FuturesIntelTM

Macroeconomic: Long Bonds/Stocks, Short Gold

Gold bug's biggest complaint is ALWAYS manipulation of Gold prices... Enter: exhibit 1.


This is the spread between Bonds and Gold , and it has reached maturity and should reverse from here IMHO.

With yields at 3%, banks will enter the bond market en masse, hedging that position with a short on Gold .

With yields finally attractive, the US DX will also continue to rally which will be good for both bonds and stocks.



For Gold , here you can see the EW justification for a return to lower levels as part of a 4th wave (before eventually making new highs).



Then a zoom in on the current breakdown:



I think a short position in Gold is justified, as well as long Stocks. The bottom in Bonds has not yet shown itself but could be any minute or day IMHO.

I think the biggest risk to this macroeconomic analysis is that we will see a deflation across multiple assets as a result of rising rates, which will be apparent if stocks don’t rally and bonds continue lower.
Comment:
Meant to include my Bonds chart...
Comment:
Update 1...

The dollar has continued to rally.

Gold has certainly fallen, and may continue lower next week.

Stocks however, I think ES will target 3800 next week as Fed meeting approaches May 4th I think it is... If they manage to hold here then an ending diagonal would certainly be a plausible end to the largest run ever.

Bonds do look like they have another leg down here...
Comment:
This would honestly be an insanely perfect spot for a double bottom at 4100 on S&P and showcase the market's ability to price-in events ahead of time.

https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data...
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