### Market Analysis: TVC:US10Y Nears Crucial Pivot Point
#### Critical Juncture for the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield ( TVC:US10Y ) is currently at a pivotal position that could significantly influence market sentiment. This important pivot point is marked by a specific blue line on the chart, serving as a key indicator for...
Caught in the twin grip of elevated US yields and a stronger USD, Gold may be on the defensive over the near term unless geopolitical risks still escalate.
Escalating geopolitical and trade risks are playing an increasingly supportive role in Gold prices, engineering rallies that are likely to stay high in 2024.
Gold Price Clinging to Highs Under $2'000. The...
US stocks surprised much of Wall Street this year with a strong run that defied decades-high interest rates and recession calls. The rally was fueled by slower inflation and hype over artificial intelligence.
But more recently, the Federal Reserve's unwavering higher-for-longer rate stance and a deepening bond-market rout have had a sobering effect on equities...
... for a .32 credit.
Comments: Rolling down and out where it makes sense; out "as is" where it doesn't. Collected .83 originally (See Post Below). With the .32 here, 1.15 total.
I'm generally looking to try to avoid taking on shares above my current cost basis for the shares I've been assigned already and/or to take on shares at the best possible price that...
Comments: Targeting the strikes paying around 1% of the strike price in credit at strikes better than what I currently have on. The basic bet here: that interest rates decline ... at some point.
(And, yes, it's been a somewhat painful trade so far ... ).
December 15th 77: .85 credit
January 19th 75: .84 credit
The NASDAQ:TLT , or the 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF, appears to be undergoing a significant shift in its trend dynamics based on your description. Here's a breakdown of what you're observing:
1. **Bearish to Bullish Reversal**: This indicates that the ETF, which was previously in a downtrend (bearish phase), is showing signs of reversing to an uptrend (bullish...
US Bonds probably the "Most Highly Bought Bonds" by any Countries's govermnt in the world (as safe haven). Time to buy US Bond ETF? E.g TLT, AGG, IEF etc?. What do you think saving money in US FIXED deposit bank aiming for 5% +/- gain ( while waiting for US dolar depreciate against most currencies pair) or buying US Bonds ( which is the inverse of US Bonds...
In the absence of some kind of face-ripping rally, I'm going to be assigned shares in TLT here shortly, starting with what began as an October 20th 93 short put and an October 20th 89 short put. Here, I'm using short puts as an acquisitional tool, attempting to acquire shares in multi-year weakness, after which I'll proceed to cover the shares with short calls. ...
20-YEAR AMERICAN TREASURY BONDS: SHARK detected.
We are in a potential turnaround zone.
The EMA.200 and EMA.50 are possible targets, as well as the red PRZ above.
To watch, as well as the ICHIMOKU / Bollinger / Fibonacci Levels
In December 2022, Howard Marks told in an interview that a "sea change" is underway in markets.
When I have seen below charts of TVC:US10Y , I have remembered that interview:
(Unfortunately I needed to remove the graph due to lacking reputation points. Maybe you can view with //x/HZKlWa8U )
TVC:US10Y was in a downtrend in a channel since 1980 and this...
I am accumulating TLT, I have accumulated in the areas: 83,84,85,86,87 and I will continue to accumulate as long as the price remains below 92.
Over 92, I will stop accumulating.
Macro speaking, we have this falling wedge and once the interest rate cuts on the dollar will start, I expect TLT to react positively.
First of all, we need uS10years to start a correction.
"The TVC:US10Y Negative Divergence Played Out as we observed a scenario where the momentum indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), had been showing bearish divergence with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield. This indicated a potential weakening of the yield's upward momentum, despite higher prices initially. Subsequently, the divergence 'played out'...
The chart posted is the VIX of the VIX the VVIX has the cycle which I stated on monday and friday last week a short squeeze is now setup as the13.8 to 15.2 week decline would see a sharp rally. And that the IYT RSP BA and TNX were making a ending of a 5WAVES pattern we are only going to see an ABC rally and the last 5 days have been wave A so...
... for an .85 credit.
Comments: Another that can't be meaningfully strike improved without paying a debit ... . Collected .75 originally (See Post Below). With the .85 here, 1.60 total.
And that ... ends the November contract housekeeping portion of our show. Unfortunately, I'll probably have to do some more of this in the December contract (ugh).