XLP 200MA Trade and Seasonal DefensiveXLP has bounced off the 200MA. The last two moves pushed slightly through it, like this one, and the subsequent ramp was at least to the previous high (Feb-Mar) if not higher (Jan). The 2018 price/action below the MA shows this stock does take that indicator into account.
The recovery looks to be finishing the final sub-wave of W3. March shows a slight pullback, so entering at 57 with a 1% stop (56.45) and a target of 59 (Jan 18 ATH) gives an RR of 3.64.
XLP is of course a seasonal defensive.
XLP trade ideas
EPISODE 8/11: US CONSUMER STAPLES:WAVE+CHANNEL&INDICATOR TA(XLP)Episode 8/11 : US (SPX) Sectors Technical Analysis Series - 18th of July 2019
Brief Explanation of the chart:
XLP : Consumer Staples has relatively been one of the worst performing sectors since the last recession. However, recently due to the many uncertainties in the economy(US/CHINA Trade relations), staples have performed quite well (+18.1% for 2019 so far) .
Moreover, this newly found bullish strength can be observed in the Monthly breakout from the RSI/MACD divergence . The potential upside would be in the range of 65-75$ based on Wave 5 variations . There is one major structural support which is marked by the purple square( range of 48-51$) .
Key note from this technical analysis is the growing volume, which can be an indication of several factors. The most outstanding factor to me would be the recent growth in volume . This means that there is an increasing number of investors who are looking for "defensive" stocks that primarily constitute the staples sector. Obviously, this is not a good sign for the future of the economy.
This is just a brief "free" and very detailed analysis. Perhaps in the future I might form a premium group, to whose members I will provide all the details of my research.
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Check my Previous episodes on the US Sectors:
EPISODE 7 : US CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY( XLY) :
EPISODE 6 : US MATERIALS ( XLB ):
Staples doing well, Watch out !Sector rotation is an important part of my studies and October clearly points out to a broken market structure. Consumer staples sector surperformance compare to the index (SP500) does not bold well for the market in general. Not only this sector (along with utilities) did beat the SP500 in October, it actually came out with a positive return. That could means investors are turning to defensive and rate sensitive sector to protect against a downturn in the market.
XLP Bullish Daily SetupXLP lining up bullish on the daily above 54.52 support with 50/200sma prepping golden cross (daily chart) and on the weekly chart 20/50ema golden cross prepping to confirm as well. This move could be extended over the next 1-2 quarters but will take time. As SPY pushes new alltime highs (again) I expect this to help as a minor catalyst to the already bullish setup and accelerate it a bit.
XLP 55 strike PUT, Betting on bearish XLP sector. Hi, my name is Spencer and it's been a long time since I've posted any ideas. I use to be a forex trader for many years and due to time constraints with my great full time job and becoming a dad, I've switched to trading stocks and specifically options.
For this trade, I am entering a short position on XLP by buying the 55$ strike for about 5 dollars per contract. Looking at the S&P500, I believe the overall market is about to struggle with higher interest rates and possibility of higher inflation. With this idea of higher interest rates, I've been watching which sectors have begin to perform the worst such as utilities, REITS, and especially consumer staples. Recently, Phillip morris had a huge sell off which equal to approximately 8% of the index. In addition to tobacco stocks struggling, the overall sector as whole has underperformed and has broken a "lower low" which signals a correction in the index. Currently we are tested the last support area before the index could really fall off the chart. My risk is of course the amount "I pay" for the option which 5$-5.10$ and am expecting atleast 1% move of the stock in order to break even. However, I could see another 10% correction and a possibility of a bearish trend beginning. With this in mind, the risk to reward ratio is about 1:1 and I hope to be making atleast 50% return and ultimately 100% in the longterm. If you are long the stock market, this is a cheap way to hedge the market buy selling one of the weaker sectors as bond yields increase.
Thanks for reading, and leave a comment. Sorry for the sound issue, its a little fuzzy but overall okay.
INVESTOR OUTLOOK, DEFENSIVE OR OFFENSIVE?We are still in a pullback area in the SPX , and we are very close to lows . That prompted me to investigate what are people doing , are people long or bearish the SPX. With further investigation, This ratio shows that a sector rotation out of Staples into energy is not underway , far from it. I hence think that the lows in the SPX are going to hold.
US Consumer Staples Sector: Trend Reversal ImminentThe primary uptrend is coming to end; divergence and slacking indicators all point to consolidation at a minimum and probably a trend reversal. Exit-long is the least investors should consider. Depending on developments around the 53.05-area investors can also study potential shorts within the sector or short the sector as a whole.
Down side potential is decent: 50.40 and 48.70 form the first pivots and projection respectively.