This chart shows IEF/LQD ratio (Inverted) With the SPY overlayed so you can compare how when financial conditions ease (as they are) then the SPY will react as it is, positively.
To begin, I am not a Seasoned Trader; I use this blog for: 1. Record keeping; & 2. Formalizing my thoughts a. If I can't explain simply here, I shldn't engage To begin, my Rules of Engagement ( RoE ) to identify an upside of +3 to 1 Risk to Reward ( “R/R” ); in this case it may yield a 3.1- 3.94 R/R. • Asset | IEF ( iShares 7-20 Year US Gov’t Bond ) • Type |...
This chart is an inverted chart of the IEF/LQD ratio with a SPX (SP500) overlay line chart Not Inverted . This shows the corrrelation to easing conditions and the S&P500. This is what the FOMC is failing at fighting. With QT and rate hikes, this has only had pullbacks. Jawboning too.
Order BUY IEF NASDAQ.NMS Stop 94.67 LMT 94.67 will be automatically canceled at 20230401 01:00:00 EST IEF daily hammer wave 3 of wave 1 uptrend ABC correction is complete at the bottom of mean reversal channel
I will be buying bullish exposure to 7 and 10 year treasuries as a result of topping out inflation and the fed's aggressive actions to kerep it down.
A slide from today's research report, published to clients yesterday evening: Credit Spreads: US Treasuries (IEF ETF) vs Sub-Investment Grade Debt (JNK ETF): Credit spreads have remained subdued however traders should be monitoring the 1.08-1.09 level (pivot zone) for evidence of increased stress which may ultimately be reflected via further moves lower in the...
As you can see the inverted IEF/LQD is a great correlation to the SPX (SP500 market). Makes sense as the fed is failing to tighten financial conditions, actually LOOSENING them somehow. This not only sent equities racing up but also helped set up the conditions to invert the 10-2. The 10-3mo is close behind. Those are sending recession signals even if equities are...
CREDIT SPREADS: IEF vs JNK - In my view, one of the most important charts when considering your risk appetite for equities. Notes on chart.
IEF (7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF ) is hitting a monthly uptrend line which is very likely to cause a short term bounce. On almost all time frames, IEF looks oversold. We are long EIF. - HH
IEF on this ascending scallop has undergone many dumps along the scallops history This is just another one Added a falling wedge pattern for a little flare
This is an elliot wave count of IEF which is the long dated bonds and shows a roadmap for how the long bonds yield will drop below the short term bonds causing a yield curve inversion, signalling a recession (which is already well anticipated by now to those paying attention). When bonds rally in wave 2 it will be violent and fast and will send yields down below...
US Treasuries (IEF ETF) vs Sub-Investment Grade Debt (JNK ETF): Credit spreads have remained subdued however traders should be monitoring the 1.08-1.09 level (pivot zone) for evidence of increased stress which may ultimately be reflected in the equity market.
Finding markets bottoms, adding the new lows and new highs for better see the internal condition of the market
It would be quite a surprise if the next big move in Bonds was PRICE higher, not RATES higher.
The TIP / IEF ratio (reflecting relative strength of Treasury Inflation-Protected securities against T Bonds), having broken thru a declining long-term trend early in 2021, has now advanced to record an 8 year high. The Fed inflation narrative does not appear to be satisfying bond market participants.
In the chart below you have the TIP and IEF the IEF ratio. IEF is Ishares 7-10 year treasury bond ETF and TIP is the TIPs bond etf. On the right side of the chart you have the 10 year inflation breakeven. Now looking at the two you can see that they track pretty closely. Now generally the IEF 7-10 year has a very similar duration to that of the TIP etf. Some...
Trend analysis. Should be a dip in interest rates to cause this. Competing with corporate bonds for money should do it.
If the correlation between the bonds and the stocks is inverse proportionality, we are now expected to see more "longs" in stocks