... for a .07/contract credit.
Taking a directional shot here at long-term horizontal support, with some flexibility to roll the short put aspect down in the event I'm wrong.
Notes: Will roll the short put aspect "as is" on 50% decrease in value and look to exit for 20% the width of the spread in profit.
B = 50% Retrace of XA Leg
C = Still forming but should start to slow down and head upward to D
D = Green boxes are profit targets 1 and 2, then yellow is potential reversal zone
Long entry until "CD" leg completes.
While the SP trendline is going down, TLT trendline is going up. A weak stab at making a 3-day test of the low, holding the rising trendline, bonds will continue to surprise and continue higher.
Reiterating a bearish view on HSI. Looking at candles and wanted to point out a few bearish instances I have noticed. With markets more globalized and intertwined than ever, I see no way SPX DJI NDX IXIC hold up if Asia tanks... which is why I'm short SPY DE TSLA IWM and long UVXY (all with options, of course).
S&P 500 getting rejected for retest at the weekly neckline. VIX is also forming a double bottom. TLT and treasuries in general got smashed today. Risk on!
The extent of the bond rally last summer lines up nicely with the .618 fib retracement shown here and gives us a target heading into the end of May. Almost like someone planned it that way. Possibly wait for a pull-back to the blue-line if going long.
3-year large head & shoulders top forming, with a minor H&S comprising the right shoulder (completed).
The large pattern almost completed in February, but didn't.
Has since reversed up to prior resistance.
Entry now with a small position using a stop over last week's high.
Or wait for the pattern to complete.
Bonds surged today as economic news pushed interest rates down. Despite looming Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, bonds defied expectations and continued rising. It was no mystery however as prices recently fell below the head and shoulders neckline above 122. As price broke through 122 today, touching the neckline, many technicians view this as a sell ...
Some are surprised that the "flight to safety" from the recent equity market slide has not occurred. Market instruments often follow their own beat. Soon though TLT may be exhibiting a surge, possibly seemingly caused by further stock market weakness. The waves however indicate that a powerful third wave of a larger third wave may be ready to propel TLT prices ...
TLT treasury bonds are at a huge support, potentially forming a massive top... A break below the neckline would possibly have huge bearish implications.
