To trade the markets you have to be AWARE of the world and what is going on. We have to read the news every day but we should not always take what people are saying at face value. The news is never a leading indicator but it can at times be an INVERSE indicator. Don't get played by big money "talking their position" ...
In this video we look at examples of...
Idea for US30Y:
- Bond yields dropping rapidly.
- Bonds are being bought up for 1 of 2 reasons:
(1) Investors are afraid and would rather hold negative yielding bonds than other risk assets.
(2) We are experiencing deflation, despite the media blaring inflation.
Hello traders and investors!
Today we will talk about TLT treasury bond in which we see very interesting development.
We are observing a bigger A-B-C correction, where a five-wave decline within wave C looks to be unfinished. Currently we are tracking a three-wave A-B-C correction within wave 4) that can stop at the strong trendline connected from the highs, so...
We are watching a capitulation of long dated bonds in real time. Today's huge gap down of -2% breaking last week's lows is actually perfectly in line with TLT seasonality for the past 16 years. This is no coincidence as the March 2009 - March 2010 sequence in bonds is very similar to the March 2020 - March 2021 sequence. The Q1 FOMC in the 3rd week is usually a...
We have break out of what appears to be a bear flag on TLT today. Next level of support after this break up appears to be around $128 and $122.
CPI report today confirms fears of inflation, thus bonds prices will fall and yields will rise.
Discretionary vs. Staples = Economy Bullish / Economy Bearish
Ratio rising = Discretionary > Staples
Ratio falling = Discretionary < Staples
Often a leading indicator of the 10yr yield (TNX)
Will continue to track this potential new signal.
This chart shows a very clear and strong trend on TLT on a multi-year basis. Every time the price hits the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (1W time-frame), it finds a long-term Support and rises. This is accompanied by a MACD Bullish Cross. See who the Channel's Fibs are also playing their role as Supports. Can this be the new long-term Support in TLT's attempt...
Here is a chart showing TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) vs TLT long-dated bonds.
As inflation fears rise TIPS outperforms TLT . (Color RED)
As the CRB commodity Index rose (Color Blue) TIPS outperformed TLT .
Now that the CRB INDEX is hitting 12-year resistance area it is likely to at least pause along with
inflation fears. If the...
Without too much noise, interest rates appear to be creeping up. In comparing with other trading instruments I watch, it appears to have the biggest potential for a move. As the rising rates indicate an increase in inflation, I've also had my eyes on a few commodities. Inflation has too long been downplayed but we all know the reality of inflation because we...
With a stronger dollar surging into the markets, expect anything against the dollar to retrace for a pullback. I am overall bearish on DXY. but for the meantime expect institutions to buy into TLT expecially after this month's Fed decision on Rates.
Thoughts and ideas are my own view.
Now, I've been in a trade on TLT for a little while now. About 2 weeks. It's quite obvious there's a couple things going on here:
1. A reduction of downward momentum that ended in mid-March.
2. A move up followed by a corrective move to the downside which did not make a new low
3. Our indicators indicated we were about to...
Bond Fund TLT has formed what is an ideal reverse head and shoulders formation. I am waiting for a break of the neckline before going long. This is on the back of continued FED accommodation and some early signs that inflation is cooling off. It might be time for bonds to shine for a while.