All my thoughts are on the chart.
For reference, definition of treasuries yield curve:
According to Investopedia, the yield curve graphs the relationship between bond yields and bond maturity. More specifically, the yield curve captures the perceived risks of bonds with various maturities to bond investors.
The U.S. Treasury Department issues bonds with...
A number of string events appear to be shifting the economic landscape around the world of late. Extreme euphoria one year ago ("Economies are booming, time to raise interest rates more"), turned into panic at the end of 2018 with slowdowns across the board. The prompt support provided by US officials (is keeping markets going up their job?), made everyone forget...
This chart depicts the US gold reserves divided by the interest on debt.
The interest on debt is calculated as a proxy by multiplying the 10 year interest rate with the total federal debt.
Whether this is accurate or not is not so important as we just want to compare this ratio with its historic values.
It is important to note that official US gold reserves have...
The yield curve is still in a bear market.
Downward trending resistance at 3.1%
Once that is broken, it could easily go up to 7% which will act as a magnet due to it being a historical support line (1973-1992) and resistance (1992-2000).
This would be disastrous for the US government as interest on debt would rapidly rise.
More fundamental reasons of why the yield...
At the beginning of the year it passed a key level where it was at in April-May of 2018 to maybe show some sign of a bullish reversal incoming. Will be posting a comment with 4HR timeframes to see the consolidation more clearly.
The inverse correlation of Stocks and Bonds have been quite telling in the recent months of equity volatility.
The 10Y yield went from 3.25% in early Nov to lows of 2.55% as participants flew to safety in treasuries.
In the last couple weeks as equities have recovered from the Dec 24th meltdown, treasuries have been sold with yields resting now around...
This chart compares the real yield of 10 year Treasuries (bottom red) to XAUUSD (top). The real yield is the yield that a treasury buyer can expect to earn after inflation (nominal interest rate minus the inflation rate). At a glance there's visibly a strong negative correlation between real rates and the price of gold over time. Research by _Erb and Harvey...
10 year yield is dropping with a quickness to match only stock sell-offs.
Might be a good time to look at some REITS? Rates look to me like they will decline for the next 2-3 years.
Yields hit .382 fib support today and bounced very slightly higher.
News of the end of the Gov shut down could provide the catalyst needed to send yields back to .236 level...
IEF has bounced off of its double top created during the recession. This has created a hard support.
Not only that it has bounced off of it before in a similar fashion between 2013 and 2014.
Volume is dramatically increasing at this level, the moving averages are flattening out.
All of these are bullish signals.
* This information is not a recommendation to...
I believe NASDAQ:TLT is breaking out.
The main thesis I have been following is global slowdown is coming within the next 2 years.
If this occurs the Fed's hand will be forced to stimulate the economy by having constant or lowering rates.
From this we can derive that NASDAQ:TLT must go up since rates and bonds are inversely related.
Finally with NASDAQ:TLT...
This is an attempt to forecast the yield on treasury notes based on technical analysis. Clearly this is an incomplete analysis as fundamentals will also impact heavily. So let us consider the following a base case. First, there are trends in the yield. I would not call it cycles because they have different duration. Those thends tend to last a longer time, more...
$DJI to break into 20K support and depending on the panic enforcing to the market, either break into 18K or settle between 18K-20K supports, thereby all high-caps to have new market caps to be settled.
Please feel free to comment, happy holidays, and trade safe!