Liquidity Zones Explained: Where Smart Money GoesMarkets don’t move randomly. Every candle, spike, or reversal happens for a reason and that reason is liquidity.
Liquidity is what fuels price movement. It’s where buy and sell orders are concentrated, and where large players execute positions without showing their hand.
Understanding where liquidity lies gives traders a major advantage, because price doesn’t move to levels by accident. It moves there to fill orders.
Liquidity represents the pool of resting orders waiting to be filled — stop losses, pending buys, or sells.
When price reaches these areas, volume spikes, and the market finds enough counterparties for large players to enter or exit positions.
Liquidity isn’t just numbers on the book. It’s the invisible map of trader behavior:
– Stops above highs (where breakout traders get trapped)
– Stops below lows (where panic selling occurs)
– Consolidation zones (where both sides accumulate orders)
These areas become magnets for price movement.
When you see sharp wicks above or below key levels, it’s often not manipulation — it’s collection.
Smart money drives price into these zones to trigger stop losses and capture liquidity before reversing in the true direction.
The move looks random, but it’s calculated.
The goal is to fill large positions efficiently, using retail orders as exit liquidity.
Instead of chasing price, learn to wait for liquidity grabs.
The simplest method is to mark obvious highs and lows and observe how price reacts when those levels are taken.
If price breaks a key high but fails to continue — and momentum shifts back down — it’s often a sign of a liquidity sweep, not a breakout.
These moments reveal where the real players are positioning themselves.
Trading liquidity is about reaction, not prediction.
Liquidity zones reveal where traders are trapped and where professionals engage.
If you stop focusing on where price is and start paying attention to why it moves there, you’ll see the market with far more clarity.
Trade ideas
1% Bitcoin CME Gap Formed, Futures Market Data AnalysisThis morning, a ~1% gap formed on the Bitcoin CME futures chart.
Given that the gap occurred after a sharp decline, it’s important to consider the possibility of both a gap fill and a retest of recent lows in the short term.
The Coinbase Premium remains in negative territory, though it has shown slight improvement compared to yesterday, suggesting that U.S. spot selling pressure has somewhat eased.
In addition, Open Interest has increased, with data indicating a rise in short positions.
This suggests that selling pressure has been building during the recent decline, which may lead to a period of heightened short-term volatility and consolidation before the gap is fully filled.
Summary:
CME Gap Range: Approximately 1%
Market Structure: Short-term downtrend followed by consolidation
Coinbase Premium: Still negative, but slightly improved
Open Interest: Increasing (inflow of short positions)
📍In the short term, it is crucial to monitor whether the price enters the gap fill zone and retests the recent lows, while maintaining support at 98K, which remains a key short-term level.
Bitcoin: from Pet Rock to Loan CollateralCME: Micro Bitcoin Futures ( CME:MBT1! ) and Micro Ether Futures ( CME:MET1! )
Last week, JPMorgan Chase Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged that crypto, blockchain, and stablecoins are "real”, and “we’ll all use them". This marks a notable shift in tone from the longtime Bitcoin critic.
I can’t help but recall the most notable quotes over the years:
• “Cryptos are decentralized Ponzi scheme”.
• Bitcoin is “fraud” and "worse than tulip bulbs".
• “I’d fire in a second any employee trading Bitcoin”.
• "Bitcoin itself is a hyped-up fraud, it's a pet rock".
Why the big change of heart? It has a lot to do with the sweeping changes in the regulatory landscape. The biggest US bank has to adapt and meet new customer demands.
• On January 10, 2024, the SEC approved Bitcoin ETFs for the first time.
• On May 24, 2024, Ethereum ETFs were also approved by the SEC.
• On November 4, 2024, Donald Trump won the US presidential election.
• On January 21, 2025, the SEC, under a new Chairman, created a Crypto Task Force.
• In May 2025, JPMorgan announced that it would accept shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as loan collateral from its clients.
• On July 18, 2025, US Congress passed the “GENIUS Act”, setting up new regulatory framework for the issuance and use of stablecoins.
• On August 7, 2025, an Executive Order calls for the Department of Labor to re-examine its guidance on alternative assets like cryptocurrencies in 401(k) plans.
• Last week, JPMorgan announced that it would accept Bitcoin and Ethereum as collateral for institutional loans by the end of 2025.
The latest two events could have profound impact. Two butterflies have flapped their wings in Washington, D.C. and at Wall Street. These actions, in my opinion, will unleash the biggest tornado to sweep up the entire crypto world. So far, the market has not put much thought around it. Bitcoin lost 7% since August.
In my trade idea published on August 12th, I discussed how the crypto market would benefit from the new pool of capital infusion from the $8.7 trillion 401(k) plans.
What is Securities-based Lending?
Securities-based lending, also known as portfolio lending, enables borrowing against the value of their marketable securities without having to liquidate them. It is primarily offered to high-net-worth individuals by large financial institutions. How it works:
1. Collateral Assessment: Borrowers pledge their investment portfolios as collateral for the loan. The lender evaluates the portfolio to determine eligible securities and establishes a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio.
2. Loan Amount: The amount available for borrowing is based on LTV. For example, lenders may allow borrowing up to 70% of the value of stocks and more than 90% of certain government securities.
3. Access to Funds: Once the loan is approved, borrowers can access the funds through checks or wire transfers. The loan can be used for almost any purpose.
According to its annual report, JPMorgan has total loans outstanding of $586 billion at the end of 2024. Of which, Banking & Wealth Management accounted for $33B (5.7%).
JPMorgan accepts the following as collateral: Stocks (liquid Large-cap stocks), Bonds (U.S. Treasury securities), Mutual Funds (large mutual funds and ETFs), and Other Securities (Hedge funds, private equity positions, and certain alternative investments).
• In May, JPMorgan started accepting shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as loan collateral. IBIT has net asset value of $87.6B as of October 31st.
• By the end of the year, JPMorgan will accept bitcoin (market cap $2.9 trillion) and Ethereum (market cap $463 billion) as collateral for its securities-based lending.
How big is the securities-based lending market overall?
At a 2024 report, the Federal Reserve estimates the total size of securities-based lending from the Top 100 US banks at $138B by Q1 2024.
Private research (Growth Market Reports) estimates that the global securities-backed lending market size reached $540.2B in 2024. The market is currently expanding at a CAGR of 8.7%, with expectations to attain a value of $1,134.9B by 2033.
This growth is fueled by heightened demand for liquidity solutions, the proliferation of wealth management services, and the rising adoption of flexible credit facilities.
In my opinion, the JPMorgan actions will kick off a trend. As financial assets increasingly become tokenized, the demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum will grow exponentially. Securities-based lending is one of the many uses in mainstream financing.
Unlike the Fed, we can’t print new Bitcoin and Ethereum at will. New demands, from 401k and loan collateral alike, could reach hundreds of billions. This will be the catalyst to lift up the digital gold and silver to the next level.
Riding the ride with Micro Bitcoin and ETF Futures
Traders who share the bullish view on Bitcoins and Ethereum could explore CME Micro Bitcoin Futures ( PSE:MBT ) and Micro ETH Futures ( NYSE:MET ).
The MBT contract has a notional value of 0.10 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR). On October 31st, the December contract (MBTZ5) is settled at $110,910. Each contract has a notional value of $11,091. To buy or sell one contract, CME Group requires an initial margin of $2,662. By design, this futures contract has a built-in leverage of 4.2-to-1. When bitcoin goes up, futures positions could enhance the return by four times compared to spot bitcoin positions.
MET has a notional value of 0.10 ETH. On October 31st, the December contract (METZ5) is settled at $3,932.5, putting the contract value at $393.25. The initial margin is $126, implying a built-in leverage of 3.1-to-1. When Ethereum goes up, futures positions could enhance the return by three times compared to spot ETH positions.
What happens if Bitcoin or Ethereum drops? For price protection, traders could enter a buy order with a stoploss. For example:
• A long MBTZ5 order at 110,910 with a stoploss of 95,000 limits the maximum loss to $1,591 (= (110910-95000) x 0.1).
• A long METZ5 order at 3,935.5 with a stoploss of 3,500 limits the maximum loss to $43.25 (= (3932.5-3500) x 0.1).
In addition to margin (leverage) and stoploss (loss protection), both Micro Bitcoin and Micro ETH have a daily price limit at 10%. This feature is particularly helpful when the market is panicky. Price Limit or Circuit slows down the irrational price movements until cooler heads prevail.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Bitcoin Technical Breakdown: Bearish Signals BuildingToday we’re taking a closer look at Bitcoin, which is showing increasingly negative technical signals across multiple timeframes. Let’s break it down:
Daily Chart: Confirmed Downtrend
• Bitcoin is now technically in a down move, defined by a sequence of lower reaction highs and lower reaction lows—a structure that’s been in place since early October.
• Price has closed below the 200-day moving average (turquoise line), a key long-term support level. This breakdown adds weight to the bearish bias.
• The Ichimoku Cloud setup confirms a sell signal:
o Lagging line is below both the cloud and price.
o Price remains below a red cloud, reinforcing bearish momentum.
• The RSI is relatively low, suggesting weak bullish strength. Any short-term bounces are likely to be capped by the top of the cloud, which aligns with the recent high near 16,570.
Weekly Chart: Critical Support in Play
• The 55-week moving average has provided strong support since early 2023, with multiple successful tests.
• However, price is now threatening to break below this level again. A weekly close below 101,337 would be a significant bearish development.
• If confirmed, this could open the door to a deeper retracement toward the midpoint of the range, around the 85,000=80,000 area.
Summary
Bitcoin is currently in a confirmed downtrend, trading below key moving averages and cloud resistance. Unless bulls reclaim these levels, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Watch Friday’s weekly close closely—it could be pivotal.
Disclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
Bitcoin Bounce Underway, But Bears May Not Be Done YetMy initial 100k downside target has been reached. While we’re seeing the almost obligatory bounce from a key level, Bitcoin could still head towards 90k. I take a fresh look at Bitcoin futures and their correlation with Wall Street.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index
The Double Bottom Trap That Traders Might Miss1. The Comfort Zone of Classic Patterns
Few formations attract traders’ attention like a double bottom. It’s one of those timeless chart patterns that promise hope after a long decline—a visual story of selling exhaustion followed by a bullish reversal.
But markets rarely reward what’s obvious. In futures trading, especially when examining instruments like Bitcoin Futures (BTC) and Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT), patterns are only half the story. What truly moves price isn’t just the shape on the chart—it’s the order flow behind it.
That’s where understanding FO (Filled Orders) and UFO (UnFilled Orders) becomes essential. Both represent past and potential liquidity imbalances, and reading their relationship can transform how traders interpret “classic” setups.
2. The Bitcoin Setup: A Tale of Two Bottoms
The current BTC daily chart paints what seems like a textbook double bottom. Two price troughs form near the same horizontal area around $104,000, setting up the typical “W” shape many traders see as a bullish reversal pattern.
However, when we dig deeper into the order flow structure, the illusion begins to fade.
A FO Support level exists near $103,860, meaning that this area previously attracted enough buyers to halt a decline—but those orders have already been filled and we know this given the fact that price turned at that price level before.
The next UFO Support zone sits much lower, around $95,640. That’s where unfilled buy orders are expected to remain waiting, untouched.
This distinction matters. While FO zones mark previous turning points, UFO zones highlight potential turning points that still contain resting liquidity. In simple terms, FO areas represent “used energy,” while UFO areas represent “stored energy.”
3. FO vs. UFO – The Order Flow Reality Check
Let’s define these two concepts with precision:
FO (Filled Orders): Price zones where significant buying or selling already occurred. These levels once reversed price, but because those orders were executed, fewer remain to defend the level again.
UFO (UnFilled Orders): Price zones containing pending buy or sell orders not yet triggered. They represent areas of fresh imbalance and therefore carry a higher probability of influencing future price moves.
In our Bitcoin case, the FO Support around $103,860 has done its job already—it stopped price before. But now, the unfilled buying interest lies lower, implying that the market may need to travel down to reach fresh demand at $95,640.
On the other side, UFO Resistance hovers near $112,410, enveloping the top of the double bottom structure. Should the price rebound toward that level, sellers waiting there could re-enter the scene, potentially capping any bullish recovery.
The conclusion? This pattern isn’t as bullish as it looks.
4. When Bullish Shapes Hide Bearish Probabilities
Most traders spot the double bottom and immediately think “trend reversal.” Yet, the distance between FO and UFO levels tells a more subtle story.
Since FO Support levels carry reduced strength after being tested, they’re more likely to break than hold. In this context, the probability favors a downside continuation rather than an immediate bounce.
If price breaches $103,860, the next probable destination becomes the UFO Support at $95,640. Only then, after reaching that pocket of unfilled demand, might a significant rebound have higher odds.
It’s a reminder that technical patterns, while valuable, must always be filtered through liquidity context. A pattern without order flow validation is like reading the market’s outline without its story.
5. Quantitative Insight: A Probabilistic Lens
Think of this in probabilistic terms:
When FO zones sit above UFO zones, the market often continues toward the unfilled liquidity.
When UFO zones lie closer to current price, reversals occur faster because demand (or supply) is still waiting to be executed.
In our example, BTC shows a larger gap between FO and UFO support levels, signaling lower immediate reversal odds. The chart may appear bullish, but the underlying order flow distribution points to weakness first, strength later.
This is not a prediction—it’s an observation of potential. It allows traders to structure their expectations based on where fresh participation is more likely to emerge.
6. Risk Management: Navigating the Trap
For traders considering setups around this structure, risk management is crucial.
Entry awareness: Avoid entering long positions purely because a double bottom “looks bullish.” Consider waiting for evidence of unfilled demand being triggered (confirmation at or near UFO Support).
Stop-loss placement: Stops below FO Support can easily be hunted in liquidity sweeps; better to align risk control with genuine unfilled demand areas.
Reward-to-risk thinking: A test of the UFO Support near $95,640 could later offer a more favorable upside-to-downside ratio than buying prematurely at $104,000.
Remember, pattern-based entries without liquidity confirmation often carry poor asymmetry—small upside with large downside risk.
7. Futures Structure and Margin Awareness
Both BTC and MBT represent Bitcoin exposure via futures contracts, but their sizing differs dramatically.
BTC equals 5 Bitcoin per contract, making it suitable for larger, institutional players. (1 Tick = 5 = $25. Required Margin = $132,500)
MBT, the Micro Bitcoin Futures, equals 0.1 Bitcoin per contract, offering flexibility for smaller accounts and finer position scaling. (1 Tick = 5 = $0.50. Required Margin = $2,600)
Understanding margin requirements is essential—these products are leveraged instruments, and small price changes can result in large percentage gains or losses.
8. Key Takeaway: The Hidden Lesson
This entire setup illustrates a powerful educational point:
Chart patterns may draw the eye, but order flow tells the truth.
The double bottom may invite buyers, but the imbalance between FO and UFO zones exposes an underlying weakness. Traders who rely solely on visual patterns may walk straight into a trap. Those who align patterns with liquidity insights, however, read the market at a deeper level.
In the current context, BTC and MBT might need to visit lower support levels before finding true stability. Watching how price behaves around these unfilled order zones will reveal whether this double bottom turns into a lasting floor—or just another false start.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
BTC CME CHART INDICATES A BEARISH NOVEMBER GOING BELOW 100K BTC has two bullish CME gap unfilled, very possible the banks and governments want to liquidated traders, but the only way to the bulls below the market has to go the market will have to go back below 100K,The easy algo and other technicals indicate the the market may push to the the all time high and creates and new or push south to 93k or 86K before it goes to the projected 132K
Why I'm Suspicious Of This Bitcoin BounceThe rebound in bitcoin I warned about last week has come to fruition. Yet despite its recovery above the 200-day EMA, I remain bearish on the higher timeframes. Looking at bitcoin futures, I explain why I think bears are lurking above and may be happy to fade into rallies towards 120k.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com
Spotting Inefficiencies in an Efficient MarketMarket Efficiency Theory;
Core Idea: Stock prices already include and reflect all available information.
Implication: It is very difficult (if not impossible) to consistently outperform the market because prices adjust quickly when new information appears.
Note: Markets are not perfectly efficient all the time — they can become inefficient in the short term due to emotions, news, or sudden events.
⚙️ Three Forms of Efficiency
Weak Form Efficiency
All past market prices and data are already reflected in current prices.
Therefore, technical analysis (chart patterns, trends) is useless because it can’t predict future prices.
Semi-Strong Form Efficiency
All public information (both technical and fundamental) is reflected in prices.
This means fundamental analysis (using financial statements, news, etc.) is also useless for gaining an edge.
Strong Form Efficiency
All information, including insider or private information, is already priced in.
So, no one can consistently outperform the market — not even insiders.
💡 Why Inefficiencies Exist
Markets aren’t perfectly efficient because human behavior and emotions often cause mispricing:
Investor emotions — Fear and greed can drive irrational buying or selling.
Market sentiment extremes — Overconfidence or panic can push prices too far.
Short-term behavioral mistakes — Herd mentality or cognitive biases lead to temporary inefficiencies.
🔍 Finding Inefficiencies
Although hard, traders can sometimes find and exploit short-lived inefficiencies:
Market sentiment indicators like VIX (volatility index) or put/call ratios signal extremes.
Seasonal trading strategies such as “Sell in May” patterns or year-end rallies.
Time arbitrage — taking advantage of short-term market overreactions.
Exploiting short squeezes when traders betting against a stock are forced to buy back.
⚠️ Difficult Markets for Traders
Some markets are naturally harder to trade efficiently:
Forex market: Highly competitive with huge volumes and professional players.
Commodities market: Often volatile and erratic due to unpredictable factors like weather, geopolitics, or demand shocks.
Conclusion:
Is it possible to find inefficiencies in the markets?
The markets are probably to a certain degree efficient, but we believe you can make good and consistent returns by using the right approach – which is to use empirical and quantified data for short-term strategies and by using common sense. Moreover, we believe the best place to start is in the stock market.
The markets are somewhat inefficient because of human folly. This is unlikely to change, which is good for the rational trader and investor. So the correct answer about inefficiencies is this: Yes, it’s possible to find inefficiencies in the markets.
Technical Analysis – Bitcoin CME Futures (BTC1!)Technical Analysis – Bitcoin CME Futures (BTC1!)
Date: October 27, 2025 | Timeframe: Weekly | Exchange: CME Group
1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
Bitcoin CME Futures are trading at $115,090, up +3.69% for the week.
After nearly six months of consolidation between $100,000–$115,000, the current setup indicates an ascending triangle formation nearing completion — signaling a potential major breakout toward the end of Q4 2025.
The medium-to-long-term trend remains firmly bullish, supported by a strong accumulation base following the uptrend from the $38,000 low (June 2023).
Technical upside targets after a confirmed breakout: $127,300 → $141,800 → $156,700.
2. Key Technical Price Levels
Resistance: 127,300 – 141,800 – 156,700
Support: 113,500 – 105,000 – 95,800
3. Detailed Technical Analysis
(1) Short-Term Trend
The third bull-flag pattern since 2023 is developing. Bitcoin has closed above its 20-week EMA for 11 consecutive weeks, confirming structural bullish momentum. Short-term bias: Uptrend continuation, targeting $127,300 over the next 3–5 weeks.
(2) Volume Analysis
CME trading volume rose 22% versus the 4-week average. Institutional positioning (COT Report) shows net long positions up by 8,500 contracts — the highest level since March 2024.
(3) Elliott Wave Structure
Wave 1: 38,000 → 77,500
Wave 2: Correction to 63,000
Wave 3: Expansion to 118,000
Wave 4: Sideways consolidation (100,000–115,000)
Wave 5: Target zone 140,000–156,000
(4) Momentum Confirmation
RS vs S&P 500 continues to strengthen. MVRV Z-score: +1.95 — still below overbought territory, allowing an additional 25–30% upside.
4. VNC– Strategic Commentary
Market Context
The Bitcoin market is underpinned by three structural drivers:
- Strong ETF Inflows: According to Bloomberg ETF Flow (Oct 24), spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.8 billion in net inflows over 10 days, the highest since their early 2024 launch.
- Monetary Easing by the Fed: The Federal Reserve has hinted at a 0.25% rate cut in December 2025, reigniting risk-on sentiment in digital assets.
- Tight Supply Dynamics: Post-2024 Halving, block issuance fell 8%, while whale cold storage activity hit a 14-month high (Glassnode, Oct 25).
- Key Market Developments (Oct 12–27, 2025): - CME Group (Oct 25): Bitcoin futures open interest hit $7.42B, up 9% WoW. Bloomberg (Oct 23): Fed expected to cut rates in December; crypto assets responded positively. CoinDesk (Oct 22): Exchange stablecoin ratios rose 10%, signaling incoming liquidity. Glassnode (Oct 20): Wallets holding over 10,000 BTC increased 3.4%, showing institutional accumulation. Reuters (Oct 19): Tech investment funds are reallocating 16% of new risk-on capital back into crypto.
VNC Intelligence Assessment (BI View)
Short-Term (2–3 weeks): Sideways range $112,000–$127,000, awaiting breakout confirmation.
Medium-Term (4–8 weeks): Upside target $141,800, driven by sustained ETF inflows.
Risks: Short-term USD rebound or ETF outflows if the Fed delays rate cuts.
5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Bullish Scenario (Preferred):
Entry: 113,500 – 115,000
Targets: TP1 127,300 | TP2 141,800 | TP3 156,700
Stop-Loss: 107,000
Probability: 80%
Rationale: Ascending triangle breakout supported by ETF inflows and institutional accumulation.
Bearish Counter-Scenario (Short-Term Profit Taking):
Entry: 156,000 – 157,000 (upon hitting projected wave 5 top)
Target: 141,800
Stop-Loss: 160,000
Probability: 20%
Rationale: Short-term profit-taking at Fibonacci extension resistance.
VNC Intelligence Summary: Bitcoin remains in a strong macro uptrend, supported by robust institutional participation and easing macroeconomic conditions.The ascending triangle pattern signals a potential mid-Q4 breakout, with ETF inflows acting as the key catalyst for price acceleration toward $140,000–$150,000.
Bitcoin Testing the $115K Level: What Traders Need to KnowBitcoin has been forming a complex trading range. Over the past three months, selling has improved. However, some short-term demand has appeared. The test of the $115K level will be key in revealing the quality of this latest buying.
After the deterioration by selling, there has been some preferred action. The question now is how the price comes to certain levels.
It all started with a specific bar that had some ease of movement over one, two periods. This led to improvement by selling, which was seen over the previous swing down. Off the top, there is again improvement in selling. This improvement is with limited result.
If price stays above a certain level, the question becomes: could we come back to specific levels? At this point, the market is retesting something.
The behavior at these levels will be important in determining the next move for Bitcoin and whether the quality of recent buying can hold up at the $115K test.
Leverage is a Double-edged SwordCME: Micro Bitcoin Futures ( CME:MBT1! )
On October 6th, Bitcoin spot price hit a new all-time-high record at $126,198.07. The King of Crypto seemed unstoppable. Just four days later, President Trump escalated trade tension with China by threatening 100% additional tariff. This sparked a broad market selloff. The crypto market was among the hardest hits. Bitcoin plunged 11% for the day.
A post on X by The Kobeissi Letter captured the latest crypto crash:
"It's official: Crypto just saw its LARGEST liquidation event in history with 1.6 MILLION traders liquidated. Over $19 BILLION worth of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in 24 hours, 9 TIMES the previous record." It notes it marked a single-day swing in Bitcoin's market cap of a $380 billion.
Leverage: A Double-Edged Sword
Leverage allows investors to amplify returns by borrowing funds, but it also magnifies losses, as seen in this crash. In crypto, traders often use 10x, 50x, or even 100x leverage, controlling large positions with very minimal capital. It was this overexposure, fueled by excessive leverage, that led to the $19 billion liquidation.
Margin trading can boost gains, but risks margin calls if prices suddenly drop, forcing asset sales at a loss. The risks of leverage are stark: a mere 2% price drop on a 50x leveraged BTC position wipes out 100% of the initial investment. Volatility, already high in crypto, makes leverage treacherous. A sudden drop of 5%, very common in cryptos, will overblow a $100K investment into negative balance of $150K for the same account.
While there are no regulatory limits in the U.S. restrict retail crypto leverage, few exchanges offer it. On the other hand, offshore crypto trading platforms offer much higher ratios, increasing exposure. Without stop-loss orders or risk management, leverage can turn a manageable dip into a total loss. Some crypto platforms offer Derivatives contracts. The name is often misleading. Many so-called “Exchanges” are not registered nor regulated by financial regulatory authorities. These contracts do not have the financial safeguard in place to protect the investors.
Investing in bitcoin is like riding a roller coaster. Taking on high leverage will be like not wearing a seatbelt. You could get thrown out of the ride every time it takes a turn.
Protecting your Bitcoin with CME Futures
As of October 18th, Bitcoin is up nearly 12% year-to-date. However, the gain was 32% when Bitcoin hit ATH. In less than two weeks, we have witnessed an 18% drawdown.
Despite the crash, Bitcoin’s long-term potential remains high. Its fixed supply of 21-million-coin and growing institutional adoption through exchange-traded funds and corporate treasuries support its "digital gold" narrative. Traders who are bullish on bitcoin could explore CME Micro Bitcoin Futures ( PSE:MBT ).
The MBT contract has a notional value of 0.10 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR). On October 18th, the December contract (MBTZ5) is quoted at $108,495. Each contract has a notional value of $10,850. To buy or sell one contract, CME Group requires an initial margin of $2,590. By design, this futures contract has a built-in leverage of 4.2-to-1. When bitcoin goes up, futures positions could enhance the return by four times compared to spot bitcoin positions.
What happens if bitcoin drops? For price protection, traders could enter a buy order with a stoploss. For example, a long order at 108,495 with a stoploss of 100,000 limit the maximum loss to $849.5 (= (108495-100000) x 0.1).
In addition to margin (leverage) and stoploss (loss protection), Micro Bitcoin has a daily price limit at 10%. This feature is particularly helpful when the market is panicky. Price Limit or Circuit slows down the irrational price movements until cooler heads prevail.
To recap:
1) Always invest in Exchanges regulated by a national financial regulatory authority.
2) Employing bitcoin futures and options could enhance investment return.
3) Use stop loss to set maximum loss at a level within your tolerance.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Bitcoin Futures ChannelBitcoin Futures Chart
- We have been respecting this channel all bull run and have once again bounced of thes support lines
- I think we have one more run up to the next upper line, or the one after that before the bull run tops
- The bull run will be over when we break the lowest trendline
Chart Pattern Analysis Of BTC.
K6 and K7 verified a fake up candle of K5,
The market here turned to be more neutral.
If K8 keep expanding down to close below the neckline and the uptrend line,
The three years bull market will be terminated here.
If not,
The market will consolidate around 108K area for more weeks.
Considered K7 still failed to close below the uptrend line,
And K7 is weak than K5,
I am expecting a weak rebound around the neck line.
I will try to buy MSTZ to short it if my expectations verified by K8.
BTC FUTURES. CRYPTO PRIDE GOES 'COALESCE' INTO SOMETHING BIGGER BTC faces negative fundamental and technical perspectives due to escalating US-China tensions, which have sharply dampened investor sentiment and triggered risk-off behavior across global markets.
Fundamentally, renewed hostilities between the world's two largest economies - including tariff threats from President Trump and Chinese retaliation - have caused investors to withdraw from risk assets like Bitcoin, preferring safety and liquidity.
This has led to billions in ETF outflows and widespread selling pressure, undermining BTC's safe-haven narrative and reinforcing its correlation with traditional market stress.
Technically, BTC has broken key support levels, dropping below $112,000-$111,200 and failing to sustain its recent rebounds. The weakening price structure is marked by lower highs and persistent downward momentum, with liquidation of leveraged positions exacerbating volatility.
Market indicators, such as declining funding rates and falling perpetual markets, signal cautious investor behavior and further downside risks.
Retail and institutional withdrawal, coupled with geopolitical uncertainty, raise the likelihood of more pronounced corrections, with some analysts warning of a potential sub-$100,000 move if tensions intensify further.
In short, BTC Futures goes to break 6-month long recovery uptrend (came from mid-April crater), that gives a resonable opportunity to further decline.
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Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team






















