for me ;) ). Did I learn something? Of course, & in the future I will allow myself more downtime to come back to balance. No one really knows what's going on in my life, but I guess this work is probably more subject than other methods to emotional or energetic disruptions. I always clear my energy, but in certain circumstances it may be better to just chill. I'm learning as I go. If you have any advice on making this work better, please lmk.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by JenRz
$TLT Rising Channel or Bear Flag?Is it time to invest in NASDAQ:TLT ? It looks positive to me. With inflation cooling down it looks like bond prices could increase, which means rates are lower. We do have a Fed Meeting coming up so there could be more volatility depending on the “Feds” messaging. I am taking this long today with a ½ size position. I will place my stop just “below” yesterdays low of $85.46. I am going long because I see a series of higher lows and higher highs. And I have a well-defined risk level of about 1% to know if I am wrong. If you like this idea, please make it your own. Make sure you follow your trading plan.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by jaxdog