Long story short. New highs incoming.
I went long today before VIX loses its mind from the good ole "EVERYTHINGS GANA CRASH" people and premiums on calls/puts go wild.
---Indicators:
RSI is trending up. not over bought yet.
Gold sold off hard today. Still down trending off a massive weekly resistance
TLT had money go into it and its rise got smacked back down...
This trend line in $TLT has held 4 times since late-'18, the last time crossing at horizontal support. RSI remains positive with a breakout & retest. This is one possible wave count, but rising support is key here.
TLT is a 20+ year bond ETF that made strong highs throughout the rate-cutting cycle and rightfully so. The inversion of bonds vs the equity market has caused bond yields to drop and because of that since the price of bonds is directly inversely correlated to their yields, prices in TLT and other bonds have been increasing. The low rates have come to a halt as the...
Sell bonds signal is very extended similar to Operation Twist era. I guess we are waiting for a catalyst to start the spike higher. Bonds are a long term sell here
The cross is using the 20 and 50 exponential moving average.
$136.5 --- short term support
If we brake down, the next support is close to the 200SMA ($130).
The rate cut tomorrow with Powell's speech will most likely move this indicator.
TLT has fallen back down near support. This area is also an intersection of the triangle support line & the horizontal level, formerly resistance but now acting as support.
TLT has pulled back to a very key trend line with additonal supports coming in below. On the hourly chart, we have positive divergence on TLT meaning we should see upside soon in the short term. Given the postures of the markets and how treasuries act as a flight to safety asset, it is reasonable to assume they will go up in price as stocks fall.
For this trade,...
We are in a consolidation, currently in possible wave B of (4) and should soon see a push lower for wave C to around 133 before going back up again one more time for wave (5) before we see any deep retracement.
Notice that waves 4 are tricky as they can take any form of corrective pattern, zigzag, triangle or flat.
One more option is that wave 4 is in at 136 and...
TLT been on a tear to the downside with how bullish SPY has been. I like this one to the upside if SPY settles and drops back to EMAs. TLT also about to touch the 89d EMA which has always been a great buy area.
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