Monthly chart looks like we are topping on the US10Y. Weekly chart tells a different story. I believe the Weekly US10Y is telling us that fed is going to have to be more hawkish with interest rates on 21st September. We will see if i am right.
Over the last few months the 10yr bond market has been developing a long term inverted head and shoulder pattern. This was suggesting a test of the 200dma may be coming up soon and yields would continue to come down. However, today we saw a massive bearish engulfing and a move that almost wiped out last week’s entire move higher. This aggressive move lower in the...
10yr keep an eye
Got a H&S formation, keep an eye if we break down further there are key support areas IF this continues further. However, we are at key support and don't forget month end.
Have a great weekend 🎉
It's been 234 Years since the 10-Year Bond Note deteriorated to this extent.
The United States Treasury's formation was a Year away - 1789.
9 States had ratified the US Constitution.
In order to pay for expenditures during the Revolution, Congress had only
two options: print more money or obtain loans to fund the budget deficit.
Congress became far more...
Not good, not remotely good...
When we see the 10 - 30 break down...
3.65 ends this mess by simply taking all Assets far lower.
We can consolidate for a period of time, however small the duration.
You can't fix silly.
You can't fix stupid.
The Bond Market isn't going to fix anything, it assures ruin.
Buy the Dip hasn't quite worked out.
TLT will head to Sub 52.
You were warned long ago exactly what is happening would.
And explained in no uncertain terms exactly why.
DX back to 125?
FED balance sheet dumping of Junk MBS and USTs.
All we can "Hope" for...
Should their grand plan backfire...
We head right to 3.50 - 3.60 and it's game over for
the Indies for a long, long time.
4% to 6% would create the worst possible outcome.
It's coming, simply "hope" there's more time on the Clock...
Poof, up - down - all around...
2.76 dipped in @ 2.702, good to see.
With the FEDs distro of USTs and MBS well
underway ahead of June 15... gobbling up
Yields aren't working out so well.
Supply Limited thanks to the Fellen over @
the Treasury... is now a catalyst for increased chasing.
Jerry can offload the Junk to Banks desperate for Yields
as they are...
With the Fed turning loose the QT poof-fest ahead of schedule, it's been a bad look to date.
Wednesday was to be the Fierst day according to the Fed, unfortunately, the runoff began
ahead of schedule.
Strike another match for the firestarters.
In 90 days the Rolloff will double,...
It seems like the 10 year treasury yield formed a head and shoulders pattern.
It broke below the neck line on Friday May 20th 2022 which confirms the pattern.
Now we'll have to wait and see if it retests the confluence of resistance around the 2.869% area.
A dip in the 10 year yield may cause a rally in the tech sector and also in the general market.
Equity traders will be focusing on 2 big things today. The action of Bitcoin, and the yield on the 10 year note. The 10 year is already spooking some, as the yield approaches 3 percent again. Bitcoin has to hold right here, or it could test the lows.
News this coming week will impact Markets in a broad fashion.
ZN can see a larger RT to overhead POs as can ZB (30Yr) should
The FED engage in larger YCC interventions, and I believe they will
Macro Data Ahead:
MONDAY, MAY 16
8:30 am Empire state manufacturing index May
TUESDAY, MAY 17
8:30 am Retail sales April -- 0.8%
Ladies and Gentlemen, please take your seats.
(...the music stops)
Okay, thanks for playing. Good luck to all of you!
The investment strategies that have worked for the last 40 years will no longer work. The true bear market is here. This will absolutely 100% NOT be a recession that will be forgotten easily.
It most likely will be a depression via stagflation...