Hello Traders!
The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish...
Daily is winding up to an inflection point, while the weekly is getting close as well. I'm favoring the bearish break; but there is a chance for a bullish reversal- so time will tell. What I can say is that we're approaching a conclusive point in time that will send price with signifcant momentum in either direction. When I look for an inflection point I watch for...
The Australian dollar is in positive territory on Monday. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6553, up 0.59%. The Aussie is flexing its muscles, gaining some 3% in the past week.
The Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of the meeting earlier this month on Tuesday. There wasn't much of a surprise as the RBA raised rates by a quarter-point...
Ever since 2008, the world shifted more to the world of collateral and distrust, after the world of unsecured collapsed.
Treasuries are dollars are in the future. As long as uncertainty remains high (or increases) there will be a place for government loans. Treasuries yielding near 5% on most maturities is "good enough" when compared to the historical 7% ish...
The British pound is drifting on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2142, almost unchanged.
The UK inflation report on Wednesday was a stark reminder that inflation remains stubborn and sticky. The Bank of England has raised the benchmark rate to 5.25%, but headline inflation was steady at 6.7% y/y and the core rate ticked lower to...
The British pound is calm on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2297, up 0.10%.
The UK economy has been struggling and GDP declined by 0.5% m/m in July. The markets are expecting a rebound on Wednesday, with GDP projected to rise by 0.2% m/m in August. For the three months to August, GDP is expected to increase by 0.3%, up from 0.2% in...
The British pound is higher on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2273, up 0.29%.
The Bank of England's financial policy committee (FPC) voiced concern about consumer borrowing. The FPC noted that consumers were taking longer mortgages and increasing spending on credit cards in response to being squeezed by higher interest rates and...
The Canadian dollar has steadied on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3728, down 0.12%.
The Canadian currency has stabilized after a nasty four-day slide, in which it declined 1.9%. The US dollar continues to look strong against the majors, as "US exceptionalism" continues to make the greenback attractive to investors.
The Canadian...
The attractiveness of Gold is tarnished
When cash instruments yield a positive rate of return
More and more people are getting on board of higher interest rates
(Dimon, Santelli)
But u can see the Gold price has been inversely correlating with the rate of return for decades.
It's bull run in the 2000's along with the commodity bull , coincided with real rates...
As much as we try not to repeat ideas here, occasionally, an opportunity emerges to harp on the same point.
As we have previously laid out the bear case for the S&P 500 from a historical volatility behavior perspective, this week we will zoom in on other metrics showing why we think the S&P may struggle from here.
The first and most interesting measure,...
G-Morning!
Shorter term yields haven't moved much as of late.
Demand has slowed down & this coincides with the expectation that the #fed will be cutting rates soon.
The 2Yr #yield recently caught up with the strength of the shorter term #InterestRates & looks to be settling in the area just like the others.
On the other end the 10 Yr #yield has been...
Traders,
In my last post I stated that BTC must absorb the price of 26,500 for the bulls to come back out and play again. It did. Now, we are running into the 50 day moving avg. which is acting as resistance and should give those of us seeking re-entry into longs a bit of time to make those entry decisions.
However, I spotted something sus on the U.S....
It's important to keep and eye on the 10 & 2Yr yields.
The inverted #yield curve has huge prediction probability.
BUT
The strongest aspect of this is when it normalizes.
We're not far from that as the10yr has been pumping and the shorter time frames have been pretty stagnant. Now, there's 2 ways this happens.
Soft landing, economy slowly recovers
OR
Lower...
The 10Yr - TVC:TNX and the 2Yr #yield have held pretty steady the last few days.
Won't be shocked if it doesn't do much until the DJ:DJI & TVC:NDQ , "coincidentally", break out of the patterns we've spoken about.
TVC:DXY losing a lil bit of steam. Is it topping again?
The only odd man out is the $VIX.
It's closer to the lower end of range. IMO this is...
The Inverse ETF for the 20-Year US Government Bond is currently breaking out of a Descending Broadening Wedge and is looking to go much higher perhaps between the 61.8% and 78.6% retraces which would be about a 500-1,400% percentage gain which also means that longer end bond yields are going much higher.
I previously said I would repost this chart after the split...
TBT on the 30 minute time frame shows a trend up in an ascending parallel
channel now at the bottom of the channel where it could go up or breakdown
and go under the channel. The ZL MACD suggests some bullish divergence while
the dual TF RS indicator and the ADX oscillator are non-commital.
The immediate recent short term volume profile with a POC line above...
TLDR:
The US 10-Year Treasury Yield and the closely correlated USD/JPY pair can be determinants or signals of market risk. With both breaking their three decade long trends, you have to wonder is a major secular shift upon us.
The USD/JPY currency pair has traditionally had a close correlation with U.S. Treasuries.
The pair shows how many yen are required to buy...
