Macro Monday 30 U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows In essence the U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows (US TIC Flows) refer to the movement of funds into or out of the United States through the purchase or sale of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign investors and governments. These flows of capital are an essential component of the overall...
Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside...
Hello Traders! The FED's monetary policy is not convincing the markets, but Powell seems very determined to meet his inflation targets. In near term, market seems to want to counter this hawkish monetary policy, but that could change going forward. In short term, yields remain at high levels and I don't exclude that this rally could continue for the last bullish...
Good Morning Update Unless this reverses it looks like it is getting stronger. Thought #interestrates were supposedly going down? 10Yr #yield looks very good & the 30 Yr has been pumping for a bit. 2Yr stopped falling, is it bottoming here? US #Dollar pumping as well - TVC:DXY We've been warning.......
Treasury bond - 10Y US Notes came down a lot in the last two years but this cycle can now come to an end as we can see five waves down into 2023 lows ona weekly time frame. In fact, we also see five subwaves completed within wave (5) on a daily chart after prices recovered and break above the trendline resistance. The move is strong, thus we think that more upside...
We move past the US CPI and PPI releases and the market has become even more convinced that the Fed’s easing cycle starts in March, with a 25bp cut priced for every meeting from this starting point. Yield curves are steepening (the US 2’s 30s curve is no longer inverted), driven by the short-end where US 2-year Treasury yields fell for six straight days, losing...
The US10Y is being rejected on the 1D MA200 after a HL rebound at the bottom of the 1 year Channel Up. The 1D technical outlook turned bearish again (RSI = 42.660, MACD = -0.055, ADX = 36.524), same with the 1W timeframe (RSI = 43.184), so this is still an early buy opportunity for the long term. The 1D RSI patterns among the three bottoms so far are similar and...
Good morning update. The TVC:DJI is still within the range. Logical as investors are awaiting CPI on Thursday. This will guide on cuts to #InterestRates. The SP:SPX showing some strength & currently in small trend higher. But the CLOSING is VERY IMPORTANT. Day range is nice but always respect the closing. TVC:VIX is weakening again. TVC:RUT is still...
This is comparing between the super trend of the S&P 500 (Cash) index and the US 10 year bond yields. Previously, for a good 35 years, bond yields and equities shared a strong positive correlation. (1951 to 1986) Then correlation swung the other way and for the next 37 years, we started seeing negative correlation. Falling yields with equities continuing the...
it measures the price liquidity and volatility of the bond or market could be the FLOW of FUNDS ahead of the underlying assets in the OPTiONS market a crystal ball that provides you a 3 week headscarf to POSiTiON scale in or out of your beloved PETS
HAPPY NEW YEAR! 🎉 US Treasury markets are more than the combined bond markets of Germany, Japan, China, UK, France, and Italy = HUGE. This is why US #Bond market is important to keep track of. Short term #interestrates has been the weakest in a LONG TIME 1Yr & 2Yr charts look similar. US Debt 2ys & less have been weakening & look like they still want to...
The 10 year & 30 Yr #yield are at support levels. Looking at Daily charts: The longer term, 30Yr, looks better than TVC:TNX (10Yr) Looking at Weekly charts: The 10Yr support level looks strongest @ 3.3%. All sorts of support levels and trendlines were broken recently. The 30 Yr trendline is certainly broken & Strong Support is found here.
QQQ / SPY New Closing Daily High Semiconductors Mixed * Transports weak DXY & Yields Continuing Lower
The yellow resistance zone is expected to be pivotal for the stock markets. Although some indices appear close to ATHs, the presented spread graph suggests the intrinsic value of the US stock market isn't even half of the previous highs. Same graph with monthly candlesticks: Fundamentally: Although rate cuts are expected, historically they mark the...
TLT is at a very well-defined resistance level and overbought. The MACD is also elevated to the same level where we last saw a steep reversal in the price of TLT. To short TLT, I suggest the triple inverse ETN of TLT called TMV.
Yesterday, a 10-year bond portfolio was created in the market. The goal is to maximize profit when the price is between $109 and $110 by the expiration date of January 17, 2024. This one requires careful observation.
What a turnaround for ALL the MAJOR averages! As we've been saying over and over again....... The END OF DAY IS WHAT MATTERS!!! *Indices formed an OUTSIDE DAY* Outside days can signify 2 things: CONTINUATION OR REVERSAL (of the current trend) Being that the day ended lower, LIGHT VOLUME though, we will take this as a WARNING!!!!!!! RSI fell pretty hard,...
Global Central Bank Balance Sheet denominated in USD has broken the uptrend line down almost 16% or $5 trillion which is about 5% of Global GDP. Why does that matter to you? Because there are $5 trillion more bonds available that have been invested in the bond market which takes away from other asset classes. While global debt has skyrocketed (meaning more ...