How low can bonds go?

CBOT:UB1!   Ultra U.S. Treasury Bond Futures
Months ago, when 10 year bond futures were still 175, this weekly head and shoulders pattern jumped out at me. It looked so big and so bad I almost didn't want to believe it could play out.

Now, as we approach 135, this massive, fully triggered pattern may be the best indication of where bonds are headed: 125.

Sure, they could bounce a few times as they have done on the way down, but ultimately June 2011 lows are the likely stopping point on this decline.

BONUS: As you can see, I didn't count the massive March 2020 wick or include it in the measured move. Better to be prepared for the UB to overshoot the 125 target by a little or a lot before staging any meaningful comeback.
Trade closed: target reached:
UB has just reached the target of 125

TLT pattern indicates further downside is likely


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