30-Year US Gov't Bond Yields since 1977

Oct 5, 2023

Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations.

I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside those boxes:

1. 1987 Stock Market Crash on collapsing USDollar, hiked capital gains taxes starting in 1988, trade wars with Germany, S&L crisis brewing from 1986 real estate tax law change, and Congressional moves to eliminate interest rate deductions on takeovers.

2. Orange County Bankruptcy

3. Great Financial Crisis "GFC" - massive deleveraging of the banking industry forcing asset prices down in a collapse.

4. Covid reaction by Gov't to shut economy down and stimulate spending and handouts to keep economy afloat

5. Current over-reaction to over-stimulation during lockdowns and supply chain issues.

Oct 18, 2023

Note

Yields right into the heart of the 9-year sideways (2003-2011's) range of interest rates, a massive consolidation area and very likely to be resisted at these levels. The level of interest rates has severely curtailed long term borrowing demand and reduced demand for cars, houses and even solar-panel systems. The overall economy is flat and running on fumes of demand.
Time will tell.
October 18, 2023 10:14AM EST 4.987 last TYX

Jan 19, 2024

Note

So far, the range and movement of TYX is right on track to what I had laid out here back in October of 2023 at a time when there was panic about rising interest rates. Expect more choppy sideways action from here to continue the guess.

January 19, 2024

Jan 19

Note

For some reason the chart doesn't include my comments and forecast (guess) which I spent a fair amount of time putting together for everyone. If you click "Grab this chart" you will see for yourself that the link above is untouched from the original publication.

So far the 2-year guess is very close to correct, which in the world of forecasting interest rates must be the top 1% of all forecasters.

If you found this chart to be useful in any way, please share it to get the word out about TradingView.

Cheers,

Tim January 19, 2026 3:10PM EST

Feb 26

Trade active

Here we are another month later and this guess is still "on track".

Please share it if you feel it is worth it.

Tim February 26, 2026 11:00AM EST