TVC:US10Y versus SP:SPX inverse correlation analysis.
Work in progress indicator for anticipating market trend switches.
Notes:
Emerging correlation identified within US10Y/SPX ratio.
Spikes in ratio (orange vertical line, dotted) aka bond yield ROC/volatility = higher probability of risk-off sentiment (ie big tech & growth stock rotation).
Correlation...
TVC:US10Y chart mapping/analysis.
US10yr bond yields finding bullish reversal off lower range of descending parallel channel (white) - further momentum pending upcoming 10yr auction + US economic data.
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Bullish reaction to macro economic news = continued momentum to break above descending trend-line (white dashed) towards 38.2%...
THOSE LONG TERM TRENDS ARE IMPORTANT.
Remember how the 10 & 30 Yr #yield BROKE daily trends?
Well, they are both still in play, for TVC:TNX it is in better shape.
Let's see how they close.
30 Yr struggling a bit more to recover that close under the trend.
#mortgage rates have also fallen decently.
As I wrote in my last post on TLT, I had a target of $88. $88 was hit on Friday and is now slightly below it today.
I went long both via spot and calls. I took March 15 2024 calls at a $101 strike price and I'm anticipating a large move higher playing out by then.
I've marked off resistance levels on the chart. Let's see how it plays out over the coming...
Economic
Policy needs to remain restrictive or should tighten further, until clear signs of easing inflationary conditions are available.
Technicals
Favor: Strong yearly candle
Favor: Strong M BiMS
Favor: M BiMS after ATL
Favor: Multiple BSL Levels higher
Currently at 10Y High
Expectation
Downside Retracement Targets (careful Short Term)
1 - 2.057% (Y SIBI...
A rare chart pattern second in predictive power to only the famous head and shoulders is the Bump and Run Reversal (BRR) technical pattern.
school.stockcharts.com
If it is so powerful, why is it so unheard of?
1) They are rare. But a recent BRR of very high consequence is the 2022 DXY chart.
2) They usually only occur on high time frames as they measure...
billy-billy-no, soros, rothschild, blackrock, rockie and the creepy ghost of kissinger are pumping money, printing as fools and ripping the market off. Therefore we see the t-note really overbought.
Just do the same like these evils and sell puts on ZN1! january contract at 110,25 strike price and fvckthem. Collect the premium.
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is pulling-back towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and bottom of the Rising Wedge. The pattern is getting too tight and the squeeze will inevitably result in a break-out and new trend/ pattern.
If the Rising Wedge breaks downwards, it will mean the end of the yield's +3.5 year bullish run and will have a high...
The US10Y is approaching an oversold technical state on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 34.650, MACD = -0.086, ADX = 44.537) as selling was accelerated this week after failing to get close to the 1D MA50. The long term pattern is a Channel Up and the decline since Octobet 23rd is the new bearish leg.
The one prior hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the rally and then...
Hello Traders!
The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish...
it measures the price liquidity and volatility of the bond or market
could be the FLOW of FUNDS ahead of the underlying assets in the OPTiONS market
a crystal ball that provides you a 3 week headscarf to POSiTiON scale in or out of your beloved PETS
We might anticipate a strong bullish movement if the bond price successfully rebounds back into the green zone. This is solely my personal opinion and not financial advice. It's crucial to conduct your own research before making any decisions.
In 2022, the stock market took a hit and the US Dollar gained strength due to higher yields in the US. Toward the end of that year, as yields eased off, the US Dollar lost some of its power, and this coincided with a rebound in stock market performance.
Now, as yields are climbing once again, the US Dollar is regaining strength, but it seems like stocks are...
Daily is winding up to an inflection point, while the weekly is getting close as well. I'm favoring the bearish break; but there is a chance for a bullish reversal- so time will tell. What I can say is that we're approaching a conclusive point in time that will send price with signifcant momentum in either direction. When I look for an inflection point I watch for...
