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TLT

Is the Bond Market Starting to Call the BluffDespite persistent concerns around inflation, deficits, and Treasury issuance, TLT has quietly reclaimed its 50-day moving average and begun establishing a series of higher highs and higher lows. If inflation expectations continue to moderate, the bond market may be signaling that rates have less upside than many investors believe. The next area I’m watching is resistance near 86. A break above that level would strengthen the case that long-duration Treasuries are beginning to price a different macro environment. Key assets to watch alongside TLT Crude Oil (inflation expectations) Treasury Yields (TNX) U.S. Dollar (DXY) Together they may provide a clearer picture of where rates head next. One of the ways I view markets is through the relationship between asset classes rather than in isolation. Crude oil is a good example. When oil prices rise, investors often begin to reassess inflation expectations. If inflation is expected to remain elevated, Treasury yields can move higher, which tends to create pressure on long-duration bonds such as TLT. Conversely, if oil prices begin to cool, inflation expectations may ease as well. That can support lower yields and improve the outlook for long-duration Treasuries. This is one reason I have been paying close attention to TLT’s recent strength. After reclaiming its 50-day moving average, the bond market may be signaling that inflation expectations are becoming more contained than many investors anticipated. While no single asset tells the entire story, I believe monitoring crude oil, Treasury yields, and TLT together can provide valuable insight into where the broader macro environment may be headed. Educational information not to be used as financial or investment advice
NASDAQ:TLTEducation
by DanielForester_Trades
4
iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond (Updated) | TLT | Long in the $80sThis is a brief update of the original write-up for NASDAQ:TLT : There is one, final price gap for NASDAQ:TLT below the current price that will likely be closed before a true move up. This gap has been open since 2004. The price for NASDAQ:TLT will have to reach $81.81 for it to be closed. I will be going in even heavier at the point at which it is closed. I am still regularly buying NASDAQ:TLT in the $80s. Current average sits at $86.26. I haven't sold since my original entry in July 2024. Current dividend yield is 4.60%. This is my "bear market" investment strategy. I am preparing for it early. There will be a time (but I don't know the precise moment) when there will be a flight out of equities and into bonds as the market tips over into bearville. The Prediction I suspect this scenario may unfold: Trump, being informed that recession is in the works, will push the new Fed Chair to lower interest rates to boost the economy *while* the stock market is still very high. While the "government has no influence over the Central Bank decisions," they kind of do when the man in charge has been appointed by the President... As interest rates drop, money will flow into NASDAQ:TLT giving it a boost into to $90s / low $100s. Stocks may dip, but not crash. The Fed will have lowered rates to fast, though, fueling inflation even more, and then... at some time... reality around AI, the economy, lack of jobs, etc sets in and boom goes the bust. When this happens, equities will crash and money will flow rapidly into NASDAQ:TLT boosting it to new highs. Maybe this won't happen. I hope not, but there seems to be signs within the government to "push interest rates lower". This dip in NASDAQ:TLT is likely a position grab by the big players to get in low. Currently priced at $83.84. That's the end of my spiel. Not investment advice. Targets into 2029 $90 (+7.4%) $100 (+19.3) Future update for higher targets. If you like this idea, please follow for more: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by WorthlessViews
TLT July 90 Covered CallsA continuation of a long-running core position in TLT (See Post Below) where I'm looking to generate 10% annualized in free cash flow as a function of buying power effect in short call premium and dividends. As of May 1st, the setup had an 82.19 break even on a buying power effect of 85.35/contract, and I rolled the July -90C's out to the August '89's for a .49/contract credit, resulting in a break even of 81.70, .49 ($49) free cash flow to date, and a .57% ROC to date as a function of buying power effect. The May 1st distribution was .315346/share, resulting in .81 ($81) free cash flow to date, a .95% ROC at date as a function of buying power effect, and a break even of 81.38 (including dividends).
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
1
Long $TLT $97 to $120?Everyone is betting on rates going higher and I see the opposite happening. Rates look like they're topping here, and this coincides with NASDAQ:TLT bottom. If we look at the chart, we're retesting a major support area here and I think it's going to lead to a reaction that sends TLT higher. If we end up breaking the trend line, which I think we will the next time we test it, it'll lead to a sharp move in TLT higher. How high? I've marked off resistance levels on the chart, but I think it could easily break $100 on the next move and potentially go all the way up to $120. I think this will be a bounce within a bear trend, not a change of direction. Macro, I think we're in a higher rate environment over the long term, but if you time this well, you should be able to capitalize on a large bounce. Largely I think now is a good time to go into safer assets (like TLT) and scale out of equities.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by benjihyam
2
Opening (IRA): TLT May 15th -83P... for a .91 credit. Comments: I don't know that I really need more TLT shares, but wouldn't mind picking them up if they're cheap or they reduce my cost basis in the stock aspect of my covered call setup. Here, targeting the 52-week low in the expiry that is paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. This is a bit long-dated, but I don't have much on here, so am fine with hanging out in the trade longer than I would usually. Metrics: Max Profit: .91 ($91) Buying Power Effect: 82.09 ROC at Max: 1.11% Will look to ladder out at the 83 strike, so long as it's paying >1% of the strike price in credit.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by NaughtyPines
TLT: NO ONE is betting on thisI don't call recessions and I'm not calling one now. But I do call charts. And this chart is saying something never seen before in NASDAQ:TLT history but a setup I've seen infrequently but often enough in tickers. TLT is within the longest bear market to consolidation transition in its history. Six years of downtrend from the 2020 highs into a 2.4-year consolidation between $82.42 and $101.64. That's never happened in this ETF. Not even close. Look at the daily structure. What jumps out isn't the range — it's the compression. The 60-day range just squeezed to $4.43. That's the tightest it's been during the ENTIRE 2.4-year consolidation. Price is coiling. The longer a consolidation lasts and the tighter it gets, the more violent the move when it breaks. This isn't my opinion — it's how markets work. Price abhors a consolidation. And where is price sitting right now? At the 52-week 50% retracement. To the penny. $88.69 level, price at $88.73. The 2H Spike — My Timing Element This is how I found the trade. My spike indicator fired on the 2-hour chart right at the 52-week 50% level. For those unfamiliar with how I use spikes: they're not signals to blindly buy. They're attention grabbers. The spike says "something is happening here" and then I look at the structure around it to decide if it's worth a trade. In this case: spike at 50%, inside the tightest consolidation in history, with IV at 12.7% (near the floor for TLT options). If this thing moves, not only do I benefit from direction — I get a vega kicker as implied volatility expands. The options market is pricing in "nothing will happen." That's exactly when I want to be long options. If price breaks below the spike next week, I know my timing wasn't perfect. That's the beauty of a defined-risk entry. 2019: What "can" happen TLT *can* move. The market seems to have forgotten. Now here's why I care about this consolidation breaking. Pull up TLT in 2019. From June to September, TLT rallied from $121 to $148 — a +22% move in three months. Flight to quality during recession fears + a Fed pivot. I looked at 22 TLT rallies of 8%+ since 2003. The median rally: +10.9% in 47 days. 73% of them reached +10%. Nearly a third reached +12%. I'm not predicting a 2019-style move. But I am positioning to be there if it happens. Because after 6 years of bear market and the tightest consolidation in TLT history... if this breaks up, it could be the biggest bond move in years. The Trade LEAPS. Jan 2027 $91 Calls. 315 days to expiry. Defined risk — max loss is the premium paid, nothing more. No margin. No stress. Just a position that says: I think bonds can move, nobody else does, and the options are cheap enough that the risk/reward is asymmetric. If TLT rallies 10% to ~$97.60, these calls are worth roughly 3.7x my entry. If I'm wrong, I lose the premium and move on. Price abhors a consolidation. Especially one this long.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by norok
30-Year US Gov't Bond Yields since 1977Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside those boxes: 1. 1987 Stock Market Crash on collapsing USDollar, hiked capital gains taxes starting in 1988, trade wars with Germany, S&L crisis brewing from 1986 real estate tax law change, and Congressional moves to eliminate interest rate deductions on takeovers. 2. Orange County Bankruptcy 3. Great Financial Crisis "GFC" - massive deleveraging of the banking industry forcing asset prices down in a collapse. 4. Covid reaction by Gov't to shut economy down and stimulate spending and handouts to keep economy afloat 5. Current over-reaction to over-stimulation during lockdowns and supply chain issues.
TVC:TYX
by timwest
8
How Intermarket Signals Could Help to Avoid Major CrashesThree Crashes, One Pattern I've been testing whether intermarket analysis can help avoid major drawdowns when selling weekly puts. Here's what the data shows across three very different market crashes: COVID Crash (Feb-Mar 2020) Drop: -914.75 points (-22.87%) Duration: 29 bars, 41 days Signal: BEAR fired in mid-February, BEFORE the crash The macro composite dropped sharply as bonds rallied (flight to safety), credit weakened, and VIX exploded. The signal went red weeks before the worst of the selling. 2022 Bear Market (Jan-Jul 2022) Drop: -837.25 points (-15.25%) Duration: 137 bars, 199 days Signal: BEAR fired in early January, stayed red through most of the decline This was a slow grind lower as the Fed tightened. The indicator stayed in BEAR mode for most of the year, keeping me flat during the worst of it. Notice how the red background covers almost the entire decline. April 2025 Tariff Crash Drop: -770.25 points (-13.35%) Duration: 6 bars, 10 days Signal: BEAR fired in late March, BEFORE the drop The fastest of the three crashes - just 10 days. But the macro signals still deteriorated first. Credit (JNK) weakened, volatility spiked, and the composite crossed below its signal line before price collapsed. The Pattern Three different causes (pandemic, Fed tightening, tariffs). Three different timeframes (41 days, 199 days, 10 days). But in each case, the macro signals deteriorated BEFORE equities fell hard. The Core Idea Markets don't move in isolation. Before major equity drawdowns, stress often appears first in: TLT (Bonds) - Flight to safety begins JNK (Credit) - High-yield weakens as credit risk gets priced DXY (Dollar) - Strengthens as risk-off flows accelerate VIX (Volatility) - Fear builds in the options market The indicator normalizes each market using z-scores (standard deviations from 1-year average), then combines them: Macro Score = (TLT + JNK) - (DXY + VIX) When this composite trends down and crosses its signal line, conditions favor caution. When it trends up and crosses above, conditions favor risk. Why This Matters for Put Sellers Selling weekly puts has attractive math: 90%+ win rate, consistent premium. But the losses when they come are brutal (600% stop loss). One bad week can erase months of gains. The question isn't IF a crash will happen. It's whether you're holding short puts when it does. My 5-year backtest on ES 7DTE puts - using TastyTrades backtester: Without Macro Filter: 357 trades | 96.1% win rate Total P/L: +$63,492 Max Drawdown: 10.30% Profit Factor: 2.90 With Macro Filter: 200 trades | 96.0% win rate Total P/L: +$33,636 Max Drawdown: 2.91% Profit Factor: 3.51 Key finding: 72% reduction in maximum drawdown. Yes, fewer trades means less total profit. But avoiding the tail risk changes everything about position sizing and sleep quality. Current Status: A Challenging Environment Right now (January 2026), we're in a consolidation range. The macro score is hovering near flat, and with the 7-day EMA setting, signals are flipping almost weekly. This is exactly the environment where the indicator struggles: Range-bound price action No clear macro trend Frequent signal changes (whipsaws) Difficult to follow systematically I'm being transparent about this because it's real. The indicator seems to work well for catching major regime shifts but generates noise during consolidation phases. Work in Progress This is not a finished system. It's a research framework I'm actively developing. Areas I'm exploring: Signal method variations - The indicator offers 7 different methods (EMA Cross, Slope, Momentum, Multi-Confirm, etc.). Some may handle consolidation better. Longer smoothing periods - The current 7-day EMA is responsive but whipsaw-prone. Testing longer periods for range markets. Regime detection - Adding logic to identify trending vs ranging environments and adjust sensitivity. Combining with price filters - Using EMA20 or other price-based filters as secondary confirmation. The goal is to reduce false signals during consolidation while maintaining the ability to catch major turns. What It Catches vs. What It Doesn't Works well for: Major regime shifts with clear macro deterioration Gradual credit/bond stress building over days or weeks Events like COVID, 2022 bear market, April 2025 tariff crash Struggles with: Range-bound, choppy markets (like now) Overnight gaps from surprise news Idiosyncratic moves unrelated to macro Short-term whipsaws in flat macro environments How I'm Using It (Current Approach) 1. Check the indicator before opening new put positions 2. Clear RISK-ON (green, rising): Full position size 3. Clear RISK-OFF (red, falling): No new positions or reduce exposition The "flat/choppy" category is new - I'm adding nuance rather than treating it as binary. When macro is unclear, I'd rather miss premium than get caught in a whipsaw. The Honest Tradeoff What you give up: Fewer trades = less total premium False signals in consolidation Missed rallies when flat Requires discipline to follow What you gain: Avoided COVID crash: -22.87% Avoided 2022 bear: -15.25% Avoided April 2025: -13.35% Significantly better risk-adjusted returns Ability to size up when conditions are clearly favorable For me, avoiding those three crashes was worth the whipsaws in between. Your risk tolerance may differ. Try It Yourself I've published the indicator with multiple signal methods so you can test what works for your approach: EMA Cross (what I use) - Classic crossover Slope - Simple trend direction Momentum - Rate of change threshold Multi-Confirm - Requires 4+ methods to agree (more conservative) Indicator in related ideas below. What's Next I'll continue refining this approach and will share updates as I find improvements. Specific things I'm testing: Longer EMA periods for the signal line Adding a "flat zone" where macro is inconclusive Combining macro with price structure (above/below key MAs) Different parameter sets for trending vs ranging markets If you have ideas or are working on something similar, drop a comment. This is open research, not a black box. Final Thought Three crashes. Three different causes. Three times the macro signals warned before price collapsed. Is it perfect? No - the current consolidation proves that. But when the big moves come, they tend to show up in credit, bonds, and volatility first. I'd rather deal with some whipsaws during flat markets than be holding short puts when the next -15% hits. --- What macro signals do you watch? How do you handle range-bound environments? Let me know in the comments.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by luiscaballero
TLT surpressed alot can we push higherHi, i want to show you my TLT chart As i found a very common pattern, named the Adam and Eve as you see highlighted in red brush, we could have an enormous pump on the 20year Bond ETF coming this week. Closing price today was higher as the daily start and the aftermarket closed at 90,36 which shows strength. No trading advice, just my 2 Cents. Lets see what markets do. BTW 27th NYSE is closed but on 28th we can trade till 1pm NY Time. Good luck coinwide
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by coinwide
1
CREDIT CRISISWe are beginning to see evidence of a credit crisis starting. low demand for US bonds can trigger a currency crisis for the USD, higher rates will lead to refinancing company problems (especially with all the zombie companies that should have blown up over a decade ago.) and major economic depression-style job losses. Currently, we are very early stages but things are moving at lightning speed on a macroeconomic level. I know this is likely gibberish to most here pon trading view but it is of MASSIVE importance to your trading and investing. CAUTION IS IN ORDER!! Click boost, follow, and subscribe! I can help you navigate these crazy times.
JLong
by RealMacro
7
TLT - A long-term outlookIf price is moving up, we look for support structure, which in this case is a Real Swing Low (RSL). An RSL is confirmed when the most recent Real Swing High (RSH) is broken. What we’re seeing here is the beginning of a stair-step move to the upside, including short-term support. Even the CIB has been broken, which suggests that a shift in market behavior is underway. Our statistical probability of hitting the centerline is roughly 80%. That implies we can look for a longer-term play in TLT. However, keep a close eye on the 1/4 line. It isn’t exactly friendly, as the rejections we’ve seen so far make clear. I probably go with ITM LEAP options with a Delta of around 70–80 and a over 120 DTE. Happy profits, and for those in the U.S., wishing you a happy Thanksgiving.
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by HowToChart
2