“BTC Wave Check — Which Hits First: 100K or 75K?"🌪️📉📈 BTC Daily Update — Caught Between 85K Support & 100K Dreams 🌊🏄♂️
BTC is still riding that heavy downtrend wave after slipping out of the rising channel, and even though we just got a bounce off the 85K support zone, it doesn’t feel like a power move — more like BTC catching a quick breath before deciding its next paddle 🏄♂️😮💨.
Right now price is still sitting under broken market structure, and the short-term rising wedge forming on the chart is a classic bearish continuation setup. Bulls are pushing… but the candles aren’t showing confidence. No strong follow-through, no dominant volume — just a soft climb that feels fragile 😬📉.
If this wedge breaks down, the map below looks like this:
80K minor support 🌫️
A small patch of demand, but nothing major.
75K major liquidity zone 💧🔥
This is the big one — clean demand, strong memory, and the level where the chart would love to refill orders if this correction keeps flowing.
And honestly? When you read the structure and the slope of momentum, that 75K zone feels like the place the market wants to check before any real trend shift.
But here’s the flip side — the bullish escape route:
If BTC somehow gets momentum back and reclaims 90K → 95K, then the road to 100K opens again. That range is the key door. Crack it, hold it, and BTC can ride a fresh wave toward six-figure territory 🚀💛.
Meanwhile, RSI is sitting right in mid-range — not overheated, not oversold. Basically telling us the market hasn’t made up its mind yet. Momentum is neutral, waiting for a spark.
So here’s the million-dollar surf question:
Which comes first — the legendary 100K breakout or a deep dive to the 75K demand pool?
🤔💭🌊📊🔥
Your call, surfers — where’s this wave heading next?
💬 What do you think about this scenario? Only share your idea if you’ve got another opinion — otherwise just hit that button 👍
#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis
Trade ideas
BitcoinBitcoin has surpassed the $87,500 mark and has also broken through the key level of $90,000. As noted, the Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern has acted as a reversal signal. The market currently appears strong, as the price increase is supported by healthy trading volume. The next significant resistance level to watch for is $95,000, and it will be interesting to see how the price behaves at that point.
BTC: Target 100KBTC pulled back again over the weekend, dropping below 90K. I’ve been consistently emphasizing that levels below 90K present the optimal buying opportunity—and the market has rallied as predicted, aligning perfectly with my analysis. We now continue to wait for an upward breakout, with the target set at 100K.
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BTC aiming to retest 98k to 100k Several factors coming together:
The market is very bearish in sentiment. Selling likely exhausted here and short side probably overcrowded
Daily demand is holding and displaying strong reactions
Untested Weekly gap above and untested daily supply zone are calling for a liquidity test.
Bitcoin falling but still within structureBTC just pulled back from the mid-range rejection and is now retesting a key support cluster. The reaction here decides the next leg.
Price is sitting right on top of a major confluence zone: previous structure support, the lower trend line, and a high-volume node that has acted as a pivot multiple times. Lose this area and the “hard stop invalidation” region comes into play, which would likely trigger a deeper move toward the lower range.
Momentum indicators on the 6H are rolling over after failing to reclaim the upper band. Bulls need a higher low and a quick reclaim of the mid-range to keep momentum in their favour. Failure to do so opens the door for a broader corrective structure.
For now, the chart is simple: defend the floor or risk a larger breakdown. Reclaim resistance and the bullish continuation pattern remains intact.
What’s your read on BTC here?
BITCOIN - PRESSURE BUILDING - SHORT SQUEEZE INCOMING?Traders,
Bitcoin might be preparing a short squeeze. Let’s walk through the flow, structure, math, and correlations step-by-step so you understand what is happening and why it matters.
1. What Happened
Bitcoin dumped from 96k → 80.6k last week. Price then bounced and is now trading around 87k.
Under the surface:
Stablecoin-Margined Futures (USDT-M)
Since 27 Oct:
OI increased from 225k → 280k contracts
That’s +55k contracts (~24% increase)
CVD went down, not up
Meaning:
These new positions were mostly shorts
The market added leveraged short exposure during the dump
Interpretation:
USDT-M traders attacked the move lower aggressively. Increasing OI + dropping CVD = new sellers dominating, not buyers.
Coin-Margined Futures (BTC-M)
Since 27 Oct:
OI and CVD both dropped from 7.41B → 5.90B
BTC-M is usually “higher conviction” demand
A drop in BTC-M CVD means
Longs closing
Capitulation
Reduced bullish positioning
Interpretation:
Native BTC longs stepped aside. Short-term leverage traders pressed the downside.
Spot + Futures CVD (27 Oct → 21 Nov)
Spot CVD ↓
Futures CVD ↓
Price ↓
All making lower lows and lower highs
This was a clean, correlated downtrend.
2. The First Major Shift: Spot CVD Divergence
Since 21 November:
Spot CVD:
Higher highs
Higher lows
Rising together with price
Indicates real demand stepping in
Stablecoin Futures (USDT-M):
Still making lower lows
Still pressing shorts
Still fighting the spot buyers
This is the key:
Spot = real money
Futures = leveraged speculation
Rising spot CVD vs falling futures CVD = absorption pattern
Meaning:
Strong hands buy
Weak shorts keep selling
Price rises anyway
The pressure builds
Shorts eventually run out
The squeeze begins
This is one of the cleanest pre-squeeze structures you can get.
3. The Math: Fibonacci Rotation Logic
Let’s break down the structure.
(A → B → C Structure)
A = 116k (27 Oct)
B = 98.710
C = 107.403 (retracement)
The retrace sits at 0.5.
The reciprocal extension is 2.0
The 2.0 extension lands exactly at the 21 Nov wick (~81k)
This is a perfect harmonic rotation.
(X → Z → A Extension)
X = 06 Oct high
Z = 18 Oct low
A = 27 Oct high
Fibonacci extension from X → Z → A:
1.618 extension = 80.544
It matches the 2.0 from the ABC structure
It matches the 0.886 retracement on the HTF
Three independent mathematical signals hitting the same level. This is extremely rare and confirms the 81k zone as a rotation completion.
4. Structure Break
Since the 10 Nov low:
4H is making higher highs & higher lows
The descending trendline from 11 Nov is broken
Trend shifted from controlled downtrend → early reversal
Structure now favors continuation upwards as long as higher lows hold
Interpretation:
Sellers who relied on the trendline no longer have control.
4.5 Intermarket Correlation: Why Bitcoin Dumped When ES Dumped
Another important factor:
Bitcoin dumped because ES dumped.
From 12 Nov → 21 Nov:
S&P500 (ES)
Dropped from 6900 → 6525
–5.43% correction
Bitcoin:
Dropped from 107k → 80.5k
–24.77% correction
BTC acted as a ~4.5× levered version of ES.
BTC acted as a ~4.5× levered version of ES.
Correlation Data:
Rolling BTC/ES correlation increased from 0.38 → 0.74
Meaning BTC traded almost in sync with equities during the selloff
Why?
Risk-Off Mechanics
When ES sells off:
Equity funds de-risk
Macro algos rotate out of high beta
Volatility spikes
Systematic funds reduce exposure
Crypto is treated as “high beta tech”
BTC amplifies the move by a factor of 3–5×
Bitcoin didn’t dump because crypto was weak — It dumped because macro markets were risk-off.
Why this matters now
ES has stabilized
BTC stopped following ES lower
Spot demand started rising
BTC/ES correlation is dropping again (from 0.78 → ~0.55)
USDT-M shorts didn’t adjust
This is exactly when short squeezes start on BTC:
Macro stabilizes
Crypto regains independence
Shorts remain positioned for risk-off
Spot buyers take control
Price accelerates upward
This is a classic intermarket correlation unwind.
5. USDT Dominance (USDT.D) Confirms Risk Rotation
USDT dominance has turned down, which means:
Traders are deploying capital
Less stablecoin sitting idle
More risk-on appetite
Historically aligns with BTC beginning new legs up after HTF rotations
When USDT.D falls at the same time spot CVD rises, the market is shifting capital into crypto.
6. Targets: 118.5k → 124k
These are the next liquidity magnets.
Target #1: 118.5k
Confluences with:
1.141 extension of the 11 Nov → 12 Nov move
First major liquidity pool
First real “decision point” for the market
Target #2: 124k
Confluences with:
A weak high that will be swept
1.618 extension of the same 11→12 Nov move
Natural squeeze exhaustion zone
Perfect location for a Swing Fail Pattern
Rotation Logic
Shallow retraces → larger extensions (1.618 → 2.0)
Deep retraces → smaller extensions (1.272 → 1.414)
BTC currently fits the shallow retrace profile → favors strong extension
7. Other Pivot Points
Marked on the chart:
Minor LVNs
Minor-imbalances
CME Gaps
Expect reaction at each point.
8. Invalidation & Bearish Pathway
My invalidation is clear:
Trading below 80k invalidates the squeeze setup.
Below 80k, the absorption breaks.
If 80k is lost, the downside extension levels become:
74k
70k
64k
These levels are:
The natural downside extension pathways from the 11 Nov → 21 Nov swing
They form the mirrored rotation of the bullish structure
Final View
We dumped because macro went risk-off
Bitcoin amplified the ES selloff
Shorts loaded heavily into the move
Spot buyers stepped in first
A clean absorption pattern formed
Mathematical rotation completed at ~81k
Structure flipped
Risk metrics like USDT.D turned down
Correlation with ES is now unwinding
If Bitcoin continues to hold above 80k and spot keeps leading, the squeeze toward 118.5k → 124k becomes the most likely path.
Abbreviation List
BTC – Bitcoin
ES – S&P500 E-Mini Futures
OI – Open Interest
CVD – Cumulative Volume Delta
USDT-M – Stablecoin-Margined Futures
BTC-M – Coin-Margined Futures
HTF – Higher Timeframe
LVN – Low Volume Node
AVWAP – Anchored Volume-Weighted Average Price
PRZ – Potential Reversal Zone
SFP – Swing Fail Pattern
Fib – Fibonacci
CTA – Commodity Trading Advisor (systematic trend-following funds)
VIX – Volatility Index
Beta – Sensitivity of an asset’s movement relative to a benchmark
Risk-Off – Market environment where investors reduce exposure to risky assets
Risk-On – Market environment where investors increase exposure to risky assets
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If you enjoy this type of deep, data-driven breakdown—spot vs futures, CVD flow, intermarket correlation, and rotation math—drop a like and leave a comment. It helps me see whether these higher-level analyses bring value, and it motivates me to keep sharing them for free.
DeGRAM | BTCUSD will test the $80k level📊 Technical Analysis
● BTC is retesting the multi-month support zone near 80K, aligning with the long-term ascending base and the lower boundary of the falling trend, creating conditions for a medium-term rebound.
● A break above the descending resistance line could trigger recovery toward 92K as the structure shows exhaustion of bearish momentum.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Recent ETF inflows and easing macro pressure from U.S. yields support accumulation near major support zones.
✨ Summary
● Bullish bias from 80K support. Targets: 88K → 92K. Key support: 80K.
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TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #235👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s move on to the Bitcoin analysis. Today is Saturday, it’s the weekend, and market volume and volatility have dropped significantly.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
The long trigger we had yesterday on Bitcoin was broken, but the market didn’t continue upward, instead, it turned into a fake breakout.
⚖️ The main resistance on Bitcoin remains 93,555, and the price didn’t reach this level. Sellers entered the market earlier than expected and took control before price could reach the resistance.
💫 After this fakeout and with the weekend arriving, trading volume has decreased sharply, the difference in volume before and after the fakeout is very noticeable.
🔭 This low volume has caused the price to slowly drift downward with a very weak slope, and it’s currently fluctuating around the 90,724 zone.
📊 Additionally, because volume is so low, the price is not reacting cleanly to levels and is not respecting them, which is normal when market depth decreases.
✅ At the moment, I don’t think the market is in a good condition to open new positions.
💡 The main resistance zone on Bitcoin is still 93,555, and breaking this level will turn the trend bullish.
✨ As long as the price is above 89,000, I do not consider the trend bearish, but this does not mean the market is bullish either.
🎲 Right now, Bitcoin has no clear trend, and for a new trend to form, we must wait for a confirmed breakout either above 93,555 or below 89,000.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
BTCUSDT.P - December 5, 2025Price is currently in a corrective pullback within a broader intraday up swing after rebounding from the lower support band around 86,600. The key immediate support sits near 91,800–92,000, with a tighter risk level just below 93,400, while the next significant resistance and projected target lies in the 105,000–106,000 region. A sustained higher low above current support with rising short‑term momentum would favor a continuation toward that upper resistance zone, whereas a break below support would open the way for a retest of the recent lows.
BTC Bullish Quasimodo Forming? Potential Reversal Setup 80k–125kBitcoin continues to trade below the macro descending trendline, respecting lower highs since the last major swing high. Price is currently around the 93k area, reacting to a minor resistance + Fibonacci cluster.
🔍 Why a Bullish Quasimodo Is Possible
A Bullish QM (Quasimodo) pattern forms when the market creates:
Initial High
Lower High
Lower Low (liquidity sweep)
Higher Low (retest zone)
Break of Structure to the upside
BTC appears to have formed steps 1 and 2, and may be setting up for a deeper sweep to complete the Lower Low around the major demand zone.
🧭 Projected Price Path
Short-term expectation (bearish liquidity sweep):
Possible rejection from the descending trendline
Decline toward 91,300 → 88k → 86k
Final liquidity sweep into ~80k, which aligns with a major demand zone and previous volume imbalance
Mid-term expectation (bullish reversal):
Strong bounce from the 80k zone
Formation of the Higher Low (QM retest zone)
Break above the descending trendline
Upside targets:
97,900
103,200
108,000
125,000+ (Fibonacci extension target)
🎯 Bias Summary
Short-term: Neutral to bearish (liquidity sweep expected)
Mid-term: Bullish reversal if QM structure completes and price forms a Higher Low
⚠️ Invalidation
A clean daily close below 78,500 invalidates the Bullish QM scenario.
104k Moonshot or Brutal 96k Rejection? Bitcoin’s Final Bull TrapFriends, Bitcoin has played out exactly as outlined in my previous idea.
As I mentioned last time, that drop could have either been:
1. The start of a deeper bearish continuation after a minor correction, or
2. Wave B of a larger ABC correction — in which case BTC had to reclaim above 93k.
The chart has confirmed the second option — it was wave B.
Therefore, we are now building wave C upwards, and Bitcoin has already broken above 93k.
On the current chart I still have two active scenarios:
🟠 Orange arrow scenario:
A quick push toward ~96k followed by a reversal and drop back to the recent lows.
In this case, the entire three-wave move we’ve seen so far could become wave A of a larger corrective structure.
🟢 Green arrow scenario (my preferred one for now):
Continuation higher to the 102–104k zone, completing wave C of this correction, and only AFTER that we finally update the recent lows.
My ultimate downside target remains 60k and below, but first let’s see which path Bitcoin chooses in the coming days.
Which scenario do you think will play out — orange or green?
Drop your thoughts in the comments! 👇
Like, comment, follow if you find this helpful — really appreciate your feedback and reactions! 🚀
BTCUSDT - The Top (3x) I am looking at $75k-$80k for a bottom with 3 potential topping targets, the last macro sized pump for 'the cycle'.
Target 1 ~$108k
Target 2 ~$144k
Target 3 ~$173k
I put the least weight in Target 1 at 10%, with 40% for Target 2 and 3 a piece.
As to when these targets hit, I am thinking 2nd week to 3rd week of January 2026 to coincide with the seasonal 'January Effect'
As always, this could be completely wrong. So as always, hold strong opinions, but hold them loosely.
BTCUSDT Short-term bullish trend: Target - $94KTread with Caution with the market lacking volatility and the upcoming FOMC meeting. Use Stop Loss wisely.
The 15 min chart shows a triangle formation ready for a breakout with a potential target of $94K.
The 4hr chart shows a double bottom formation with a potential target also around $94K.
The previous FVG on the 4-hour chart also sits between the 94K-95K zone.
The market structure shows an uptrend with higher highs and lower lows recently and the prices sitting above the 20EMA.
The RSI and MACD are also trending upwards on the Daily, 4hr and 15min, indicating (for the moment) bullish trend.
Overall, gives enough data points to suggest a temporary uptick to $94K range.
As always, trade with strong risk management and adapt with the market direction.
BTC 88194.99K the point where time bows before structure Carved in Stone: The Point Where Time Bowing to Structure
🏷 BTC
🏷 17.11.2025
🏷 Capital Sector. Local price slice at a moment. System of intelligent anticipation.
🏷 88194.99 — The price is carved. As of publication, the level has not yet been reached.
November 17, 2025 — not a date, but a portal .
Within it, as within an ancient temple, the number is inscribed: 88194.99 . Not approximately. Not “around.”
Carved — without room for interpretation, without space for opinion.
This is not a signal. This is the establishment of reality within the Capital Sector. Here, speculation ends; architecture begins. Lower timeframes fall silent. The crowd remains in shadow. Only those who understand the language of price sectors and anticipatory structures can read what has already been written.
To this core is bound a minimum impulse of 7% — not an option, but a structural imperative. Price does not merely move: it must validate the integrity of the sector. Thus, the range of realization is not shaped by desire, but by inevitability.
International horizons have long been marked: not all may approach the source without being burned.
To outsiders — no entry. Not because it is forbidden, but because it is inaccessible . Reality here is constructed according to rules that are not debated — they are executed.
The point is not an invitation. The point is a test.
— The Architect
Bitcoin Price Apex Zone, Directional Move this week?BTC is sitting above a key level at $90,000 after rejecting from the 0.618 Fib, which aligned with the value area high and dynamic trendline resistance.
This confluence has pushed price back into an apex zone where consolidation is likely.
Key Points:
- Rejection at 0.618 Fibonacci + value area high
- Dynamic trendline continues to cap upside
- Price compressing inside an apex, watching for a break
What to Expect:
As long as dynamic resistance holds, BTC risks a decisive downside break once the apex completes. Bulls must reclaim resistance to shift momentum.
BTCUSDT – Bullish Retracement Toward Supply ZoneMarket Structure:
Price has been in a short-term bearish structure, making consecutive lower highs and lower lows. Multiple CHoCH and BOS events confirm active redistribution phases.
Liquidity Zones:
• A large demand zone (highlighted in orange) sits around 90,900 – 91,200, where price recently reacted and swept the weak low liquidity.
• Above current price, a clear supply zone / strong high is marked at 92,300 – 92,500, which is the main upside target.
Recent Price Action:
Price dipped into the demand zone, swept liquidity, and produced a bullish CHoCH, signaling a possible short-term reversal. The blue-circled area marks the initial rejection and shift in character.
Expectations:
If bullish momentum holds:
• Price may form a higher low, push upward, and aim for the mitigation of the supply zone at 92,300 – 92,500.
• This region represents the TARGET and a potential reaction zone for sellers.
Invalidation:
A break below the weak low would indicate continuation of bearish structure and invalidate the upward target.
Bias:
Short-term bullish retracement toward supply, within a broader bearish context.






















