Daily is winding up to an inflection point, while the weekly is getting close as well. I'm favoring the bearish break; but there is a chance for a bullish reversal- so time will tell. What I can say is that we're approaching a conclusive point in time that will send price with signifcant momentum in either direction. When I look for an inflection point I watch for...
NASDAQ:TLT seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92. Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts. After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.193, MACD = 0.003, ADX = 38.653) as it crossed above the 1D MA200 again, with the 1D MA50 following right under it, with the two on an emerging 1D Golden Cross. We have anticipated that rebound from the HL of the Channel Up on our previous idea and our medium-term target...
DXY has pulled back a lot as US bonds have ripped to the upside, however it would appear that the Yields may be setting up for a short term bottom which would result in the DXY coming back up. This would align with the Euro coming back down, but I'm not convinced the move up in DXY will be long-lasting, however I do think it will be notable enough to initiate some...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, which we gave a buy signal on last time (January 24, see chart below): Yesterday it touched the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line for the first time since the February 05 break-out. During the previous leg of the 1.5 year Channel Up, the 1D MA50 held all the way until the formation of the...
The IEF (US 7-10 year Treasury ETF), has held on to the 0.382 Fibonacci Retrace aligning with a Long-term and Established Trend line and the 200-Month Simple Moving Average with high amounts of MACD Bullish Divergence and a move above the 0 line on the Oscillators. All of these factors point towards lower yields in the 7-10 Year Treasuries and an increase in par...
TLT (The 20-Year US Treasury Bond ETF) has recently completed the measured move of the Ascending Broadening Wedge Breakdown and has now confirmed a Piercing Line on the 3-Month Chart while closing above the 0.886 Retrace. We can also see that the RSI has begun to break out of its downtrend and these combinations of variables seem to point towards the TLT reversing...
Inflation has come down down, FED is planning to begin cutting rates this year. Interest rates are the highest in the US of any developed country. Long term bonds especially are a good investment here. EDV and TLT both track them and are currently paying a good yield too. I expect these to double from current prices over the decade. The next time things break and...
The SHY ETF is an ETF that holds 1–3 Year US Treasury Bonds and as the yields have gone up this bond ETF has declined. However, in recent times it would seem that this ETF is now trying to confirm a Double Bottom with the test of the 21-week SMA, if it holds we could go p to about $85 which would put a lot of downwards pressure on the bond yields which should...
The South African 10 year bond yield has found support off the intersection of the 200dma and the previous change of polarity point between 9.55%-9.65%. Momentum seems to be shifting up which could see us move back to the top of the range at around 11.16%.
We made good money shorting NASDAQ:TLT into the summer down to the initial target I had of $88. Then we flipped long again and I exited my longs earlier this month on Dec 7th. Now, as you can see from the first chart , we've come up against resistance and I think it's time to flip short again to retest the lows. How low we go is TBD, but I think this move...
Some weeks ago TLT was trading within a Falling Wedge and Double Bottoming at the 0.382 with Bullish Divergence on the Hourly Timeframe and from there rallied to hit its 0.618 Profit Target. Since then, it has come back down just below the level it started at but in doing so has yet again formed Bullish Divergence near the 0.382, this time on higher timeframes. If...
I don't think anyone is expecting this, but I think we're setup for yields to hit new highs this year. The chart indicates yields are breaking out to the upside again, and this move could be a strong one. I think we're setting up to see a new high in yields by November topping somewhere between 5.35%-6.40%. Let's see if it plays out.
Small banks account for about 70% of #commercialrealestate. Small #banks are considered those with assets less than $10B. We've been bearish CRE for a long time. We believe that this sector will likely not get better anytime soon. #interestrates are still holding fairly strong. They are at banking crisis levels or higher. TVC:TNX
Current state of the short and long term #Yield. The 1Yr is underperforming against the 2Yr yield. However, it looks like it wants to push higher. 10Yr vs 30Yr The 10Yr is performing lil better than 30 but....... The 30Yr has a BULLISH short term crossing over longer term moving avg, RSI also looks strong. IMO yields are looking good. Seems like there is still...
Hi Trader! U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Wednesday after an unexpected rise in UK inflation last month and stronger-than-expected U.S. December retail sales data strengthened the case that interest rate cuts will not be as imminent as the market expects. The UK inflation print, as well as more push-back from European Central Bank officials on Wednesday against...
Good Morning Update Looking at the short & long term Bond Yields. Short term (3M & 6M) yields are trading above bank crisis levels. The 1Yr & 2Yr #yield are underneath the crisis levels. The 10Yr is currently at those levels & 30Yr is above said levels. Makes one think....... How much longer can #banks support these levels? CRYPTOCAP:BTC AMEX:GLD ...
Good Morning! Let's get it done! Look at #yield for 1yr - 30Yr. What do you see? Last week we said they looked 2b bottoming out a bit. Do any of these look weak to you? RSI above halfway point, solidifying the possible bottoming process. Short term #Interestrates keep testing the top part of the white line. The more something is tested the weaker it becomes and...