Whether it is bitcoin, SPACs, shorted meme stocks, Tesla or other heavily priced in Growth stocks (High Price/Book value), all of these speculative assets have one common factor, that is the cheapness/availability of money. However, this may all change if in the next 2-3 readings inflation pressure are proven to be persistent. Relatively, will be a very in-detail...
Just a fast idea about correlation between SPX500 (US500) and TLT.
I'm more bearish than bullish over Sp500, however I just find out TLT correlation with market. Just read more...
I was expected a major drop here in September, but seems not strong enough.
My other target is around March / April. Why? Because of...
The 10y-2y bond yields are important because it is the long-short of market expectations; that is, how people view the near-term market vs. their perceived evolution of the market (that also anticipates the FOMC's likely reaction. It's several signals in one). The 10y2ys (blue) is the 10 year Treasury constant maturity (now at 0.96%) Minus the 2-Year Treasury...
Not really sure what to make of this just yet, but the 10Y yield definitely appears to be heading higher. Ironically enough, this is happening amid a #fed that is committed (at least in the near term) to maintaining low interest rates.
My guess is the Fed knows rates will rise on their own, thereby creating a competitive environment among lenders.
24/Sep/2021 08:22 AM AUTHOR: Brandon Gum
10 yr yield is breaking out.
This is after they were down 5% on Monday of this week on Evergrande default contagion fears.
Fed met this week. They indicated tampering(?)
Sentiment trader suggested that lots of money managers are not positioned for a move higher in rates and to be careful of your positioning and know...
TLT continues to Wedge out into the Break Down.
Althought the Yield Curve appears to be heading into
an inversion into 2022, the Long End of the Curve remains
in peril... Countdown to Depression is ticking into Q2-Q3 2022.
Fed language and statements are beginning to shift into 2022
indicating they are off balance NOW.
Volaility will increase well ahead of...
TLT is beginning it's terminal phase for the next decline.
We Sold to Open TLT this morning, taking our First Position
at our Target, with further Sells to 150s Set.
Out dated Maturities, we have been suggesting for the past
month are due for a large correction in Yields.
Day to day noise is just that... Noise.
Bond HODLers are convinced they have it figured...
ARKK making a strong name for itself after the Jackson Hole meeting. Are we nearing the breakout point or will we continue to see more waiting and what will ultimately happen with the ARKK index at this juncture? We will see! Good luck traders :)
Today we are witnessing a sharp turn around in Emerging Markets $EEM after the Jackson Hole meeting. $IWM a strong indicator of risk tolerance has seen a sharp move back up into it's middle pivot. Could the continued low rate environment and strong economy be enough to continue the rush into risk-on assets? Keep a close eye on $EWZ though (Brazil ETF in which PAGS...
Q: What has the highest probability of occurring?
Since early July there have been 4 tests of 132.000 resistance.
There is a combination of 2 classic patterns forming at resistance.
The double top, where both tops have been rejected at 132.000, is currently valid.
The head and shoulders, the head consisting of the double top, would need to break the neckline...
Since 2002 when GSCO's Timothy Bitsberger's began his reign as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury.
Fiscal Fundings began to move down the curve to under 30 Months and accumulate a large concentration
within this timeframe.
It placed the burden of Government Finance up on the Short End of the Yield Curve near the region of control
for the Federal Reserve and...
In this 10-minute video we aim to explain what's happening in the bond market, and as a result its implications to the USD, to stocks, the USDJPY and gold. Today's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due for release on Wednesday at 1230 GMT may be already priced in and prices may not display logical textbook reactions.
The Inflation statistics are heavily skewed with the potential for a large
surprise in store for Chasers.
DX, BONDS, FX, YIELDS appear to have the scoop.
Insiders buying Puts in SIZE.
Crude Oil trade for entry 57-61s after this next retracement.
Economic Activity is slowing to a crawl.
FED wants you to BUY STOCKS.
Idea for 10Y Treasury Bond Yields:
I speculate that yields cannot and will not rise significantly until the equity bubble pops.
I think that it will start a wave reaching 0.7 this month.
Why is that?
- There is almost $300 trillion in private sector debt globally.
- Companies used margin debt for share buybacks to boost EPS, creating the illusion of economic...
The yield curve, defined as the difference between US 10-year treasuries yield and US 2-year treasuries yield, is an excellent predictor of the next intraday moves in the crypto market. If it is going higher, it means that long rates are increasing faster than short rates and that translates to strong economic activity and higher inflation. Crypto markets love...