As most commodities are currently collapsing, it is very hard to keep believe that inflation is going to go higher from here. June could be the first month with a negative MoM CPI print, but it probably won't be the last. As deflation is taking inflation's seat, bonds have been looking attractive for some time. Essentially we got a blow of top in yields...
Quaaludes.
Stumble Cookies as we used to refer to them.
Half a dozen in a pitcher of Beer and it was down
to the ground.
Ah, the good old days, when Mommy's suffering from
manic depression we're Sub'd these little ones.
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Bond Vigilantes might be suffering from Sopor Ingestion.
If so, please - the...
My answer is most likely. Technically we will see 110.96 hold (GREEN) and make a push higher above 111.26 & 111.72.
Fundamentally, it's likely we have peaked in terms of inflation. Many measures suggest that is the case and sentiment is skewed towards being too bearish on Notes/rates. Certainly a contrarian play, but not just for the sake of being contrarian.
How the Fed manages another slug of $20B in 10 Year purchases... it won't last.
Every flight to safety has been met with one outcome.
Wreckage.
We began TLT ZN ZB Sells @ 2% Friday.
Scale up, Scale in for round 2 of eating the Dinosaurs.
TLT may have already bottomed out & the US10Y topped out with weekly hammer candles. TLT may find equilibrium at 132, my inflation pivot zone while US10Y may stabilize at 3.6% inflection point retesting its upchannel.
TLT is now completing its M-pattern & has just entered my bullish BUY ZONE at 114 to 120. DCA Dollar cost averaging up from this point presents a...
Complete Wreckage.
Eddie Munster and Crew swing missed and
the bat came around, knocking them out.
It's over Bond Queens.
An amazing representation of Failure, is TLT.
Junk & Co remains Junk.
007s who bought the dip...
Ripped.
It's now a comedy and further evidence...
Throwing Capital into a toxic cesspool does not produce
a Hulk, Spiderman, or Marvel Character who defies the laws
of common sense.
Buy this Chart and LOSE.
The 007s are back, we know full well what that means.
Gap to Trap the Safety Trade Baggies again.
They never learn.
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CDs - 3/6 Months @ 2.10 and 2.20, Yr @ 3.30, 4/5Yr @ 3.40....
If ya believe, load the woodshed.
Prior to making the same mistake for the 4t time, ask yourselves
one simple question - why are...
Quick chart comparing TLT (INVERTED) with USO to show they trade exact opposite of each other.
Oil go down, TLT go up.
The world is collectively fighting inflation.
Inflation literally does not come down unless oil prices come down.
TLT has printed a nice traditional bottoming tale. the 20 year yield is quite overbought and now its time to go down (hence TLT goes up). At the very least we should be retesting 100 day EMA
iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF Review
NASDAQ: TLT
They have at their disposal the trend since 2007 as well as a key support zone.
Thank you for your support, greetings.
L.E.D in Spain as of 06/21/2022
Alright, interesting candle on the one week on TLT :
In my opinion this is a Takuri Line. The body is small and the close happens near the high (I am not 100% satisfied with this classification since it has an upper shadow but it is 16% of overall candle). The lower shadow is more than three times the body length (3.37). So it fits the takuri line definition....
US10Y TNX may be topping out. It is both a measure of economic activity & inflation expectation. So is the economy starting to slow down or is inflation slowing down shortterm? It will take years for inflation to come down. If the FED can pull inflation down to at least 4% in a soft landing, it will already be a big success. Stagflation (rising inflation in a...
We was looking for a 5th wave and it appears we are getting it. Once 61.8 is reached, will need to monitor to see if it holds or we continue pushing lower to the 78.6. Seems there are few safe assets these days as liquidity is drying up.
