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Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures

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UB1! trade ideas

Long bond bulls’ eye bigger breakoutThe bullish move in U.S. ultra-long bond futures anticipated last week has played out nicely, with the contract surging higher over the subsequent days, taking out a key topside hurdle comprising the 200DMA and horizontal resistance at 119’19. The move has now stalled at a downtrend from the highs set in September last year, a period when the Fed went full-bore dove on concerns the U.S. was potentially slipping into recession. Sound familiar? Zooming out, the contract is coiling within a falling wedge, a continuation pattern that points to the potential for a far larger extension of the bullish move should the price break and hold above the September 2024 downtrend. The signal from the breakout may not be as reliable as others given long bond futures have been anything but bullish in recent years, but convention suggests we could eventually revisit the September 2024 highs, implying a 30-year yield of less than 4%. 122’18 and 124’24 are minor levels to monitor on the topside before more significant tests await at 129’00, 132’00, 135’13 and the September 2024 swing high. RSI (14) and MACD point to building bullish momentum, favouring a similar directional bias that should improve the odds of the breakout sticking, should it occur. Good luck! DS
CBOT:UB1!Long
by FOREXcom
8
Long Bonds: Bullish ShiftU.S. 30-year Treasury futures have delivered a definitive bullish signal, casting doubt on the anxiety being expressed by some market participants about the relatively rapid steepening of sovereign bond curves. Wednesday delivered a bullish key reversal candle on the daily timeframe, followed by further buying on Thursday that saw the price move back to minor resistance at 117’28, breaking through the 200DMA in the process. While volumes were not especially large accompanying the move, they were not insignificant enough to dismiss the signal—especially as directional shifts in the contract have tended to last weeks rather than days recently. The bullish breakout may have legs, pointing to the potential for an even larger decline in long-end Treasury yields beyond that already seen. While this analysis is more about pushing back on the bearish narrative that the long end of the yield curve is about to wreak havoc on broader markets, for those interested in a trade idea, a clean break above 117’28 would create a bullish setup where longs could be established above the level with a stop beneath for protection. Sellers may be encountered above 119’00, although the 50DMA or resistance at 119’19 screen as more appropriate upside targets. While the 50DMA still has a negative slope, that bearish signal is countered by momentum indicators which are quickly shifting bullish. RSI (14) has broken its downtrend and is now back above 50, while MACD has just delivered a bullish crossover, albeit marginally in negative territory. Combined, the momentum signal is one shifting directional risks. Good luck! DS
CBOT:UB1!Long
by FOREXcom
U.S. Long Bonds: Bearish engulfing sets the toneSitting in an established downtrend and having just printed a bearish engulfing candle to end August, downside risks for U.S. long bonds look to be skewing lower. Throw in momentum indicators which are generating a mildly bearish signal and support at 116’06 may soon come under threat. UB futures have bounced from this level the last four times it’s been tested, including earlier Monday in thin, holiday-impacted trade. However, if the price were to break and close beneath 116’06, especially the low of 116’00 set on August 27, it may spark a deeper unwind towards 115’16, a level the price has done plenty of work either side of over recent months. A sustained push beneath 116’06 would allow for shorts to be established on the break with a stop above the level for protection, targeting either 115’16 or the July 16 swing low of 113’20. From a fundamental perspective, questions regarding Fed independence have combined with evidence of accelerating inflationary pressures to steepen the U.S. Treasury curve over the past fortnight, with shorter-dated yields declining while longer-dated yields, such as for 30-year bonds, push higher. With markets pricing in around 100bp of rate cuts from the Fed until June next year, incoming economic data will have to justify the need for additional monetary policy support; otherwise, it risks placing further pressure on long bond futures. Good luck! DS
CBOT:UB1!Short
by FOREXcom
|Trifecta| The Ultra Idea : d-MR96nBa's Ultimate Market Journal | Trifecta |🌌The Ultra Idea : d-MR96nBa's🌠Ultimate Market Journal🎨 *Third times a charm. This Idea will allow me to update my Journal* Hello Fellow Travelers It's been some time since I've posted a Fresh Idea, though I've remained actively trading. What better way to mark my TradView return, than to start an Ultimate Market Journal. Financial Markets have taken my deep interest again recently, especially as we seem to be at a time of accelerating change and shifting regimes. I believe many opportunities abound to those with open, flexible and creative minds. A bit more about myself. I've been involved with financial markets in one form or fashion for 18 years now. I started out like most of us, approaching the game with fundamental analysis, only to later incorporate and then fully graduate to T/A. I'm a natural Contrarian. My brand of technical analysis is as much about aesthetics, creative expression, discovering hidden truths and applying Universal Principles as it is running the numbers. I'm starting this off with Ultra Bond Futures, as UB's are the trading instrument I've come to specialise in, having had the most ongoing consistent success trading. This by no means is going to be a "I bought here and sold there" type of Journal, as that's not my style. Nor am I going to focus on a single market instrument, observation or style of analysis. I'd like this to become a repository of accumulated wisdom and unique market perceptives. I've just begun contemplating what this may evolve into in time, and I invite you to join me in taking this Leap d-MR96nBa🌌 Concept Inversion📈📉 Seek out and analyse whatever moves exactly inverse to what you intend to trade. If you're having trouble discerning trend or observing price patterns, check the inverse. This can be an excellent technique for exposing Bias. This can work particularly well for currency traders, though can be Universally applied. For US Ultra Bonds, the inverse is the US 30 Year Yield Ultra Bond Futures US 30 Year Yield TLT TBT SPY SH QQQ PSQ Currency traders, say you're about to trade AUD/CHF Check out the CHF/AUD chart first, if they both appear Bullish or Bearish, you've got a Bias. AUD/CHF CHF/AUD GBP/JPY JPY/GBP EUR/USD USD/EUR Are there any examples of Inversion in Trading you'd like to share ? What else is on my🧠 Well just casually, I believe we're currently witnessing Peak Bitcoin in it's Entire Life-cycle. This is coming from a guy who previously recommend people buy BTC for retirement Have we Bull Trapped & Breakaway Gapped on Berkshire Hathaway Could Warrens Retirement mark the end of the Great US Bull Market BRK.B It's in the Detail 🔑
CBOT:UB1!
by d-MR96nBa
2
The Ultra Idea : d-MR96nBa's Ultimate Market Journal🌌The Ultra Idea : d-MR96nBa's🌠Ultimate Market Journal🎨 Hello Fellow Travelers It's been some time since I've posted a Fresh Idea, though I've remained actively trading. What better way to mark my TradView return, than to start an Ultimate Market Journal. Financial Markets have taken my deep interest again recently, especially as we seem to be at a time of accelerating change and shifting regimes. I believe many opportunities abound to those with open, flexible and creative minds. A bit more about myself. I've been involved with financial markets in one form or fashion for 18 years now. I started out like most of us, approaching the game with fundamental analysis, only to later incorporate and then fully graduate to T/A. I'm a natural Contrarian. My brand of technical analysis is as much about aesthetics, creative expression, discovering hidden truths and applying Universal Principles as it is running the numbers. I'm starting this off with Ultra Bond Futures, as UB's are the trading instrument I've come to specialise in, having had the most ongoing consistent success trading. This by no means is going to be a "I bought here and sold there" type of Journal, as that's not my style. Nor am I going to focus on a single market instrument, observation or style of analysis. I'd like this to become a repository of accumulated wisdom and unique market perceptives. I've just begun contemplating what this may evolve into in time, and I invite you to join me in taking this Leap d-MR96nBa🌌 Concept Inversion📈📉 Seek out and analyse whatever moves exactly inverse to what you intend to trade. If you're having trouble discerning trend or observing price patterns, check the inverse. This can be an excellent technique for exposing Bias. This can work particularly well for currency traders, though can be Universally applied. For US Ultra Bonds, the inverse is the US 30 Year Yield Ultra Bond Futures US 30 Year Yield Currency traders, say you're about to trade AUD/CHF Check out the CHF/AUD chart first, if they both appear Bullish or Bearish, you've got a Bias. AUD/CHF CHF/AUD GBP/JPY JPY/GBP EUR/USD USD/EUR Are there any examples of Inversion in Trading you'd like to share ? What else is on my🧠 Well just casually, I believe we're currently witnessing Peak Bitcoin in it's entire Life-cycle. Have we Bull Trapped & Breakaway Gapped on Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B It's in the Detail
CBOT:UB1!Education
by d-MR96nBa
1
Long Term Bond ForecastInterest rates are carving a bottom as I had indicated on December 29th 2024. The fed has been holding off cutting rates and they will soon realize that they are ONCE AGAIN late to react. We will then see many successive rate cuts which will drive interest rates down rapidly. The Fed always follow the 2 year yield. Currently, the 2 year is at 3.88% which is roughly 50 bp below the average Fed rate. This indicates they are lagging the bond market and will have to follow. The economy is starting to show signs of slowing down. I would go as far as saying that it is in recession. It won't be acknowledged until several months later but that too is always the case. As the economy continues to slow down, we are very possibly heading towards a second Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) in the months to come.
CBOT:UB1!Long
by adventurous51
A trade of a lifetime idea for 2025 This is a potential trade of a lifetime. Long term yields have gone up since the Fed started cutting. Although counter intuitive, this is what they do most of the time. The future cuts are going to be bull steepening (i.e. we are close to if not at the bottom for ). Although the Fed says it will cut less in 2025 let’s look at the factors that could make them wrong (TWW, They have always been wrong) 1) Continuous jobless claims and unemployment are going steadily up. The Fed will panic if this trend continues. 2) Inflation is still in a downtrend and the worldwide data suggests it will keep going down. Trump's policy can be inflationary but like any administration, they will take time to implement them and will not likely affect the data right way. Besides, Trumps want tariffs but low inflation and low interest rates (You can't have your cake and eat it too). Regardless, this is why I am not predicting further than the end of 2025 at this point. 3) The economy appears to grow strong, but the USA can't be isolated from the rest of the world for ever. The European and China problems are going to affect the growth. 4) The stock market is overvalued so a big correction in 2025 is very likely. In which case, money will flow in bonds and the Fed will intervene. 5) Long term yields in other countries (Germany, Canada, Switzerland, China...) Have started to go down. The USA is just a bit late because the Fed is slow to react and still hawkish, but my bet is… not for long. 6) The US Dollar is super strong. What will the Fed attempt to do? Keep the interest differential between them and other countries low (i.e. drop interest rates) How much can this be worth? Lets say you have $13,000 and buy one UB1! Contract that you roll over throughout the year (You need about $8,000 of margin so you have $5,000 to cushion a potential fall below the October 2023 low, where I suggest you put your stop loss). If it reaches the $181’06 level, you make approximately $62,968 or 484% on your $13,000 over 9 to 12 months and you risked only $5,000. If by any chance it reaches the $209’20 level, you make approximately $91,093 or 701% on your $13,000 over 9 to 12 months and you risked only $5,000. If you don’t like futures, you could do a similar trade using NASDAQ:TLT although it will be a bit less impressive but also less risky. I'll let you do the math. Note: This is not a financial advice, trading comes with risks. Expected results are not guaranteed results. This is only an opinion, take it for what it is.
CBOT:UB1!Long
by adventurous51
1
Go short on UB daytradingShort U.S. Treasury Bond Futures: Key Factors Signaling a Downtrend With evolving market conditions, shorting U.S. Treasury Bond (UB) futures might be a timely move for investors. Rising interest rates, inflation concerns, and shifts in fiscal policy all point to potential declines in long-term bond prices. Here’s why taking a short position on Treasury Bond futures is worth considering. 1. Interest Rate Hikes: A Negative Signal for Bonds As the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates to curb inflation, bond prices have historically moved in the opposite direction. When rates rise, newly issued bonds offer higher yields, making existing bonds with lower yields less attractive. This shift pressures long-term bond prices, which we see reflected in the UB futures market. Given the Fed's recent signaling for potential further hikes, bond prices may see additional declines in the coming months. 2. Persistent Inflation Pressures Despite efforts to control it, inflation remains above target levels. Persistent inflation erodes the real returns on bonds, prompting investors to look elsewhere for inflation-resistant investments, such as equities or commodities. With inflation elevated, the real returns on Treasury bonds may continue to look unattractive, adding downward pressure on bond prices. For UB futures, this means a bearish outlook as investors shy away from low-yielding, inflation-sensitive assets. 3. Shifts in Fiscal Policy and Government Debt U.S. government spending has surged in recent years, contributing to a growing debt load. As new bonds are issued to finance the debt, the increased supply could further drive bond prices down. The expectation that the government will need to issue additional debt – possibly at higher yields – could create a challenging environment for existing bond prices. This scenario strengthens the case for shorting UB futures as the supply/demand balance weighs heavily on prices. 4. Technical Indicators Confirm the Bearish Trend Looking at technical analysis, UB futures are showing signs of a bearish trend, with prices trending downward over recent months. Moving averages are sloping downward, and the futures have recently broken below key support levels, suggesting momentum may continue. Additionally, RSI indicators are not yet in oversold territory, implying there could be further downside potential before a technical rebound occurs. 5. Global Economic Uncertainty and Risk Appetite Rising global tensions and uncertainty in foreign markets are leading investors to adjust their risk tolerance. As equity markets show resilience and risk appetite increases, there’s less inclination toward traditionally safer assets like long-term bonds. Furthermore, as investors anticipate that Treasury bonds may underperform amid high inflation and rising rates, demand for bonds may continue to weaken, further supporting a bearish position in UB futures. Conclusion: Strategic Timing for Shorting UB Futures The combination of rising interest rates, persistent inflation, increased debt issuance, and a negative technical outlook creates a compelling case for shorting U.S. Treasury Bond futures. As economic conditions evolve, these factors may continue to weigh on bond prices, offering traders a favorable entry point to capitalize on the anticipated decline.
CBOT:UB1!Short
by BidAskMagnet
How low can bonds go?Months ago, when 10 year bond futures were still 175, this weekly head and shoulders pattern jumped out at me. It looked so big and so bad I almost didn't want to believe it could play out. Now, as we approach 135, this massive, fully triggered pattern may be the best indication of where bonds are headed: 125. Sure, they could bounce a few times as they have done on the way down, but ultimately June 2011 lows are the likely stopping point on this decline. BONUS: As you can see, I didn't count the massive March 2020 wick or include it in the measured move. Better to be prepared for the UB to overshoot the 125 target by a little or a lot before staging any meaningful comeback.
CBOT:UB1!Short
by gr8fultrading
Macroeconomic: Long Bonds/Stocks, Short GoldGold bug's biggest complaint is ALWAYS manipulation of Gold prices... Enter: exhibit 1. This is the spread between Bonds and Gold, and it has reached maturity and should reverse from here IMHO. With yields at 3%, banks will enter the bond market en masse, hedging that position with a short on Gold. With yields finally attractive, the US DX will also continue to rally which will be good for both bonds and stocks. For Gold, here you can see the EW justification for a return to lower levels as part of a 4th wave (before eventually making new highs). Then a zoom in on the current breakdown: I think a short position in Gold is justified, as well as long Stocks. The bottom in Bonds has not yet shown itself but could be any minute or day IMHO. I think the biggest risk to this macroeconomic analysis is that we will see a deflation across multiple assets as a result of rising rates, which will be apparent if stocks don’t rally and bonds continue lower.
CBOT:UB1!
by FuturesIntelTM