Months ago, when 10 year bond futures were still 175, this weekly head and shoulders pattern jumped out at me. It looked so big and so bad I almost didn't want to believe it could play out.
Now, as we approach 135, this massive, fully triggered pattern may be the best indication of where bonds are headed: 125.
Sure, they could bounce a few times as they have done on the way down, but ultimately June 2011 lows are the likely stopping point on this decline.
BONUS: As you can see, I didn't count the massive March 2020 wick or include it in the measured move. Better to be prepared for the UB to overshoot the 125 target by a little or a lot before staging any meaningful comeback.
Now, as we approach 135, this massive, fully triggered pattern may be the best indication of where bonds are headed: 125.
Sure, they could bounce a few times as they have done on the way down, but ultimately June 2011 lows are the likely stopping point on this decline.
BONUS: As you can see, I didn't count the massive March 2020 wick or include it in the measured move. Better to be prepared for the UB to overshoot the 125 target by a little or a lot before staging any meaningful comeback.
Trade closed: target reached:
UB has just reached the target of 125
TLT pattern indicates further downside is likely
TLT pattern indicates further downside is likely
