BBY isn't a BB anymore, nothing in retail/tech is doing well :/Targets in blue, earnings next week and I have a couple puts I'll close at the first line, one longer June expiration that I will hold for now. Let's see how this goes!
BUY trade ideas
THE WEEK AHEAD: BBY, DE, GPS, LOW EARNINGS; UNG, XOP, NFLXIn spite of the shortened trading week due to the Thanksgiving holiday, there are balls to hit out there ... .
Earnings:
BBY (95/57) (announcing Tuesday before market open): The December 21st 57.5/75 short strangle shown here is paying 2.42 with break evens near the one standard deviation line. I tried pricing out a defined risk iron condor, but it looks like some strikes need to populate post-November opex in order for me to price a setup where I'd want to set up my tent (i.e., short strikes between the 20 and 30 deltas, longs 3-5 strikes out with the setup paying at least one-third the width of the wings).
LOW (78/40) (announcing Tuesday before market open): As with the DE play, I'm able to price out a short strangle -- the 80% probability of profit December 21st 80/105 pays 1.35, but not an iron condor due to the population of strikes around where I'd like to set up. I'll just have to wait until NY open to price a defined risk setup.
GPS (87/54) (announcing Tuesday after market close): To me, it's small enough to short straddle, with the December 21st 26 short straddle paying 3.17, but I could also see going with the 23/29 (paying 1.05) to give yourself a little more flexibility with defense if you're not a fan of defending the straddle via inversion (which is generally what you have to do with a short straddle where the move is greater than the expected). Alternatively, the December 21st 21/26/26/31 iron fly pays 2.71 with a buying power effect of 2.29, which are the metrics I'm looking for out of an iron fly (risk one to make one or better; credit received at least one-fourth the number of strikes between the longs).
DE (81/48) (announcing Wednesday before market open): The December 21st 135/160 is paying 4.53 with near one standard deviation break evens; the 130/135/160/165 iron condor in the same expiry pays 1.75.
Non-Earnings Single Name:
NFLX (69/54) still has some juice in it post-earnings. The December 21st 240/245/325/330 is paying 1.56 -- not quite one-third the width, but you're only working with 33 days until expiry.
Exchange-Traded Funds:
The top symbols: SLV (100/24), UNG (100/97), EEM (63/27), OIH (77/41), and XOP (77/42). Unless you've been living under a rock, UNG, OIH, and XOP "friskiness" are understandable here, with oil prices taking a header from more than $75/bbl. to a low $20 below that since the beginning of October. Conversely, a fire got lit under natty's ass due to seasonally early weather-related pressure, shooting up from a less than a 3.50 print at the start of November to 4.93 mid-month. It's eased back to 4.39 since then, but yeesh ... . Were it not natural gas, I'd be inclined to sell premium in UNG given the rank/implied metrics, but I'm patiently waiting for my standard seasonality play -- a downward put diagonal with the front month in Jan, the back month mid year. Since we're only in November with plenty of winter in front of us, I'm satisfied with waiting on more potential upside before pulling the trigger on that setup.
With XOP and related products, I've been selling nondirectional premium, although I could see potentially skewing things bullishly, adding some petro underlying long delta to existing setups, or just taking an outright bullish assumption shot (e.g., /CL short puts, XOP/OIH/XLE short puts, upward call diagonals, etc.), since oil has been totally crushed here.
Majors:
SPY (31/21); QQQ (53/25); IWM (54/23); DIA (37/19). Temporarily, it looks like QQQ is where the broad market premium is at, followed by IWM.
BBY Puts short term6 week consolidation followed by a confirmation of a downtrend suggests a 10.5% drop by Dec 10
Long just-before or on 20th November 2018 Earnings Release DateThe last time BBY was in a downtrend with earnings release was 16 Nov 2017. 4-weeks after that the stock was higher; this was the case even through earnings per share was a miss (0.78 versus 0.79 consensus).
This time, expect an earnings per share beat for 20 Nov 2018.
Long at or around $68, Hold until $80 the resistance of current channel. Hold position until Christmas 2018.
Donchian 20 for 15M R=2.9Stop: 70.60
Ent: 71.40
Exit: 73.50
For 11/06/2018 Trade 1/10 when Technical analysis from 2 to 4.
BBYBig picture: downtrend - sell short
Small picture: - sideways - may go long
P.S.
Anything can happen!
Be ready for a short as well as a long possibility - stay neutral.
Define your risk (stop loss)
I typically trade only when price action is confirming reversal in these defined zones
BBRY channel from 2016 about to breakMomentum is running out of steam, price is hugging the support line and resistance area has identified itself. I would not long at these levels, expecting a retracement down.
BBYLong. Broke through resistance and down trend line. Good entry here and stop right below resistance.
Best Buy (BBY): looking solid before the earnings?www.finstead.com
Investors will be watching out for Best Buy's operational efficiency improvements under the new CEO Hubert Joly. The company's Renew Blue plan is shooting for accelerated online sales growth, improved multichannel customer experience, optimizing store square footage and US real estate portfolio. The company is also focused on gaining supply chain efficiencies, and cutting unnecessary selling, general, and administrative costs--necessary to compete in an evolving consumer electronics retail market.
Best Buy reaffirmed its position as a reliable operator in the evolving retail marketplace, following up its strong holiday results with 7.1% comps showing strength across several categories. Best Buy isn't just benefiting from favorable product cycles--mobile, appliances, computing, tablets, and smart home were called out as key drivers--and a healthy U.S. housing market, but also an improved in-store and online customer experience.
Out of the box$BBY is out of the box, consumer confidence theme continues? me think so, unless $AMZN interrupts
Best Buy near support5th sub-wave of 3th may be not finished since 3th wave is extended usually. Hence the target of 3th wave is about 80$. But if 3th wave is finished the target of next impulse wave is 41$. If support level 51.80 will be pierced, I guess it will mean the wave 3 is finished and this decrease is wave 4. Otherwise this decrease can be correction of the wave 3 and the target price 80$ is still actual.
BBY - Triple Top Decision Next WeekStrong passive hold, approaching a possible breakthrough on a triple top, or back into the 50 EMA to accumulate before another attempt.
BBY - Ranging or Sideways Price Action Equals Reversal AreasIf price action on a ranging or sideways chart goes above ZONE, set up sell trades, if price action goes below ZONE, then set up buy trades. Keep It Simple. Wish Best In Trading.
Best Buy Is Set To Drop Over Next 3-13 MonthsBest Buy is in Cycle Wave 4. The bottom of this wave should occur between July 25, 2018 and August 20, 2019. The bottom should occur between 52.12 and 63.5. These dates and numbers are based on comparative trend analysis and derivative analytics.
BBY sell off after dividends?BBY has historically had some selling after dividends have been calculated... BBY announced that 6/14/18 is the date... let's keep an eye on this one and see if a setup appears :)
Short to Mid-Term Bear - Strong Moving Average ConfluenceNYSE:BBY
WEEKLY: Uptrend remains intact. Strong fib level at 65 and if that level is broken, next fib level is 52.
DAILY: Both double-bottom and double-top patterns played out successfully although 2nd leg didn't reach the 66.50 level. Currently the 20/50/100 and potential gap fill may reach confluence, act as resistance, and push the stock lower to the 66.50/200MA level. 2nd support level is the $52.75 level which is when it broke out and also the 61.8% fib level. CCI/MACD is showing bullishness while OBV is flat so need to monitor the price levels and re-assess.
HOURLY: Semi-rounding base is present and bullish but still resistance factors are in play. CCI is a bit oversold and MACD/OBV is bullish. Will monitor if cup and handle pattern completes.
BBY Potential BreakoutThere are some bullish divergence developing with the lower high price but higher higher rsi. The price is very close to a pivot point to change direction also stacked with where the fib retrace line from the recent earnings dump.
Overall the fundamental for BBY is on the good side, it just that the stock has went up a lot lately with investors having too high of a expectation of the numbers.
BBY is a best buy lolTime to buy the dip. Down on better than expected earnings. No reason for this. If it goes down again, load up for a sell after Christmas.
Best Buy heading down to 66Best Buy gap down after earnings. It will most likely heads lowers to 66 (200-day moving average) before bouncing.
